U.S. shale growth is about to decline, becoming an immediate victim of the Saudi-Russian price war.
Saudi Aramco said that it would increase oil production to 12.3 million barrels per day (mb/d) in April, a shocking escalation of the war for market share. That level of output is believed to be beyond what Aramco can produce on a sustainable basis. In other words, Saudi Arabia is going all-out to flood the market.
Also, Saudi energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman didn’t sound interested in meeting with Russia anytime soon. “I fail to see the wisdom for holding meetings in May-June that would only demonstrate our failure in attending to what we should have done in a crisis like this and taking the necessary measures,” Prince Abdulaziz told Reuters.
According to Energy Intelligence, Saudi Arabia is conducting budgeting exercises to game out scenarios in which oil crashes to between $12 to $20 per barrel, and will even look at an extreme scenario in which oil falls below $10.
Russia says it can withstand the price war at $25 to $30 per barrel for 6 to 10 years. Neither side appears willing to budge.
“Monday will go down as one of the bleakest market days in the history of the energy sector,” Raymond James wrote in a note. “Was this capitulation day? It certainly feels like it... it is hard to imagine how much worse sentiment can get.” Related: Russia Fires Back: Could Boost Oil Production By 500,000 Bpd
As a result, the immediate victim will be U.S. shale. “[O]il should bottom out when producers begin physically shutting in wells, which is indeed what set the floor four years ago,” the investment bank added.
The reaction was swift. With share prices in freefall, the number of shale companies announcing budget cuts multiplied at the start of the week. Diamondback Energy and Parsley Energy immediately announced plans to cut spending and reduce drilling activity.
Canadian oil company Cenovus Energy slashed 2020 capex by 32 percent and its production guidance by 5 percent. Ovintiv said it would cut spending and tried to reassure skittish investors that it had enough liquidity. Marathon Oil cut spending by $500 million.
Even Chevron admitted that it might need to cut spending, just days after it unveiled lofty goals on free cash flow over the next five years. “We are reviewing alternatives to reduce capital expenditures, that are expected to lower short-term production and preserve long-term value,” Chevron said in a statement to Reuters late on Monday. Chevron was the first oil major to suggest that it might cut spending, and the oil giant said that it needs $55 per barrel in order to cover its spending and shareholder payouts.
At these prices almost no shale well drilled today can make money. Rystad Energy says just a handful of companies have breakevens lower than today’s oil price. Friezo Loughrey of data firm Oil Well Partners LLC told Bloomberg that Permian breakevens are closer to $68 per barrel if investors want an adequate return within 24 months. Today, prices are trading at half of that. Related: Saudi Arabia's Archenemy Is Taking Advantage Of The Oil War
“Many US fracking companies already had their backs to the wall before the price slump due to high debts and financing difficulties,” Commerzbank wrote in a note. “Drilling activity declined continuously until mid-January, and has since stagnated at a low level.”
The one-two combo of the coronavirus pandemic and the Saudi-Russia price war could deliver a knockout blow to U.S. shale.
But perspectives on the impact on production vary. JBC Energy said that they “prefer a more cautious call on US supply declines,” adding that it may take a few months before production begins to fall.
But others see an immediate retreat. “A decline in US shale oil production of 1-2m bl/day from current total US oil production of 13.1m bl/day is natural to expect,” Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB, said in a statement. “We now think that a last-minute deal between Russia and OPEC before the expiry of the current cuts at the end of March 2020 is very unlikely. Russia has probably firmly decided that now is the time to pull away the rug from under the feet of the shale oil producers, so now is the time for the second shale oil reset.”
120mil {Sell} 96mil { Buy } Who can buy 120mil from sellers? All PNB agents. Got to push back to 30cents. Tonite Dow should be Green after England cut Rate. Trump will out do England (got to) bcos CoronaVirus will hit USA, like it or Not
Russia did not bow to OPEC, specifically Saudi request to cut production may justify that on the geopolitical view. Since US sanction on Russian mega gas pipeline project Nordstream 2, impacting delayed completion for remaining 20% for at least 6 months or beyond. This very painful on Russian economically which affected new expected revenue, upon asking to cut oil production will be nonsense to be accepted. Bear in mind that Rusian economy are subjected to numerous US sanction, to another sanction since the Ukraine crisis, Crimea crisis, MH17 shoot down, Skripal poisoning, few other alleged Russian poisoning of ex-Russian citizens in Europe, sanction Russian friendly economic ally Venezuela and Iran, bowing to price cut already the thin red line to cross. Whether intentionally or not, that the current oil price war may really inflicted badly to US shale oil industry, thus US hegemony on Russia will be timely met with long overdue respond.
not so easy to kill all Shale operators. The one in financial ruins will surely kaput. Many shale operators hedged their output. If Oil is 60, they sell at 50. If Oil is 30, Buyer had to buy at 40
Saudi and Russia will reach a win win solution on 18 march . Saudi Arabia needs oil at $80-$85 a barrel to balance budget.oil price war is not sustainable especially for Saudi .oil price will go above US$50 soon.
Italy already like Wuhan, certain city or area lock down due to covid-19. Expect some more city over Europe whose government may treat covid-19 lightly. If that's the case the 2008 economic collapse is not impossible.
Opec new guidance for 2020 oil demand growth down by 94%. If Saudi, Russia, other OPEC members follow suits pumping, flooding more oil than world demand, will oil price further deeper down that the pain blow back to USA, Saudi, Rusia, other producers, exporters, then at this un-imaginable prices between USD10 to USD15 per barrel, resulting no winner at all in this free for all price war, finally all coming to the table talk, or will it come earlier tham the late midnight train stages.
Guys dji crashed another - 1400pts with oil price crash - 4% more!! It's confirmed bearish crash in us share market! Better keep your cash into bank account to wait for next golden chance!
Guys tonight us market probably crash another 2000 pts and oil price might crash another 10% and above, tomorrow should be another crazy panic selling..
Wait for Monday only collect. Weekend might sharp drop again. Do not keep over night as might be nightmare after wake up next morning. Relax and enjoy weekend
Covid-19 paralysed every sectors of world economy, entertainment, sports, air travel industry including its peripherals, food services, tourism & leisure, gambling, sea cruising, manufacturing, religious activities, be it at locality or may otherwise globally, finally energy industry, oil & gas due to significant low demand that spiralling to global equity market, constraint financial institutions vulnerability.
Oil prices dropped as much as 8% on Thursday as crude continues to take a hit on both the supply and demand side. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude is now down more than 25% this week, putting it on track for its worst week since December 2008, and its third largest weekly decline on record.
On Thursday WTI fell $2.04, or 6.2%, to trade at $30.95 per barrel. Earlier in the session it traded as low as $30.02.
International benchmark Brent crude fell $2.51, or 7%, to trade at $33.26 per barrel.
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Baby Shark
5,931 posts
Posted by Baby Shark > 2020-03-11 16:39 | Report Abuse
Yes.. good timing cut loss..