I think picking up now at around 0.845, 0.850 or 0.855 might be a good new base. After Huaren becoming a major stake holder, there is a possibility something is in the works.
The better earnings performance in 2021/2022 was attributed by the tax exemption mechanism introduce by gov. Afterall, the gov was trying to revive the automotive industry that was almost dying during 2020. Moreover, the deadline of the tax exemption ending June 2022 was a major final push for customer to placed their orders, with backlogs now till end 2022 with spillover into Q1 2023. As MY TIV is hovering 600k the last few years , introduction of EV will not increase the TIV. A such, the company's earning would normalise towards 2019 pre pandemic earnings. On top of that, most customers had purchase their new vehicles in 2021/2022 would not purchase another vehicle within the next 2-3 years with the current economic conditions. Looking towards US, Europe and Japan, etc, a major recession is expected in 2023 onwards, would very much confirm the outlook of the company's earning back to 2019 pre pandemic.
@flyguye If it's approved next year H1. Approval still require tendering to prospective airlines. 2023 likely a recession year, cost cutting measure will likely be in place for most airlines, on top on reduce travel spending among customers, may lead to delay implementation by airlines too. Yup, just my 2 cents.
@newbie8080, fair enough, although I foresee an uptake in travel for the next few years & also non commercial aviation sector which is huge in EU. But it's always nice to hear different perspectives.
just the big shots pushing the price down to collect, they have been doing it consistently over the last couple of weeks but hey, I could be wrong. At the end of the day, you are the master of your money.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Michael Kwok
6,435 posts
Posted by Michael Kwok > 2022-07-01 15:03 | Report Abuse
No.somemore there bonus issues 3 for 1 on june.possible downgrade to 50 cents range or worst.