Wow, Amazing ! As at 5.35 p.m, Dow Jones Futures a big green now at => 21,773.0 (+688.0) (+3.26%) ! Like that next monday onwards will be a bull market coming already lah !
Trump is Buying Oil for storage. Sohai Saudi/Russia, sell cheap now and later US Strategic Oil reserve will dispose at a Higher price and makes Billion from Saudi / Russian pockets
In 2008 at the peak of Financial Crisis, my Oil agent told me there were 800 --1000(big & small ) Oil tankers parked at Shanghai Harbour for unloading. Guess who is Buying, China Strategic Oil reserve----price also around $30. With Trump and China (strategic Oil reserve Co.) Buying at the same time, no wonder can have Cheap Oil but No supply.
I think in 30days, Oil will jump back $60----Saudi is just doing a "Show"
Both CIA and KGB know Saudi Oil reserve Volume. Saudi is like a small Boy throwing a massive tantrum, attack Russian's clients here and there. Basically Saudi already at 100% production, extra Oil are from Oil Reserve tanks. How long can this last? Aramco Oil reserve is used as a Loan pledge. Just cannot deplete too much
Some said Saudi extraction cost is $5---8/ barrel. There is a real different between Aramco's Profit and Saudi National Budget. Like Petronas, every dollar from Aramco is funneled back to Saudi's National/Country Budget. Saudi build highways, Bridges, War-chest against Yemen and Gov. Servant paycheck-----all comes from Oil Sales. International Accounting firm has estimate to cover all these expenses(national level), Saudi need Oil price at around $80. If sell at $30, Saudi is looking at $50 deficit ( can borrow from foreign Bank )----not a problem bcos Saudi has a Huge Storage Reserve. But if Saudi keep selling from Oil Reserve, oil reserve that act as Loan collateral for National Budget, then Saudi got a huge problem. Somewhere alone the line, either infrastructure stops Or Gov. servant paycheck Cuts.
No body want to rescue the market, selling is dominant. Covid-19 in reality potentially has major impact on everything economic ecosystem. China may put a hold on Covid-19 propagation after several regions or states being lock down couples of week. It may take another few months for one of biggest world's economy to return as before. Unfortunately Europe and USA are just beginning to experience the consequences of Covid19 silent propagation, with one to another tighter measures were implemented including lockdown. Only time will tell Covid-19 will be fully contained and life back to normal, so to the vital economic ecosystem. What tribulation mankind lately ever experience, so stand firm on trading.
Covid-19 make economy slow down company fundamental will metamorphism and company with high debt will face collapse or bankruptcy soon.Expect local and foreign funds money would not flow in big cap and mid cap stock because everybody scare buy high losses money . In this few month expect Funds manager money would flow out in bigcap and midcap stocks and will short selling midcap stocks for make money so now no prospects cannot buy and hold. market stock RM10 drop to RM5, RM5.00 drop to RM 2.00 , followed RM2.00 drop RM1.00, followed RM1.00 drop to 50 cent, followed 50 cent drop to 20cent ,followed 20 cent drop to 10cent ,followed 10 cent drop to bottom. High debt company cannot hold ,high prices stock cannot hold , market never sleep money never sleep just buy bottom low prices with cash rich company . This is a opportunity markets smarts money no longer will flows in cheaper stocks market will goreng lows price stock at bottom.
Just 2 months ago, Shanghai market had massive 30% selldown. I bought in, and now i started selling with 25% gain----Now bursa a Good Buy market ( a Tabligh fright and a Black Monday Sell down )
betul ni...hutang lapuk punya syarikat saham kami tak mau kasi jual ...kata Najib ""cash is king" .... syarikat yang banyak tunai kita mau ...kata mahathir " cash not king " buy buy buy sebab undervalue kami mau saham...
Its investment in Sapura Energy alone would see PNB recording a paper loss of about RM1.1b in the last 3 months
by DASHVEENJIT KAUR / pic by TMR FILE PIX
PERMODALAN Nasional Bhd (PNB) is seeing billions of its investment in the oil and gas (O&G) sector vanish as oil prices tumble, punishing related stocks with Sapura Energy Bhd’s share price plunging to a new record low.
Oil prices fell to as much as 34% on Feb 9, which was the biggest single-day plunge of the commodity since the US invaded Iraq in 1991.
The Russia-Saudi Arabia oil price war and the coronavirus pandemic led to the crash of global oil prices, triggering alarm bells and dragging O&G counters.
PNB has a substantial shareholding in Sapura Energy, Velesto Energy Bhd and Dialog Group Bhd. Collectively, the three companies have witnessed their total market value dropping about RM6.3 billion since December.
