Posted by stockraider > 2015-02-08 12:26 | Report Abuse
Graham, Chapter 20:
Chapter 20 is entitled "Margin of Safety as the Central Concept of Investment" (p. 512).
I think this chapter sums up Graham's investing philosophy.
He not only covers the risk of buying a good quality stock at a high price, but buying a poor quality stock at a high price during an up-trending market.
The latter is one of the riskier moves you can do with your money in the context of the margin-of-safety.
On the other hand, purchasing stock in a good quality company, even if it's at a high price, will ultimately end up being the better choice. THIS RAIDER THINK GOT 2 WEAKNESSES...1) GENERALLY THIS TYPE OF STOCK HAD LOW OR NO MARGIN OF SAFETY..IN ORDER FOR INVESTOR TO GET IN WITH MARGIN OF SAFETY....U NEED TO WAIT FOR FAT PITCH...WHICH NORMALLY DURING BIG MARKET CORRECTION OR THE SPECIFIC STOCK SUFFER FROM INHERENT DIFFICULTY IN ORDER TO GET IN WITH MARGIN OF SAFETY LOH....!!
BUT U THINK ABOUT IT THAT DURING "BIG MARKET CORRECTION TO GET IN"....DON U THINK THE NORMAL STOCK ALREADY HAD BIG MARGIN SAFETY.......WILL HAVE EVEN BIGGER MARGIN OF SAFETY....IS IT NOT BETTER TO BUY THESE TYPE STOCKS ?
2) THE OTHER MISTAKE.....WHILE INVESTOR WAITING FOR FAT PITCH ON QUALITY STOCK.....TO PUT THE MONIES TO WORK....HE MAY MISSED THE OPPORTUNITY TO MAKE A GOOD RETURN FROM PLENTY OF MARGIN OF SAFETY STOCK AROUND.
One other important point in this chapter is the mention of diversification as a tool of safety, not perfection.
While he doesn't go into specific methods of diversification, Graham does point out that even if one stock tanks, diversifying your portfolio "guarantees only that (you) have a better chance for profit than for loss - not that loss is impossible" (p. 518)
Posted by stockraider > 2015-02-08 12:27 | Report Abuse
In a typical case of bear-market hysteria or pessimism the investor would be better off if he were not able to sell out so readily; in fact, he is often better off if he does not even know what changes are taking place in the market price of his securities.
- Benjamin Graham, Security Analysis
THE ABOVE IS REALLY TRUE IF U R A LONG TERM PASSIVE INVESTOR LOH.....!!!
HOWEVER IT MAY NOT BE REALLY TRUE FOR INVESTOR IF TRY TO MAXIMISE RETURN & MINIMISE LOSSES
Graham’s sentiment on holding onto securities in a bear market could have taken a huge chunk out of someone’s portfolio this year (2008), I know holding onto crashing stocks has severly hurt my portfolio. However at this state of the bear market I believe the above quote is appropriate.
IN CRASHING MARKET....EVEN IT U HOLD TO B GRAHAM PRINCIPLE....IT IS A GOOD PRACTISE TO SELL SOME OF YOUR PORTFOLIO.....TO REDUCE YOUR PAIN & SUFFERING. HOWEVER NOT YOUR ENTIRE STOCKHOLDING....BCOS IN THE LONG RUN....HOLDING STOCK ALWAYS WINS MAH.....!!
THE SELLING BESIDE REDUCE YOUR EQUITY EXPOSURE BUT ALSO INCREASES YOUR WAR CHEST TO BE USED LATER.
U CAN ALWAYS BUY BACK THOSE U HAVE SOLD AT A PROFIT LATER MAH....!!
BUT WHAT RAIDER DESCRIBE .....INVOLVE ALOT OF SKILLS & GOOD EMOTIONAL MAKE UP. THERE ARE CONDITIONS SOME INVESTORS SUFFER INVESTMENT PARALYSIS TOO.....AFTER SELLING DURING MARKET CRASHES. A GOOD EXAMPLE IS TAN TEONG BOO OF ICAP.....UNABLE TO GET BACK IN AFTER SELLING AFTER 6 TO 7 YRS.
IF U HAVE THIS PROBLEM, THEN IT IS BETTER FOR U FINANCIALLY TO DO NOTHING & RIDE IT OUT LOH....!!
It is ill-advised at this moment in time to liquidate investments into weakness. Your portfolio may depreciate in the coming months, but sometimes you have to take a 3 month deep breath and try your best to not follow your stock prices on a daily basis and just enjoy your dividend yields! To do this you have to be sure that your portfolio is filled with strong, value stocks with years of consistent earnings growth. Ignoring equity prices does not mean you should ignore the latest news from stocks you own. Shares should be sold if there is a fundamental shift in the companies’ long-term outlook.
Even though Warren Buffet’s 2 month-old investment in Goldman Sachs (GS) at $115 a share has fallen almost in half to $65 a share, I’m willing to bet he is sleeping well at night knowing he is invested in a first-in class company (although the investment banking class may be gone forever) and enjoying a 10% dividend yield from his preferred stock. YES LONG TERM INVESTOR CAN FIND SOLACE WITH MARGIN OF SAFETY GUIDANCE LOH....!!
BUT INVESTOR WITH A WAR CHEST WILL GLARING EXCITING TIME IN THE BARGAIN GALORE USING THE AMMUNITION OF CASH HE HAVE RAISED B4 & DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE STOCK MKT CRASH MAH....!!
Posted by stockraider > 2015-02-08 12:27 | Report Abuse
Value" stocks = low PE, low P/NTA
Buying "value" stocks (as defined) IS NOT value investing.
You must have the ability to value a stock (give it an intrinsic value).
Then, compare this with the price.
Value investing is when you are buying at a price that is very much lower than your perceived or derived intrinsic value for the asset (this is also the margin of safety).
You should stay within your circle of competence.
For certain stocks, based on various reasons, you may not be able to calculate their intrinsic values.
Do you know your circle of competence?
YES CIRCLE OF COMPETENCE IS VERY IMPORTANT LOH....IF U LIKE SHOPPING FOR BARGAIN...U ASK YOURSELF WHETHER AEON OR PARKSON IS A GOOD BUSINESS TO INVEST.
WHETHER BONIA, PADINI, CHEETAH, JERASIA ARE GOOD BRANDS OR BUSINESS LOH...!!
LIKEWISE IF U R BANKER.....U KNOW BANKS. ....ELECTRICIAN.....ELECTRICAL BUSINESS MAH...!!
IF STICK TO CIRCLE OF COMPETENCE U AVOID MAKING UNFORCED ERRORS IN YOUR INVESTMENT LOH....!!
AS WARREN BUFFET.....IF U KNOW THE BUSINESS....REALLY REALLY WELL....IT IS NOT RISK ANYMORE LOH....!!
Posted by stockraider > 2015-02-08 12:29 | Report Abuse
Do you know how to minimize the odds of suffering irreversible losses? YES....CIRCLE OF COMPETENCE....MARGIN OF SAFETY....MR MARKET..!!
Do you know how to maximize the odds of achieving sustainable gains? CIRCLE OF COMPETENCE....MARGIN OF SAFETY....MR MARKET..!!
Do you know how to maximize the odds of achieving sustainable gains? YES...LONGER TERM INVESTMENT....YIELD...GROWTH..SUSTAINAB LE MOAT
Do you know how to control self-defeating behaviour that keeps most from reaching their full potential in investing?...PATIENT & DISCIPLINE
Do you know that intelligent investing does not refer to IQ but rather to being patient, disciplined and eager to learn, and able to harness your emotions and think for yourself? YES.....IT BATTLE....ALWAYS GO FOR WINNING THE WAR & NOT WINNING EACH BATTLE MAH...!!
Do you know that high IQ and higher education are not enought to make an investor intelligent? STREET BUSINESS SMART IS BETTER LOH !!
Do you know that being an intelligent investor is more a matter of 'character' than 'brain'? AS ABOVE
Do you know the investment techniques, the adoption and execution of an investment policy suitable for laymen (yourself)? YES....BE PASSIVE & AVOID UNFORCED ERRORS
Do you know the investment principles and investors' attitudes maybe of greater importance in investing than the technique of analyzing securities? AGAIN RAIDER SAY U MUST ALWAYS RISK ADVERSE TO AVOID LOSSES. U ONLY BET HEAVY WHEN REWARD IS MUCH MORE THAN LOSSES...!!
Do you know that there is limited usefulness in reading a book on 'how to make a million', as there are no sure and easy paths to riches on the stock market here and anywhere else? STOCKMARKET TO BE SUCCESSFUL...U CANNOT FORCE IT...U NEED TO FLOW WITH IT MAH...!!
Do you know of any single person who has consistently or lastingly made money by 'following (timing) the market'? YES...RAIDER LOH..!!
Do you know how to guide yourself from the areas of possible substantial error and to develop policies with which you will be comfortable? YES...RAIDER MARGIN OF SAFETY PRINCIPLE....LEECH TECH....STOP TECH....CONTRAIAN INVESTMENT APP...CIRCLE OF COMPETENT LOH...!! PSYCHOLOGY READING OF THE MARKET.
Do you know the investor's chief problem -- and even his worst enemy -- is likely to be himself? IMPATIENT, NOT DISCIPLINE...NOT FOLLOW SYSTEM & SET OF INVESTMENT RULES...!!
Do you know the importance of psychology of investors and the field of behavioural finance in guiding investing? YES...' RAIDER THE BIGGEST BULL THREAD" A BIG CHUNKED BASED ON INVESTMENT BEHAVIOR...!!
Do you know how to measure or quantify value of business or stock?
Do you know having the habit of relating what is paid to what is being offered is an invaluable trait in investment?
Do you know that for 99 issues out of 100, you could say that at some price they are cheap enough to buy and at other price they would be so dear that they should be sold?
Do you know that the art of investment has one characteristic that is not generally appreciated; that a creditable, if unspectacular, result can be achieved by the lay investor with a minimum of effort and capability? YES PASSIVE TECH AND AVOID UNENFORCED ERROR LOH...!!
Do you know that to improve on this above easily attainable standard requires much application and more than a trace of wisdom? YES...U NEED ALOT OF EXPERIENCE & STRATEGY TO REALLY BEAT THE PASSIVE INVESTOR USING DEFENSIVE TECH....!!
Do you know that if you merely try to bring just a little extra knowledge and cleverness to bear upon your investment program, instead of realizing a little better than normal results, you may well find that you have done worse?
Read: The Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Graham
RAIDER HAD GIVEN SOME OF THE POINT U NEED TO BE COMPETENT IN ORDER TO WIN IN THE MARKET.
THE TECH RAIDER DESCRIBE EVEN IF U R AN INVESTOR, TRADER & SPECULATOR IF U FOLLOW A SUCCESSFUL SYSTEM....U STILL CAN BE A BETTER MARKET PLAYER MAH.....!!
Posted by stockraider > 2015-02-08 12:30 | Report Abuse
3i Investing Whispers - 3 legs of Margin of Safety of 3i (Dedicated to Raider)
« Reply #8000 on: Today at 09:58:16 AM »
Reply with quoteQuote
Yes, this is the single most important thing you should know in investing.
ALWAYS buy with a margin of safety. Margin of safety issues are both qualitative and quantitative.
Let me show where I look for these margin of safety factors in my stock selection. There are 3 areas where one should look for margin of safety. Let's call these the 3 legs of Margin of Safety of 3i. Smiley Here they are.
1. QUALITY (Good to great quality growth stocks, with durable competitive advantage)
2. MANAGEMENT (Managers with integrity, intelligence and hardworking. Operational efficiency: Profit margin trends, ROE trends, and D/E trends that are good/great, maintained or improving)
3. VALUATION (Fair to bargain prices for Great companies, Big bargain prices for good companies.)
Well, choose your picks.
Yes, you can get great bargains too in foraging in gruesome companies that are selling at big bargain prices. Often, many of these remain gruesome and the prices may even continue to go down more due to fundamental deterioration in their businesses.
You have a build in margin of safety, IF you have the ability to pick good or great stocks that are selling at bargain or fair prices, especially when your investing horizon in holding these stocks are for the long term (>5 years). Warren Buffett teaches another margin of safety criteria of his own - that it is better to buy a great stock at fair price, than a fair stock at great price. Surely, he did not preach this without a basis.
If you dwell deeper into this statement, although many may look at this from the superior returns that the great stock offer over the good stock, though bought at perceived fair price (instead of bargain prices for a good stock), it is just another way of saying that the margin of safety for great stocks is better than for a good stock. you are more certain of the growth and earnings power of the great companies. This high probability of being right in projecting the earning power of the great companies is where the margin of safety lies.
In the gruesome company, they are termed gruesome because their earning power were non-existent, deteriorating or even un-predictable over the short or the long term.
I advise that if the companies you study fail in the QUALITY AND MANAGEMENT ISSUES, don't bother with the valuation. Keep the study and proceed no further with its valuation since we are only seeking to invest in stocks for the long term. There are so many other stocks to study for your LONG TERM portfolio. Your long term portfolio should only include the best quality stocks that are projected to deliver returns of > 15% or more per year (with reinvestment of the dividends).
