couple with the fact WTI June contract going to expire on 19 May. The oil price's movement of this week till next Tuesday i believe will be for downtrend.
If you think oil price below USD30 is just a temporary event, you can buy this share, if you think oil price is going to be stuck below USD30 for a long time, then don't buy.
1) pastikan market sihat ataupun hijau - tgok market luar selain Bskl
2) tengok sektor yg aktif -Pastikan stock yg dipilih ada kaitan dgn sektor -tgok dlm isaham dlm bhg sector
3) pilih kaunter uptrend shj.
4) tgok pd kompeni. - melibatkan sedikit fundamental. Lebih pd investor. Bg trader cukup skadar tau kompeni ni konsisten profit. Tgok pada revenue profit sebagai semakan.
5) catalysis- penggerak yg menyebabkan harga bergerak. Selalunya digerakkan oleh institusi besar . Jerung ,sindikit dan lain2 faktor. Share buyback ,right issue stock split bonus issue juga terlibat sama dlm menggerakkan harga.contoh paling simple tgok pada director company..kalu director sndri beli share syarikat maksudnya positif.
6)price:- ada 3 ciri Range trade atas 20sen keatas Movement-pergerakan yg senang diramal. Candle shape- kenalpasti candle yg memberi signal.
7) volume:-cari volume yg aktif bg memastikan ada suply N demand.
8) support:- teknik buy on support lg selamat dan murah harganya.
9) confirmation:- lebih pd buy signal. Bole tgok indikator ( RSI ) above 30% 50% 70% atau candlestick.
(Bloomberg) -- President Donald Trump’s top energy official said the oil industry is on its way back after suffering crippling losses from an unprecedented price collapse.
“We now have 23 states that are opening up their local economies, that represents roughly 40% of the gasoline demand in the United States,” Energy Secretary Dan Brouillette said in an interview with Bloomberg Television on Tuesday. “We’re starting to see oil prices stabilize.”
The oil market has staged a modest recovery since prices plunged into negative territory last month for the first time ever, amid signs that demand is making a gradual comeback and as producers cut output to erode a supply glut.
The Energy Information Administration on Tuesday announced modest downward revisions to its oil production estimates for this year and next, and revised up its forecasts for oil prices compared with April.
Brouillette shrugged off the risk that U.S. output could come back too quickly and threaten the market’s recovery. Pipeline giant Energy Transfer LP said on Monday that some drillers in the Permian are reopening wells that were shut in response to the pandemic-driven collapse.
“The third and fourth quarters in 2020 and certainly into 2021 are going to be very, very robust,” Brouillette said, with production coming back online as the economy takes off.
Jan & Feb, Velesto rigs in full operation until 18 March. MCO implemented on 18 March (if I'm not wrong)...so Velesto got 2.5 month of full operations. I believed 1st qtr even not favourable but not as bad as we think. April onward , Malaysia Government imposed strict movement control. Only essential products manufacturers allowed to operate. That mean, O&G not in that categories and NO rigs operation start from 18 March to end of April. May onward conditional MCO implemented whereby most of the industry permitted to operate that included O&G sectors. Velesto lost 1.5 month in rigs operation for 2nd qtr....you all do the figure.
2) Brent still stable 29 - 30. Now due to supply more than demand + storage capacity issues + restrictions in flights and etc etc...but I believed the cloudy period will be over and oil will hit 35 ++soon.
Nevertheless, Velesto is still good company with strong back from Amanah and PNB. EPF out temporary and I believed their withdrawal from this counter due to the recent incentive scheme that announced by our PM. They need huge amounts of money to cater rakyat needs. Once everything settle, they will join back.
This is my opinions...Sept onward Velesto will shine again...but sometimes it can turn virtual. Happy trading. Patience is key for all success.
FCM100..true but Petronas talking on behalf of them especially for refinery Plant (Maybe Pengerang oil process). Different companies got different procedures including rigs operation. Petronas got so many downstream under them. Even if Velesto willing to operate but I dont think in 100% scale. Anyway, now we got some clear picture after make comparison to all data. Let say if Velesto gearing up maximum output during this MCO period then it is good enough to support its financial report except for the downfall of oil price (after 18 March onward). I really appreciate your info, this is the way supposed to be...share good thing in correct time, not blindly shoot. We all in same ship to support and help each other. Happy trading.
something wrong in this counter! keep dropping everyday and unlimited selling volumes!! better keep cash safer! sure got problem! either going to pn17 or market crash if not mistaken!!
If the oil back to usd 50 from July-Sept.Then back and stabilize around usd 53-55 from Oct till Dec. It should have a quick jump from usd 30 to usd 50. Cutting too much will resulted in shortage building up. If they are not cutting production then its hard to predict. But they are continue cutting the production. Result should come quickly than earlier prediction.
Earlier this week, Iraq, OPEC’s second-biggest producer and the least compliant member in all previous rounds of cuts, was said to have told some of its Asian oil buyers that it would not send the full contractual volumes requested for June. This could be a sign that even OPEC’s least compliant member is trying to play its part this time, as oil prices are so low that they are devastating Iraq’s primary budget income, oil revenues.
I think this will be a good news and a huge green signal for all oil and gas counters.
Home / Oil & Energy / Oil & Companies News / U.S. commodities watchdog issues blunt warning over oil volatility
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has written to exchanges, brokers and clearers in unusually forthright terms to remind them of their obligation to ensure orderly trading and commodity pricing.
