Posted by Keyman188 > 2020-03-28 09:31 | Report Abuse

What could be ‘shocker’ economic reports may test stocks in week ahead

(PUBLISHED FRI, MAR 27 20205:26 PM EDTUPDATED 4 HOURS AGO)

~ Stocks are expected to remain volatile in the week ahead as fresh data on employment and manufacturing will show the impact of the early weeks of the coronavirus shutdown.

~ Market pros have been debating whether a bottom was established this past week after stocks bounced about 20% off their lows, and now some are watching for a retest of those levels.


Everything from auto sales to manufacturing surveys and employment data in the coming week will likely paint a bleak picture of how much the first weeks of the coronavirus shutdown have already hit the economy.

Market turbulence is expected to remain high, though volatile moves in the past week were largely to the upside. The S&P 500, by Thursday, had soared 20% intraday off its Monday low, before giving up some gains Friday. For the week, the S&P 500 was up 10.3% at 2,541.

The market’s rip higher ignited a debate about whether stocks have now bottomed, and that discussion will carry on into the week ahead. Some major investors like billionaire investor Leon Cooperman and BlackRock’s Rick Rieder believe stocks may have hit their lows. Other strategists say the market needs to see a retest before a bottom can be called.

“It’s amazing to me that people are so bullish when virus cases are accelerating and economic growth is deteriorating,” said Richard Bernstein, CEO Richard Bernstein Advisors. “I could see it if cases peaked out, and the economy is troughing.”

It’s the economy

In the coming week, the big number to watch could again be Thursday’s weekly jobless claims, up a record 3.2 million for the week ended March 21, as the shutdown of stores, restaurants, and other businesses across the country resulted in immediate layoffs.

Economists expect several million more claims to be filed for the past week, and they are looking at that new claims report as potentially more important than Friday’s March employment report. The survey week for the March jobs report was ahead of some of the major shutdowns by the states most impacted by the virus. Economists expect nonfarm payrolls to drop by 56,000 in March, according to Dow Jones.

Other data could show some of the early signs of an economy brought to a standstill. There are auto sales and ISM manufacturing releases on Wednesday, both March reports. Service sector data will be released Friday.

Market focus will be more intensely focused on the economic data, shifting from the $2 trillion aid bill, signed by President Donald Trump on Friday. Economists expect the economy already may be in a slowdown and that it should trough with a double-digit decline in the nation’s gross domestic product in the second quarter.

Vehicle sales will be reported Wednesday, and sales are expected to have come to a near standstill even though shuttered dealerships continue trying to deliver autos to buyers.

For “car sales, I would think the drop would be more precipitous,” said Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton. “They shut down in every major market. Even though they’re offering deliveries and all that stuff, it’s going to be a shocker ... large double digit decline.”

Auto sales were at an annualized pace of 16.8 million in February, and some economists say the number in March could be closer to 12 million.

Congress passed a $2 trillion aid package to help put cash in the hands of workers and companies, so they can weather the effects of a shutdown.

Separately, the Fed has delivered a massive amount of monetary stimulus that has helped ease up some of the problems in illiquid credit and even the Treasury market. It has been buying Treasury and mortgage-backed securities at a record pace of $70 billion a day, and markets are focused on when the Fed will alter the size of its purchases, which are open-ended.

“This week, plus last week was more than $600 billion. It’s monumental.” said Michael Schumacher, director, rates at Wells Fargo. The Fed said it was reducing the purchases to $60 billion a day, which is the amount it had been buying in a one-month period.

Stimulus one-two punch
The double-barreled boost to markets from the Fed’s policy and the prospect of the fiscal spending package helped fire up the mid-week rally in stocks.

“Even though the market, from the intraday low on March 23 through the intraday high on March 26, soared more than 20%, which to many is the definition of a new bull market, this low must be sustained before a new bull market can be crowned,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA. “We’ve got to maintain this recent low, in my opinion, for another six months before we can call this another bull market.”


##https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/27/what-could-be-shocker-economic-reports-may-test-stocks-in-week-ahead.html

Posted by Flintstones > 2020-03-28 09:33 | Report Abuse

Please drop more. Drop more buy more

Posted by freddiehero > 2020-03-28 09:36 | Report Abuse

too fast rush in..

