Largest Malaysia IPP Malakoff Corp is the largest IPP (independent power producer) by capacity in Malaysia. Its effective capacity of 5,346MW represents 26% of Peninsular Malaysia’s installed capacity in 2014, placing it second only behind the national off-taker Tenaga.
It owns majority stakes in five power plants (a sixth is under construction), and associate stakes in one, all of which are located along the west coast of Peninsular Malaysia.
Defensive with pockets of growth Malakoff Corp has defensive characteristics in that 1) it is primarily Malaysia-centric and 2) its PPAs (power purchase agreements) have fuel cost pass-through clauses in place. We believe Malakoff Corp could play catch-up to the theme for defensives.
There are growth opportunities. We expect Malaysia’s reserve margin to stay tight in the coming years, meaning new generation plants would still be required beyond 2020. There are also M&A opportunities. Indeed, a key reason for the listing is to deleverage, so as to have more financing leeway for new projects.
We initiate coverage with a BUY rating and a MYR2.00 TP. Our TP is derived from a sum-of parts methodology, with each entity valued on a DCF. Tanjung Bin Power contributes MYR0.90/share to our TP. On our FY16 forecasts, our TP implies an EV/EBITDA of 7.6x, a PER of 16.3x, and a net yield of 4.3%.
Malakoff share cannot goreng much, because all investors are cornerstone investors like Tabung Haji, KWSP, KWP, MMC, Great Eastern and some other big investment firms. I would suggest a mid term and long term investment.
AffinHwang Capital starts coverage on Malakoff, target RM1.92 KUALA LUMPUR (July 7): AffinHwang Capital Research has initiated coverage on Malakoff Corporation Bhd at RM1.79 with a “Hold” rating and target price of RM1.92 and said it forecasts a 2014-17 earnings CAGR of 17%, adding that it believed these positives were already priced in.
In a note today, the research house said it sees Malakoff as a decent dividend yield play with management guidance of at least 70% dividend payout.
“With a healthier balance sheet now, Malakoff is better positioned to undertake new power projects as well as pursue M&A to grow.
“Malakoff has established a good M&A track record since privatisation in 2006, notably the Macarthur Wind Farm which is a key foreign earnings driver,” it said.
Malakoff owns power/water assets in Malaysia, the MENA region and Australia. We initiate coverage on Malakoff with a BUY call and a TP of MYR2.39 (35% upside). It is the largest pure-play IPP in Peninsular Malaysia. We like Malakoff for its solid earnings visibility and stronggrowth prospects (driven by a new power plant and potentially export opportunities). Dividend yields are attractive at 4-6%.
Largest pure-play IPP. Malakoff Corp (Malakoff) is an international power and water producer. It currently owns power generation assets with a total effective generation capacity of 6,036 megawatts (MW), comprising 5,346MW in Malaysia, 480MW in the Middle East North Africa (MENA) region and 210MW in Australia, and water production capacity of 358,850 cu m/day in the MENA region. In Malaysia, it is the second-largest power producer with a market share of 18.9%, after Tenaga Nasional (TNB) (TNB MK, BUY, TP: MYR15.53) which has a market share of 39.5%. In terms of being a “pure-play” independent power producer (IPP) (which excludes TNB) in West Malaysia, Malakoff is the market leader with a 24.9% market share.
Investment case. The basis of our investment case for Malakoff are: i) its strong earnings visibility backed by long-term power purchase agreements (PPAs) signed with offtakers, ii) its earnings growth driven by Unit 4 of the Tanjung Bin power plant that will come on-stream in FY16, boosting its effective generating capacity by 17% to 7,036MW from 6,036MW , and iii) It is well-positioned to capture export opportunities given the geographical proximity to Singapore and Thailand and the availability of sites to accommodate more new power plants.
Risks to our view: i) lower-than-expected plant availability achieved (due to unscheduled outages), resulting in reduced capacity payments, ii) interruptions in fuel supply, and iii) delays in the completion of greenfield power plant projects.
We initiate coverage on Malakoff with a BUY call. Our DCF-based TP is MYR2.39 based on a discount rate that is equivalent to Malakoff’s WACC of 6.3%. Its dividend yields are attractive at 4-6% based on the current price.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
supernova
1,923 posts
Posted by supernova > 2015-06-24 08:58 | Report Abuse
kelvin got serious bullets. my portion in IPO quite hard to digest.
If im keep holding, and yet no movement, i can diversify it to other counters for quick gain
Move fast pls