Posted by darren0327 > 2020-05-29 00:36 | Report Abuse

tksw and Peace99, Thanks for the answer...

Posted by spielmacher > 2020-05-29 08:53 | Report Abuse

lets hope the price fall below 15. then all of us will makan besar next month haha

Posted by tksw > 2020-05-29 09:59 | Report Abuse

Peace sifu, oni profit kenot pay dividend la, must have $$$$$ . Ptrans gila one, pay dividend during panda mic... kakaka

Posted by Peace99 > 2020-05-29 13:37 | Report Abuse

Gila people not so stingy mah

Posted by tksw > 2020-05-29 16:10 | Report Abuse

bomb 185.... hohoho

Posted by Peace99 > 2020-05-29 16:12 | Report Abuse

Tksw sifu, the AR & QR good, no problem paying dividend. I buy and keep.

Posted by darren0327 > 2020-05-29 16:44 | Report Abuse

but this quarter very challenging. MCO no crossing state. Bus and Petrol station less demand.

Posted by zen_2k > 2020-05-29 17:17 | Report Abuse

^ agree... will have to brace for the next QR result... but I will be holding if not topping up... I believe it will have good growth over the many years in the future as it expands their business

Posted by TopEarn1 > 2020-05-29 20:53 | Report Abuse

they are paying dividend higher than their policy, which is good for investor. Its just that the price hardly able to move up due to alot contrarian?

Posted by vinc3nt > 2020-06-01 09:25 | Report Abuse

https://www.orientaldaily.com.my/news/north/2020/06/01/343554

Posted by Peace99 > 2020-06-01 10:05 | Report Abuse

Funds continue to move over to rubber gloves, and construction too

Posted by Peace99 > 2020-06-01 11:28 | Report Abuse

For me just try to keep a balance in different sectors... gloves will come down one day, and Ptrans can't keep going down.... looking forward to removal of CMCO.

Posted by Peace99 > 2020-06-01 11:33 | Report Abuse

https://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2020/06/01/waiting-for-mco-to-be-lifted

Posted by darren0327 > 2020-06-01 11:58 | Report Abuse

CMCO might extend another 2 weeks.

Posted by investingfundamental > 2020-06-01 15:36 | Report Abuse

In my opinion, it's not a good sign that they paid dividend. They currently actually have negative free cash flow because they of their large capex due to expansion. They are paying you dividend with their loans and not their operating cash flow.

There's also a large chance that they will issue more shares in the future to raise capital for more expansion. It's a very high capex company. Shareholders will most likely get diluted.

Not saying that it's a bad business though. Looking at the business alone, it has a geographic moat. Both location of the terminals are very strategic.

If you want to learn more about fundamental investing, I started a new instagram page here https://www.instagram.com/investingfundamentally/. Just to share what I have learnt.

Posted by tksw > 2020-06-01 22:39 | Report Abuse

investing sifu, cannot say they use the loan to finance capex and use the operating cash flow to pay dividend meh?

Posted by limitupupup > 2020-06-01 22:41 | Report Abuse

it's either shark collecting ticket at 18c or this stock already stay stagnant d

Posted by TopEarn1 > 2020-06-01 23:09 | Report Abuse

they are paying dividend based on the earnings from profit in a %......

Posted by investingfundamental > 2020-06-02 00:22 | Report Abuse

@tksw of course can. But technically, it's the same. If they are giving out dividend, they have less cash for expansion.

Put it in simple terms, lets say
Operating cash flow: RM 8
Cash from financing activities (money from loan): RM 10
Cash from investing activities (capex): - RM 12

Without dividend: 8 + 10 - 12 = RM 6
With dividend (assume RM 2) = 8 + 10 - 12 - 2 = RM 4

No matter whether you take the dividend from operations or from financing, at the end you're still getting the same result.

Can read this article for a better view: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4229608-why-dividend-investors-should-look-free-cash-flow.

"If free cash flow consistently fails to cover the dividend, it could be that the dividend is being funded by debt, which is almost always unsustainable over the long-term."

You wouldn't belanja your friend makan if you got so many bill to pay right? Somewhat same logic.

But of course, always do your own research and don't take my word for it hahahaha.

Posted by 8dragon > 2020-06-02 10:15 | Report Abuse

Co has no money to pay drivers and do servicing all the buses after paying merely 0.25 cents dividend....

Posted by Peace99 > 2020-06-02 10:40 | Report Abuse

AirAsia up, rubber gloves down, sign for Ptrans to go up?

