Today Ptrans closed with a long-legged doji after a series of downtrend. This might signal a reverse in trend from its immediate trend. Tomorrow will be crucial. All the best to all holders. I've made my choice and I've to live with it.
This is a long term stock. The company has so much potential in the future, no competitor(bigger one), and the businesses are diversified. Invest regularly and you shall get stable returns.
Currently, PTRANS has two logistics tenants taking up 30~40% of Terminal Meru Raya and 10% of Kampar Putra Sentral. PTRANS will earn from the greater of percentage of revenue share or RM500k/month (for customer B) and RM150k/month (for the smaller customer U). While management is guiding a monthly contribution of RM2.5m to RM3m from the logistics business, we conservatively estimate RM1m monthly contribution for now. PTRANS hopes to bring on more logistics tenants to beef up the occupancy at Kampar Putra Sentral, which currently stands at 60% (vs. our full-year expectation of 70%). (Kenanga)
This alone conservatively will contribute 3M/Q and push to Q profit to 16-17m. Push the EPS from 2.15 to 2.6?
danchong, thank you for great update! Haven't been following closely cos confident with Ptrans. Think the recent covid news drive market down again. But logistic should be in demand, so good to have such revenue stream from logistics!
this counter is kind of enabling you to sleep peacefully without worrying too much, at least it is proven covid impactless since the commercial operation of Kampar new terminal
Short term feel good factors: 1. Quarterly giving out dividends (5% yield) 2. solid contributions from logistic tenants @ 2 terminals + more tenants to come 3. Potential 3-4 terminal agreements in 2022 4. Increasing footfalls at Kampar terminal
Longer term 1. Upcoming new Bidor terminal with construction to be completed in 2023
I've been investing in Bursa since 2012 July 2021 was my first time of learning TA seriously and putting it to good use and so far I'm very happy with the results.
There seems to be uncertainty in PTrans's price action last week as a whole. We should be able to hazard a guess its direction by Thursday the latest, although I can say PTrans has been heavily oversold last week and perhaps there's a chance for a rebound to happen.
As long as there is no accounting fraud (SD), or risk of losing big customers due to ESG risk (ATA), or ESG concern over palm oil industry, I am continue to add little by little over this counter.
why the price stay low? let's do some calculations.
Total number of shares: 634,733,573
warrant : 158,683,393 (conversion price 0.75)
Assume the fair price is RM0.80 I think a lot of people will say it is still low.
Total cost to buy up the business is Total number of share plus warren: 634733573+158683393=793,416,966 market caps = 0.8*793416966= 634million
Debts: 300M Cash: ~200M (per q3 report have ~90m cash, warren conversion will gather 120M).
enterprise value is market cap + debt - cash = 634m+300m-200m =734M.
734M buy you 2 terminal is a good deal?
the current share price is RM0.6, which values the company at ~387M. EV at around 587M.
the warrant with conversion price at 0.75, and 300M debt is a big roadblock for the share price to go up. may the company able to release the value for Kampar Putra Sentral to push up the valuation for this asset.
I personally hardly use EV method nowadays. Even though it used to give little help for someone to buy out as a whole of the business, and yet it is still considered not decisive one.
Let’s refer back to stock market, why it has become bit of irrelevant today? Because it does not consider the profitability of a business at all, be it current or future one.
For example, Scicom NTA is 0.30, now priced at 1.12, overvalued?
How about Tesla? Meta? Alphabet? Extremely overpriced?
PTRANS is a good company. I did invest in this company as well and it is my defensive stock choice. Steady income and dividend. I hope their business model works well and the management is able to source more terminals to manage. Project facilitation fee is a big sum of revenue and we do not know if this income stream is consistent over coming years? Their interview with ET Online, said they target 50% of the market share. and it should last ~5 years.
I think there is always a reason for a stock to become "undervalued". it might be a misunderstanding from Mr, market, and we need to know what is point Mr, market misunderstood the stock. I think this helps an investor to hold on when the stock price is falling and avoid value trap.