When would you buy these stocks that have satisfied the quality and management issues (the first and second legs of the margin of safety) and that you have in your "to invest" list? Yes, you then look for a good price to buy, the third and last leg of margin of safety. This is when the price offered promises safety of capital (upside reward: downside risk of > 3:1) and a projected annualised return of > 15% per year.
Posted by stockraider > 2015-02-08 12:31 | Report Abuse
Putting the 3 legs of margin of safety issues of 3i into perspective.
1. I am looking to populate or invite a company to join my esteem group of great companies in my portfolio for the LONG TERM.
2. I stress on 3 legs of margin of safety issues.
3. The first and second legs of my Margin of Safety issues of 3i look at QUALITY AND MANAGEMENT
4. Why are they important? These qualities will allow me to predict their earning power, the most important thing that is going to deliver great returns to my portfolio.
5. The third or last leg of my Margin of Safety issues of 3i is also important. By buying at low prices, my upside: downside ratio is in my favour (I want at least >3:1, needs a lot of patience), thereby protecting my downside. A lower price gives me an additional return when the stock is revalued at its fair price.
6. One is investing for the long term, and often if the stock is a great stock with great earning power, you virtually need not have to sell. The total return after many years is mainly contributed by its earnings power, the great bargain price you bought into offer you an additional short term gain, which contributes a little only to the overall return over the long term, (though it was a big return over the short term.)
7. Stay focus on the long term.
Best wishes to Raider in his investing.
RAIDER COMMENT : IN FACT RAIDER IS PRACTISING THE SAME THING 3I PREACHES.....!!
BUT U MUST UNDERSTAND THE CENTRAL CORE OF INVESTMENT IS " MARGIN OF SAFETY MAH!!".....WITH UNDERSTANDING MARGIN OF SAFETY U CAN BUY ANYTHING.....INCLUDING GRUSOME COMPANY LOH....!!!
A GOOD EXAMPLE IF U HAD BOUGHT LCTH, PMCORP AND EFORCE 3 YRS BACK AND HOLD UNTIL NOW....YOUR RETURN WOULD NOT BE LESS THAN HOLDING ONTO NESTLE, DLADY, PET DAG FOR THE SAME PERIOD MAH...!!
WHY IS THAT SO ?
THE CONCEPT OF HUGE MARGIN OF SAFETY DISCOUNT AT WORK LOH....!!
THE 3 GRUESOME COMPANIES 3I DISLIKE HAVE HUGE MARGIN OF SAFETY LOH....!!
IF U STICK TO 3 PILLAR, OF INVESTMENT 3I DESCRIBE U STILL CAN MAKE MONIES.....BUT U NEED TO WAIT VERY MUCH LONGER FOR U TO SWING LOH....!!
WHY ??
BCOS ALL THESE COMPANIES WOULD NOT HAVE MUCH MARGIN OF SAFETY AT THE TIME OF "NORMAL PURCHASE"...BCOS ALOT OF FUNDS ARE MONITORING IT TOO....!!
RAIDER U CAN BUY THESE TYPE STOCK WITH MARGIN OF SAFETY IN THE SITUATION!!
1) WHEN THERE IS BLOOD IN THE STREET, DURING PANIC & MARKET SELLOFF
2) WHEN THE SPECIFIC STOCK IS IN TEMPORARY TROUBLE LIKE IN THE CASE OF F&N WHEN THEY LOST THE " COCA-COLA FRANCHISE LOH"
THE ABOVE 2 CONDITION IS ONLY CONDUCIVE FOR BLUECHIPS STOCK PICKING BUT TRICKY LOH, THE INDIVIDUAL INVESTOR NEED TO HAVE THE SKILL & LUCK TO PICK DISCOUNT ON MARGIN OF SAFETY FOR THIS TYPE OF 3I STOCK WHICH IS NOT VERY COMMON & DURING COMPLICATED SITUATION.
IT IS BETTER FOR ORDINARY INVESTOR TO BUY MARGIN OF SAFETY STOCK WITHOUT ANY DISCRIMATION MAH BUT ON CONDITION IT HAS STRONG BALANCE SHEET LOH....!!
Posted by stockraider > 2015-02-08 12:34 | Report Abuse
Stock Trading Rules
Jesse Livermore’s Trading Rules
Here are the stock trading rules that made Jesse Livermore’s one of the world’s greatest fortunes. Many successful stock and commodity traders still base their methods on these rules.
Livermore constructed his rules over several years, while learning by trial and error what worked on the markets. He was guided by one of his favorite principles:
“There is nothing new in Wall Street. There can’t be because speculation is as old as the hills. Whatever happens in the stock market today has happened before and will happen again.”
Stock Trading Rules
Buy rising stocks and sell falling stocks.
Do not trade every day of every year.
Trade only when the market is clearly bullish or bearish.
Trade in the direction of the general market.
If it’s rising you should be long, if it’s falling you should be short.
Co-ordinate your trading activity with pivot points.
Only enter a trade after the action of the market confirms your opinion and then enter promptly.
Continue with trades that show you a profit, end trades that show a loss.
End trades when it is clear that the trend you are profiting from is over.
In any sector, trade the leading stock – the one showing the strongest trend.
Never average losses by, for example, buying more of a stock that has fallen.
Never meet a margin call – get out of the trade.
Go long when stocks reach a new high. Sell short when they reach a new low.
Other Useful Stock Trading Guidance
Don’t become an involuntary investor by holding onto stocks whose price has fallen.
A stock is never too high to buy and never too low to short.
Markets are never wrong – opinions often are.
The highest profits are made in trades that show a profit right from the start.
No trading rules will deliver a profit 100 percent of the time.
Posted by stockraider > 2015-02-08 12:35 | Report Abuse
Jesse Livermore: Lessons From A Legendary Trader
Born in 1877, Jesse Livermore is one of the greatest traders that few people know about. While a book on his life written by Edwin Lefèvre, "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator" (1923), is highly regarded as a must-read for all traders, it deserves more than a passing recommendation. Livermore, who is the author of "How to Trade in Stocks"(1940), was one of the greatest traders of all time. At his peak in 1929, Jesse Livermore was worth $100 million, which in today's dollars roughly equates to $1.5-13 billion, depending on the index used.
The enormity of his success becomes even more staggering when considering that he traded on his own, using his own funds, his own system, and not trading anyone else's capital in conjunction. There is no question that times have changed since Mr. Livermore traded stocks and commodities. Markets were thinly traded, compared to today, and the moves volatile. Jesse speaks of sliding major stocks multiple points with the purchase or sale of 1,000 shares. And yet, despite the difference in the markets, such automation increased liquidity, technology, regulation and a host of other factors that still drive the markets today.
The Test of Time
Given that this trader's rules still apply, and the price patterns he looked for are still very relevant today, we will look at a summary of the patterns Jesse traded, as well his timing indicators and trading rules. (For more classic and lesser-known investing titles to add to your collection, check out Investing Books It Pays To Read.)
Price Patterns
Jesse did not have the convenience of modern-day charts to graph his price patterns. Instead, the patterns were simply prices that he kept track of in a ledger. He only liked trading in stocks that were moving in a trend, and avoided ranging markets. When prices approached a pivotal point, he waited to see how they reacted.
For instance, if a stock made a $50 low, bounced up to $60 and was now heading back down to $50, Jesse's rules stipulated waiting until the pivotal point was in play in order to trade. If that same stock moved to $48, he would enter a trade on the short side. If it bounced up off the $50 level, he would enter long at $52, closely watching the $60 level, which is also a "pivotal point." A rise above $60 would trigger an addition to the position (pyramiding) at $63, for example. Failure to penetrate or hold above $60 would result in a liquidation of the long positions. The $2 buffer on the breakout in this example is not exact; the buffer will differ based on stock price and volatility. We want a buffer between actual breakout and entry that allows us to get into the move early, but will result in fewer false breakouts
Posted by stockraider > 2015-02-08 12:36 | Report Abuse
While Jesse did not trade ranges, he did trade breakouts from ranging markets. He used a similar strategy as above, entering on a new high or low but using a buffer to reduce the likelihood of false breakouts. (Find more profitable entry and exit locations with this standard indicator; read Measure Volatility With Average True Range.)
Price patterns, combined with volume analysis, were also used to determine if the trade would be kept open. Some of the criteria Jesse used to determine if he was in the right position were:
Increased volume on breakout.
The first few days after the break prices should move in the breakout direction
A normal reaction occurs where prices retrace somewhat against the trend, but volume is lower on retracements than it was in the trending direction.
As the normal reaction ends, volume increases once again in the direction of the trend.
Deviations from these patterns were warning signals and, if confirmed by price movements back through pivotal points, indicated that exited or unrealized profits should be taken. (For more read our Greatest Investors Tutorial.)
Timing the Market
Any trader knows that being right a little too early or a little too late can be as detrimental as simply being wrong. Timing is crucial in the financial markets, and nothing provides better timing than price itself. The pivotal points mentioned above occur in individual stocks and market indexes, as well. Let price confirm the trade before entering large positions.
Jesse Livermore believed no matter how much we "feel" that we know what is happening, we need to wait for the market to confirm our thesis. And only when it does do we make our trades - and we must do so promptly. (From picking the right type of stock to setting stop-losses, learn how to trade wisely in Day Trading Strategies For Beginners.)
Trading Rules
The trading rules that follow are simple, and have been included in many trading plans by many traders since they were created nearly a century ago. They are still valid today, and were created under Jesse's truism: "There is nothing new in Wall Street. There can't be, because speculation is as old as the hills. Whatever happens in the stock market today has happened before and will happen again."
Trade with the trend. Buy in a bull market, short in a bear market.
Don't trade when there aren't clear opportunities.
Trade using the pivotal points. (Learn how to spot the pivot point from which a new movement will emerge; read Find A Trend With The Partial Retrace.)
Wait for the market to confirm opinion before entering. Patience leads to "the big money."
Let profits run. Close trades that show a loss (good trades generally show profit right away).
Trade with a stop, and know it before you enter.
Exit trades where the prospect of further profits is remote (trend is over or waning).
Trade the leading stocks in each sector; trade the strongest stocks in a bull market, or the weakest stocks in a bear market.
Don't average down a losing position.
Don't meet a margin call; close the position instead.
Don't follow too many stocks.
Summing Up Jesse Livermore's Strategy
Jesse was highly successful, but also lost his fortune several times. He was always the first to admit when he made a mistake, and when he lost money it came down to two potential culprits:
1. The rules for trading were not fully formulated (not the case for most of his losses).
2. The rules were not followed.
For today's trader, these are still likely the culprits that keep profits at bay. To be profitable, we must actually create a profitable trading system, and then we must adhere to it in actual trading.
Jesse outlined a simple trading system for us: wait for pivotal points before entering a trade. When the points come into play, trade them using a buffer, trading in the direction of the overall market. Let the price dictate our actions and stay with profitable trades, until there is good reason to exit the trade. Losses should be small and trading should be avoided when there are no clear opportunities. When there are trading opportunities, trade stocks that are most likely to move the most. (For more books, check out Ten Books Every Investor Should Read.)
Posted by stockraider > 2015-02-08 12:37 | Report Abuse
Read n re-read more than 10 times n still re-reading...
The more times u read, the cleverer u r n richer u will be...
Jesse Livermore was a loner, a mere office boy with little formal EDUcation. He was highly stressed out in the stock mkt since a young boy of 15 years old. This is a big part of stock mkt occupational hazard. It was his BRAIN n body that failed him n certainly not his stock operating methodology that the entire investing world continues to learn from...
He once said it is unfair to play stock due to insider mgmt's better info abt the co. So he decided to go 100% into commodity futures, cotton I guess. He was the mover n almost corner the cotton mkt. At that final critical moment, his BRAIN went haywire ! This is like an expert pilot who flys the plane to the highest n all of the sudden losses his eye sight n sense. His Future contract being highly leveraged had no cut loss mechanism. By the time he was 'awaken' he went bankrupt.
Livermore is an expert n very good in making fast money in stocks. Barely passing his Form 'thee' = PMR < LCE, Certainly he wasn't good enough in the big ocean such as the commodity mkt. At some point in the cotton play, every country n the whole world was against him, so he crumpled.
Commodity n currency mkts r truly fit for the world highly 'educated' n brightest minds who have deep knowledge, knowhow n wisdom to act Right always. G Soros's the perfect talent who excels in this space. A few other hedge funders of the same tribe r equally good.
Dear friends, we do pity him, Right ! Your Warren B. also learns from Livermore on fear n greed, except that he lectured the financial fraternity with his popular longer well defined sentence. A known fact that no one can be a prestigious hedge funder today without learning from Livermore. Like all the famous hedgees on Wall Street, we can all learn the original stock mkt 'kungfu' from Livermore n make the hedgees ran for their money. Learn it RIGHT, it's investing life changing !
Food for thought. Think about it. Now we have the potential to be as good as or even better than the hedgees !
WHY ? Livermore with less than Form 'thee' qualification can make so much money in stocks, u with all the uni degrees must do much better. Agreed ? Excited ?
By n large, People tend to reject the best (No. 1 to 10) in the world. They choose to learn from No. 1000s or more or no position ranking at all...
Choosing who to learn from, also can go wrong already. How to be Right in the stock mkt ?
