You all should go to the AGM. The President kept saying that the rates will continue to be depressing, despite full utilisation. They also gave a non-committal answer if there will be further impairment despite all rigs will have contract. And they hope minority will continue to support them.
You should not ask me. You should ask each director and senior management how many shares they are still holding during the AGM and whether they will subscribe the right share or not since they know this business better than us. That will give you the hint on the future of this company.
He will say none . If u notice he doesn't have anything positive comments. He only picks out the negatives of every statement. That's why I'm pissed off in this forum.
All the bad news is already out, even the boss says lots of positive things but off course he has to say the reality too if certain events work against the company.
The worst may seem to be over for oil sector but it still will take some time for confidence to be back.
A few strategies one can adopt if u have the share or if u don't:-
1. Do nothing & don't get involved in this sector 2. Hold & wait for rebound, then clear out 3. Buy b4 sector recovery 4. Wait for recovery then buy
Not necessarily this stock.
If u notice, now the mgt's boss is PNB so don't expect them to go against their wishes. That's why u got the deep discount on the rights issue as they will wallup all & they have staying power unlike us.
Ask yourself who is supporting the share price now?
I have said positive things as well. Go check back my posts. Whether you see it positively and negatively, my posts are all in the form of reminder, questions for further consideration and ways to analyse this company. Why you should be upset? Do you honestly think my comments here will affect the share price?
By the way, the merger did not proceed and the price should recover to 90 sen. Any comment on that?
The first quarter result will be out soon. Can expect some improvement with so many rigs utilised but if this still fail to lift up the share price, something is very wrong here.
One of the key thing about rights issue, is that umwog will soon substantially reduce its gearing. Yes, low charter rates still need further improvements, but umwog can keep more cash from no longer paying the banks.
Which questions that I already know the answer? I asked for your comments and I can't read your mind. By the way, I thought you have left this forum and even deleted all your previous posts. What you said was correct, there is no need to delete them. A good reference to all future investors.
An EGM should be coming soon to approve the right issue. Take that opportunity to ask more questions. There should also be an advisor for minority shareholders.
Gearing of 0.5 after RI is attractive to buy. The only concern is whether oil price will drop below 40 triggering contract suspension. Having said that, now that this company is directly owned by PNB, I hope Petronas will give PNB some face and not to suspend contract as and when they like. This is a key question to ask during EGM if Petronas is still allowed or will suspend contract if oil price drop to certain level and at which level.
It will also take sometime to crawl out from negative retained earnings, at least 2 FYs because margin is thin. After that, take note that RCPS will rank higher than ordinary shares and has redemption premium. Not sure how much is left as dividend for ordinary shareholders.
i am expecting to see oil rebalancing after the OPEC meeting then for OPEC to reach agreement with USA on shale oil by end of June, this will be a great start....
Noted in the TA analyst report that only 2 rigs were working in Q1 FY17. Hopefully, the huge impairment in Q4 can help reduce the depreciation cost for Q1.
Hunter, any source to that info? I doubt US shale producers will talk to Opec as there are too many of them and don't think Donald Trump will represent them in the talk.
rijack88..long term means 5, 10, 20, 30 years? By then probably UMWOG rigs can retire and recycled to make gillette razor. So need more rights to replace old rigs, then rights issue again? I am no expert in rig biz but I m sure the rigs cannot last forever and as time goes by, most likely newer and more advance/efficient rigs would be available.
Old rigs can still win contracts. Sometime, tried and tested rigs stand a better chance, subject to meeting technical requirement. Naga 2 and Naga 3 can also be used at the sourthern North Sea area, which is generally shallow water. All their rigs can be upgraded for HPHT requirement.
hi offshore, i can't find the source. i read that there was the only permian basin shale oil that was really ramping up and profitable and OPEC just need to talk to them to balance. the others are just much smaller or not profitable because of shortage of staff and equipment cost... etc..
With only 2 rigs working in Q1 17 what do you expect? If Q2 with 5 rigs working still loss then likely the current day rate is below their breakeven point. Without the RI to reduce their debt and interest cost, it is very hard for this company to be profitable, assuming the oil price remains below USD60.
Many months ago when UMWOG was trading at around 0.95 I pointed out that the Co is financially distressed. I was scolded by a few people here for talking nonsense. I hope I don't get told off for giving my sen worth of opinion. Now with this coming rights issue, I somehow doubt it can save UMWOG because based on their last QR, the co is not even generating cash from operations to pay for the interest i.e. effectively interest is serviced by borrowings as well. The only way would be to win PROFITABLE contracts but with Petronas announcing several weeks ago that they are also going to cut production, it seems UMWOG going forward is really going to be very tough. based on announced results, 2014 was their best year, earning about RM250M. If miraculously the co managed to match that result in the future years, its EPS would only be around 3.5 sen and Fully diluted EPS around 2.6sen. One need need be a genius to guess what the price would be with that EPS. Moreover with accumulated losses of >RM1.1B it will be many many years later before the co can pay dividend. My take is wait after UMW Holdings distribution of OG shares and see whether these new shareholders will dump OG shares.
Yes, that RI itself already show how financially distressed they are. Hopefully the RI is approved by minority. Otherwise, this company will end up in pn17. There is no hurry in buying this company even if you think oil price will bounce back one day. Actually, the industry has already recovered with the acceptance of this new normal. It is this company that has not adapted to this new normal. Whatever contract they win from petronas does not help much because day rate is low, probably can allow them to be cash flow positive only but not profitable and also, petronas can always suspend at zero rate if oil price drop. This could be the reason why they had to sell Naga 1, thanks to petronas. Actually, if they have made sufficient impairment, they should be profitable after that because depreciation will reduce after impairment. I have a feeling that impairment is not sufficient.
Just read the Condensed Consolidated Statement Of Comprehensive Income For The First Quarter Ended 31st March 2017, the company needs to pay debt within 12 mths RM1,505,004,000, where they only have RM331,950,000 (NCA) + RM454,082,000 (CA) in Deposits, Cash & Bank, very stressful for paying debt within 12 mths (2017). That's why, the company issues "right issue" to generate "cash". BTW, the finance cost is high too (RM38,742,000) , the revenue only RM74,278,000. Can see that the company is having Tight finance position. Since I invested at price RM4.20 ++, I will take up the "right issue" and invest more, to "dollar cost averaging".
Maybe it's time to go in. If all rigs are employed, results won't be in until 2018. If PNB undertakes to take up all rights issue, it means umwog will be debt free after rights issues exercise in Q4 2017 and will no longer have to bear huge borrowing costs. Net operating income will rise dramatically. You need to be more careful with the assumption that umwog rigs are still unemployed, as this might be no longer be true.
I wouldn't be too sure if parent co, Umw Hldgs was dumping Umwog. Despite what the Umw Hldgs ceo said, corp exercise did look like a Pnb's move. Pnb has cash to create and sustain a fresh o&g group, and it was also to facilitate Ekuinas to exit Icon.
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offshore
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Posted by offshore > 2017-05-16 17:29 | Report Abuse
You all should go to the AGM. The President kept saying that the rates will continue to be depressing, despite full utilisation. They also gave a non-committal answer if there will be further impairment despite all rigs will have contract. And they hope minority will continue to support them.