@hng33 So did I. Yeah, I know about the current depressed conditions and foreign funds selling. Then the possibility of getting arm-twisted by Najib and having to buy 1MDB assets at a premium. I'm also aware that, for technical analysts, one shouldn't be buying a downturn. Also, Malakoff is still new and doesn't have enough data yet to come up with more accurate resistance and support levels etc.
But regardless of the above, I decided to take a calculated risk. Malakoff is a counter I had coveted to own since months ago, after hearing about its planned re-listing. Power generation is a rather stable business, and this is the biggest IPP in Malaysia and Southeast Asia. For the shareholders, they'd want the majority shareholder to have clout and influence with the government to take care of common interest. The pricing of electricity and fuel especially.
It's always possible for Malakoff to see foreign selling pressure again tomorrow and in the near future. Which means the shares bought today will depreciate in value. Will feel disappointed, of course. But I'm mentally prepared - this isn't a contra trade but a genuine investment which I hope to keep, and possibly add to. There's also comfort in knowing that we had bought at a discount to the IPO price - 18% less. So, regardless of the price in the coming days, I'd say it was a good buy.
Right now everyone is pessimistic and nervous, and might scoff at this - 50% capital gain from Malakoff. Doesn't look likely right now but we have seen how the market would go the other direction. Often, we'd regret and kick ourselves for not buying a good counter when it was reasonably priced, and in having the patience to wait and just let things run their course.
Why?..MALAKOFF..."MALAYSIA OFF"..Since its listed..FBMKLCI is already lost almost 250 points..1,867-1,649..hehehe..x worry..still ada 150 points to go..huhuhu
With quality counters like this, I'm going to step back and just let time do its work on the market. This isn't a speculative, contra play where you should keep a close eye. There's always the possibility Malakoff might go lower - 1.30, 1.20...1.00 even. But it will find its level and more again.
Remember IHH. Yes, totally different industry but there are also many similarities. These include "quality counter", "big capitalisation", "relatively immune to economic conditions". These are the counters that fund managers, local and especially foreign, go for. That's both good and bad - the latter as we are seeing now of what happens when they sell. But they will come again. Or other fund managers will buy when they realise the value. The conservative managers' main concern is this - preservation of capital at all times, and then the possibility of reasonable returns. Defensive, dividend-paying counters like Malakoff fit the bill. Especially at the current dividend yield.
The political uncertainties are a big drag, certainly. It's no longer a simple "BN versus Pakatan" but much more complicated. This is among the reasons why investors have pulled out capital from the stock market. But we have seen this before - of things turning the other way. When that happens, you'd want to have counters like Malakoff in your portfolio. One day in the not-too-far future, many will look back with the oft-repeated lament: "Malakoff was selling at such a low price. But I didn't buy when I had the chance..."
That was my same lament with IHH, SKPetro (when it was at 2.10 and then went well past 4.00). Don't know when the day for Malakoff will be, but it will come. There's merit to having some patience - to step back and just wait.
During times like this, fund managers and long-term investors would want to put some of their money into a counter like this. Malakoff is definitely of defensive category due to the nature of its business, as especially in the pricing of its product (electricity). Fuel prices may be uncertain but it is protected against possible future rise. All it needs to do is to ensure its plants are well-run. Today, considering how the market is, Malakoff is holding up well.
@Ong Lie Chin It "had dropped" significantly. Bad for those who had bought at the IPO or higher price. But is it necessarily the same for those who did so at a lower price?
We know the main reasons for the drop - worry about it being armtwisted by the government to buy 1MDB assets at a sucker's price. The same happened with Tenaga. Then the general across the board drop which affected almost all counters.
Malakoff had bid for some of the 1MDB assets. But it won't pay at a premium. It can always ask for various concessions from the government to make the deal better for it. Like increased selling price for electricity to Tenaga (which will be absorbed either by the government or consumers), subsidised gas and whatever else.
The fact remains that its business model is in a more comfortable position than many others at BSKL.
Thats why we need to understand the whole reason why Malakoff is being listed. Thats why when all my friends ask me. Should i buy?. I said before its listed , you buy the competitor..YTLPOWER..hehe..then YTLPOWER thats actually rallied prior Malakoff. I am not even surprise if Malakoff will be like AAX 2.0. Finally, issuing rights. Therefore, from 1.80, it will left RM 0.80 sen. I am so sorry if im being so sakastic. As the basic IPO of Malakoff is clear cut to pare off debts of MMC. Thats why whoever chase MMC prior Malakoff us actually made money. Thats why,we as small fish, we have to conduct our own due diligence. If not, we will be dried fish. Rule #1: CAPITALIST - GREED. Its not about HONESTY INTEGRITY TRANSPARENCY ANYMORE
Malakoff’s 2Q15 results, to be released on 21 August, will likely come in within our expectation of RM100m per quarter (1Q15: RM135.5m). Notable 2Q15 trend includes a 2-month planned shutdown of the Tg Bin coal-fired power plant. In all, we expect: a) stable Tg Bin capacity payment despite low plant offtake of 66% (1Q15: 88%), and b) RM10-20m higher OPEX sequentially due to cost of repair. Maintain BUY. Target price: RM2.05.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
6182al
310 posts
Posted by 6182al > 2015-08-10 12:49 | Report Abuse
looks like KLCI might touch 164..............!!!!!!!!!!!!