funny 1 oil price low < 30 USD where was the price cap cheap oil = free market, let it go with demand and supply oil expensive, fear of own citizen rioting / protesting only start taking action.
when oil producing countries were having losses, all blame the company for bad management. now making too much money also cannot
OPEC’s crude oil production fell by an average of 744,000 barrels per day, according to OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report released on Tuesday.
Saudi Arabia’s November production fell by the most among its members, by 404,000 bpd, to 10.474 million bpd—Saudi Arabia’s lowest monthly average since May 2022.
Other significant production decreases were realized by the United Arab Emirates, which saw a decrease of 149,000 bpd in November, landing at 3.037 million bpd; Kuwait, which saw a dip of 121,000 bpd to 2.685 million bpd; and Iraq with a loss of 117,000 bpd to 4.465 million bpd.
Overall, OPEC’s average production for November fell to 28.826 million bpd—the lowest average production level since June.
Demand getting higher for crude oil as the world reserve depleted. Once China fully open the border, black fossil becomes black gold. Stick to ripe the benefits.
Supply shortages and insufficient investment in new supply will result in a bumper year for commodities in 2023, Goldman Sachs says, expecting the S&P GSCI commodity index to post a 43% return next year.
Commodities are set to be the best-performing asset class in 2023, the bank’s strategists said in a note.
“From a fundamental perspective, the setup for most commodities next year is more bullish than it has been at any point since we first highlighted the super-cycle in October 2020,” Jeffrey Currie, global head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs, wrote, as carried by The Australian Financial Review.
The first quarter of 2023 could be more underwhelming than the rest of the year due to the expected slowdown in economies, but the low levels of investment in oil, gas, and key metals will continue to underpin what Goldman has called a new supercycle in commodities.
The drop in Brent Crude to the low $80s is likely temporary, according to the Wall Street bank, which says that oil market participants could be too pessimistic about China’s demand.
Key metals necessary for the energy transition are also set for a bull run amid expected shortages in the coming years, Goldman and industry giants say.
Earlier this month, mining and commodities giant Glencore said that a huge shortage of copper is looming while significant mine development is lagging.
According to Glencore’s estimates, under the net-zero emissions pathway of the International Energy Agency (IEA), the world will be more than 50 million tons short of copper between 2022 and 2030.
Moreover, Goldman Sachs also said in early December that copper prices were set for a new record-high next year amid an “extremely” tight market. Next year, Goldman expects copper prices to top the current record-high of $10,845 per ton that it hit in March 2022. It raised its 12-month price target to $11,000 a ton from $9,000 per ton.
In its latest monthly report, OPEC revealed it had yet again failed to produce as much oil as it agreed to produce the last time it discussed output. And it wasn’t by a few thousand barrels per day, either. The shortfall was some 1.8 million barrels daily, but more importantly, that sort of undershooting of its own target has become a regular thing for the cartel.
Meanwhile, the United States federal government needs to buy some oil for its strategic petroleum reserve after releasing close to 200 million barrels from it this year as a way of countering fuel price inflation. Yet U.S. drillers are not in a rush to boost production. On the contrary, it seems production growth has lost its place among these companies’ top priorities.
Of course, there are also the sanctions against Russia, which many expect will hurt the country’s oil production, and that may well happen, but it has not happened yet. In fact, the oil sanctions—in the form of a price cap on maritime exports and an embargo on exports to the EU—have had no effect on oil flows out of Russia. For now.
Investment banks expect higher oil prices, despite a recent slump prompted by expectations of an economic slowdown pretty much across the globe. The expectations, now beginning to seep into trader circles, too, are largely based on China’s reversal of its zero-Covid policy. But they also probably take into account the fact that oil remains an indispensable commodity. And the era of cheap oil may well be over for good.
Following this contract announcement, we estimate that Velesto has secured utilisation rate of at least 33% for FY23F. While this is still below our assumption of 75%, we believe it remainsintact. We expect Velesto to gain more market share in the near future as its sole local competitor is considering to sell its rig to foreign operator. To recap, its tenderbook currently stands at RM2.4bn which made up of 8 long term contracts (i.e., more than 12 months) and 20 short term contracts (less than 12 months).
Maintain BUY with Unchanged TP RM0.28
The stock price has recovered swiftly from its all-time low of RM0.075 following news of tighter rig market. However, we think there is still much upside even at current price level stemming from (i) recovery in utilisation rate and (ii) higher daily charter rate. As such, we maintain Velesto as a BUY with unchanged TP of RM0.28 pegged at 1x P/B to FY22F.
