Once you have decided to punt share market, then you need to be "careful" every second of trading hours. Once you have decided to invest in share market with fundamental principles, you just ignore all those noices and only check the share price once a quarter or even once a year !
@LewisLee exactly...as such @Doomstock STFU and Piss off we are not kids here, we are sane enough to know where the money goes and whether +ve or -ve we are tuned to it already..we don't need you to remind us what we need to do every day...
Velesto shares have officially suffered a “correction” after raising from 0.165 (21/12/18) up to 0.41 on 7/11/19 in less than a year, folks. That more than 100% uptrend.
Now the lion has lost its roar. Careful now, folks!
O&G counters have been on down trend. Now is Volesto’s turn. Not sure there will be a rally before Xmas or we really have to wait till CNY? Anyway, longer term investors should be a concern.
An extra cut of 500k barrels a day (total 1.7m barrels) is bad news for O&G industry for Y2020 as this will contribute to:
-A lower production & exploration from Petronas -A lower sales volume of crude oil from Petronas -A lower revenue & profit from Petronas -A lower percentage of contract to be tender out by Petronas -On the other end of the spectrum, U.S. shale oil production is growing at a furious pace and is expected to follow the trend into 2020.
Critical support now at 0.345 folks. Will it be breached by aggressive selling by foreign funds who are now repositioning into the country’s bond market?
Velesto Energy Bhd has bagged a US$30 million contract from Abu Dhabi's Mubadala Petroleum LLC to provide jack-up drilling rig to undertake drilling services for the Pegaga development drilling programme.
Velesto said its indirect wholly-owned subsidiary Velesto Drilling Sdn Bhd has received a letter of award from Mubadala Petroleum’s entity MDC Oil & Gas (SK 320) Ltd for the proposed services.
"The contract is to drill seven firm wells with an expected commencement date envisaged for the second quarter of 2020," it added.
Velesto shares have officially suffered a “correction” after raising from the low of 0.165 on 21/12/18 up to the high of 0.41 on 7/11/19 in less than a year, folks. That more than 100% uptrend.
Worst still an extra cut of 500k barrels a day (total now at 1.7m barrels per day) is bad news for O & G industry for Y2020 as this will contribute to:
-A lower production & exploration from Petronas -A lower sales volume of crude oil from Petronas -A lower revenue & profit from Petronas -A lower percentage of contract to be tender out in year 2020 by Petronas -On the other end of the spectrum, U.S. shale oil production is growing at a furious pace and is expected to follow the trend into 2020.
Has the lion lost its roar? So be extra careful now, folks! Critical support level now at 0.345.
The charter visibility extension for Naga 4 rig at decent dayrates (USD72-75k) is not entirely unexpected, in view of the rising demand for JUs worldwide. Risk-reward has turned positive following our recent downgrade in recommendation, along with a 7% correction in share price. Upgrade to BUY (from HOLD) with an unchanged MYR0.42 TP, based on 1x EV/ replacement value. Velesto, with its resilient financials (3x net debt/EBITDA) is the best proxy to PETRONAS’ drilling programs.
A 12-month charter for Naga 4 from 2Q20
Velesto has secured a Letter of Award from Mubadala Petroleum for the charter of Naga 4 rig. The contract, valued at USD30m, is to drill seven firm wells and is expected to start from 2Q20.
Naga 4 will now be on-hire till 2Q21
We understand that the USD30m contract comprises dayrates and several add-on items. We posit that the estimated dayrates for this contract is about USD72k-75k. While the DCR for Naga 4 is not as compelling as that of Naga 8’s recent contract (USD99k DCR), the new DCR is still comparatively higher by 6-10% from its existing charter from Roc Oil. Also, Naga 4 will experience zero downtime in 2020. Based on the work schedule, Naga 2 will be immediately re-deployed for Mubadala’s job once its current contract for Roc Oil ends in 1Q20.
All in, our estimates are unchanged. We have incorporated the following into our model: (i) DCRs of USD75k-USD83k and (ii) 84%-90% utilisation rates for FY20-21E.
A new charter for Naga 7 next?
Velesto should enjoy near full utilisation for all of its seven JUs in 2020, on condition that 4 JUs (Naga 2, 3, 5 & 6) secure extensions, which is likely a foregone conclusion. Following Naga 4, Velesto’s immediate focus would be to secure contract for Naga 7, whose existing charter are set to end by 4Q20. We expect Velesto’s upcoming contracts to show higher DCRs (USD75k minimum) and longer tenures (1 year and above), in view of the rising offshore activities.
Perhaps the investors in this forum would like to look at a business that is not exposed to cyclical commodity prices and diversify into a takaful insurance company that is riding on the structural growth in islamic insurance
Takaful Malaysia's net profit grew by CAGR 25% over the last 10 years, increasing by almost 10x from RM 38 mil (2009) to RM 380 mil (T4Q), growing profits even through the global financial crisis and recession that followed, with a still low takaful penetration of 16% (overall insurance penetration rate of only 50% with takaful insurance growing at a faster pace than conventional insurance)
Currently trading at a PE of only 12.7x (vs Lonpac PE 18) and a P/BV of only 3.6x (historical P/BV 6.x) with an industry-leading ROE 29.11% (closest Lonpac ROE 16.72%)
* Record high dividend of 20c ex-date 18 Dec 2019 translating to DY of 3.4% *
(AlgoQuant) A Takaful Titan & Analysis of Listed Insurance Companies (TAKAFUL)
Surewind, agreed with you, such a golden opportunity also flat, this counter a bit slow, but believe will surge before Christmas, year end window dressing, cheers
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Lewis Lee
1,695 posts
Posted by Lewis Lee > 2019-12-04 17:10 | Report Abuse
Once you have decided to punt share market, then you need to be "careful" every second of trading hours.
Once you have decided to invest in share market with fundamental principles, you just ignore all those noices and only check the share price once a quarter or even once a year !