It's a free world, U decide...
RAIDER SAY MOST IMPORTANT U MUST LEARN FROM THE FATAL MISTAKE OF JESSE LIVERMORE & NOT HIS DARING BULL & BEAR TRADE LOH.....!!
IF U TAKE OUT THE AGGRESSIVE BULL & BEAR TRADE OF JESSE LIVERMORE.....U WILL HAVE A SUCCESSFUL TRADING SYSTEM !!
Posted by stockraider > 2015-02-08 12:37 | Report Abuse
Jesse Livermore believed no matter how much we "feel" that we know what is happening, we need to wait for the market to confirm our thesis. And only when it does do we make our trades - and we must do so promptly. (From picking the right type of stock to setting stop-losses, learn how to trade wisely in Day Trading Strategies For Beginners.)
Trading Rules
The trading rules that follow are simple, and have been included in many trading plans by many traders since they were created nearly a century ago. They are still valid today, and were created under Jesse's truism: "There is nothing new in Wall Street. There can't be, because speculation is as old as the hills. Whatever happens in the stock market today has happened before and will happen again."
Trade with the trend. Buy in a bull market, short in a bear market.
Don't trade when there aren't clear opportunities. U NEED CONFIRMATION IN ORDER TO TRADE
Trade using the pivotal points. (Learn how to spot the pivot point from which a new movement will emerge; read Find A Trend With The Partial Retrace.)
Wait for the market to confirm opinion before entering. Patience leads to "the big money."
Let profits run. Close trades that show a loss (good trades generally show profit right away). U SIT ON THE STOCK WHEN THERE IS MOMENTUM ON WAY UP BUT LARI KUAT KUAT IF PRICE IS COMING DOWN....!!
Trade with a stop, and know it before you enter. YES THIS IS YOUR INSURANCE PROTECTION. TO PROTECT YOUR MARGIN U CAN ALWAYS REVISE YOUR STOPPED.
Exit trades where the prospect of further profits is remote (trend is over or waning).
Trade the leading stocks in each sector; trade the strongest stocks in a bull market, or the weakest stocks in a bear market. CORRECT CHOSE THE MARKET LEADER IN BULL N CHOSE THE FALLING ANGEL IN BEAR!!
Don't average down a losing position.
Don't meet a margin call; close the position instead. YES VERY IMPORTANT...ALWAYS SELL WHEN THERE IS A MARGIN CALL!!
Don't follow too many stocks. FOR TRADERS RAIDER THINK MAXIMUM MANAGE 6 STOCKS LOH....!!
Summing Up Jesse Livermore's Strategy
Jesse was highly successful, but also lost his fortune several times. He was always the first to admit when he made a mistake, and when he lost money it came down to two potential culprits:
1. The rules for trading were not fully formulated (not the case for most of his losses).
2. The rules were not followed. THATS WHY RAIDER SAYS U MUST DISCIPLINE MAH....FOLLOW RULES LOH...!!
For today's trader, these are still likely the culprits that keep profits at bay. To be profitable, we must actually create a profitable trading system, and then we must adhere to it in actual trading.
Jesse outlined a simple trading system for us: wait for pivotal points before entering a trade. When the points come into play, trade them using a buffer, trading in the direction of the overall market. Let the price dictate our actions and stay with profitable trades, until there is good reason to exit the trade. Losses should be small and trading should be avoided when there are no clear opportunities. When there are trading opportunities, trade stocks that are most likely to move the most.
RAIDER IS ACTUALLY INVESTOR BUT RAIDER DO UNDERSTAND TRADING SYSTEM....ESPECIALLY THE TRADING SYSTEM FORMULATED BY JESSE LIVERMORE LOH.....!!
Posted by stockraider > 2015-02-08 12:40 | Report Abuse
Why should investmet be long term? Why should you hold a stock for 5 - 10 years?
Why? Why must it be that way?
Like you said, there are forever new tech stocks to replace the old one. Take xiaomi for example.
Why must I hold xiaomi for 5 - 10 years? Why do i care if it is durable?
Even marriage is not durable today. Till the end of time............. kakakakaka, you think snow white story meh.
I buy xiaomi and hold it until its revenue and profit stop growing then jump ship cannot?
There are tens of thousands of stocks in the whole world, I love Xiaomi today, I love Dami tomorrow.
Why should we set 5 - 10 years horizon and trapped ourself in a cage?
Raider the comment;
HOW TO HAVE A SUCCESSFUL INVESTMENT PRINCIPLE ?
1. BE CONTRAIAN....ALWAYS TRY TO GO AGAINST THE CROWD....DO NOT BE A FOLLOWER.
2. ANYTHING THAT REQUIRE EFFORT & COMPUTATION....U NORMALLY HAVE AN ADVANTAGE LOH...!!
3. WAIT FOR FAT PITCH.....U WHACK BIG WHEN THERE IS A BIG OPPORTUNITY MAH....!!
4. IF U ALLOW SOME TIME FOR GESTATION....THAT MEAN U HOLD LONGER....U GOT AN ANVANTAGE LOH...!!
5. WHEN THERE IS FEAR, UNCERTAINTY, CRISIS THE INVESTMENT U MAKE CAREFULLY WILL HAVE GOOD CHANCE OF SUCCEED,
6. IF THERE IS A BLOOD IN THE STREET, THE STOCK ALREADY DONATED ALOT OF BLOOD(BUT STILL CAN SUSTAINED), THE STOCK U INVEST GOT GOOD CHANCE OF SUCCEED LOH....!!
7. IF THE STOCK IS GROWING GAINING MARKET SHARE & THE PRICE HAS NOT GONE UP....U HAVE A COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE LOH.....!!
THESE HOW A NAPSHOT PORTFOLIO IS FORMULATED MAH....!!
As above investment principle above, If u hold a little bit longer, generally u have an unfair advantage bcos most of klse players is short term mah....as the players do not have patient to wait so long loh......!!
Having say that....it does not mean u cannot sell earlier.....for example if the business deteriorate or it has reached its full potential or it is overvalue u can always sell loh...!!
Posted by stockraider > 2015-02-08 12:43 | Report Abuse
Invested Capital, Time and the Rate of Return play important role in wealth compounding.
We should work & save for the capital, identify good companies, buy them cheap, and be patient.
The Stock Market is designed to transfer money from the Active to the Patient. - Warren Buffett
Investing should be more like watching paint dry or watching grass grow. - Paul Samuelson
No matter how great the talent or efforts, some things just take time. You can't produce a baby in one month by getting nine women pregnant. - Warren Buffett
Portfolio Policy for the Enterprising Investor (Benjamin Graham)
The activities characteristics of the enterprising investor may be classified under four heads:
1. Buying in low market and selling in high markets. The THEORY OF MR MARKET V MR VALUE
2. Buying carefully chosen "growth stocks". THE LAW COMPOUND IN INVESTMENT.
3. Buying bargain issues of various types. BUY WHEN THERE ARE HUGE MARGIN OF SAFETY OR BLOOD IN THE STREET.
4. Buying into "special situations". BUY WITH A VIEW OF ARBITRAGE LIKE THE CASE OF TAKEOVER
Benjamin Graham
The Intelligent Investor
Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre. - Warren Buffett
Posted by stockraider > 2015-02-08 12:43 | Report Abuse
Have you ever wondered why some people are so wealthy, even though they're not any smarter or harder working than most other people are?
Seems unfair, right?
How did they get there? Do they have better connections? Did their parents give them money? Did they take out a huge loan and gamble on starting a business? Is it from illegal or shady activity?
While these situations may be true for some wealthy people, for the most part, getting wealthy is pretty simple. It comes from having the right "strategy."
What is this secret strategy, you ask?
Diversified Investing + Small Deposits of Money + Time = Wealth
RAIDER COMMENT: BESIDE THE ABOVE RAIDER JUST WANT TO ADMIT THAT SOME PEOPLE ARE ^ LUCKY LOH....BUT WHAT TO DO ? THIS IS GOD'S WILL MAH.......!!
SO FOR ASPIRING INVESTOR WHO WANTS TO BE RICH HE NEEDS TO MANAGE THE CONTROLLABLE & DO IT THE OLD FASHION WAY LOH...!!
TO GET RICH THE OLD FASHION WAY U NEED TO DO THE THINGS BELOW LOH.....!!
1) ACCUMULATE SAVINGS ALWAYS SPEND LESS THAN U EARNED.
2) PUT YOUR SAVINGS INTO MONEY ENHANCING ASSETS LIKE LAND, PROPERTY, SHARES & BUSINESS.
3) MAKE SURE YOUR MONIES EARNED ABOVE AVERAGE RETURN LOH....!!
4) COMPOUND YOUR INVESTMENT & HOLD LONG TERM
5) REMOVE OR CUT DOWN ON SPENDING ON UNNECESSARY ITEMS OR BUYING INTO ASSETS THAT DESTROYED VALUE LIKE A NEW CARS, A NEW HAND PHONE , DESIGNER CLOTHINGS OR FREQUENT OVERSEA LUXURY TOURS MAH.....!!
Posted by stockraider > 2015-02-08 12:44 | Report Abuse
If you have a personal preference to sell after a stock has increased by a certain multiple - say three, for instance - you may never fully ride out a winner. No one in the history of investing with a "sell-after-I-have-tripled-my-money" mentality has ever succeeded.. Don't underestimate a stock that is performing well by sticking to some rigid personal rule - if you don't have a good understanding of the potential of your investments, your personal rules may end up being arbitrary and too limiting.
While riding a winner is important, you also should sell the losers. There is no guarantee that an online stock will bounce back after a long period of decline. While it is important not to underestimate good stocks, it is equally important to be realistic about investments that are performing badly. Recognizing your losers is hard because it's also an acknowledgment of your mistake. But it's important to be honest when you realize that a stock is not performing as well as you expected it to. Don't be afraid to swallow your pride and move on before your losses become even greater.
In both cases, the point is to judge companies on their merits according to your research. In each situation, you still have to decide whether a price justifies future potential. Just remember not to let your fears limit your returns or inflate your losses.
YES RIDE THE WINNER & SELL THE LOSER IS A VERY IMPORTANT RISK MANAGEMENT TOOLS FOR INVESTOR LOH...!!
SO WHEN TO DO YOU CUT LEH ? RECOMMENDED IS 10% BELOW YOUR PURCHASE PRICE LOH OR 10% BELOW YOUR STOPPED LOSS PRICE IF U HAD RAISED THE STOP TARGET LOH....!!
SHOULD FOLLOW RELIGOUSLY TO THE ABOVE RECOMMENDATION LOH....!!
FOR EXAMPLE PET DAG WAS SAY RM 30.00 AND U HAVE RAISED YOUR STOPPED TO RM 27.00 IE) 10% ALLOWANCE !!
U WOULD HAVE CUT THIS STOCK & PROTECT YOUR MARGIN IF U HAVE ADHERE TO YOUR CUT POSITION RELIGOUSLY MAH....!!
Posted by stockraider > 2015-02-08 12:46 | Report Abuse
Why Warren Buffet does not Invest in Companies he does NOT Understand
COMPLEX COMPANIES
Take however, a company like Unilever NV. This is a corporation that has been around a long time, has a worldwide reputation and market, and is successful. But how easy is it to understand the way it operates?
According to Value Line, it has two parent holding companies, one in Great Britain, and one in The Netherlands. It operates as one company but each of the two holding companies owns shares in operating subsidiaries. The director component of both holding companies is the same and there are agreements that equalise dividends and set trading ratios for their respective shares. The business may be good but this complex structure is just too difficult for the average person to understand.
THIS IS CORRECT LOH....U DON UNDERSTAND....MEANS DON KNOW HOW TO VALUE....U NO BUY MAH!!
WHY WARREN BUFFETT DOES NOT INVEST IN MICROSOFT
As Warren Buffett has said, he knows and admires Bill Gates and the Microsoft Corporation but has never invested in it because he does not understand the way that the company works.
THIS IS NOT TRUE LOH....W BUFFET WORDS DOES NOT FIT HIS ACTION MAH....!!
HE BOUGHT INTO IBM....WHICH IS ALSO....AN IT COMPANY SIMILIAR TO MICROSOFT....!!
THE MAIN REASON IS W BUFFET "DON WANT AN ISSUE OF CONFLICT OF INTEREST PERCEIVED BY MKT IF HE BUY INTO MICROSOFT LOH"
Chapter 20 - “Margin of Safety” as the Central Concept of Investment
A single quote by Graham on page 516 struck me:
Observation over many years has taught us that the chief losses to investors come from the purchase of low-quality securities at times of favorable business conditions. PLEASE UNDERSTAND THIS, LOW QUALITY MEANS HIGH DEBT, POOR CORPORATE GOVERNANCE & SUSTAINED BAD ECONOMICS OF BUSINESS...!!
Basically, Graham is saying that most stock investors lose money because they invest in companies that seem good at a particular point in time, but are lacking the fundamentals of a long-lasting stable company.
PLEASE UNDERSTAND THIS LOH...."GOOD AT THE TIME" APPLY TO GOOD COMPANIES LIKE PET DAG AT RM 30.00 WHEN OIL PRICE IS GOING UP LOH.....!!"
