relax.. we all small bilis... will not effect voting percentage ... even hold e few million unit.. the main concern is big investor / cornerstone. .
at the current price.. yes we can get guarantee profit but if pass.. there are more opportunity to up or intact news investor.... especially for wa to gain more than 50% I think...
share price will adjust at exdate for 8cent ...but if pass..maybe share price will up... if today already up...better sell and no need to egm...
1) vote no and get back 48.5sens 9% yield(guaranteed!!)
2) vote yes and assuming buy now at 44.5 and get back 8sens from capital repayment...NOT yield but STILL CASH of 18%
I still CANT see the logic in going for option 1.
honestly with option 2, u still have a chance.
with 8sens cashback with reduced shareholders equity(share price drops to 37sens) there are always chances of share price rising from 37sens. this is not guaranteed however. at least u still OWN the share n may get dividends in the future. dun like then sell lo.
thats why in investing all are subjective. i honestly doubt many investors care WHERE their cashback comes from. cash is cash. you receive it. that is good. There are also companies borrowing to give dividends....how do u relate to that? petronas dip into their shareholders equity to pay extra to our Government becoz their earnings are not enuf. how?
Yield, u invest RM100, you get back RM109 (guaranteed)
Capital repayment, you invest RM100, you get back RM18 and your share left RM82(open to risk).
Dividend is another thing derived from earnings. You invest RM100 as shareholder, company earn rm10, they pay you rm3 as dividend. Share price adjusted to via market force. *Petronas case is unique as it is highly political to borrow money for paying dividend. Usually 99% of the times no earnings, no dividend.
I dont feel confident about this. Looks like the Promoter doesn't understand how the market works. He seems to think that he has a damn good asset (his point of view) therefore everyone will vote in favour of the QA. Brother, if the share price doesn't start to show some confidence, you can kiss your QA goodbye.
nobody will goring the stock when oil price is low when price is above usd50, I think the syndicate and fund will goring for the time being, don't harap ya
Step 1: The completion of the Proposed Acquisition -- Comment: If the Proposed Acquisition is not approved and completed, there will be no capital repayment.
Step 2: The formal approval of the Board -- Comment: The Board has already been briefed and is supportive.
Step 3: Approval of the SC for the proposed exemption under Paragraph 16.1 of Practice Note 9 of the Malaysian Code on Take-Overs and Mergers to Platinum Autumn from the obligation to undertake a mandatory take-over offer on Sona Petroleum (“Proposed Exemption”), if required. -- Comment: This application is only in the event that the conversion of Management’s warrants increases Management shareholdings to above 33%, an application will be made to SC to exempt Platinum Autumn from having to undertake a mandatory take-over offer. This exemption is provided for under Practice Note 9 of the Code
Step 4: The approval of shareholders of Sona Petroleum at an EGM to be convened for the Proposed Revised Capital Repayment and if required, the Proposed Exemption, as soon as practicable after the approval of the Proposed Acquisition -- Comment: As required by the Companies Act, a separate circular will be issued and a further EGM will be convened for this purpose.
Step 5: Approval by the High Court -- Comment: Application for capital reduction
The financing needed for the capital repayment is in place.
Hi @T1T4N (W.r.t. your explanation to @coolinvestor:) and @Wong Heam Kiew,
As explained in our announcement, the capital repayment will be funded from internal funds (depending on amount of share repurchase) and/or conversion of warrants held by Management. The net assets of 38 sen per share is a pro forma number and for the purpose of the circular, is calculated based on the historical audited balance sheet as at 30th September 2015
As illustrated in Section 2.5.2 of our announcement, the pro forma net assets per share will reduce from 38 to 31 sen if there is no share repurchase and from 35 to 30 sen if there is 25% share repurchase. The reduction is due to the repayment of 8 sen to shareholders.
However, note that the pro forma net asset is based on our historical balance sheet. The actual net assets of Sona may change with time depending on how the company is performing.
When Sona takes over the asset, which is a production asset, the asset is expected to generate profitability which will contribute to our net assets. In addition, it is the intention of Sona to reduce operating costs and implement Infill Development to increase production which should increase profits and the net assets further. An increase in oil prices going forward, which is the consensus of most analysts, is also expected to have the same effect.
In summary shareholders will receive 8 sen per share and at the same time stand to enjoy possible upsides to the share value should the company grow in value and profitability.
Our share price is dependent not only on fundamentals such as our financial performance and position, but also other factors such as market sentiment and investors’ attitude and expectations.
Whilst we do not have control over the external factors, we believe the company’s fundamentals and performance will be strong because of the following:
1. The asset is a producing asset and is generating cash and profitability 2. Plans are in place to reduce operating cost and to implement infill development to increase current total production by about 35% and both of these will further increase cash generation and profitability 3. There is general consensus among analysts that oil prices will increase going forward 4. There is capacity to further expand the assets of the company as the balance sheet with no gearing has capacity for borrowings and there is the conversion of warrants which will make available to the company considerable amount of cash.
Our view is that historical net assets or book value may not be best valuation methodology for O&G companies. An O&G company can trade above or below its book value and the price-to-book ratio for O&G companies are wide-ranging.
