Is game over dy la. My question is during winding up which will take up to 18 months, do we still get interest paid during winding up period? If pay than ok la
big block of money flew in to warrant is true, but price pluged too. so.... if the news is true, will see the price straight to q sell @ 0.5c.... all of us have no change to sell.... good bye my money.
Retail Market Monitor MONEY TALK Sona Petroleum (SONA MK) Decent Chance Of Gains From Both Outcomes Friday, 22 April 2016 BUY (Initiate Coverage) Share Price Target Price Upside COMPANY DESCRIPTION Sona will seek shareholders’ approval for the purchase of the Stag Oilfield (QA) on 26 April. If the QA is not approved, shareholders can expect proceeds of a maximum of RM0.48/share (excluding various costs). If the QA is approved, the target price would be RM0.54/share if oil prices recover to US$80/bbl beyond 2020. Assuming no risks to both assumptions, shareholders may stand to be winners in both outcomes. The asset will have no upside if the long-term oil price is <US$70/bbl. Initiate coverage with BUY and target price of RM0.54. INVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS RM0.44 RM0.54 +24.0% MALAYSIA Sona Petroleum is a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC)
"Its reliably learnt that shareholders have rejected Sona Petroleum's proposal to acquire a Stag Oilfield in Australia for US $50 million."
I don't really trust the report because the proposal is to acquire the oilfield for US$ 25 million and not US$ 50 million as reported. If US$50 million, of course it will be rejected.
Mystock118 isn't reliable in such an important reporting, so how can I rely on its so called reliable source? Should I laugh it off now?
From the reports of research houses, they indicate that, in the event of Sona's QA approval, Sona shares have a good upside from current price. UOB: BUY NPV RM0.54 (> RM0.68 if long-term oil prices > US$90) MIDF: DCF RM0.53 / PBV RM0.56 (Hart & 2C resources not included in valuation) RHB: DCF Base RM0.48 / Best RM0.80. (conservative oil price assumptions used)
for vote yes... look for future... share price up + capital repayment + hold some warrant
for vote no.. want share repurchase at 0.485 immediately. gurantee gain.
if qa fail... all need to wait more than 6 month .. appoint liquidator, close file with lhdn and ssm.. maybe money struck more than 6 month ... wa holder became toilet paper...
The research houses' finding on the valuations of Sona shares when Sona's Stag QA is approved, further support my change of strategy from short-term yield investor to long-term growth & yield investor (better known as Value Investing).
The 90% cashback, to a Value Investor, was a Margin of Safety to have when investing in Sona, especially in the proposed Salamander QA period when oil prices were >US$100 and then started to drop in 2014/2015. The 90% cashback back then was a valuable tool
For the Stag,QA, with the consensus opined that Brent oil prices having bottomed out in 2016, long term growth investors of Sona can take the opportunity to ride on the strengthening of Brent + Stag premium prices, fundamentally Buy-Low Sell-High
Value investors will be able to benefit from Sona's cash flow allocated for the "3rd basket", namely the expected yield from regular dividends which a norm of upstream O&G co.
Value investors welcome the sweetened capital repayment, as we get to lower our Sona entry price. From a corp governance perspective, the return of excess cash to shareholders (excl management) is positively viewed by Value investors.
Therefore, from all my comments and as a Value investor, I will vote to APPROVE the Sona's Stag QA.
"Be Greedy when Others are Fearful. Be Fearful when Others are Greedy"
Retail Market Monitor MONEY TALK Sona Petroleum (SONA MK) Decent Chance Of Gains From Both Outcomes Sona will seek shareholders’ approval for the purchase of the Stag Oilfield (QA) on 26 April. If the QA is not approved, shareholders can expect proceeds of a maximum of RM0.48/share (excluding various costs). If the QA is approved, the target price would be RM0.54/share if oil prices recover to US$80/bbl beyond 2020. Assuming no risks to both assumptions, shareholders may stand to be winners in both outcomes. The asset will have no upside if the long-term oil price is <US$70/bbl. Initiate coverage with BUY and target price of RM0.54.
INVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS
Potential for shareholders to be winners in both outcomes. Sona Petroleum (Sona) will seek shareholders’ approval for the qualifying acquisition (QA) on 26 April at a purchase price of US$25m. Independent reserve consultants Gaffney, Cline & Associates (GCA) deem the purchase consideration fair at a cost (2P reserves) of about US$1.5/boe, based on a 2P reserve estimate of 17.6MMboe. This is a cash generating asset that has a technical remaining field life of 21 years. Based on the assumptions on both outcomes detailed below, shareholders can stand a decent chance of seeing investment gains.
Max cash valueofRM0.48/sharefordistribution.AssumingtheQAisnotapproved, shareholders (ex-management which owns 20% stake) can expect a distribution of a maximum of RM0.48/share (9% upside), which reflects the current cash trust amounts and is based on the assumption of 4% interest earned for one more year. The uncertainty lies in the time that the company will take to liquidate and this might take 6- 12 months. Costs that may reduce the max proceeds are: a) running operating costs, b) liquidation and distribution-related expenses, and c) tax payable on new interest earned on the trust funds.
Plans and scenarios: If the QA is approved. After the US$25m purchase, Sona will carry out a two-phase infill development plan (total US$110m) by 1Q17 and 2Q18 respectively, which will enhance long-term production rates by 35% from 4,600bpd of oil in 2016. The cash trust amounts and the Stag’s operating cash flows are expected to be sufficient to fund the infill development. They do not expect to take up borrowings. If shareholders approve the QA, the asset could be value-accretive in the long term against the backdrop of a prolonged oil price recovery, and/or if cost reductions are greater than expected (please see below). In this case, we have detailed DCFs based on oil price scenarios, valuing production up till 2028 – the last year expected for commercial production of 2P reserves, according to GCA. Target prices from a scenario-based analysis. Assuming the QA is approved and oil prices increase progressively to US$80/bbl by 2020 amid minor cost reductions, our target price for
Sona would be RM0.54 (including RM0.08 capital repayments, 24% upside). On the flip side, a depressed oil price environment (long-term oil prices <US$70/bbl) will remove the asset’s upside from the current share price. Stag’s net present value (NPV) breakeven is US$45/bbl. Note that our valuation is more bullish vs the consultant’s valuation, as they have assumed abandonment costs after 2028.
KEY FINANCIALS Year to 31 Dec (RMm) 2014 2015 Net Turnover - - EBITDA (23.5) (11.8) Operating Profit Net Profit (Reported/Actual) Net Profit (Adjusted)* EPS (sen) PE (x) P/B (x) Net Dividend Yield (%) Net Margin (%) Net Debt/(Cash) to Equity (x) ROE (%) Consensus Net Profit UOBKH/Consensus (x) - - (28.5) (17.5) (28.5) (17.5) (0.02) (0.01) - - 18.00 46.60 - - - - - - - - - - * No net profit forecasts pending the outcome of the QA. If QA is approved, net profits for 2015/2016F could be RM5-12m Source: Sona, Bloomberg, UOB Kay Hian - - www.utrade.com.my 1
no needs to wait the results laa........be realistic ...signs shows that people already knew what is expected from tomorrows's voting......once again...to warrants holders...beware....
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
callme777
1,586 posts
Posted by callme777 > 2016-04-22 16:54 | Report Abuse
Is game over dy la. My question is during winding up which will take up to 18 months, do we still get interest paid during winding up period? If pay than ok la