China Stocks Climb on Covid Shift The Shanghai Composite rose 0.4% to around 3,078 while the Shenzhen Component gained 0.5% to 11,035 on Tuesday, rising for the second straight session after China announced that it will end quarantine requirements for inbound travelers starting on Jan. 8, sparking hopes for a faster economic recovery. Investors also digested data showing industrial profits in China fell 3.6% year-on-year in the January-November period, reflecting economic disruptions brought by Covid restrictions. Property, industrial and commodity-linked stocks led the charge, with strong gains from Gree Real Estate (2.3%), SHN Zhenye (8.6%), China State Construction (1.7%), Zhejiang Construct (4.5%) and Shandong Chiway (5.6%). Other heavyweight firms also advanced, including Sungrow Power (3.8%), Xi'an Catering (4.9%), People.cn (1.6%), Shenzhen Infinova (6.8%) and Shaanxi Jinye (9.9%).
Putin bans oil supply to countries that comply with G7..
Having promised that it would reveal its response to the recently implemented by the G7 price cap on Russian oil exports, moments ago the Kremlin did not disappoint, and as the WSJ reports, Russian President Vladimir Putin banned the supply of Russian oil and oil products to countries that impose a price cap, allowing deliveries to those nations only on the basis of a special permission from the Kremlin leader.
More shortage in oil & gas supply. This is very good news for O&G. Rigs service will be booming like hot cakes. Grab grab while cheap.
This "kampung" company can't fight with other intrenational players, i think , they can only rely on Abang Petronas, if Petronas give contract, huat lah, if not , PKM already ! So far outlook is quite good, most analysts recommend Veryslow because Abang Petronas is going to increase Drilling Rigs and HWU expenses and this is the specialty of Very-slow !
"Drilling Rigs and HWU. Petronas expects an average of 26 rigs (an increase of 30% YoY) to be chartered in 2023 (12 Jack-up rigs, 4 Tender rigs, 8 Hydraulic Workover Units, 2 semi-sub/drillships) as compared to 20 rigs (9 jack-up rigs, 3 tender rigs, 6 Hydraulic workover units, 2 semi-sub/drillships) in 2022. We highlight the clear beneficiary of this development would be Velesto Energy in our local space."
Other than news come in for new contracts secured, I don't think its share price can move up now. Profit takers dominating the transactions right now I guess.
Year end all retailers/short sellers dumping. Expected tomorrow the same scenario maybe worse. If Veryslow can take the bullet at 0.14.5 to 15c then good enough, expect next year good beginning.
What I know from sources, they continued to bidding for new contracts from international companies like Mubadala, ConocoPhillips and Shell. I hope there's some new contract announcement next year 2023. Should be...
In 2019, average crude oil price is in between usd65 to 75. That time veryslow doing very fine, received lot of new contracts from those international companies. Veryslow trading above 0.40c till covid strike the worldwide and plunged down the oil price. This year average crude oil price is usd100 above, hope the trend will continue for next year also
Out of 7 stocks that Warren Buffet invested 2 from O&G sector (Chevron & Occidental). Meanwhile buffet is making tons of money while Bezos and Elon losing billions. Buffet is investor not inventor, so he knows all about stock market from A to Z. Buffet won't simply buy unless intrinsic and future values of particular stock is very good.
Hedge fund manager Andurand: full reopening of Chinese economy could send oil prices past $140 per barrel. Andurand: The market is underestimating the scale of the demand boost. Andurand did say last week that oil demand will be limited somewhat by a growth in the EV sector. ________________________ Most Hedge funds have unloaded Oil....Now they are Back, Today Oil price is the beginning of Oil Rally
First you must know the basic principles or their nature of business....
Velesto extract raw crude oil for their customers like Shell, petronas and recently they get contract from Hess carigali...that's it. They not processing crude oil like Petronas refineries. They get their profit from rigs and HWU renting. It's all depend on how much they get paid from daily charter rates from renting the rigs/hwu to strengthening theirs balance sheets. 2020 and 2021 is very bad years where they are paid below the market rate. International rigs players are paid very well compared with our local players. They managed to recovered back in 2022 as they secured more project with higher charter rate. We hope that rigs renting rates will be increase further in 2023 as velesto customers willing to more if crude oil steady around usd 80 and above.
willc48 velesto most underachiever despite when oil price up. must send audit to look into OPEX
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Macgyver11
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Posted by Macgyver11 > 2022-12-09 23:56 | Report Abuse
Russia second largest oil exporter after Saudi and also one of Opec+ member.