A lot of people who invested in this stock will consider the stock was undervalued "a lot". But how much is it undervalued? Is it really fair for analysts to give a targeted price of RM1.XX where they used Airport as reference. Bus terminal vs airport terminal, really can compare like it is?
We all know the only solid reason for a stock to go up is the company going to make more money. but how that money is used will influence the value of the company as well. payback debt, reinvest in high Capex business, distribute to shareholders, etc.
just trying to access the company from a different point of view.
Doublesunday this is definitely undervalue stock, you said you access the company from a different point of view, how come you wont know now the market sentiment dropping is due to worries of omicron, stamp duty impose by budget 2022, FED will start to stop QE and speed up increase Interest rate during FOMC meeting? You cant just ignore those and said its company problem! Inflation increase also one of the reason we need to concern money will flow out the market for your living cost! Its not company not do well, its show you financial report and profit they make have improved with new tenant new customer. Debt is for first invest, and get reward in future. You cant ignore the future grow!
1) Rental from logistic customers, with minimum of RM650k per month for now, started from September 2021, with potential of higher amount in coming months.
PTRANS has two logistics tenants taking up 30~40% of Terminal Meru Raya and 10% of Kampar Putra Sentral. PTRANS will earn from the greater of percentage of revenue share or RM500k/month (for customer B) and RM150k/month (for the smaller customer U). PTRANS hopes to bring on more logistics tenants to beef up the occupancy at Kampar Putra Sentral, which currently stands at 60% (vs. our full-year expectation of 70%).
2) 3 to 4 contracts on Terminal Management Services (TMS)
management is expecting 3 to 4 contracts next year. Estimated yearly contribution of at least RM3~4 mil upon fully execution.
Logistic customer A minimum 500k per month, customer B 100k per months, its show in slide of presentation of Q3 discussion, and logistic customer also based on profit sharing which ever is higher than can earn more than 650k per month.
The Group reported marginally higher revenue of RM35.2m for 3QFY21 due to higher rental income from leasing of commercial area in Terminal Meru Raya and Kampar Putra Sentral to new logistic tenants which commenced in Sept 2021. The leasing is on percentage rent basis and is expected to contribute around RM2.5m-RM3.0m per month, subject to the growth of the logistic tenants. The higher rental income was partly offset by lower project facilitation fee (PFF) of RM11.8m (3Q20: RM14m), bus operations of RM5.5m (3Q20: RM6.5m) and petrol station operations of RM5.3m (2Q20: RM6.6m).
From 7th Dec 2021 until 4th January 2022, the price of PTRANS was stagnant and consolidated after the November 2021 downswing. However, in recent days, the price has been moving up slowly, accompanied by comparatively greater volume. The past four days' volume were 1.1m, 1.3m, 1m, and 1.2m respectively. However, today the counter experienced a significantly smaller volume of only 335k, indicating that investors are accumulating and keeping this stock.
The MACD line has crossed above the signal line on 24th December 2021. The gap between the MACD and signal line has widen. This means we can expect the positive momentum to continue in the coming days, represented by larger histograms. The MACD and signal lines are approaching and moving above the zero line, indicating a strong bullish signal.
The RSI is now above 50, indicating an uptrend. We can reasonably expect a GOLDEN CROSS to happen between the 20-day MA line and 50-day MA line soon. When that happens, the price is expected to soar.
The share price has stabilized above 0.60 cents. The increase in share price is sustainable. Any fall in price is minimal, and will be cushioned by the forthcoming 0.0082 dividend (Ex Date 25 Jan 2022). Going forward, the market can reasonably expect PTRANS to announce better results in February 2022, arising from the re-opening of all sectors of its business.
I am a first year accounting student. This is my first posting.
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
moneySIFU
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Posted by moneySIFU > 2021-11-25 14:45 | Report Abuse
Cheap sale? Continue add little