Posted by Peace99 > 2020-06-02 10:41 | Report Abuse

8dragon, you think next dividend will be 0.25sen only?

Posted by Peace99 > 2020-06-02 10:43 | Report Abuse

Yesterday just said, gloves will be down one day，and today really down, aiyo!

Posted by 8dragon > 2020-06-02 10:45 | Report Abuse

Peace99, 0.15 is coming...

Posted by HappY InVest (=^x^=) > 2020-06-02 14:39 | Report Abuse

Kasi jual habis, all must sell

Posted by Peace99 > 2020-06-02 15:51 | Report Abuse

Jangan jual, will go up one, haha, not one but two.....why can AirAsia up 15%? You mean people can travel by flying, but not by bus??

Posted by Peace99 > 2020-06-02 15:52 | Report Abuse

Closing 185?

Posted by darren0327 > 2020-06-02 16:43 | Report Abuse

got lesen Pilot fly away the plane enjoying their life, no lesan bus driver keep crashing the bus until whole bus passenger injured...

Posted by Peace99 > 2020-06-02 16:47 | Report Abuse

I just bought at 180, still think situation will get better...

Posted by HappY InVest (=^x^=) > 2020-06-02 17:51 | Report Abuse

tksw, tidak wayang till AGM, dato cheong planning something, so better use fund beli minyak

Posted by viktor2u > 2020-06-02 20:03 | Report Abuse

When the price drop there are many sifu said it will drop further, they forget the KLCI is already above 1500, means the stock will turn bull run, even the lost making company share price can rise, why not ptrans, The operator just want to make you mad and sell lowing price to them. Ptrans will move once they have played enough.Just hold tight.

Posted by Peace99 > 2020-06-02 22:34 | Report Abuse

I'm relatively new, so feel good to have you guys who also think positively about this bus!

Posted by Peace99 > 2020-06-02 22:57 | Report Abuse

Investing fundamental, pls don't mind my question for you about belanja makan! Let's say my good friend pinjam me 24k, interest free, and I use 12k for renting and maintaining a car for a year to work as grab driver. And remaining 12k for living for a year. Let's say I make 3k profit for 1st month, and I pay back 2k to my friend. To show gratitude, I belanja my friend, and use 0.95k to buy Ptrans share. I work hard and every month I maintain the same pattern, so at end of year debt cleared, friend happy, and I have more than 10k share. Belanja makan is like giving dividend while in debt. Sensible?

Posted by zen_2k > 2020-06-02 23:42 | Report Abuse

seems sensible, but u hav to factor in in real life no pinjaman is interest free... so provided that income cash flow is higher than interest paid and dividend given, ptrans should be ok..?

Posted by investingfundamental > 2020-06-03 00:24 | Report Abuse

@peace99 Good question. Answer is gonna be a bit long but bear with me. First, I think your capex (renting car and living expenses I assume) is a bit low and can be covered using the profit. If capex can be covered by profits then don't need to take loan already. Let's assume total capex is 36k.

First, let's break it down all to monthly

Profit = 3000
Interest expense = -2000 (pay back your friend)
-------------------
Actual profit = 1000
-------------------
Let's assume your car and living is your capex. Make them into monthly then it'll be 3000, so

Actual profit = 1000
Capex = -3000
-----------
Free cash flow (fcf) = -2000 per month
"dividend" = -1000 (belanja makan and ptrans share)
Total = -3000
-----------
Your loan = 24000

Correct so far?

So the question now is, is it sustainable? Can your loan cover your negative FCF and the dividend forever? Based on this scenario, you won't be able to. You can only cover the "dividend" for 8 months (24000/3000 = 8). So for the rest of the year, you'll need to take another loan to cover not only your negative FCF, but also the "dividend" if you still wanna pay. This will increase your interest expense because you need to pay for the old loan from your friend and another new loan, thus lowering your profit.

But if you don't pay the dividend, your loan can last for the entire year (24/2 = 12) and don't need to take more loan.

This example is a bit simplistic though, I admit.

But basically as a company, if you have negative FCF and continue paying dividends, you're actually using your loans to pay dividends and will "deplete" your loans faster. What can you do? Take on more debt, which isn't healthy. Up until the company has positive free cash flow, only then can the company use less debt and can pay dividends freely.

