Haha here comes the retard tengkufaisal. You bored isn't it? Watch us earn money but can't do anything coz you are broke. Anyway malas layan you. Shoo...shoo....LOL
There is no need to push the KLCI to 1800. Just at 1700 and all will be dead. HK will be worth 5 sen. HG 13 sen, HG expires in 2 months.
People ask to buy, some follow blindly and support at high premium. When the same people cut loss, they don't tell you. You are picking up their warrants.
Interest rate of 25 basis points is a quarter of a percent. Is that such a big deal, especially since the same old theme had been playing over and over again for the past 3 months? IBs and put holders like to drum up extreme bad news to make put sellable.
I am not encouraging or discouraging anyone to buy or sell. Just be careful guys. Don't be the last one to hold the baby.
My personal opinion based on all research and conclusion from various analysts.
1) I think government's plan to support the stock market is too early and unnecessary. With current klse 1600, this is just about the right PE and level, means just a correction from overly expensive level at 1880. But i look at it as the only way at the moment for government to save ringgit by boosting index to slow money outflow. BNM cannot afford to use foreign reserve to defend ringgit now and also cannot increase interest rate yet. So the government intention is to save ringgit not stock market.
2) Rate hike of fed rate at 0.25% doesn't seems high enough. But one must not forget this is a significant turning point from monetary easing to monetary tightening. And this rate hike will continue almost every half yearly until it reaches around 2-3% based on Fed estimation. This will pull back lots of US dollar which have been printed through out QE1,2,3 causing inflation in US as dollar are everywhere there and significant interest rate hike is inevitable to control the inflation rate.
3) When US rate hike, dollars will flow out from especially emerging market, local currencies will devalue and in order to stabilize the local currency, only 2 ways to counter which is using foreign reserve to intervene or increase interest rate to attract investment to sustain the currency. Using foreign reserve is too costly as significant depletion of it is very dangerous to the economy and will create domino effect. So only option left is rate increase. This will hamper economy growth of a particular country and also create huge burden on people and companies servicing loan debt. And worst case is high unemployment rate, bankruptcy and bad loan. But this is can be recovered with stimulus if government debt is not too high. Foreign reserved depletion need a very long time to accumulate thus many central banks will not risk wasting it.
4) If you think huge stock market correction will not happen this time, please think again, the world economy prosperity is boosted by QEs hot money and China progression in the past 7 years. Things especially commodities and assets have ballooned rapidly. 1 simple question, why in year 2010 and 2011 when commodities prices like copper, steel, crude oil and etc hit highest level in history and many countries still able to expend well with reasonable or good GDP expansion. But for the past 12 months commodities have dropped to very low level and yet the world economy recorded low growth and some are even contracting. Don't you think such low commodities and crude oil are equivalent to huge stimulus for economy expansion? Malaysia is a small nation and our economy is export dependent. Klse will not be spared if other stock market plummet.
5) The world has overly expanded in such a short time and production exceeded consumption since 2009. Value of stocks, assets, commodities and properties are already distorted by hot money and artificial demand. Judgement day is coming, the world need to return to a normal growth rate. The market will correct itself no matter what. Be cautions on stock market and properties as these two are still yet to correct significantly to a nominal level.
6) I predict market will not plummet when Fed increase rate. Instead, it will correct slowly side way and down all the way but with higher volatility. This might take around a year or 2 to reach bottom and wait for another catalyst to go up again. It will be a slow and painful process as long as there's no black swan event that trigger panic among the investor. I just hope our government and opposition can be more focus on managing well the economy growth and meritocracy to improve competitiveness of our country. Bless all of us.
many share intellectual view in i3 that is a good things
btw always remember market crash or recession is real not just a fairy tale story, it might happen no body know e.g brazil, greece etc
actually, fed rise rate or not is just catalyst to pin down our economy more faster, what more important : RM, oil price , global slowing down.... do u think with global slowing down KLCI can still moving forward?? of course we will slow down to, when slow down for sure index will be pull down too... that the simple expalanation
when that will happen? look china now, do you guys think the time still far away?
I think Zeti will observe at least a quarter to decide to raise rate or not after Fed rate hike. If Fed really have twice rate hike this year to 0.50% as they mentioned in June, I think we should expect a rate hike from BNM in 1st half next year. My main concern is who will replace Zeti and be the person in charge when she retires April next year.
dont be sad superb99, even if fed not implement rate after upcoming FOMC meting, still will implement within this year, china crisis will not settle in overnight, it will takes time too, moreover oil price , Rm, global slowing down, there a lot of uncertainty what will happen within this year and im sure more crisis in front of us
dont be to confident put will die, no one know what infront, what things to happen in global, fed not the only things... dont be to optimistic everything will be ok, no things 100% sure in market, it up and down..
Based on my research, Janet Yellen has to increase rate this year as she has to protect Fed Reserve integrity since she already confirm a rate hike this year. Moreover, the most important data which Fed is looking at for rate hike -consumer price index and unemployment rate already surpass their targeted level.
Normally it should be 0.25 % on each increase but maybe will do a 0.125% too which is possible after the market turmoil in August. If it's the later rate then very huge chance another rate hike in Dec.
Anyway, let's see the world most anticipated event since B.Bernanke announced end of QE in 2013.
As you may know, Holland is the origin of stock market. The dutch set up the first stock market exchange in 1606. Maybe everyone of us have to go there for pilgrim. :)
Janet has to raise rate to protect integrity of Fed? What kind of 'research' is that? Fed's job is to protect the economy of the country, not itself.
You say if rate hike is later, huge chance another hike in Dec? Are you aware if the rate is delayed, it will only be done in Dec?
With USD strengthening against most currencies, and China faltering, US goods will become expensive again with less sales or bigger discounts. Giant companies in US will see a big dip in profits.
So even if Fed target is achieved now, can it be maintained? Fed will look more 'stupid' if it raise rates only to bring it down 3 or 8 months later.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Superb99
6,603 posts
Posted by Superb99 > 2015-09-15 16:01 | Report Abuse
NJB plays black magic again