As an investor that look for emerging trends, and with a reasonably low entry price for Stag oilfield, investing through upstream O&G co like Sona allows me to take advantage of any long-term bullish Brent oil price trends.
MIDF Research report, the DCF valuation for Sona is RM0.53/share. My observation is that I believe the DCF 53sen valuation is arrived after the 8sen capital repayment is made. Furthermore the current Brent oil price + Stag premium is approaching MIDF's assumption for 2017 oil price of USD50 per barrel.
MIDF Research report, the PBV valuation for Sona is RM0.56/share. This PBV of 56 sen is arrived by MIDF using the average PBV ratio of 1.8x from the sample of 34 O&G companies world-wide, and includes those with high debts. If we exclude those with high debts, I trust that the average PBV ratio can be higher than 1.8x. Since Sona is debt free, the PBV valuation for Sona can also be higher than 56sen per share
RHB Research, the DCF valuation Best case RM0.80 per share, Base case RM0.48 per share Fig. 7 Sensitivity analysis Crude oil (USD/bbl) DCF FY16 FY17 Long term TP (MYR) Best case 50 70 80 0.80 Base case 37.5 45 60 0.48 Worst case 37.5 35 35 0.05 When compared to current Brent + Stag premium, there is a strong case for the DCF Best case 80sen per share valuation
monitor closely wa.. since ths morning someone sell at big lot.. I guess someone get free from ipo now vote no.. so they sell wa earlier. .. I hope I wrong...
remember, that the mother price 44 sen after repayment will be adjusted to 36 sen. if the conversion of warrant is 30sen, the warrant should traded at 6 sen the maximum but not the case now........there is discount now. So if this few days there is huge buying of warrants.....it could signal the QA is gonna go thru and ppl buying to made on the warrant later after conversion.
Baring those valuation from RHB/MIDF.......the mother will go up if the QA is pass after 26th.
Management gets their free 20% only if QA passed. That is why Cliq goes to court to challenge to try get their free 20%, and delay the return of money to the rightful investors! Very unfair to the investors.They (best oracle) should not file for judicial review, just like they are not allowed to vote.
From Sona's circular, proxy forms can be submitted the latest by 'not less than 48 hours before the date and time fixed for the Adjourned EGM i.e. before 10.00 a.m. on 24 April 2016' at Sona's registered office Menara Prima Tower B. Unless majority have submitted, Sona's Mgmt will know the proxy's voting by Sun/Mon
SONA Management been calling investors. They know already who vote yes and who vote no. Why you think Warrant high volume today. Deal now is dead. Pls vote YES if you want to save deal. Else sell your warrants. Those who want 10-11 pct yield buy mother.
Selling pressure of Sona-WA well absorbed with buyers continue to nimble. Looking from the +ve view, if the QA is approved on 26 Apr 2016, the potential returns for these buyers will be tremendous.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
sudahkena
1,804 posts
Posted by sudahkena > 2016-04-22 11:55 | Report Abuse
if approve on 26..let have coffee together. .celebrate