This seems obvious on the surface, but it’s actually a great argument for thinking more carefully about your individual stock investments. If most of your losses come from buying companies that seem healthy but really aren’t, isn’t that a profound argument for carefully studying any company you might invest in?
AGAIN IT APPLY TO UNAWARE BUYERS....WHO THOUGHT THEY BUY INTO QUALITY ?? AT OVERVALUE PRICES...LOH!!
THIS WHAT HAPPEN TO GAB, PET DAG AND AEONCR AT OVERVALUE PRICES IN 2014 MAH....!!
THOSE WHO CHASE AT HIGH PRICE THOSE PERCEIVE BLUECHIPS WOULD END UP LOSING OUT MAH....!!
Comment: Quality First??
RAIDER SAY VALUE OR MARGIN OF SAFETY 1ST LOH....!!.
Posted by stockraider > 2015-02-08 12:47 | Report Abuse
DERIVING INTRINSIC VALUE....!!
This time, the master has turned to Aesop for help and likens the process of performing valuations to his famous saying - 'a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush'.
Without getting too much into details, suffice to say that the master reaffirms his faith in the discounted cash flow approach to valuations and believes it to be the single most important tool in valuing assets of any kind, right from stocks to as exotic assets as royalties and lottery tickets.
Let us read the master's own words on his thoughts -
How certain are you that there are indeed birds in the bush?
When will they emerge and how many will there be?
What is the risk-free interest rate (which we consider to be the yield on long-term US bonds)?
If you can answer these three questions, you will know the maximum value of the bush and the maximum number of the birds you now possess that should be offered for it.
And, of course, don't literally think birds. Think dollars."
It applies to outlays for farms, oil royalties, bonds, stocks, lottery tickets, and manufacturing plants
Just insert the correct numbers, and you can rank the attractiveness of all possible uses of capital throughout the universe."
Comment:
1. What cash flows can you get out of the company?
2. When will these cash flows appear?
3. What is the risk free interest rate?
Knowing the answers to these 3 questions, use the DCF formula to derive the value of the asset. THIS IS ONE OF THE WAY TO GET THE INTRINSIC VALUE LOH....!!
AFTER U GET THE INTRINSIC VALUE U NEED TO COMPARE WITH SHARE PRICE LOH....!!
(INTRINSIC VALUE MINUS SHARE PRICE) = MARGIN OF SAFETY LOH...!!
INVESTOR CAN FURTHER IMPROVE THE MARGIN OF SAFETY BY BUYING CHEAP CHEAP MAH....!!
PLEASE NOTE THERE ARE MANY FORMULA TO DERIVE INTRINSIC VALUE SUCH AS;
1) DCF
2) REPLACEMENT VALUE
3) LIQUIDATION VALUE
4) PE
5) DIVIDEND YIELD
THE COMPUTATION USING THE DIFFERENT BASES, WILL GIVE U A DIFFERENT OUTCOME OF INTRINSIC VALUE LOH......!!
Posted by stockraider > 2015-02-08 12:48 | Report Abuse
Quote from: iiinvestsmart on January 29, 2013, 03:58:57 PM
Definition of 'Manipulation'
The act of artificially inflating or deflating the price of a security. In most cases, manipulation is illegal. It is much easier to manipulate the share price of smaller companies, such as penny stocks, because they are not as closely watched by analysts as the medium- and large-sized firms.
Also known as "price manipulation."
Investopedia explains 'Manipulation'
One way people can deflate the price of a security is by placing hundreds of small orders at a significantly lower price than the one at which it has been trading. This gives investors the impression that there is something wrong with the company, so they sell, pushing the prices even lower. Another example of manipulation would be to place simultaneous buy and sell orders through different brokers that cancel each other out but give the perception, because of the higher volume, that there is increased interest in the security.
Read more: http://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/manipulation.asp#ixzz2JLiNGbjE
Quote from: iiinvestsmart on Today at 07:12:28 AM
Imagine a room of 100 people.
1 person X owns 80 shares
Another 20 shares are own by 20 others.
79 people own no shares.
X decides to redistribute his shares. He engages Y. He gave Y 40 shares, who also distributed these 40 shares to 9 others (4 shares each). He was also given a sum of cash and some terms. Now these 10 new chaps are also in the same room. (Total number of people = 110). We still have 20 others in the room with 1 share each and 79 others with no shares; these 99 people are not in this group of manipulators.
The game then begins.
Y bought in the open at higher and higher prices. His other 9 friends also start to buy and sell at these prices.
This counter was inactive and now is very active indeed. 40% of outstanding shares are exchanged almost daily and the prices keep going up.
The 99 people who are not in the manipulator's group also became excited. A few of them bought early in the game. They made money. They are elated. They tell some of their friends. More of them bought these shares. They too were elated. The share price continues to rise and they bought more. As more people starts to play, the shares are distributed when the share price is on the way up, not on the way down.
Soon, the manipulators have distributed a portion of their shares at high prices to those who choose to play the game. This can go on for a few rounds.
Then as certain as day turns to night and night turns to day, the fun stops. The manipulator having achieved their objectives, make a disappearance. Suddenly, the buyers are not there to take up the shares which those in the 99 who played are holding. The share price spirals downward in a rapid pace. The game is over.
The manipulator has already created the money out of thin air when the share prices were trading at a higher price. The * see their money disappeared into thin air when the share prices tank.
Of course, this is nothing new.
Posted by stockraider > 2015-02-08 12:48 | Report Abuse
RAIDER COMMENT;
MOST PEOPLE KNOW THIS TYPE OF THING IS A CON GAME.....WHY THEY KEEP DOING IT ?
BCOS OF GAMBLING MENTALITY 75% OF THE PLAYERS ARE HERE TO TRADE, GAMBLE AND HAVE FUND MAH, THEREFORE THEY ARE EXCITED WITH FAST MONIES LOH...!!
THIS GIVE OPPORTUNITY FOR SHARK TO PREY UPON LOH....!!
WHAT PEOPLE SHOULD DO ?
AVOID SHAREMARKET ALTOGETHER ?
NO THEY SHOULD NOT LOH.....!!
MARKET IS A LUCRATIVE OPPORTUNITY TO MAKE MONIES & IF U KNOW HOW & MANAGE IT WELL LOH....!!
SO HOW ?
BE KNOWLEDGEABLE KNOW OF BUSINESS, FINANCIAL, ECONOMICS AND MOST IMPORTANT KNOW ABOUT VALUATION & CONCEPT OF MARGIN OF SAFETY.
ALSO THE ISSUE OF PSYCHOLOGY & BEHAVIOR OF CROWD LOH....!!
MANAGE WELL
REFUSE TO CHASE OR VALUE STOCKS.
IF WANT TO JOIN THE GAME OF MANIPULATION BE WARY ...DO YOUR VALUATION, SET CUT POSITION, STUDY MOMENTUM AND MARKET BEHAVIOR.....LARI KUAT KUAT, WHEN IT SEEMS, NOT RIGHT LOH....!!
Posted by stockraider > 2015-02-08 12:49 | Report Abuse
Cold Eye’s 5 yardsticks for investment
Author: Intelligent Investor | Publish date: Sat, 31 Jan 21:39
Cold Eye listed 5 important criteria on his talk on 16-March-2013.
Return on Equity (ROE)
Cash Flow from Operations (OCF) and Free Cash Flow (FCF)
Price-Earning Ratio (P/E)
Dividend Yield (DY)
Net Tangible Asset (NTA) per share
Return on Equity (ROE)
Investor want to have a reasonable return from the capital for the equity put in.
The return rate depend on the business risk.
You would want to have a risk that higher than a risk free rate. Says, bank FD provide interest rate of 4%, you will target for a min return say 10%-15% (6% - 11% above FD rate) for the risk you take.
[Note]: There is some issues and pitfall on ROE, do perform DuPont analysis on the ROE, or alternately I prefer to use ROIC.
Cash Flow
Business owner would expect debtors pay you promptly and you don;t have to stock up a lot of inventories which tied up your capital.
Else, you have to put in more capital each year even you make one.
Do expect the hard cash received must be about the earnings each year.
For each year, the business need capex to keep it going (so the owner can ear more in future) - e.g. buy more/relenish equipment, buy/open more shops.
It would be good if the capex can be met with the cash I receveid from operations and owner no need to come up with more money.
It will be fantastic if there is still leftover money to draw out (diviend), or the company can have extra money to invest in other lucrative business.
Check
Average OCF same as reported earnigns over the years?
Is FCF in genral positive over the years?
Is the average FCF >= 5% of Revenue?
[Note]: You may want to read more on Cash Flow Statement Analaysis.
Price-Earning Ratio (P/E)
A business might not be a right investment if price is nor right. If you buy a business with good ROE (say 30%) on P/E of 33 will only give you a earnings yield of only 3%.
If the yield is less than FD, you may want to put the money to bank to earn risk free return.
The prowess in investing is not knowing how to buying great companies at any price, but good companies at a cheap price.
We should look for company < 10 or < 15 (good company with growth prospect)
[Note]: P/E will ignore the debt an cash on the balance sheet. EV and EBIT is a good alternative if an investor want to take care on this item.
Dividend Yield (DY)
How nice if my bussiness can have extra cash (FCF) after CAPEX investment and the left over money send back to owner as Dividend. (You may want to read more on Cash Flow Statement Analaysis.)
This way, the owner can have additional money to spend while the business is still growing and the dividend is likely ti increase in the future.
DY = Dividend per Share for a Year / Stock Price
It could be a good investment if DY > FD rate.
Net Tangible Asset (NTA) per share
Investor can recoup the initial investment if the NTA worth more than what he put in.
If the NTA per share > stock price, you may be in for a bargain.
More valuable (e.g. hard cash, property, land) asset is better.
Receiveables - debtors might not want to pay me.
Inventories - it may be outdated.
Some business (e.g. service industry) where the important assets is not tangible e.g. its technology, brand name, people......
[Note]: This is align with Benjamin Graham Net Net & Negative Enterprise Value.
More cold eye sharings can be found on below links:-
THE ABOVE ASPECT IS JUST FOR VALUING STOCK LOH.....!!
U JUST NEED TO FOLLOW IT RELIGOUSLY, AND LEAVE IT TO GOD'S HAND AFTER U DONE EVERYTHING RIGHT MAH....!!
U NEED TO WAIT PATIENTLY FOR MARKET TO REACT POSITIVELY, INORDER FOR U TO MAKE A GOOD PROFIT MAH....!!
Posted by stockraider > 2015-02-08 12:53 | Report Abuse
Trueloh....if u adopt B graham investment tech....u compare Mr Market price v Your Value.....!!
Only when MR market....is too far from valuation....U take advantage of him loh...!
wo ways to profit from the market swings: Timing or Pricing
Since common stocks, even of investment grade, are subject to recurrent and wide fluctuations in their prices, the intelligent investor should be interested in the possibilities of profiting from these pendulum swings. There are two possible ways by which he may try to do this:
- the way of timing and
- the way of pricing.
By timing we mean the endeavour to anticipate the action of the stock market—
- to buy or hold when the future course is deemed to be upward,
- to sell or refrain from buying when the course is downward.
By pricing we mean the endeavour
- to buy stocks when they are quoted below their fair value and
- to sell them when they rise above such value.
A less ambitious form of pricing is the simple effort
- to make sure that when you buy you do not pay too much for your stocks. This may suffice for the defensive investor, whose emphasis is on long-pull holding; but as such it represents an essential minimum of attention to market levels.
We are convinced that the intelligent investor can derive satisfactory results from pricing of either type.
We are equally sure that if he places his emphasis on timing, in the sense of forecasting, he will end up as a speculator and with a speculator’s financial results. YES NEVER BASED ON FORECASTING OF PRICE BUT ON VALUATION OF STOCK LOH.....!!
BY DETERMINING THE CORRECT VALUATION V MARKET PRICE ....U WILL HAVE UNFAIR ADVANTAGE IF U INVESTMENT PERIOD IS OF LONGER HORIZON..!
Posted by stockraider > 2015-02-08 13:01 | Report Abuse
18 points guide to Successfully compounding your money in Stocks
1.Be a good stock picker.
2.Think as a business owner.
3.Always look at value rather than the price. Do the homework.
4.Buy and hold is alright for selected stocks.
5.Compounding is your friend, get this to work its magic.
6.Mr. Market is there to be taken advantage of. Do not be the * instead. BFS;STS.
7.Always buy a lot when the price is low.
8.Never buy when the stock is overpriced.
9.It is alright to buy when the selected stock is at a fair price.
10.Phasing in or dollar cost averaging is safe for such stocks during a downtrend, unless the price is still obviously too high.
11.Do not time the market for such or any stocks.
12.By keeping to the above strategy, the returns will be delivered through the growth of the company's business.
13.So, when do you sell the stock? Almost never, as long as the fundamentals remain sound and the future prospects intact.
14.The downside risk is protected through only buying when the price is low or fairly priced.
15.Tactical dynamic asset allocation or rebalancing based on valuation can be employed but this sounds easier than is practical, except in extreme market situations.
16.Sell urgently when the company business fundamental has deteriorated irreversibly.
