but i feel something not right..... in 4 days continuous, MACD keep crossing, parabolic SAR look like will further drop, RSI increase back to 40 (borderr line). Chop zone still red.... MACD all the while positive value
Local media reported that Velesto has completed the upgrading works for its Naga 5 and Naga 6 rigs with the offline capabilities. With this module, the rigs will be capable to undertake multiple scope of activities while drilling, hence reducing the drilling time per well. This, in return, will reduce the overall drilling project costs for clients and indirectly reduce its carbon emission footprint.
Improving Rigs Competitiveness
We note that Velesto’s market share for local drilling jobs has declined to a 5-year low in FY21 or at 35% from the average of 60% despite steady demand (Chart 2). This could be due to longer drilling days to complete a drilling campaign as compared to foreign rigs. In a situation where Velesto submit its bid at similar daily charter rate (DCR) against its peers, longer drilling period will result in higher costs for clients. As such, we believe this upgrade will improve its competitiveness, hence helping the company to regain its market share and improve its asset utilisation rate. This is further supported by (i) recent 2+1+1 year umbrella contract that it secured from Petronas Carigali and (ii) strong demand outlook for jack-up rig that is expected to peak at 16 rigs in FY24. We understand that the company is also looking to upgrade NAGA 3 and NAGA 4 with a similar feature in the near future.
No Change to Earnings Forecast
Our utilisation rate assumption remain intact following this development, hence no change to our earnings forecast. To recap, our FY22-24F earnings forecast is based on utilisation rate assumption of 70-75%.
Maintain BUY with Unchanged TP RM0.28
The stock price has further declined to an all-time low of RM0.075 possibly due to concern on its weak utilisation rate. However, we think the market could be too pessimistic on the company’s near term outlook while the potential of Velesto regaining its market share could have been overlooked. As such, we maintain Velesto as a BUY with unchanged TP of RM0.28 pegged at 1x P/B to FY22F.
The Board of Directors of Velesto Energy Berhad ("VEB") is pleased to announce that Velesto Workover Sdn. Bhd. (“VWO”), a wholly-owned subsidiary of Velesto Malaysian Ventures Sdn. Bhd. (“VMV”), which in turn is a wholly-owned subsidiary of VEB, has received a Work Order Award (“WOA”) from PETRONAS Carigali Sdn. Bhd. (“PCSB”), for Provision of Plug and Abandonment Integrated Services for Tembungo A & B (“WORK”).
2. DETAILS
The WORK is for an estimated value up to RM60 million with salient terms as follows:-
The duration of the campaign is for twenty-one (21) months for Tembungo-A tentatively from May 2022 until January 2024 with an extension option of 12 months for Tembungo-B tentatively from January 2024 until December 2024. Provision of integrated project management and hydraulic workover unit services for the duration of the campaign
Cannot expect too much from this coming qtr revenue. Two rigs just back from maintenance/overhaul. Normally when they announced contract before the qtr release then qtr most probably 50:50 (I hope they return to black this qtr). But, Velesto now back on track..future earnings is imminent.
Hopefully this quarter lost already reflected in current share price. Next quarter if still not show positive recovery, I will cutoff this counter forever. I giving you guys last chance to all Velesto's management team.
Last I read from the recently Edge weekly that Petronas is negotiating with all OSV contractors to review upwards thier charter rates ! I was shocked to learn that Velesto s contract with Petronas for thier rigs is currently fixed at USD75,000 whreas the market rate has gone as high as USD 120,000 !! Looks like fatt king Petronas is squeezing them left right and centre !! No wonder they reported loss despite high curde oil price !! according to the report, many Arab oil majors are coming to "sapu" rigs whereever they can , even paid double price for the acquisition price as sold by Icon Offshore recently !! The news look promising !!! Either Velesto can review all their charter rates to market price (33% upwards as revenue ) or sell all their 6 rigs to Arab oil major for fat fat asset profit !!!
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
daneilchoong
141 posts
Posted by daneilchoong > 2022-08-12 09:17 | Report Abuse
lets dont forget this alongside sapura