In 2017 and 2018, PNB injected more than RM800 million into Velesto and RM2.68 billion in Sapura via two separate rights issues.
PNB’s investment in Sapura Energy alone would see the country’s largest fund manager recording a paper loss of about RM1.1 billion in the last three months.
At the end of December 2019, Sapura’s share price was trading at 27 sen a share. The counter settled at 10.5 sen or 61.1% lower last Friday, valuing the company at only RM1.68 billion.
In the last 12 months, Sapura Energy’s share has tanked to a new low of eight sen from a high of 37 sen. At its peak, the share reached a high of RM4.94 at the end of 2013 when Brent was trading at above US$100 (RM427.92).
But the global oil crash, which began in early 2015, has taken a toll on the company.
Sapura Energy raised about RM4 billion from a rights issue early last year and turned PNB and its associated funds into its largest shareholder with a combined 40% interest from 12.6% previously. The rights issue price was set at 30 sen.
The unsubscribed portion or 1.85 billion units were taken by joint underwriters — Maybank Investment Bank Bhd, CIMB Investment
Bank Bhd and RHB Investment Bank Bhd — who would also be reeling with paper losses.
PNB also has a 62% equity interest in Velesto. The stock fell from 38.5 sen early this year to RM1.52 billion as of last Friday.
Velesto’s debt risk has risen five levels, according to a Bloomberg Model. PNB’s market value in the rig operator has thinned by about RM700 million.
Velesto returned to profitability in its financial year ended Dec 31, 2019 (FY19), after four consecutive years of losses. Sapura Energy, however, remains in the red, with its third straight quarterly loss recorded in December.
Sapura Energy’s orderbook stands at RM15.1 billion with cumulative new contract wins to date in FY20 of RM3.7 billion.
As for Velesto, analysts are mostly upbeat of the company’s prospects on the prospects of dividends. Velesto has proposed to undertake a capital reduction exercise to offset RM2.2 billion of its issued share capital against its accumulated losses of RM2.1 billion as at FY19.
Analysts view this in a positive light as it sets the company up for potential future dividend payment in view of its return to profitability and positive cashflow.
MIDF Amanah Investment Bank Bhd said the sharp plunge in oil price will definitely hit the upstream exploration and production players like Sapura Energy, given that oil productions are directly correlated to the oil price.
“In a prolonged oil price war environment, globally, we anticipate oil majors to cut or delay some portion of their planned capital expenditures for 2020, which in turn could potentially result in delayed contract awards for the O&G service providers,” it said.
Lot of good things said for Velesto, even possible dividend payment. If got spare cash can top up.
Morgan Stanley "Buy Call" for Dow is actually following historical Data. Dow peak at 29,423 and plunged to 21,200 giving 27.94% plunge ( should be bottom of Bear Market )
Bursa peak at 1726 (Feb 19 ) and Today 1307 ( Mar 16, 2020). Bear Market should formed bottom here at 24.2% Down ( or max next few weeks )
Buy Call is not ask you to Sailang but start moving FD slowly into Good beaten-down stock. I think Bank Negara hands are Tied now. Either Cut to 1.0 Or zero (next few days you will know )
Velesto is down 55% now. How far can it go? PNB going bankrupt----yeah in your Dream. Velesto is making money in 2020. Look at EPF buys Volume. Small fish is always looking at Ghost. When up 30%, they will chase
The balance sheet of Velesto look much stronger than in 2016 and it still can survive with current low chartered rate...
With Debt to Equity ratio 0.35 and Debt reduced by close to RM 90 mil last year. Finance cost reduced by RM 4 mil last year and expected this yr Finance cost will reduce further with lower borrowing and lower interest rate. Expected RM 10 mil lower finance cost compare to 2019.
Cash Flow : Net Cash Generated From Operating Activities in 2019 : RM 202 mil Capex will be low compare to 2019 where 3 rigs had gone thru 5-yearly special periodic survey (“SPS”)
Velesto expected to give dividend after the capital reduction program...
As per latest Q report All seven of the Group’s jack-up drilling rigs are currently contracted. NAGA 3, which is currently undergoing the mandatory SPS is scheduled to resume work under its existing contract. With our current order book of RM2.0 billion including options, our rig utilisation is expected to be sustained in 2020.
There is reason EPF and Amanah saham bumiputra continue bought shares at current market...
With commitment from Pertronas of capex spending for local market remain no change. Velesto should be fine in 2020....
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
tkl88
8,712 posts
Posted by tkl88 > 2020-03-13 17:36 | Report Abuse
Wow, Amazing ! As at 5.35 p.m,
Dow Jones Futures a big green now at => 21,773.0 (+688.0) (+3.26%) !
Like that next monday onwards will be a bull market coming already lah !