17.You may also wish to sell should the growth of the company has obviously slowed and you can reinvest into another company with greater growth potential of similar quality. However, unlike point 16, you can do so leisurely.
18.In conclusion, a critical key to successful investing is in your stock picking ability.
Posted by stockraider > 2015-02-08 13:03 | Report Abuse
Quote from: iiinvestsmart on January 18, 2015, 07:51:29 AM
### Attractive Buying Opportunities arise through a Variety of Causes
Attractive buying opportunities for the enterprising investor arise through a variety of causes.
The standard or recurrent reasons are
(a) a low level of the general market and
(b) the carrying to an extreme of popular disfavor toward individual issues.
Sometimes, but much more rarely, we have the failure of the market to respond to an important improvement in the company's affairs and in the value of its stock.
Frequently, we find a discrepancy between price and value which arises from the public's failure to realise the true situation of a company - this in turn being due to some complicated aspects of accounting or corporate relationships.
It is the function of competent security analysis to unravel such complexities and to bring the true facts and values to light.
Quote from: iiinvestsmart on January 18, 2015, 08:01:14 AM
Summary:
Attractive buying opportunities (discrepancy between price and value) due to various causes:
1. low level of the general market
(examples: 1997-2000, 2005, 2008 to 2013)
2. extreme of popular disfavour towards individual stocks
(examples: Maybank when it was acquiring BII and Pakistan bank, recently Tesco)
3. failure of market to respond to improvement in the company
(examples: when HaiO turned around few years ago from loss to profitability, Latexx turnaround, GCB showing improving revenues and profits in 2009)
4. failure to realise hidden value in the company due to some complicated aspects of accounting or corporate relationships
(examples: Parkson in 2005, APM in 2005)
Quote from: iiinvestsmart on Yesterday at 01:01:43 PM
"Be Greedy When Others Are Fearful"
Remember that famous Warren Buffet's quote?
"We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful."
Right now fear has seized the stock market and to many investors it seems like it is the end of the world now. However, it is not. The economy and the market will recover even if it takes longer than expected. Thus, what you can do in times of crisis like the current one is take advantage of the attractive prices and fearful environment.
Of course, this does not mean that you should invest in companies with bad outlook.
Before you make a major, long-term investment, do your homework and find companies with strong and experienced management teams, good track records of profitability and growth, and innovative R&D.
Yes, the QMV approach - Quality and Management (first), and
RAIDER COMMENT; THE ABOVE ARTICLE POSTED BY 3I LOOK LIKE VERY EASY....!!
BUT IF U TAKE A WALK IN "PASAR PUDU" AND TALK TO AUNTIES & UNCLES....U WILL FIND OUT HOW SO MANY LOSE MONIES DOING THE ABOVE LOH ESPECIALLY THE 1ST ARTICLE ON CONTRAIAN INVESTMENT......!!
IT JUST THAT.....THE SUCCESSFUL ONE WILL BROACAST TO LET THE WHOLE WORLD KNOWS....!!
BUT THE FAILURE, WILL HIDE IN THE CORNER AND CRY SILENTLY MAH.....!!
FOR EVERY 2 SUCCESS.....U NORMALLY CAN FIND 10 FAILURES LOH.....!!
Posted by stockraider > 2015-02-08 13:06 | Report Abuse
Strategy during crisis investment: Revisiting the recent 2008 bear market
Although we may not know where the bear bottom is, buying in a down market may still lead to losing money. This is definitely true. As long as the purchase is not at market bottom, it may still result in losses for the time being. This is likely to be a short-term loss but compensated by a probable long-term gain. Even if we cannot time the market perfectly, we are definitely better off to “buy low and sell high” then to “buy high and sell low”.
U PICK MUST HAVE VALUE MUCH MORE THAN THE SHARE PRICE TO GIVE U BIG MARGIN OF SAFETY.
Prices fell but value intact. NOT ALL VALUE INTACT....ESPECIALLY WHEN SHARE PRICE DRASTICALLY...SOMETIME THERE IS ALSO RISK OF IMPAIRMENT OR THE MARKET AFFECTING THE PROSPECT & SENTIMENT OF THE BUSINESS
Presently stock prices have fallen sharply.
•Banks are trading at 1x book value,
•property stocks sold at 50% discount from net asset value,
•utility stocks trading at single-digit price-earnings ratio providing an earnings yield of more than 10% net of tax and
•there are many good stocks trading at dividend yield of 2x bank interest rates.
ON THE WHOLE STILL WORTHWHILE TO BUY.....WHEN STOCK HAS FALLEN DRASTICALLY
Warren Buffett, the second richest man in the world who makes his fortune from stock investment, is busy buying undervalued companies. He sees the value and he also sees prices detaching away from the intrinsic values.He said: “I haven’t the faintest idea as to whether stocks will be higher or lower a month — or a year — from now. What is likely, however, is that the market will move higher, perhaps substantially so, well before either sentiment or the economy turn up.
IF U THINK LIKE WARREN BUFFET....U MUST BE PREPARE TO ACCEPT 3 TO 5 YRS OF INVESTMENT HOLDING. BUT RAIDER ATTEST IT IS WORTH IT LOH.....!!
Catching a falling knife
Some may argue that buying now is like catching a falling knife. If you are not careful, you may be hurt and suffer more losses from falling stock prices.There is no doubt that we may incur short-term losses as long as we do not buy at the bottom. On the other hand, who can determine where and when is the bottom. As long as there are still unknown events or hidden problems, an apparent bottom now may not be the eventual bottom.Since we do not have all the information in the market, it is almost impossible to guess where the bottom will be.
IN SHORT TERM U WORRIED ABOUT FALLING KNIFE BUT IN LONG TERM U NO WORRY....BCOS U HAVE DONE YOUR HOMEWORK.
In most cases, we only realise the bottom after it is over and by that time stock prices are running high with much improved market confidence. Market bottom could be there only for a short period. In most cases, market did not stay at the bottom waiting for investors. It will just move on.
Since market moves ahead of the economy by about six months, the market bottoms out when the economy is still gloomy, news are still negative, analysts are still calling underweights and most investors are staying at the sidelines.
THATS WHY RAIDER SAYS U MUST BE BIAS HOLDING STOCK....INSTEAD OF FEAR HOLDING STOCKS.
Handling something we know is definitely much easier than dealing with the unknown risks, something which hits from behind without warning.When we invest during a crisis we actually go in with our eyes open. We know it is definitely risky but we also know it could also be very profitable. If we can handle the risk, the risk-reward trade-off will be very rewarding.
THATS WHY YOUR SAFE GUARDS IN MARGIN OF SAFETY.....THE BIGGER THE BETTER.
Emphasise strategies
What we need is to buy near the bottom, not right at the bottom. Investors’ frequent question now is when to buy, that is where is the bottom? Perhaps it is more intelligent to ask how much to buy now since nobody will be able to guess where is the market bottom.
Staggered buying is preferred over bullet purchase which is taking the risk of timing the market bottom. In staggered buying, a pre-determined amount will be set aside for investment over time, say in 10 equal portions.
One common method of staggered investment is dollar cost averaging, an investment scheme made in equal portions periodically, either by a small amount monthly or larger amount quarterly. There are also several variations of staggered investment.
RAIDER ALWAYS ADVISE U STAGGERRED YOUR BUYING & SELLING.
Anyway, staggered purchase is a preferred method to avoid the anxiety of market timing and the mixed feeling of fear of further downside and worry of missing the market rebound. As long as the market is undervalued, the strategy of staggered investment ensures that investors are in and are benefiting from the undervalued market.
Posted by stockraider > 2015-02-08 13:06 | Report Abuse
Quote:
Let raider clarify........the issue of predicting market............!!
Yes predicting market...........in the future is very difficult.........!!
But to reacting market action can be done.........quite easily loh.........!!
For value investor..........they had always being advise to ignore the market.........bcos they may not had the expertise.........to read & feel it.
However for experience fundamental investor..........that had master........some form of market action pattern & trend.........they should be advise to go for it loh...!!
Those fundamental investor who used........some market analysis skill..........beside fundamental skill..........will be at least 20% to 30% better than if they do not use any loh..........!!
Raider had been using that...........it isTRUE LOH.........!!
Posted by stockraider > 2015-02-08 13:11 | Report Abuse
The best ways to lose money
Hold it: Remember Warren Buffett's first rule.
Often regarded as the world's most successful investor, Warren Buffett says the first rule of making money is never to lose money.
His second rule is never to forget rule number one. It's not as simple as avoiding loss-making investments – the very best investors can't manage that – but the first rule of making money is ensuring you don't blow gigantic holes in your retirement savings or jump aboard a perennially losing strategy.
So how do you avoid doing just that?
Questions like this are sometimes best answered by turning the proposition on its head. So, as a guide to what not to do, let's ask ourselves what's the best way to lose money?
Money can be lost in either a single bang or eroded over time. Let's think first about how to lose a big chunk of your savings.
A decade or so ago the best approach would have been the managed agricultural scheme. These deals – often characterised by investors paying exorbitant upfront fees to buy expensive land, on which they'd plant the wrong things based on inflated forecasts – were as surefire a way to lose money as it gets.
What's the modern-day agricultural scheme?
There's no equivalent but my choice for an alternative is attending a free get-rich-quick property investment seminar. That's not a prediction of doom and gloom. Property experts don't buy attractive, well-priced properties at these things. Seminars are where expensive, unattractive properties are sold to non-experts, often accompanied by poor "advice".
The Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) is slowly catching up with the shonks so perhaps it won't last, but for now property investment seminars remain the best bet for toasting your retirement nest egg.
Where else can an investor keen to vaporise their superannuation balance turn?
Eviser asset allocation expert, John Nunan nominates margin lending (and similar products) as the next best way to lose your money. (Attention Mr. Raider Smiley ) Preferably you'll borrow lots against a small number of shares (even better if the companies face similar risks). To demonstrate the potential of this money-losing strategy, consider a simple example: a "portfolio" of BHP and RIO shares purchased in April 2011. Let's say you contributed 40 per cent of the purchase price and borrowed the rest through a margin loan arrangement.
By August that year, if you couldn't meet the margin calls (depositing additional funds) you'd have been sold out by your lender for a loss of roughly half of your capital. By October, you'd have lost more than two-thirds.
Even a property seminar won't burn your savings that quickly.
But it's also true that things can work out spectacularly well with margin lending. If you'd bought the shares in August the following year you'd have made a big short-term gain.
This makes margin lending more of a "gamble" than a sure-fire money loser. If you don't want to risk making money, stick to the property investing seminars.
If you're happy to take a bit more time in your loss-making efforts, a useful rule of thumb is to invest in a product that includes the word "guaranteed".
An "income guarantee" is a tell-tale sign that a product won't repay your capital. If it has a "capital guarantee" instead, you won't make much income.
A final suggestion for losing money is to answer an advertisement from the wealth management arm of a financial institution or a larger dealer group.
Smiley
You won't do your dough quickly (although it's possible) but you can be confident they'll get you into expensive, poorly performing in-house products, onto a pricey platform or sign you up for an insurance policy that doesn't suit your needs.
The list is endless but I'll stop there and ask: have you noticed the theme? The consistent feature of all these loss-making strategies is that they're heavily marketed.
If you're not looking to lose money here's another rule: good investments aren't sold loudly, they're bought discretely.
RAIDER COMMENT : THE ABOVE ARTICLE IS TALKING RUBBISH LOH......!!
HOW U CANNOT LOSE MONIES ? SURELY THERE IS A CHANCE U MAY LOSE MONIES MAH.....!!
WHEN U BUY INTO SHARE....THAT MEANS THAT U HAVE EXPOSURE TO MARKET FLUCTUATION AS WELL AS TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF BUSINESS, CORPORATE GOVERNANCE & ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT MAH.....!!
A GOOD INVESTOR CAN REDUCE THE RISK BUT HE COULD NOT ELIMINATE IT COMPLETELY.
ALSO U CAN CAREFULLY SELECT THE SHARE WITH MARGIN OF SAFETY, DIVERSIFY YOUR PURCHASE THRU A PORTFOLIO AND GIVE A REASONABLE TIME FRAME FOR YOUR INVESTMENT TO PERFORM LOH.....!!
THIS IS WHAT W BUFFET MEAN.....NOT TO LOSE MONIES LOH.....!!
Posted by stockraider > 2015-02-08 13:12 | Report Abuse
ARE U A SPECULATOR OR AN INVESTOR ? INVESTOR HAS MORE RISK, yes or YES = Protect Your Downside.
Author: PureBULL . | Publish date: Sat, 17 Jan 01:02
ARE U A SPECULATOR OR AN INVESTOR ?
INVESTOR HAS MORE RISK , yes or YES?
This is an extract from William O'Neil :-
"" There are two often-misunderstood words that are used to describe the
kinds of people who participate in the stock market: speculator and investor.
When you think of the word speculator, you might think of someone who
takes big risks, gambling on the future success of a stock. Conversely, when
you think of the word investor, you might think of someone who approaches
the stock market in a sensible and rational manner. According to these conventional
definitions, you may think it’s smarter to be an investor.
Bernard Baruch, however, defined speculator as follows:
“The word speculator comes from the Latin ‘speculari,’ which means to spy and observe.