The CFTC’s letter, sent on Wednesday, was issued in the wake of unusually high volatility and negative prices in the light sweet crude oil futures contract (WTI) for delivery in May on the penultimate day of trading last month.
The detailed restatement of basic obligations, which should not need reminding, amounted to an extraordinary public warning to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), which operates the WTI futures contract.
The Commission’s decision to issue a public caution illustrates the depth of concern about what happened in the run-up to the expiry of the May futures contract, and determination it must not be allowed to happen again.
FAIR AND ORDERLY In its letter, the Commission noted that the coronavirus pandemic has badly disrupted markets and increased volatility across many of the agricultural, energy and financial contracts that it is responsible for regulating.
But it singled out unprecedented volatility in contracts that call for physical delivery, like WTI, as a source of special concern (“CFTC Letter No. 20-17” May 13, 2020).
The Commission reminded futures exchanges they are legally responsible for preventing “manipulation, price distortion, and disruptions of the delivery or cash-settlement process”.
Futures exchanges must ensure markets remain competitive, orderly and fair by employing “market surveillance, compliance, and enforcement practices and procedures”.
CONTRACT EXPIRIES The letter focused on the behaviour of market participants and prices in the run-up to contract expiry, another sign of official concern about what happened ahead of last month’s WTI expiry.
Futures exchanges were reminded of their obligation “to monitor the convergence between the contract price and the price of the underlying commodity” as expiry nears.
Even more pointedly, exchanges were warned they must “monitor the supply of the commodity and its adequacy to satisfy the delivery requirements”.
In a reference to problems with the deliverability of WTI, exchanges were instructed they must make “a good-faith effort to resolve conditions that threaten the adequacy of supplies or the delivery process”.
The extreme volatility in WTI futures last month has been blamed, in part, on the shortage of capacity to make or take physical delivery of crude oil at the contract’s delivery point at Cushing in Oklahoma.
Exchanges were also reminded they must establish and enforce position limits and accountability levels to prevent market manipulation or congestion around the delivery point.
In effect, the Commission told exchanges that their contracts must be fit for purpose, with an effective mechanism and sufficient capacity to make or take delivery, and not simply free from overt manipulation.
EXCHANGE POWERS The letter notes that exchanges must enforce rules designed “to protect the market and market participants from abusive practices including fraudulent, noncompetitive or unfair actions, committed by any party”.
Sometimes futures markets are characterised as laissez-faire, but in fact trading is heavily regulated, and the Commission has reminded exchanges they are responsible for preventing a broad range of unacceptable practices.
In a signal that it expects exchanges to get tougher, the Commission reminded them they have the power to intervene in an emergency – without needing to state that it expects those powers to be used if necessary. The letter notes exchanges have the power, among other things, to liquidate or transfer any open positions; suspend or curtail trading; and impose special margin requirements to ensure markets remain orderly and fair.
CLIENT POSITIONS The letter also contains several reminders to futures commission merchants (FCMs) of their responsibility to manage risks associated with their clients’ positions in futures contracts.
FCMs are reminded of their obligations to maintain effective risk-management systems to protect customer funds, including on an intra-day basis, especially “in light of recent events”.
Crucially, brokers must monitor positions as a contract gets closer to the expiration date to ensure customers can meet their financial obligations and make or take delivery on the futures contract.
It is an unsubtle reminder brokers should not allow customers to run positions close to expiry unless they are satisfied the customer has the logistical ability to make or take physical delivery.
Since last month’s upsurge in volatility, some futures commission merchants have already prohibited smaller customers from opening new positions.
Rystad Energy estimated that E&P companies will see revenues plunge by around $1 trillion in 2020, falling to $1.47 trillion from $2.47 trillion last year. They were also of the view that 2020 will see the lowest project sanctioning activity since the 1950s in terms of total sanctioned investments, which stands at $110 billion – only 33 percent of the investments in 2019. Many companies have already abandoned or deferred their major projects.
So what does this all mean? It simply means that fewer resources will be made available for future investments in exploration and production - hindering the ability of companies to invest in future projects. A decrease in exploration and production investment will lead to a supply squeeze in the future once demand comes back online.
The coming recovery will require enormous financial and energy resources to rectify the damages caused by COVID-19. During this recovery process, global oil demand will slowly move towards normalcy and may even surpass global supply. Even if the oil industry were to increase investment, there is always a lag involved in bringing production online. It takes a number of years to discover, acquire, and develop a project. Even shale oil wells may struggle to come back online as it is difficult to return a well that has been shut-in to its previous production levels. Then there are the disruptions at manufacturing sites (where plants & equipment for future delivery are under construction) to consider. These delays may impact a project’s completion date. The list of variables that could impact the supply side of the oil market in the near future is a very long one.
The world has witnessed various cycles in the past, but there has never been anything as complete and intensive as this. The time-scale of the oil price recovery will depend upon how quickly the global economy is revived and how fast the surplus oil is consumed by increasing demand. The ability of OPEC to comply with its production cut deal will also play a role in the oil market recovery.
While the timescale remains unclear, a new oil price cycle is in the making, and the serious lack of investment in exploration and production as well as other supply-side issues could send oil prices significantly higher.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Gemstar
431 posts
Posted by Gemstar > 2020-05-13 14:59 | Report Abuse
Add some velesto to my portfolio today ... oil will bounce back strong.. keep in fridge 1st