Posted by freddiehero > 2020-03-28 09:36 | Report Abuse

oledi said let it break down 1200

Posted by freddiehero > 2020-03-28 09:37 | Report Abuse

c la later on loss how much

Posted by Keyman188 > 2020-03-28 09:45 | Report Abuse

Haa...Haa...

So far I only spend about 1/3 funds invested on long term share holdings....

Long waiting @ 1060....

Sure will come bohhh........

I already long waiting for the past 22 years lorrr.......

You think "1 hayat ada berapa 22 tahun tunggu lehh"..........



##https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/forum/905952080.jsp

Posted by Keyman188 > 2020-03-28 09:49 | Report Abuse

“It’s amazing to me that people are so bullish when virus cases are accelerating and economic growth is deteriorating,” said Richard Bernstein, CEO Richard Bernstein Advisors. “I could see it if cases peaked out, and the economy is troughing.”



^^^^ I like this fellow comments........

Really amazing....&....miracle..........

Posted by Keyman188 > 2020-03-28 13:12 | Report Abuse

U.K.’s Credit Rating Cut Because of All the Money It’s Spending to Fight the VirusBy (March 28, 2020, 5:23 AM GMT+8)

Britain had its credit ranking downgraded by Fitch Ratings, which cited the weakening of public finances caused by the impact of the Covid-19 outbreak.

The ratings company also pointed to the uncertainty regarding the post-Brexit trade relationship with the European Union in cutting the U.K. rating to AA- from AA. The outlook is negative.

“The downgrade reflects a significant weakening of the U.K.’s public finances caused by the impact of the Covid-19 outbreak and a fiscal loosening stance that was instigated before the scale of the crisis became apparent,” Fitch said. “The downgrade also reflects the deep near-term damage to the U.K. economy caused by the coronavirus outbreak and the lingering uncertainty regarding the post-Brexit U.K.-EU trade relationship.”

The economic devastation being wrought by the coronavirus pandemic has blown apart the relatively benign fiscal projections made just a few weeks ago. Fitch now estimates the U.K. economy could contract by close to 4% this year, followed by growth of around 3% in 2021, though there is “material downside risk” to the forecast.

Britain was on course for a budget deficit of 55 billion pounds ($68 billion) in the fiscal year starting April 1. Now, according to Bloomberg Economics, borrowing could reach 160 billion pounds, or more than 7% of gross domestic product, and drive up already elevated levels of government debt.

The dramatic shift reflects the cost of direct government support to the prop up the economy, plus the loss of tax revenue and increased social spending that accompanies a rapidly shrinking economy.

The downgrade comes little more than three months after Fitch improved its assessment of the British economy after Boris Johnson’s emphatic election victory removed the immediate uncertainty over Brexit.



##https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-27/u-k-rating-cut-to-aa-by-fitch-amid-spending-to-fight-covid-19?srnd=premium-asia

Posted by KAQ4468 > 2020-03-28 15:37 | Report Abuse

Below 1200

Posted by KAQ4468 > 2020-03-28 15:38 | Report Abuse

Almost 1100

Posted by KAQ4468 > 2020-03-28 15:38 | Report Abuse

Tikam tikam

Posted by Keyman188 > 2020-03-28 15:48 | Report Abuse

I hope BIG Taikor here can talk more negative...comment more negative...

So let it down down down more.....

If not adik ini tak ada chance nak kutip untuk bersara.....

Please.....Please...Please....

Bagi chance adik sini lahhh........

Adik sudah tunggu 22 tahun........

You think " 1 hayat ada berapa 22 tahun boleh tunggu lagi lehhh"....

Posted by Keyman188 > 2020-03-28 20:34 | Report Abuse

Kesian...kesian...kesian... 

Now I know why Warren Buffet always Warren Buffet.....No matter sunny day or rainy day... 

Now I know why farmers always farmers...No matter drought season or inundation incident... 


** In fact I loved this title...... 

Why "A" Students Work for "C" Students and Why "B" Students Work for the GovernGovernment - author by  Robert T. Kiyosaki 


^^ So "C" students Work for "Who".....!!!!!!

Posted by Lucky81 > 2020-03-28 20:38 | Report Abuse

疫情冲击需求 油价最糟恐剩10美元
wow.! crude oil $10 only.

Posted by ahbah > 2020-03-28 20:44 | Report Abuse

The latest pandemic that infected our whole world with light speed now is FOMO !

FOMO is coming !!!!