A speculator, therefore, is a person who observes and acts before [the future]
occurs.” This is precisely what you should be doing: watching the market
and individual stocks to determine what they’re doing now, and then acting
on that information.
Jesse Livermore, the greatest stock market legend, defined investor this way:
“Investors are the big gamblers. They make a bet, stay with it, and if it goes
wrong, they lose it all.”
After reading this far, you should already know this is
not the proper way to invest. There’s no such thing as a long-term investment
once a stock drops into the loss column and you’re down 8% below your cost.
These definitions are a bit different from those you’ll read in Webster’s
Dictionary, but they are far more accurate. Keep in mind that Baruch and
Livermore at many times made millions of dollars in the stock market. I’m
not sure about lexicographers. ""
In real life many started to speculate but ended up as reluctant investors. Worse still the
stocks held r not investment grade or its fundamental is fast decaying...
We put in so much hard work n homework n finally decided to buy. So after a buy is executed,
please take note that serious work begins because risk starts.
From 1st 4 hrs to 2 days, that stock must, must not disappoint in terms of price.
If it fails to move up, rush in n 'berlanja' to the buyer ! This is o/h of investing biz.
I like these Fine words, Protect the downside, upside will take care of itself.
Because in down trending stocks, 1st loss is always the best loss.
RAIDER DO NOT AGREE WITH THE AUTHOR'S CONCLUSION ON INVESTOR LOH.....!!
HE SAYS AN INVESTOR WILL BUY N HOLD THE SHARE FOREVER WITHOUT DOING ANYTHING LOH....!!
RAIDER SAYS THIS TYPE ARE "DUNGU INVESTOR" LOH.....WHO GIVE A BAD NAME TO "THE INVESTOR MAH"
AN INVESTOR, AFTER HE HAS CAREFULLY SELECTED THE STOCK HE INVESTED....HE MUST CAREFULLY & REGULARLY REVIEW HIS INVESTMENT TO GUARD AGAINST NEGATIVE PERMANENT CHANGE IN ECONOMICS OF THE STOCK OR BUSINESS, BAD CORPORATE GOVERNANCE ETC......LIKE WHAT W BUFFET HAD RECOMMENDED.
THE MORE ADVANCE INVESTOR.....WILL ALSO MATCH THE INTRINSIC VALUATION OF THE STOCK AGAINST MR MARKET PRICE SETTING LOH....!! LOOKING FOR OPPORTUNITY AGST MR MARKET....LIKE WHAT SIFU B GRAHAM RECOMMENDED LOH!!
THEN THERE IS AN ISSUE.....OF HOLDING OF STOCKS NOT MORE THAN 3 YRS LOH.....WHEN COME 3 YRS, NEED TO JUSTIFY WITH GOOD REASONS.....WHY WE STILL WANT TO HOLD THE STOCKS AS RECOMMENDED BY B GRAHAM.
THEN THIS WILLIAM ONIEL RECOMMEND....AFTER WE BOUGHT....IF THE SHARE FALL BY 10% BETTER CHOPPED OFF LOH...!!
THEREFORE U SEE INVESTOR....ARE NOT DUNGU THAT HOLD FOREVER.....THERE ARE SAFEGUARDS IN PLACE LOH...!!
Posted by stockraider > 2015-02-08 13:14 | Report Abuse
BE SENSITIVE TO ALL THINGS "RIGHT" TO WEALTH CREATION
G Soros said,
Only If u r Right, Buy all = hantam = 'sailang' big big.
RAIDER AGREE LOH......IF YOUR SELECTION U THINK RIGHT.....AND AFTER THRU CAREFUL & COMPREHENSIVE ANALYSIS U STILL RIGHT !!
U NEED TO BET BIG LOH....!
BUT "BIG" NOT TO MEAN IF IT TURNOUT WRONG.....U WILL BE BANKRUPT.....WHAT RAIDER MEAN IF TURNOUT WRONG...IT IS GOING TO BE PAINFUL FOR U LOH.....!!
U STILL CAN AFFORD TO * YOUR WOUND & MOVE ON....!!
Story Heard 1
In the nineties, Soros had a very young sidekick in Drunkenmiller.
This young turks is truly an expert in forex. He knew so much
about Pound then. So this young man shorted Pound n kept bragging about
his theory. Soros then asked him, what is your position in Pound short ?
The answer given by Drunkenmiller is pretty small.
Soros turned around n said to him, if u r ^ Right, why small ?
Next moment, together they went shorting Pound all the way to
bankrupting Bank Of England. As a matter of fact, bank Of England
didn't bankrupt, 1 other central bank, u know who almost did !
For quite a few years, bank Negara was a hero in forex trading. The
entire forex world was waiting every morning for the wonderful 'tips'
from Negara. That was the key word people looked for.
See, when people do wrong things, they get promoted even higher. U also
know why someone is so angry with '*****' Soros. Many people do not know how to choose the real difference between RIGHT or wrong stocks, Pass or fail, GOOD or bad people or ideas. Many times wrong n bad people get promoted n r fully recognized in high office. Has this become our incredible culture ?
IF U R FOLLOWING SOROS.....U R ACTUALLY FOLLOWING A SPECULATOR TECH LOH....!!
Story Heard 2
J Paulson graduated amongst the very top in his MBA Finance at Harvard Biz School. He knew so much about sub prime financing biz. In late 2006 he started shorting Sub Prime derivatives n loss. Running out of choice he made contact to G Soros around late 2007 to early 2008 n had an appointment.
Paulson gave a presentation n within 1 hour, the older gentleman bought his story.
Immediately both went shorting sub prime like 'crazy'. n the whole investing community followed suit leading to 2007-09 DOW financial crash.
Paulson became record holder making US$3.2 billion. 2nd record was $2.8 billion. No name was mentioned. Of course none other than that older man. So Humble he is.
So we need to aim RIGHT at RIGHT TIMING.
& be sensitive to all things RIGHT to score in the 'stock mkt exam' every cycle ...
THE LATEST 2014 RESULT PAULSON LOSES A FEW BILLIONS DUE TO HIS WRONG SPECULATIVE BETS LOH...!!
YES IF U FOLLOW SPECULATOR TYPE OF STRATEGY U WILL MAKE A LOT OF MONIES AND LOSE ALOT TOO MAH...!!
WHAT WE CAN LEARN HERE ? THE PRINCIPLE OF BETTING BIG & SUBSTANTIAL IF U HAD DONE A THRU CAREFUL AND COMPLETE ANALYSIS AND CONFIDENT OF UR PICKED......U SHOULD BET BIG LOH.....!!
Posted by stockraider > 2015-02-08 13:17 | Report Abuse
Concept of "Risk." Market price fluctuation is NOT risk.
It is conventional to speak of good bonds as less risky than good preferred stocks and of the latter as less risky than good common stocks.
From this is derived the popular prejudice against common stocks because they are not "safe."
The words "risk" and "safety" are applied to securities in two different senses, with a resultant confusion in thought.
A bond is clearly proved unsafe when it defaults its interest or principal payments.
Similarly, if a preferred stock or even a common stock is bought with the expectation that a given rate of dividend will be continued, then a reduction or passing of the dividend means that it is unsafe.
It is also true that an investment contains a risk if there is a fair possibility that the holder may have to sell at a time when the price is well below cost.
Nevertheless, the idea of risk is often extended to apply to a possible decline in the price of a security, even though the decline may be of a cyclical and temporary nature and even though the holder is unlikely to be forced to sell at such times.
These chances are present in all securities, other than United States Savings Bonds, and to a greater extent in the general run of common stocks than in senior issues generally.
But we believe that what is here involved is not a true risk in the useful sense of the term.
$$$$
The man who holds a mortgage on a building might have to take a loss if he were forced to sell it at an unfavourable time. That element is not taken into account in judging the safety or risk of ordinary real-estate mortgages, the only criterion being the certainty of punctual payments.
In the same way the risk attached to an ordinary commercial business is measured by the chance of its losing money, not by what would happen if the owner, were forced to sell.
We would emphasize our conviction that the bona fide investor does not lose money merely because the market price of his holdings declines; the fact that a decline may occur does not mean that he is running a true risk of loss.
$$$$$
If a group of well-selected common-stock investments shows a satisfactory over-all return, as measured through a fair number of years, then this group investment has proved to be "safe".
During that period its market value is bound to fluctuate, and as likely as not it will sell for a while under the buyer's cost.
If that fact makes the investment "risky" it would then have to be called both risky and safe at the same time.
This confusion may be avoided if we apply the concept of risk solely to a loss of value which either:
(a) is realized through actual sale or
(b) is ascertained to be caused by a significant deterioration in the company's position.
Many common stocks do involve risks of such deterioration.
But it is our thesis that a properly executed group investment in common stocks does not carry any substantial risk of this sort and that therefore it should not be termed "risk" merely because of the element of price fluctuation.
Benjamin Graham
The Intelligent Investor
RAIDER WILL SAY THIS LOH.............IT IS SAFE ONLY..........IF U DO NOT NEED THE MONIES.........URGENTLY.....AND CAN HOLD IT OVER A LONGER PERIOD MAH..........!!
THATS WHY...........ALWAYS OLANG KAYA............ALWAYS..........MAKE A LONG ALOT OF MONIES..........BCOS THEY CAN HOLD LONG MAH........!!
NOT SO KAYA CANNOT..........BCOS ..........THEY HAVE A LOT OF COMMITMENT MAH....LIKE CHILDREN EDUCATION....NEW CAR....ETC..!!
THEREFORE.........IN ORDER TO MAKE MONIES..........START ACTING LIKE..........KEDEKUT OLANG KAYA LOH....!!
Posted by stockraider > 2015-02-08 13:24 | Report Abuse
IS THERE REALLY A SANTA CLAUS RALLY FOR THE MAT SALLEH ?
IS THERE REALLY A CHOYSUN RALLY FOR THE ASIAN AND CHINESE PEOPLE ?
THE ANSWER IS YES....!
ESPECIALLY WHEN MARKET HAD ALOT OF PESSIMISM LOH....!
It might not be the most disappointing thing you've ever heard in regards to Santa Claus, but Jeff Hirsch of the Stock Trader's Almanac has some disappointing news for those still waiting for the eponymous rally to save the markets.
"Everybody likes to say any sort of year-end rally is the Santa Claus rally," says Hirsch. "The Santa Claus rally is the last five days of the year plus the first two days of the next."
Now that I feel like a dolt for laying out rally cookies and milk next to the money tree in my living room for the last two weeks Hirsch is free to explain what I'm supposed to do with this new information.
For one thing I can better focus my book. Hirsch says that his version of the rally is shorter in time but makes up for it with returns and powers of prognostication. On the return front, the average gain during those seven trading days has been 1.5 - 1.7% for the last half century.
THERE IS A BIAS IN THE MARKET OVER PAST 50 YRS AVERAGE GAIN 1.5% PA JUST 7 DAYS ONLY MAH...!
However, if the market fails to rally, Hirsch believes that in itself is telling. IF NO RALLY IT GOING BE BAD OR SUI FOR THE WHOLE YEAR.....SO BECAREFUL LOH....BEAR SIGN LOH....! PLEASE TAKE NOTE LOH...! BOOCHOWCCCCCCCCC LOH...!
RAIDER SAY,
AS THE NEW YEAR & CHRISTMAS DAY ALREADY PASSED.....IT CONFIRMED SANTA HAS COME TO MOST OF THE MAJOR WORLD STOCK MARKET BUT EXCLUDING MALAYSIA LOH.
THIS HAS RAMPED OUT MOST OF MAJOR INDEXES ESPECIALLY DOW, SHANGHAI AND NIKKEI.
BUT MALAYSIA IT IS DOWN LOH....BCOS NO SANTA COMING HERE LOH....!!
WHY LEH ? BCOS SANTA IS NOT WELCOME MAH
"If Santa Claus should fail to call bears may come to Broad and Wall (Street)," says Hirsch. In 1999 and 2000, as well as 2007 - 08 were recent harbingers of doom when investors would have been well-served to heed.
Hirsch himself notes the limitations of basing an investing strategy on seven trading days. It's data mining, and as Hirsch puts it "if you torture numbers long enough you can get them to say anything." What these numbers are telling us is we best pay at least some attention to the trading at the end of next month.
Before blithely dismissing the data look at the tape for the last decade and 2011 in particular. It's not really the place of any investor to start getting snobby about their foolproof methodology, now is it?
ON CHOYSUN RALLY THE AVERAGE GAIN....IS EVEN MORE POWERFUL BASE ON SENIOR ANALYST STUDY AVERAGE GAIN OF 3% PA.........7 DAYS B4 CHINESE NEW YEAR AND 15 DAYS AFTER FOR THE PAST 40 YRS....!
SO ALL MEMBERS JUST PRAY THAT CHOYSUN WILL NOT LIKE SANTA MAH !! & HE WILL COME TO MALAYSIA TO SAVE THE DAY FOR ALL US B4 & AFTER CHINESE NEW YEAR LOH....!
DO U BELIEVE IN SANTA & CHOYSUN RALLY ?
RAIDER BELIEVE LOH.......!!
MUST HAVE SOME HOPE MAH......!!