Posted by investingfundamental > 2020-06-03 00:25 | Report Abuse

Wah pretty damn long. Hope I didn't miss anything. Also, note that I am not a professional. I just enjoy fundamental investing. So if I get it wrong, sorry in advance!

Posted by investingfundamental > 2020-06-03 00:29 | Report Abuse

By the way, negative FCF isn't necessarily a bad thing since ptrans is expanding. But paying dividends while have negative FCF is not really good imo

Posted by HappY InVest (=^x^=) > 2020-06-03 08:53 | Report Abuse

dorang bayar dividen ko bising, x bayar ko bising juga, payah nak layan ni. kasi jual semua je, beli kaunter2 minyak atau kaunter 5g lagi cun.

Posted by Peace99 > 2020-06-03 09:57 | Report Abuse

Investing fundamental, wow, thanks alot for detailed reply.... will read carefully later.need time to digest, to Google. Happy invest, orang kena naik bas juga, boleh simpan separuh di Ptrans kan?

Posted by HappY InVest (=^x^=) > 2020-06-03 10:59 | Report Abuse

Peace, bila AGM ni, dah hampir sebulan x lak berita, dato cabut lari kah?

Posted by Peace99 > 2020-06-03 12:03 | Report Abuse

Betul, dah lama ni....tapi ingat tauke want to play safe and so tunggu sampai ccmo over? I think tauke very focus on this business, tak lari lah. Aku pun tak lari, sabar optimistic, haha

Posted by Peace99 > 2020-06-03 13:14 | Report Abuse

Investing fundamental, tks again for taking my question seriously, and your effort in showing meaning of technical terms. For now, I will use mostly daily life terms as am more comfortable with them, but follow your scenerio. was sloppy in calling the 3k/month from grab driving profit, but guess income/revenue is more proper. Now car rental and living is 36k/year, as you said. If my friend pinjam me 24k, and I take a loan of 12k whose annual interest is 5% (so interest= rm 600). In this case, at the end of 1 year, I am in debt of just 600. So, don't get how "your loan=24000". Can you clarify from my perspective? (Your analysis is monthly, which should give same result, but a bit hard for me to follow at the moment.)

Posted by HappY InVest (=^x^=) > 2020-06-03 13:26 | Report Abuse

Sekarang hotel business dah macam nak mampui, shopping mall business macam masih boleh tahan, cinema x boleh buka lagi, indoor sukan x boleh lagi, so jangan happy sangat dgn counter ni, belum tiba masa dia meletup.

Posted by LuckyGor > 2020-06-03 13:47 | Report Abuse

@investingfundamental, from where you see Ptrans has negative operating cash flow?

Annual report 2019 states Ptrans has positive operating cash flow of $62.6 millions.
Quarterly report March 2020 shows positive operating cash flow of $7 millions.

Correct me if I am wrong.

Posted by Peace99 > 2020-06-03 13:50 | Report Abuse

Zen2k, tks, I think Ptrans ok also, let's wait for investing fundamental reply.

Posted by HappY InVest (=^x^=) > 2020-06-03 14:18 | Report Abuse

LuckyGor， dia cakap pasal FCF. Of coz syarikat yang strong generate angka FCF positif yang tinggi. Ini syarikat tengah membangun, klau harap tiap2 QR FCF cantik, saya rekomen beli pentamaster.

Posted by investingfundamental > 2020-06-03 14:33 | Report Abuse

@luckygor yeah. Happy invest is right. Was talking about Free cash flow, which is negative due to large capex. But yes operating cash flow has been positive and has been growing, which is great!

Again, not saying ptrans is a bad business (or a good business). And not saying negative FCF is bad, especially when a company is growing.

Just that paying dividend while having negative FCF is something to look out for. I would say it's a grey area. Your judgement for this company should be based on a lot of other things. Pls pls pls don't take my word for it. I'm not recommending any calls on this. Don't wanna be the wrong reason y'all to lose money.

@peace99 maybe you can dm me on instagram and we can start from scratch? Don't wanna flood this chat space anymore.

Posted by tksw > 2020-06-03 15:06 | Report Abuse

HappY sifu, you think dato can deng 180 for how long? kakaka, tiap tiap hali kena bomb

Posted by darren0327 > 2020-06-03 15:06 | Report Abuse

who keep selling at 0.18??? can't hold and wait meh???

Posted by HappY InVest (=^x^=) > 2020-06-03 15:43 | Report Abuse

tksw, saya dah email ptrans tanya gf dato bila nak agm ni, saya rasa dato main wayang ni.