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/asias-stockbrokers-swamped-retail-investors-dive-bet-postvirus-bounce

Posted by Keyman188 > 2020-03-29 09:23 | Report Abuse

Lai...lai...lai....

Come & guess...Monday how much can drop for KLCI???....

I guess until 1297 & slightly rebound back above 1300...

Whole day ding dong range 1305 ~ 1315 between...

Posted by freddiehero > 2020-03-29 09:26 | Report Abuse

i don wan c 1200 anymore..

Posted by freddiehero > 2020-03-29 09:26 | Report Abuse

i wan c 888

Posted by Keyman188 > 2020-03-29 18:20 | Report Abuse

Oil-rich wealth funds seen shedding up to $225 billion in stocks
(PUBLISHED SUN, MAR 29 20205:37 AM EDT)

~ Oil producing governments are facing a financial double-whammy – falling revenues due to the spiraling oil price and rocketing spending as administrations rush out emergency budgets.

~ Around $100-$150 billion in stocks have likely been offloaded by oil-producer sovereign wealth funds, excluding Norway’s fund, in recent weeks, and a further $50-$75 billion will likely be sold in the coming months, according to JPMorgan.


Sovereign wealth funds from oil-producing countries mainly in the Middle East and Africa are on course to dump up to $225 billion in equities, a senior banker estimates, as plummeting oil prices and the coronavirus pandemic hit state finances.

The rapid spread of the virus has ravaged the global economy, sending markets into a tailspin and costing both oil and non-oil based sovereign wealth funds around $1 trillion in equity losses, according to JPMorgan strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou.

His estimates are based on data from sovereign wealth funds and figures from the Sovereign Wealth Fund Institute, a research group.

Sticking with equity investments and risking more losses is not an option for some funds from oil producing nations. Their governments are facing a financial double-whammy – falling revenues due to the spiraling oil price and rocketing spending as administrations rush out emergency budgets.

Around $100-$150 billion in stocks have likely been offloaded by oil-producer sovereign wealth funds, excluding Norway’s fund, in recent weeks, Panigirtzoglou said, and a further $50-$75 billion will likely be sold in the coming months.

“It makes sense for sovereign funds to frontload their selling, as you don’t want to be selling your assets at a later stage when it is more likely to have distressed valuations,” he said.

Most oil-based funds are required to keep substantial cash-buffers in place in case a collapse in oil prices triggers a request from the government for funding.

A source at an oil-based sovereign fund said it had been gradually raising its liquidity position since oil prices began drifting lower from their most recent peak above $70 a barrel in October 2018.

In addition to the cash reserves, additional liquidity was typically drawn firstly from short-term money market instruments like treasury bills and then from passively invested equity as a last resort, the source said.

It’s generally a similar trend for other funds.

“Our investor flows broadly show more resilience than market pricing would suggest,” said Elliot Hentov, head of policy research at State Street Global Advisors. “There has been a shift toward cash since the crisis started, but it’s not a panic move but rather gradual.”

The sovereign fund source said the fund had made adjustments to its actively-managed equity investments due to the market rout, both to stem losses and position for the recovery, when it comes.

Exactly how much sovereign wealth funds invest and with whom remain undisclosed. Many don’t even report the value of the assets they manage.

On Thursday, the Norwegian sovereign wealth fund said it had lost $124 billion so far this year as equity markets sunk but its outgoing CEO Yngve Slyngstad said it would, at some point, start buying stocks to get its portfolio back to its target equity allocation of 70% from 65% currently.

Slyngstad also said that any fiscal spending by the government this year would be financed by selling bonds in its portfolio.

Defending the currency
State-backed, energy-rich funds account for a significant chunk of the roughly $8.40 trillion in total sovereign wealth assets, funds they’ve built up as a bulwark for when oil revenues dry up.

Sovereign funds have become major players on global stock markets, accounting for roughly 5-10% of total holdings, and an important source of income for Wall Street asset managers.

While they have been hit hard by the approximate 20% slide in global equity prices, the oil-based funds’ governments in Abu Dhabi, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Nigeria and Angola have also seen their finances strained by a nearly two thirds drop in oil prices this year.

Gulf sovereign wealth funds could see their assets decline by $296 billion by the end of this year, according to Garbis Iradian, chief Middle East and North Africa economist at the Institute of International Finance (IIF).