Posted by stockraider > 2015-02-08 13:25 | Report Abuse
SO WHEN CHOYSUN ARRIVE ?
ACCORDING TO TUKANG TILIK ESTIMATE IS AROUND 5-2-2015...CHOYSUN EMERGING LOH.....!
SO WHEN CHOYSUN LEAVE LEH ?
ACCORDING TO TUKANG TILIK AROUND 3-3-2015 LOH.....!
SO DON MISS LOH....TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THIS TUKANG TILIK DATES LOH....!
FOR YOUR INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY LOH....!
PLEASE PRAY TO WELCOME CHOYSUN POTENTIAL ARRIVAL IN MALAYSIA MAH....!!
Posted by stockraider > 2015-02-08 13:32 | Report Abuse
Rising Stock Prices and the Return of Arrogance - safalniveshak
Author: Tan KW | Publish date: Sun, 23 Nov 15:49
Disclaimer: This post is not my attempt to predict what lies in the future and where the stock market is headed, because I have a post-graduate degree in making disastrous predictions, especially about the future. What I am sharing below is what I have started experiencing around me, and why I believe you, as an investor, must be very careful of falling into the trap of people making rosy predictions about the future.
One of the key themes of my discussions with investors during my extensive travel over the past few days was that risk-taking and arrogance is back in the stock market.
I got a hint of this from a lot of people stressing on the benefits of borrowing money to invest in “great opportunities” available out there.
So one participant at my Indore workshop argued – “Why shouldn’t I borrow at 10-12% interest and invest for 25-30% returns that are there for the taking?”
Another asked in Vadodara – “Why shouldn’t I borrow when I know the opportunity to multiply money is great?”
Without doubt, I could answer these questions only to the point I understand the dangers of borrowing money to trade or invest in the stock market. Beyond a point, if someone has made up his/her mind that borrowing money is a great idea (because others have found success doing so), I have no answers to provide.
All I know about buying stocks with borrowed money is that it doesn’t make anything a better investment or increase the probability of gains. It merely magnifies whatever gains or losses may materialize. And then, leverage brings destruction if things go bad…really bad. And they often do.
Anyways, related to this point about how bad things can go in the stock market, someone asked me my thoughts on the “worst-case scenario” I can imagine.
Now, here is how our brain plays tricks when it comes to imagining scenarios. We generally imagine only what we have seen or experienced in the recent past.
So my worst-case expectations would often not go beyond what I saw in 2008, for that is only what I remember from recent history.
But this is where Howard Marks brings my imaginations back to the ground. He does that through an entertaining story he shared in The Most Important Thing about worst-case expectations, or how bad things can go…
We hear a lot about “worst-case” projections, but they often turn out not to be negative enough. I tell my father’s story of the gambler who lost regularly. One day he heard about a race with only one horse in it, so he bet the rent money. Halfway around the track, the horse jumped over the fence and ran away. Invariably things can get worse than people expect.
Maybe “worst-case” means “the worst we’ve seen in the past.” But that doesn’t mean things can’t be worse in the future. In 2007, many people’s worst-case assumptions were exceeded.
Am I a Pessimist?
Interestingly, I find a lot of people these days accusing me of being a pessimist whenever I write about practicing caution amidst the ongoing hype all around.
This is especially given that all the “hallowed” investors around are suggesting that ‘this is the time to be in equities’, and that ‘this time it’s different’.
In fact, when I recently posted on Twitter how a surging stock market creates false hopes and false heroes, one person replied – “If surging markets doesn’t make one rich then what does?” – and then – “Being contrarian just for the sake of being one is dangerous.”
I think it is a big fallacy among investors that they need rising prices to create wealth from the stock market. In fact, constantly and/or rapidly rising stock prices are a detriment to someone who wants to accumulate a lot of great businesses at decent prices to benefit from their future potential and growth.
In order to create wealth from stocks, you need to accumulate a lot of them at reasonable or cheap prices (for which you need dull or falling markets) and then let the underlying business work their magic of compounding your money over the long run (15-20 years).
Posted by stockraider > 2015-02-08 13:33 | Report Abuse
But if you can’t think of long term perspectives (the ‘n’ or time horizon in the compounding formula), and you are worried only about earning the highest ‘r’ (the rate of return) as fast as possible, and often borrowing money to magnify the same, you are simply on the path of ruin.
Over a 10-year period, someone who grows his money at 25% per annum for eight years and then loses 40% each in the last two (because of the risks he took earlier), will be poorer than someone who plays it extra-safe and earns just 10% annual return over these 10 years.
Of course, you should not be in stocks if you are playing for just a 10% annual return, but what I am trying to say here is that over-optimism and over-confidence that leads to blind risk-taking can wipe out your great long-term historical returns in just a year or two.
Avoid Losing Your Savings, Sleep, and Reputation
When you take on leverage and show me the math that a 25% annual return over 10 years minus 12% interest cost can still earn you 20%+ return, please remember Nassim Taleb who says that we should judge people by the costs of the alternative, that is if history played out in another way.
As he wrote in his brilliant book Fooled by Randomness…
Clearly, the quality of a decision cannot be solely judged based on its outcome, but such a point seems to be voiced only by people who fail (those who succeed attribute their success to the quality of their decision).
In the same way, be very careful of judging your stock market success by the outcome you achieve, but by the decision you made.
“Leverage can help me magnify my returns” is a great statement to make. But more often now, leverage – which is a result of arrogance created by good short-term returns or a result of survivorship bias, which is concentrating on the people or things that “survived” some process and inadvertently overlooking those that did not – will not only your destroy your savings and sleep, it will also destroy your reputation.
If you think that way, you will do things differently.
By the way, here is what Howard Marks wrote in his latest memo to shareholders…
While investor behaviour hasn’t sunk to the depths seen just before the crisis (and, in my opinion, that contributed greatly to it), in many ways it has entered the zone of imprudence. To borrow a metaphor from Chuck Prince, Citigroup’s CEO from 2003 to 2007, anyone who’s totally unwilling to dance to today’s fast-paced music can find it challenging to put money to work.
It’s the job of investors to strike a proper balance between offense and defense, and between worrying about losing money and worrying about missing opportunity. Today I feel it’s important to pay more attention to loss prevention than to the pursuit of gain. For the last three years Oaktree’s mantra has been “move forward, but with caution.” At this time, in reiterating that mantra, I would increase the emphasis on those last three words: “but with caution.”
Well, I have nothing to add except that while I am an eternal optimist as far as stock market investing is concerned (or why would Safal Niveshak exist to educate you to invest), be very careful of what you are doing with your money and why you are doing it.
To re-quote Howard Marks – Move forward, but with caution.
GENERALLY RULE OF THUMB IS TO AVOID USING MARGIN TO INVEST IN STOCK AT ALL COST. THIS MEAN AVOID SHARE MARGIN LIKE A PLAGUE LOH....!!
HOWEVER RAIDER SIFU SENIOR ANALYST....FELT DIFFERENTLY & IT MAKE SENSE TOO.....!!
HIS ANALYSIS IF U TREAT INVESTMENT IN STOCK LIKE A BUSINESS & YOUR BUSINESS MODEL HAD SHOWN U HAD OUTPERFORMED THE STOCKMARKET.....IN MID TERM AND U HAD EXPERIENCE WITH BEAR RAIDS & LIVE THRU IT...U SHOULD STICK TO YOUR MARGIN LOH....!!
STOCKMARKET IS JUST LIKE ANY BUSINESS LIKE PROPERTY DEVELOPMENT BUYING LAND, PLANTATION COMPANY BUYING MORE PLANTATION, MANUFACTURING BUYING MORE MACHINERY & EXPANDING USING BORROWED MONIES MAH....!!
THE MAIN DIFFERENT OF MARGIN IS THAT....IT IS MARKED TO MARKET MORE INTENSIVELY & IT FALL TOO MUCH....THERE WILL BE MARGIN CALL LOH.....!!
THE KEY TO MARGIN FINANCING AS WITH OTHER BUSINESS....U MUST NOT OVER LEVERAGE LOH...!!
U MUST BE READY WITH SAFEGUARD & DEFENSE LIKE WHAT RAIDER HAS HIGHLIGHTED MAH.....!!
Posted by stockraider > 2015-02-08 13:33 | Report Abuse
SO WHAT R THE SAFEGUARDS ?
SINCE IT IS IMPORTANT.....RAIDER DON MIND REPEATING LOH.....!!
GENERALLY RULE OF THUMB IS TO AVOID USING MARGIN TO INVEST IN STOCK AT ALL COST. THIS MEAN AVOID SHARE MARGIN LIKE A PLAGUE LOH....!!
HOWEVER RAIDER SIFU SENIOR ANALYST....FELT DIFFERENTLY & IT MAKE SENSE TOO.....!!
HIS ANALYSIS IF U TREAT INVESTMENT IN STOCK LIKE A BUSINESS & YOUR BUSINESS MODEL HAD SHOWN U HAD OUTPERFORMED THE STOCKMARKET.....IN MID TERM AND U HAD EXPERIENCE WITH BEAR RAIDS & LIVE THRU IT...U SHOULD STICK TO YOUR MARGIN LOH....!!
STOCKMARKET IS JUST LIKE ANY BUSINESS LIKE PROPERTY DEVELOPMENT BUYING LAND, PLANTATION COMPANY BUYING MORE PLANTATION, MANUFACTURING BUYING MORE MACHINERY & EXPANDING USING BORROWED MONIES MAH....!!
THE MAIN DIFFERENT OF MARGIN IS THAT....IT IS MARKED TO MARKET MORE INTENSIVELY & IT FALL TOO MUCH....THERE WILL BE MARGIN CALL LOH.....!!
THE KEY TO MARGIN FINANCING AS WITH OTHER BUSINESS....U MUST NOT OVER LEVERAGE LOH...!!
U MUST BE READY WITH SAFEGUARD & DEFENSE LIKE WHAT RAIDER HAS HIGHLIGHTED MAH.....!!
BUT IN A BEAR MARKET...WHERE ALMOST ANYTHING SELL OFF....IT QUITE RISKY LOH.....!!
U NEED TO MANAGE THE RISK LOH....!!
"RAIDER ADVISE MARGIN HOLDERS TO REDUCE EXPOSURE TO MAX 20% LEVERAGE LOH....!!
SET CUT OFF POSITION....WHENEVER YOUR SHARE FALL BY 10% SELL IT DOWN BY 30%.....UNTIL U REACH A COMFORTABLE POSITION.
U CAN ALSO REBALANCE YOUR PORTFOLIO GO FOR;
1) STRONG BALANCE SHEET COMPANIES
2) PROFITABLE,CASH RICH & DIVIDEND PAYING
3) HUGE DISCOUNT OF INTRINSIC VALUE
4) STRONG RECURRING CASHFLOW BUSINESS
5) STRONG CONSUMER STAPLE
6) MARKET LEADER BUSINESS LOH
7) ARBITRAGE WHERE YOUR CASH RETURN IS LOCK IN AT A FIXED RETURN
ALTHOUGH REBALANCING DOES NOT GUARANTEE U COMPLETE LOST OF PAIN FROM THE MARKET....BUT IT DO REDUCES THE IMPACT...& HELP U WITHSTAND THE TSUNAMI.......IF U R HIT...!!
WHAT...........IS A REAL MARKET FALL...........RAIDER THINK ...........IT SHOULD FALL.........AT LEAST..........30%........THE CURRENT CORRECTION ABOUT 15%.........HAS NOT FELT THE FULL IMPACT OF THE SELLOFF LOH........!!
BUT U SHOULD.......NOT FEAR....DESPITE....BEAR MARKET...BCOS IT MAY....RECOVER & REBOUN VERY QUICKLY....WITHOUT U.....KNOWING.....LEAVING U BEHIND........!!
SO U MUST NOT BE TOTALLY OUT OF STOCK.........ALWAYS HAVE SOME MARGIN OF SAFETY STOCK..........THAT CAN WITHSTAND TSUNAMI........!!
ALTHOUGH MARKET SELLOFF MAY OVERSHOOT....BUT IF YOUR BUSINESS MODEL U RELY MUST BE SOUND & HAVE SAFEGUARDS MAH . U MAY ACT LIKE A PON...DAN.....BUT U SHOULD NOT FEAR THE STOCKMARKET MAH...!! IF OPPORTUNITY COMES...U MAY USE LEVERAGE TO BUY IF THE RISK REWARDS FAVOURS !!"
Posted by stockraider > 2015-02-08 13:35 | Report Abuse
RAIDER ADVICE !!
ALWAYS STICK TO MARGIN OF SAFETY LOH.....!!
AT LEAST BY DOING THIS U DON GO OVER COMMITTED WHEN CRISIS STRIKE MAH....!!
1.FIRST SIGN OF CRASH LARI KUAT KUAT SELL AT LEAST 30% OF YOUR HOLDING.
2. SELL THE STOCK U HAVE HAND THAT IS NOT PAYING GOOD DIVIDEND YIELD OR HAS LOWER MARGIN OF SAFETY MAH.....!!
3. HANG ON TO YOUR STOCK WHICH HAVE GOOD DIVIDEND YIELD, HIGH MARGIN OF SAFETY, STRONG BALANCE SHEET AND LOW PRICE TO BOOK VALUE.