It is our view that the key performance and value drivers of O&G companies are in its production, reserves and how fast new reserves can be found to replenish the depletion (reserve-replacement ratio*).
In the case of Sona, Stag is producing about 4,000 barrels of oil a day, with 13.3 MMstb and 17.2 MMstb of 1P and 2P reserves respectively. Stag will also have opportunities to achieve a replacement ratio greater than 100% through development of Stag’s 2C contingent resources (estimated by GCA at 4.9 MMbo) and progressing the Hart exploratory prospect (estimated by GCA at 6.4 MMbo Prospective Resources). There is also the likelihood that as we progress these developments, the contingent and prospective resources may increase.
In addition, supported by our strong balance sheet and fund-raising capabilities through borrowings, conversion of warrants or equity, there can be further growth in our proven reserves through future acquisitions / expansion of other O&G assets.
Note: * The reserve-replacement ratio measures the amount of proved reserves added to a company's reserve base during the year relative to the amount of oil and gas produced. During stable demand condition environments, a company's reserve replacement ratio must be at least 100% for the company to stay in business long-term; otherwise, it will eventually run out of oil. The ratio of a top performing company will be greater than 100%.
The logic is simple: buy up to 30 million shares, the price will go up to abt 48c. it will cost more or less RM15mil. Most shareholders will vote in favour, as the price is higher than the 475c they will get if the QA is not approved plus the 18 mth (at least) wait. If the QA is approved promoters shares will be worth in excess of RM120 mil. A Primary 1 kid can do the math for you. And oil prices are not tanking, are they?
I appreciate your long writeup with technical explanations.
Let's talk about market sentiment, human emotions.
With 44sen on mother share now, Do you think majority shareholders will want a GUARANTEED 48.5sen (10% gain yield)? Or a Potential upside (which also opens to potential DOWNSIDE) after 8sen capital reduction?
with the markets, everyone can talk about heaven n earth n back to hell with so many factors influencing the markets.
and you are just being deliberate on just 1 particular subject.
this is of course entirely your opinion but please also be impartial n fair because surely the probability of the share being on the upside is also possible after approval of the QA?
your human emotions is just ONE factor but its NOT the only factor. there are also those who are not easily emotional and are opportunistic.
I'm just a normal human who have access to other 1000+ listed counters in Bursa Malaysia, from 1sen to several Ten Ringgits. (ONLINE TRADING PLATFORM)
I respect the management on all the hardwork pour into the company for this 3 years. No doubt about it. Dato Sri, Tan Sri, Professionals, Experts, you guys deserved all the fame, no problem.
But to me as a normal shareholder, what I see most is my own pocket, profit of my shares. That's all.
Everything BOILS DOWN TO this: "10% guarantee yield" vs "Potential upside after capital reduction of 8sen"
Your choice. Good luck and see you all at AGM Grand Hyatt.
Actually those who vote no may actually buy back again shld the qa passes n the oil price going up. There's no really right or wrong. Just how u decide at the moment in time. Lol
those who groaning and moaning everyday about share price and with intention to vote No
Pls check your total shareholding whether substantial enough to put the QA in jeopardy, whether individually or in totallity added to 2%??, if the answer is NO, pls just keep quiet and submit your repurchase form la
During last month EGM, one elderly couple who sat beside me were making a little noises holding their Repurchase Forms and their shares indicated in their forms were 3,000 each.
Its the total shares that counts and not quantity of Repurchase Forms. So Siva Kumar & his friends with 20% stake in favour does count ya
some people only have 500unit shares in direct account so he can go to egm... but at nominees acc.. have more 2 mill shares.... of course bank will attend as proxy
If the promoter, who is the one who negotiated the deal and is expected to run the company after the QA, doesn't see it fit to buy Sona at this prices, why should the public buy?! He can go on and on about the merits of the asset but ultimately, you have to put your money where your mouth is. Stop giving us lip service, it is getting really monotonous!!
I plan like to attend personally to the EGM at Grand Hyatt to give my utmost support and vote Yes. This is my first experience to attend EGM, may I know, do i need to do any preparation such as bring any documents? So i still need to post the Form of Proxy to state my vote? what is the procedure?or I just attend, register my name and give my vote and then attend the meeting? Please guide.
If you notice Sona management has been trying to avoid the issue of supporting their share in this forum. I don't think they know how the stock market works: confidence
callme777. That's exactly my point. Would you invest your hard earned money in a PLC where the owner/management doesn't understand the requirements of the investing public? It doesn't mean that you are not a good businessman or that you are not smart, it just means that you need to learn what the market demands are. Otherwise just remain a sendirian berhad.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
sudahkena
1,804 posts
Posted by sudahkena > 2016-04-18 16:50 | Report Abuse
relax.. we all small bilis... will not effect voting percentage ... even hold e few million unit.. the main concern is big investor / cornerstone. .
at the current price.. yes we can get guarantee profit but if pass.. there are more opportunity to up or intact news investor.... especially for wa to gain more than 50% I think...
share price will adjust at exdate for 8cent ...but if pass..maybe share price will up... if today already up...better sell and no need to egm...
risk vs reward.....