Around $216 billion of that fall would be from stock market losses and a further $80 billion from drawdowns taken by cash-squeezed governments.

The central banks of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar have offered a total $60 billion in stimulus, although expectations of tighter liquidity have already pressured Gulf currencies, pegged for decades to the U.S. dollar.


##https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/29/oil-rich-wealth-funds-seen-shedding-upto-225-billion-in-stocks.html

Posted by Keyman188 > 2020-03-29 18:22 | Report Abuse

Waaa....Black Monday repeat again tomorrow !!!....

Seem like super duper bad impact on Saudi Arabia...UAE...Qatar.......

Posted by KAQ4468 > 2020-03-29 18:55 | Report Abuse

1200 kasi mariiiiii

Pasar malam @ 1100



Kikikiki kui

Posted by freddiehero > 2020-03-29 19:54 | Report Abuse

itu tidak kuat lagi la..

Posted by freddiehero > 2020-03-29 19:55 | Report Abuse

lets break 888

Posted by Keyman188 > 2020-03-29 21:06 | Report Abuse

The Global Oil Market Is Broken, Drowning in Crude Nobody NeedsBy 

(March 29, 2020, 11:00 AM GMT+8)


~ Virus lockdowns have cut global oil consumptions by up to 25%

~ The world is fast running out of space to store excess crude



The global oil market is broken, overwhelmed by an unmanageable surplus as virus lockdowns cascade through the world’s largest economies.

Onshore tanks in many markets are full, forcing traders to store excess oil in idle supertankers. Refineries are starting to shut down because nobody needs the fuels they produce. In physical oil markets, barrels are already changing hands for less than $10, and in a few landlocked markets producers are paying consumers to take away their crude.

“The physical oil market has seized up,” said Gary Ross, an influential oil watcher and chief investment officer of Black Gold Investors LLC. “The logistics are struggling to cope because we are facing a catastrophic loss of demand.”

Oil traders say it’s likely to get worse this week.

The root cause is an accelerating plunge in consumption that’s without precedent since a steady flow of oil became essential to the global economy more than a century ago. The great crash of 1929, the twin oil shocks of the 1970s and the global financial crisis don’t come close. The world normally uses 100 million barrels of oil day, and traders and analysts reckon as much as a quarter of that has disappeared in just a few weeks.

The global airline industry is grounded, countless businesses and factories are shuttered and billions of people have been forced to stay home.

“Demand clearly is off, in some parts of the world, very dramatically,” Chevron CEO Mike Wirth told Bloomberg TV.

The immediate problem is a lack of storage in the right places. With demand running 20 million barrels a day below supply, the world won’t have enough tanks to store the surplus in two or three months. But the issue is even more pressing because global tank capacity, mostly concentrated in a few hubs like Rotterdam, the Caribbean and Singapore, isn’t available to every producer. For those without access to pipelines and ports, local storage will run out in days, traders and consultants say.

For those with access to the coast, one solution is to use the supertanker fleet as floating storage tanks, and that’s happening at an unprecedented rate. The CEO of the world’s largest tanker owner, Frontline Ltd., said on Friday that he’d never known such demand to hire ships for long-term storage. Traders could book ships to put 100 million barrels at sea this week alone, he estimated, but even that could accounts forless than a week’s oversupply.

In the U.S., one of the largest pipeline companies, Plains All American Pipeline LP, has asked oil producers to voluntarily cut output to avoid overwhelming the network that connects well heads to refineries through thousands of miles of pipelines.



##https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-29/the-global-oil-market-is-broken-drowning-in-crude-nobody-needs?srnd=premium-asia

Posted by ahbah > 2020-03-29 21:39 | Report Abuse

Dr Doom vs Dr Bloom, who will win ?

Dr Doom = all the bears

Dr Bloom = all the govts, central n world banks of the world n all the medical experts.

The bears are fighting with the govts, central banks n world banks n all the medical experts.

And the winner is ............... ?

Posted by ahbah > 2020-03-29 21:50 | Report Abuse

Shall I bet against the govts n central banks who flooded the economy with unprecedented amount of moni ?

And the medical experts no got able to win their fight with covid-19 ?

Posted by moven00 > 2020-03-29 21:57 | Report Abuse

Kasi dia Turun la. Buat ganggu aje. Ya, masalah FOMO dah mai. Ramai new player buka account mau jadi jutawan woih...

