On top of that, Velesto is currently trading at 50% discount to its average share price of RM0.30 in 2019. Meanwhile, valuation in terms of P/B ratio, is also hovering around the lower end of its historical range (Chart 6). In a nutshell, improved outlook, coupled with stronger balance sheet and undemanding valuations provide an attractive risk-reward ratio for investors. Hence, we rate Velesto a BUY
Velesto should has a fair value of 50cents (without Naga 7 in its Books ) Another 2 petronas contracts would be very Good. If Green Tech really take Off, Velesto still has a lot Jobs in Sealing off Old drilling Oil pipes from releasing Oil and Drill for Gas Deposit for LNG
As oil prices hit multi-year highs, some speculative traders are betting on the options market that oil could exceed $100 a barrel by the end of this year and even reach a record $200 per barrel by the end of 2022.
Call options give traders the right—but not the obligation—to buy assets at a certain price, the so-called strike price, by a certain date.
The amounts of call options at triple-digit strikes have soared in recent weeks, suggesting that more speculative traders are attracted by potential quick profits from options trades, which are relatively low-cost ways to speculate on the direction of an asset.
Some “wild” bets such as call options at a $100 per barrel WTI Crude strike by December 2021 or $200 per barrel Brent Crude by December 2022 have been placed in recent weeks, The Wall Street Journal reports, citing data from provider QuikStrike.
Even after hitting the highest levels in several years in recent days, oil prices have further room to rise this winter. At least short-term market fundamentals suggest so, analysts say. Inventories around the world have fallen to below the pre-pandemic five-year average as stocks are depleting, with demand bouncing back amid a weaker supply response from producers. The energy crunch in Europe and Asia and record-high natural gas and coal prices add more arguments to the bullish case for oil in coming months as a switch from gas to oil products such as fuel oil and diesel, especially in Asia, is already underway.
The structure of the oil futures curve a year from now also points to a tight market and headroom for higher crude prices.
Stocks Draw As Demand Rebounds
On the demand side, recovering economies and mobility have boosted global oil demand in recent months, leading to inventory drawdowns that have reduced global stocks to below recent averages.
In both the United States and the OECD developed economies as a whole, commercial oil stocks have dropped to below pre-COVID five-year averages after more than reversing the huge builds from the spring and summer last year, Reuters market analyst John Kemp notes.
As of the latest reporting week, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories stood at 427 million barrels, around 6 percent below the five-year average for this time of year. Gasoline inventories were about 2 percent below the five-year average, distillate fuel inventories were 9 percent lower, while propane/propylene inventories were a massive 21 percent below the five-year average for this time of year, the latest EIA data showed.
In OECD, commercial stocks in August were 162 million barrels below the pre-COVID five-year average, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its latest monthly report last week. Preliminary data for the U.S., Europe, and Japan show on-land industry stocks fell by a further 23 million barrels in September.
Related: Exxon Considers Abandoning Major Oil And Gas Projects To Appease ESG Investors Globally, implied Q3 refined product balances “show the largest draw in eight years, which explains the strong increase in refinery margins in September despite significantly higher crude prices,” said the IEA.
The energy crisis in Europe and Asia could additionally boost global oil demand by 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) compared to a “normal” market without a natural gas and coal crunch, the agency noted, raising its 2021 and 2022 global oil demand forecasts.
Supply Lags Demand As OPEC+ Keeps Market Tight
While demand has rebounded despite the summer COVID flare-ups in the U.S. and Asia, supply additions to the oil market have been lagging behind the pace of growing demand.
First, it was Hurricane Ida that limited U.S. oil supply from the Gulf of Mexico from the end of August through most of September. Supply will not recover to its full capacity until early next year, as a Shell-operated platform will remain offline until the end of 2021.
At the same time, the OPEC+ group continues to keep the market tight, adding just 400,000 bpd each month to its overall supply. That’s despite calls from the U.S. and other consuming nations to open the taps and tame the high oil prices, and despite the energy crisis which has forced utilities to fire up oil-fueled power generation amid record-high natural gas prices, boosting demand for oil products.
OPEC+ leaders point to expected oversupply next year and to the need to look beyond the next two months in their decision to continue to reverse only 400,000 bpd per month of their cuts.
Saudi Energy Minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, last week basically ruled out the option that the alliance would respond to the oil price rally by adding more supply than planned.
“We should look way beyond the tip of our noses. Because if you do, and take ’22 into account, you will end up by end of ’22 with a huge amount of overstocks,” he said on Thursday.
Related: Oil Prices Dip As China Considers Market Intervention
Moreover, output figures point to the fact that OPEC+ is actually pumping well below its collective production ceiling. As per Bloomberg’s estimates, if all members of the alliance stuck to their respective production ceilings in September, the overall production of the group would have been 747,000 bpd higher than what it was.