4. WHEN MKT CRASH DOWN 20% OCCUR....DON JUMP IN IMMEDIATELY LOH....WAIT FOR IT....TO STABILISE AND VOLUME IS XTREMELY LOW B4 U JUMP IN WITH YOUR 1ST 15% LOH.....!!
5. LOOK FOR SIGN OF UPTREND B4 U BUY YOUR BALANCE 15% MAH.....!!
6. TYPE OF STOCK U SUPPOSE TO BUY ? MARGIN OF SAFETY STOCK......ESPECIALLY THE STOCK....U HAD SOLD...AND NOW U GOT CHANCE TO PICK UP AT A FRACTION OF ITS COST LOH......!!
AFTER MARKET CRASH NORMALLY IT TAKES ABOUT 3 YRS FOR IT RECUPERATE AND FINALLY RECOVER LOH...!!
YOUR WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO MAKE EXCEPTIONAL GOOD MONIES IS IN THIS PERIOD LOH....!!
BE PREPARE TO HOLD LONG LOH......!!
BUY WITH MARGIN OF SAFETY .......BUT U MAY INCLUDE SOME GROWTH & BLUECHIPS STOCK INTO YOUR PORTFOLIO TOO LOH......!!!
WHEN THE PE IS XTREMELY LOW AND DIVIDEND YIELD IS XTREMELY HIGH AND THE BALANCE SHEET COMPANY ARE STRONG.....U MAY CONSIDER LEVERAGE LOH.....!!
THIS IS THE BEST TIME TO BORROW LOH.......!!!
BUT MAX LEVERAGE SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN
Posted by stockraider > 2015-02-08 13:37 | Report Abuse
Gravity Vs Inflation - RUN or ENTER .. ? ?
Author: calow1 | Publish date: Mon, 15 Dec 20:49
Theory of Science - GRAVITY
What goes up must come down. I remember someone quoted this to me when price of crude oil skyrocketted many many years back.. and indeed it came down.. and went up again and now it is going downslope... Same goes with price of Gold. I remembered the days where gold was traded in Goldsmith at RM38/gram. Again, it came down...
Theory of Economy - INFLATION
What you must today, you pay more tomorrow. So we recall days where our parents said "one bowl of noodle is like RM0.05".. and today "one bowl of noodle is RM5". So, "face value" appreciates.. so does share price. It is just an effect, that we earn more (in face value terms).. and we pay more and we lift prices.. it is inflation.
Where are we heading to?
1. Commodity prices are falling - almost everything..
2. Earnings are disappointing..
3. Consumers are not so rich - and will be poorer - GST is kicking in. I do not know others.. but many bizman should know.. we pass GST to consumer..
4. Our Malaysians' house-hold debts are reaching ceiling..
5. Many Margin Calls have been triggered.. another round of call.. another round of sell-down.. and more sell-down...
6. Financing been very tough..
7. Everyone is talking about how easy to make money in share trading few months back.. Greedy People Everywhere.
8. Sentiments are poor
9. Confidence is generally dropping
10. It is holiday period soon - we have Christmas, New Year and Chinese New Year coming ahead..
Many stocks seem to value at attract PE... now u can find stocks with PE at 5-8... INARI at PE 12... but, PE is a tricky thing
High PE can suggest company is overvalued or possibly a company has good potential of large earning growth...
Low PE can suggest company is undervalued or likely is investors are losing confidence, foreseeing biz going to suffer...
So GUYS.. which direction u believe we are going towards?
GRAVITY wins or INFLATION wins?
RAIDER'S CONFIDENT PROVEN ANSWER : IN THE LONG RUN MARKET IT ALWAYS UP MAH....!!
SO HAVE CONFIDENT....IF U SELECT GOOD STOCK WITHIN GOOD VALUATION & WITH LOW GEARING AND HOLD FOR LONGER TERM..U WILL MAKE MONIES MAH......!!
THE OTHER THING....IS THAT STOCK IS A GOOD PROTECTION AGAINST INFLATION MAH.....!!
SO START INVESTING LOH......!!
Posted by stockraider > 2015-04-07 18:29 | Report Abuse
There are 56,956 personal finance books on Amazon.com. In aggregate they contain more than 3 billion words.
This seems absurd, because 99% of personal finance can be summarized in nine words:
Work a lot, spend a little, invest the difference.
I'm a big believer that the most important financial lessons can - and should - be distilled down into simple lessons no more than a few sentences in length.
As Nietzsche said, "It is my ambition to say in ten sentences what others say in a whole book."
Here's my attempt to summarize the most important money rules.
1)Spending money to show people how much money you have is the surest way to have less money. Singer Rhianna earns tens of millions of dollars, but found herself "effectively bankrupt" in 2009. When she sued her financial advisor for not doing his job, he offered a legendary response: "Was it really necessary to tell her that if you spend money on things, you will end up with the things and not the money?"
2)Wealth is the stuff you don't see. It's the cars not purchased, the clothes not bought, the jewelry forgone. Money buys things, but wealth - assets like cash, stocks, bonds, in the bank and unspent - buys freedom and security. Pick which one you want, and pick wisely.
3)You should know the difference between unemotional and oblivious. Unemotional is staying calm when disaster strikes. Oblivious is not knowing that disaster is capable of striking.
4)The only way to build wealth is to have a gap between your ego and your income. Getting rich has little to do with your income and everything to do with your savings rate. And your savings rate is just the difference between your ego and your income - how much you can spend in relation to how much you actually spend. Keep that gap in check and you should be fine over time.
5)The goal of investing isn't to minimize boredom. It's to maximize returns. Successful investing is pretty boring. Its main requirement is patience and inaction. You buy a group of stocks or bonds, and then you wait - for years, and years, and years. That's too boring for many people, who insist on tweaking, fiddling, and adjusting their investments. That might be exciting, but it also tends to destroy wealth. If you want to be better than average at anything, you have to do something that most people can't. In investing, that means keeping your hands off and embracing boredom. It's a serious skill.
6)You should know the difference between patience and stubbornness. Patient people are willing to wait a long time, but they're also willing to change their minds when they're proven wrong. Stubborn people are also willing to wait a long time, but no amount of facts can change their opinion. They come up with new reasons to believe something when the original reason is proven wrong. It causes untold amounts of bad decisions in investing.
7)Those who do the best care the least about what others think. Most people are bad with money, so being good means doing things differently than they do. You won't spend as much. You'll invest differently. You'll grow wealth slower. This can make you look like a fool in the short run. But who cares? As billionaire Charlie Munger put it, "Someone will always be getting richer faster than you. This is not a tragedy." Not only is it not a tragedy, it's a necessity. The ability to not care what other people think about what you're doing is mandatory to achieving abnormal results.
8)Spend more time studying those who failed than those who won. You can learn more about money from the person who went bankrupt with a subprime mortgage than you can from Warren Buffett. That's because it's easier and more common to be stupid than it is to be brilliant, so you should spend more effort trying to avoid bad decisions than making good ones. Erik * summed this up well: "In expert tennis, 80% of the points are won, while in amateur tennis, 80% are lost. The same is true for wrestling, chess, and investing: Beginners should focus on avoiding mistakes, experts on making great moves."
9)Wealth is completely relative. According to World Bank economist Branko Milanovic, "the poorest [5%] of Americans are better off than more than two-thirds of the world population." Furthermore, "only about 3 percent of the Indian population have incomes higher than the bottom (the very poorest) U.S. percentile." And those figures are adjusted for differences in cost of living.
10)The easiest way to judge how well you're doing is to compare yourself to people around you. The curse of living in America is that most people are doing well, so your own success looks ordinary. If you want to feel rich, look at the 90% of the world that isn't American or European. You'll realize that feeling rich is just a mental game.
Posted by iwantolearn > 2015-04-24 07:10 | Report Abuse
Hi Stockraider, i wonder if you could teach me how you guys calculate the dividend yields, the payout rate? and why sometimes i saw the dividend yields and payout rate calculated by one website is different from the one the company released?
Posted by stockraider > 2015-07-12 00:11 | Report Abuse
RAIDER COMMENT: IF LENO IS HERE.....RAIDER WILL ADVISE HIM TO BULL...MEANING BUY....BUY LOH....!!
AS USUAL, IT IS TIME TO MAKE A BUNDLE BASED ON OTHER PEOPLE'S MISERY LOH....!!
THE GREAT CHINA....CANNOT BE WRONG LOH....!!
PRESIDENT XIN CANNOT BE PUT TO SHAME LOH...!!
YES....THE OLANG PUTIH....CAN SAY CHINA....FINANCIAL POLICY ARE ALL DEAD WRONG LOH....!!
BUT THE RULES....OF CHINA MARKET....IS SET BY CHINA GOVT MAH....!!
JUST IMAGINE....IF U GO FOR BOXING MATCH OR FOTBALL MATCH....THE REFREE SIDE YOUR OPPONENT....CAN U WIN LEH ??
OF COURSE NO LOH.....!! SO IF U R A BEAR....AGAINST PRESIDENT XIN....CAN U WIN ?
THE ANSWER IS NO KNOW LOH....!!
SO THE RIGHT ACTION IS BULL LOH.....!! BCOS THE MKT...IS RIGGED FOR THE BULL MAH...!!
SO BUY CHINA & HK SHARE LOH.....!!
Posted by stockraider > 2015-07-12 00:12 | Report Abuse
Posted by calvintaneng > Jul 9, 2015 08:10 AM | Report Abuse
Ah Moi, Moi Moi,
Sometimes we should really be contrarian. Share prices have an intrinsic value on its own.
We should not be swayed by Market Sentiment But Act According to our own Set Value.
If Shares Fall Below Intrinsic Value We Should Just Buy. Yes, just buy irrespective of what the maddening crowd is downing.
We MUST FOLLOW OUR OWN CRITERIA & GUIDELINES IN INVESTMENT.
If we INVEST RATIONALLY Then We Will Come Out Fine One Day.
So Black Swan or not doesn't really matter at all. They are all passing things of the moment. The FUTURE as We Know Will Still Be Bright.
After the earthquake, fire & tornado the SUN STILL COME OUT SHINING BRIGHT.
So Learn to INVEST BEYOND THE PRESENT UNCERTAINTY!
RAIDER SAYS THE ABOVE ATTITUDE DISPLAY BY CALVIN.....IS A RIGHT SUCCESSFUL WAY FOR INVESTMENT LOH....!!
U SHOULD NOT WORRY ABOUT MKT SENTIMENT, IF U HAVE A BIG MARGIN OF SAFETY LOH....!!
ON TOP OF THAT U SHOULD BE XTREMELY BULLISH, WHEN THERE IS BLOOD IN THE STREET LOH....!!
THE MORE PESSIMISTIC THE MARKET, U MUST BE MORE BULLISH MAH....!!
THIS IS HOW U MAKE BIG MONIES LOH.....!!
Posted by stockraider > 2015-07-12 00:24 | Report Abuse
As expected:
China bans big shareholders from cutting stakes for next six months
BEIJING/SHANGHAI (Reuters) - Chinese stocks bounced on Thursday, after the securities regulator banned shareholders with large stakes in listed firms from selling, in Beijing's most drastic step yet to stem the dramatic plunges that have roiled global financial markets. As the daily drumbeat of official announcements aimed at propping up the sinking equity market continued, state news agency Xinhua said police.
RAIDER COMMENT; ALWAYS BET IN THE DIRECTION OF GOVERNMENT ESPECIALLY THE CHINESE GOVT LOH....!!
BCOS THEY CAN ALWAYS CHANGE THE RULES OF THE GAME MAH....!!
MORE BIG INTERVENTION COMING $$$$$$ PROFIT LOH.....!!
Posted by stockraider > 2015-07-12 00:29 | Report Abuse
Quote from: johnmaster on July 09, 2015, 04:20:22 PM
Stockraider is right... when investing, you don't care about bear or bull. As long as the counter price fall into what you think is undervalued and match a set of criteria ... just grab it and wait.
These people afraid of this, afraid of that.. when are you going to make money ?
When a counter fly away already, they afraid miss boat.. go and chase until got stucked, then they afraid lose more money cut loss eventually. When a counter is going down, they are afraid to buy because scare will drop further, some even cut loss because think they can buy back cheaper. At the end after cut loss never buy back when the counter suddenly recovers.
so, how to make money ?
Raider Comment;
THIS IS PRECISELY WHAT HAPPEN TO THE CHINA RETAIL INVESTORS.....PEOPLE CHASE....MARKET CRASH....NOW THE RETAIL NEED GOVT HELP LOH...!!
NEVER CHASE....IF PEOPLE CHASE.....U SELL !!.....PEOPLE PANIC SELL....U BUY LOH.....!!
THIS WAY....U MAKE MANY MANY MORE EXCEPTIONAL MONIES.....!!
IN NORMAL DAY....U STILL CAN BUY & MAKE NORMAL PROFITS....BUY MARGIN OF SAFETY COMPANY.....WITH GOOD PROSPECT LOH....!!
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Posted by stockraider > 2014-04-28 09:48 | Report Abuse
The objective of this new topic stock talk.....!! Especially undervalue stocks with margin of safety stock. Also for people to critical review & raider's napshot pick & portfolio