Posted by ahbah > 2020-03-29 22:00 | Report Abuse

Which camp shall I join ?

I really kepala pening !

Posted by moven00 > 2020-03-29 22:03 | Report Abuse

Bro Ahbah, pi join kem PLKN. Hahahaha.
Balik from PLKN Kem, market Turun below 1000 points...terus boleh beli, tak payah pening Kepala.

Posted by ahbah > 2020-03-29 22:08 | Report Abuse

Our KLCI turun below 1000 pts n our Pak Din lost his fight to covid-19 ?

Posted by ahbah > 2020-03-29 22:09 | Report Abuse

PLKN = what, please ? Thanks.

Posted by moven00 > 2020-03-29 22:12 | Report Abuse

@ ahbah - PLKN = Program Latihan Khidmat Negara.
Itu pak Din kasi sikit chance sama dia la. Teruk dia Kepala pening sekarang. Pikir nak cam mana lukis strict “market turun”.

Posted by ahbah > 2020-03-29 22:13 | Report Abuse

moven00, it looks like FOMO is also spreading very fast n is more deadly than covid-19 ?

If we no jump in first, then we will miss the boat$$$ ?

Posted by ahbah > 2020-03-29 22:13 | Report Abuse

Thanks.

Posted by ahbah > 2020-03-29 22:21 | Report Abuse

IMF boss said go BIG to the govts.

How shall we respond ? Still remain a tikus player ?

Posted by ahbah > 2020-03-29 22:26 | Report Abuse

I think if we want to fight with covid-19, we need to put on hand gloves ?

And the winner is ............... hand gloves ?

Posted by zhen wei & JP > 2020-03-29 22:32 | Report Abuse

Hi, just pass by. the winner is SEA.
South east asia the largest manufacture of medical equipment.

Bet on the largest picture.

WHO WIN NOW?

Posted by ahbah > 2020-03-29 22:39 | Report Abuse

I really no know !

But I shall go to the pharmacy, buy some medicine n hand glove, join our Pak Din's camp n fight with covid-19 !

With our Pak Din n the holy man prayer, I hope to win the fight with covid-19 !

Posted by ahbah > 2020-03-29 22:43 | Report Abuse

With medical equipment, medicine n hand glove on our hands, can we win our fight with covid-19 ?

Posted by Keyman188 > 2020-03-29 22:47 | Report Abuse

Fauci Says 200,000 Deaths in the U.S. Are Possible: Virus

UpdateBloomberg News

March 29, 2020, 5:44 AM GMT+8Updated on March 29, 2020, 10:18 PM GMT+8


U.S. coronavirus deaths could reach 200,000, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases Director Anthony Fauci said, calling the estimate “fluid.”

Spain had its deadliest day of the pandemic as the nation’s overloaded health-care system struggles to cope with almost 80,000 cases of Covid-19.



##https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-28/nyc-quarantine-debated-italy-deaths-pass-10-000-virus-update?srnd=premium-asia

Posted by Keyman188 > 2020-03-30 08:54 | Report Abuse

Oil Plummets to 17-Year Low as Broken Market Drowns in Crude

(March 30, 2020, 6:23 AM GMT+8 Updated on March 30, 2020, 7:14 AM GMT+8)

~ Tightening coronavirus restrictions are eroding demand

~ Saudi Arabia, Russia are increasing output in price war


Crude dropped to its lowest in 17 years as virus lockdowns cascaded through the world’s largest economies, leaving the market overwhelmed by cratering demand and an unmanageable surplus.

Futures in London fell as much as 7.6% to their lowest since November 2002 while also slumping in New York to trade below $20 a barrel. Physical oil markets are struggling to store fuel, hit by a double whammy of coronavirus restrictions eroding demand while Saudi Arabia and Russia dig in their heels over a damaging war for market share.

The kingdom said on Friday that it hadn’t had any contact with Moscow about output cuts or enlarging the OPEC+ alliance of producers. Russia also doubled down, with Deputy Energy Minister Pavel Sorokin saying oil at $25 a barrel is unpleasant, but not a catastrophe for Moscow.

“Demand concerns are critical but well known, what really took the market down were the signals we got from Saudi Arabia and Russia that they intend to continue their current path,” said Vivek Dhar, a commodities analyst at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. “Market hopes of a deal have come undone.”