It looks like OPEC+ is not too worried about demand destruction at $85 oil, at least not for now. The group’s leaders stress the importance of a longer-term vision and stability on the market, expecting increased supply in 2022 from both their own wells and from the U.S. shale patch, which appears to be maintaining its capex discipline even at $80 oil.
‘Blowout’ Backwardation Points To Even Higher Oil Prices
At the end of 2021, however, supply remains tight, while backwardation—a key indicator of a tightening market—between the December 2021 Brent contract and the December 2022 contract h
Forget $100, Options Traders Now Betting On Oil Prices Hitting $200 By Tsvetana Paraskova - Oct 19, 2021, 7:00 PM CDT $100 Oil is no longer an ‘outrageous’ bet in the call-options market Some speculative traders are now betting on $200 oil in December 2022 For those betting on $100 oil, the leader of the OPEC+ alliance, Saudi Arabia, has a message: look beyond the end of this year; an oversupply is coming next year
Everyone who has been following oil markets during the pandemic knows that WTI crude prices reached negative levels in an unprecedented turn of events in April 2020.
The culprit back then was the overflowing Cushing storage hub.
In 2021, America's largest oil storage hub is once again about to play a crucial role in what could be the next major price shock in oil markets.
But this time, the opposite is true. Crude inventories in the crucial oil storage facility are plunging at an alarming rate.
According to JP Morgan, Cushing may just be weeks away from being ``effectively out of crude''
You see, a gas crisis in Europe and Asia has already led to a large, and unexpected jump in demand. This in combination with OPEC's overcompliance to its output cuts has created a very tight oil market
Without additional volumes, JP Morgan expects the Cushing hub to reach critical levels in the next two months, setting crude prices up for a serious spike.
High fuel prices at the pump would likely extend into next year, President Joe Biden has warned, blaming the price rise on OPEC policies.
“My guess is you’ll start to see gas prices come down as we get by and going into the winter -- excuse me, into next year, in 2022,” the president at a public event in response to a question on inflation, as quoted by Bloomberg. “I don’t see anything that’s going to happen in the meantime that’s going to significantly reduce gas prices.”
“Gas prices relate to a foreign policy initiative that is about something that goes beyond the cost of gas,” Biden also said, adding. “That’s because of the supply being withheld by OPEC, and so there’s a lot of negotiation that is—there’s a lot of Middle Eastern folks who want to talk to me,” he said. “I’m not sure I’m going to talk to them, but the point is it’s about gas production. There’s things we can do in the meantime, though.”
The president, however, stopped short of going into the specifics of these “things” that can be done to push prices lower.
The White House has, several times since the start of the year, approached OPEC—and Saudi Arabia separately—in an attempt to make the cartel add more supply to international markets. These attempts have so far failed to yield any results. These latest claims that high American gas prices were the responsibility of OPEC are unlikely to make the cartel more cooperative.
Meanwhile, the administration has also approached the U.S. oil industry, too, to ask for more oil. That move has also failed to produce any results for American drivers as prices creep closer to $4 per gallon and in some states, exceed it. According to a Reuters report, the approach by the White House had not been met eagerly by the oil industry. In fact, the agency quoted one industry executive as saying there was no chance drillers would heed Biden’s plea for more oil due to his administration’s policies so far.
Six years after former BP chief executive Bob Dudley said that “the industry needs to prepare for lower for longer,” a growing number of major investment banks now expect “higher for longer” oil prices.
Rebounding global oil consumption amid tight supply—contrary to some forecasts last year that indicate demand may have peaked or was close to its peak—as well as years of underinvestment in new supply following the 2015 crash, have prompted Wall Street banks to raise significantly their projections for oil prices in the short and medium term.
Oil prices have hit multi-year highs in recent days, with WTI Crude at its highest since 2014 and Brent Crude at the highest level since October 2018.
Even after the latest rally, prices still have headroom to rise further, many major investment banks believe.
Goldman Sachs, for example, sees Brent hitting $90 per barrel at the end of this year, up from $80 expected earlier. The key driver of Goldman’s higher forecast is global oil demand recovery amid still a weaker supply response from non-OPEC+ oil producers.
The investment bank also sees sustained higher oil prices in the coming years.
Fundamentals warrant higher oil prices, and the bank’s forecast for the next several years is $85 a barrel, Damien Courvalin, Head of Energy Research & Senior Commodity Strategist at Goldman Sachs, told CNBC earlier this month.
Oil demand will set record highs next year and the year after that, and we need to see a ramp-up in investment, he said.
“We’re facing potential multi-year deficits and the risk of significantly higher prices,” Courvalin told CNBC.
RBC Capital Markets is also bullish on oil prices in the medium term.
“We maintain the view that we have held all year - that the oil market remains in the early days of a multi-year, structurally strong cycle,” RBC analyst Michael Tran said in a note in mid-October carried by Reuters.
Last week, Morgan Stanley raised its long-term oil price outlook up by $10 per barrel to $70. BNP Paribas expects oil prices at nearly $80 a barrel in 2023, Bloomberg notes.
UBS expects oil prices “to remain well supported into next year,” with the market staying tight at least until the first quarter of 2022, due to the lowest inventories in OECD since 2015, only gradual easing of the OPEC+ cuts, and oil demand hitting 100 million barrels per day (bpd) in December 2021.
“While demand is expected to increase as well next year, additional OPEC+ and US production should result in a balanced oil market. With more OPEC+ members struggling to increase production in line with the group’s plans, its additions in 2022 will likely be only a fraction of the currently intended 3.76mbpd increase, which should prevent an oversupplied market, in our view,” Giovanni Staunovo, Dominic Schnider, and Wayne Gordon wrote on Friday.
“So bearing all of this in mind, we now expect Brent to trade at USD 90/bbl in December and March, before leveling off to USD 85/bbl for the rest of 2022,” UBS’s analysts added.
Beyond 2022, oil prices are likely to remain structurally higher as oil demand will continue to rise while new supply would lag consumption growth, primarily due to five years of underinvestment and the pressure on oil majors to cut emissions and investments in new supply, analysts say.
Global annual upstream spending needs to increase by as much as 54 percent to $542 billion if the oil market is to avert the next supply shortage shock, Moody’s said earlier this month.
“Our analysis demonstrates that upstream companies will need to increase their spending considerably for the medium term to fully replace reserves and avoid declines in future production,” Moody’s Vice President Sajjad Alam said.
The oil industry is “massively underinvesting” in supply to meet growing demand, which is set to return to pre-COVID levels as soon as the end of 2021 or early 2022, Greg Hill, president of U.S. oil producer Hess Corp, said at the end of September.
Last year, global upstream investment sank to a 15-year low of $350 billion, according to estimates by Wood Mackenzie from earlier this year.
The latesr Edge edition Tong's portfolio, he added Velesto in his Malaysian Portfolio and gave a detailed analysis on this company's fundamental ! TP = 0.30 as per its NTA !! Add more shares before most fund managers discover this hidden gem and pump it UP higher !!
From CIMB report Oil & Gas ‘Makmur Tax’ may negatively impact Petronas Dagangan’s FY22F core EPS forecast by 10.7%; no or little impact on Velesto, Bumi Armada, Yinson, Sapura Energy, or Dialog
Petronas Dagangan (PDB) may be negatively affected by the ‘Makmur Tax’, as we forecast group pretax losses excluding associates at RM893m for FY22F. Virtually all of the group pretax losses are housed under the one single holding company, rather than split up across several subsidiaries. As a result, we estimate that the ‘Prosperity Tax’ may reduce PDB’s FY22F core net profit by up to RM71m (7 sen/share), or 10.7% of our current core net profit forecast of RM668m. The negative impact to our DDM-based target price is also c.7 sen/share, which is immaterial against our current target price of RM19.90.
Velesto is unlikely to be affected by the ‘Makmur Tax’, as we forecast group pretax profits for FY22F to be below the RM100m threshold for the application of the aforementioned tax. In any case, each of its jack-up rigs are housed in separate legal entities, and the RM100m threshold is to be measured on per-legal entity basis.
Bumi Armada is unlikely to be affected by the ‘Makmur Tax’, as its floating production storage and offload (FPSO) vessels are all based outside of Malaysia. Most of Yinson’s FPSOs are also based outside of Malaysia, with the exception of the FPSO Helang; we estimate that the FPSO Helang does not earn more than the RM100m threshold for the tax to apply.
Sapura Energy is unlikely to be affected by the ‘Makmur Tax’, as most of its work is outside Malaysia. For its Malaysian business, it may be able to use its carriedforward tax losses to offset any potential taxable profits, in our view.
Dialog is unlikely to be affected by the ‘Prosperity Tax’, in our view, despite our forecast of group pretax profits of RM726m in FY6/22F (RM446m from subsidiaries and RM281m from associates). This is because we expect the individual companies to either generate less than RM100m in pretax profits in the 2022 year of assessment, or for the individual companies to enjoy significant unutilised capital allowances and investment tax allowances that can be used to almost-fully offset taxable profits.
NEW YORK: Airline reservations to the United States took off immediately after the White House announced the country would reopen to all vaccinated international voyagers starting next week, compelling a welcome -- if challenging -- industry pivot.
The long-awaited US move to welcome back international travelers -- which takes effect Monday -- follows 18 months of restrictions for 33 countries during the worst of the coronavirus pandemic that separated families, impeded business travel and frustrated tourists.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Macgyver11
2,492 posts
Posted by Macgyver11 > 2021-10-18 10:03 | Report Abuse
Walaoeh!! 0.165 now