OPEC nations aren’t giving support to a request from the group’s president for emergency consultations over tanking prices, according to a delegate. Algeria, which holds the cartel’s rotating presidency, urged the secretariat this week to convene a panel that assesses market conditions but the request has failed to gather the majority backing necessary to go ahead. Riyadh is among those opposing the idea.

The world normally uses 100 million barrels of oil day, but traders and analysts reckon as much as a quarter of that has disappeared in just a few weeks. The accelerating plunge in consumption is without precedent since a steady flow of oil became essential to the global economy more than a century ago. The great crash of 1929, the twin oil shocks of the 1970s and the global financial crisis don’t come close.

Brent crude for May lost as much as $1.90 to $23.03 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange before trading at $23.54 at 9:54 a.m. Sydney time. West Texas Intermediate fell as much $1.59 to $19.92 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange before trading at $20.29.


##https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-29/oil-plummets-to-17-year-low-as-virus-threatens-demand-slump?srnd=premium-asia





^^^^^^^How much can go...go...go...!!!!!!!!

Posted by ahbah > 2020-03-30 11:33 | Report Abuse

Those who put on their hand gloves n fight with covid-19 today win the

first round even in a red burning mkt !

Posted by Keyman188 > 2020-03-30 12:12 | Report Abuse

Sian lorrr.....

Not much selling pressure.....

Haizz.....really effective after temporarily suspended IDSS & margin call.....

Posted by Keyman188 > 2020-04-02 07:55 | Report Abuse

Gundlach, Marks Are Among Those Seeing More Losses Coming

(April 1, 2020, 11:47 AM GMT+8 Updated on April 1, 2020, 1:59 PM GMT+8)

Equity investors just witnessed the worst quarterly plunge since the financial crisis, and some expect more losses ahead.

Asset prices could fall further as the range of negative outcomes from the coronavirus pandemic is much wider than during the global financial crisis, according to Oaktree Capital Group co-founder Howard Marks. DoubleLine Capital Chief Investment Officer Jeffrey Gundlach says the S&P 500 Index is likely to reach new lows in April, with economic uncertainty further riling investors.

A gauge of global equities sank 22% in the first quarter, the most since 2008, as worries about an all but certain recession swept through markets despite governments worldwide pumping trillions to prop up economies and central banks undertaking emergency interest-rate cuts. Driven by some of the lowest oil prices since the early 2000s, the amount of distressed bonds surged to the highest level since April 2009, quadrupling in less than a week to nearly $1 trillion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

“I think we’re going to get something that resembles that panicky feeling again during the month of April,” Gundlach said Tuesday during a webcast on the market and economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic. “We will get back to a better place, but it’s just not going to bounce back in a V-shape back to January of 2020.”

U.S. equities are likely to follow their counterparts in places like Japan and the emerging markets, which didn’t rebound to highs reached more than a decade ago, he said. The MSCI All-Country World Index slipped 0.3% as of 1:52 p.m. in Hong Kong Wednesday.

In a note to clients Tuesday, Marks said assets on Friday were priced “fairly” for the optimistic case, but “didn’t give enough scope for the possibility of worsening news.” The most important now is “to be ready to respond to and take advantage of declines.” He pointed to a negative case that encompasses more Covid-19 infections and deaths, job and business losses, and mounting defaults.

Jim Rogers, the chairman of Rogers Holdings Inc., is also on the bearish side. He says another rout is imminent because of a triple whammy of coronavirus-fulled economic damage, high debt levels and low interest rates that will hurt when they rise.

Rogers expects “the worst bear market in my lifetime” in the next couple of years, he said in an interview. His concerns have grown as the debt of businesses afflicted by lockdowns and travel bans comes under the the spotlight. The impact of the virus on economies “will not be over quickly because there’s been a lot of damage. A gigantic amount of debt has been added,” he said.

Like Marks, Gundlach and Rogers, the fund manager overseeing the fortune of the Lego billionaires says equity markets remain too volatile to justify any bargain hunting.

“This is not the time to be brave,” Soren Thorup Sorensen, who manages an $18 billion portfolio as the chief executive officer of Kirkbi Group, said in an interview on Tuesday. As a long-term investor, the best response is to “sit still and weather the storm,” he added.


##https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-01/rogers-gundlach-say-the-worst-of-the-rout-has-yet-to-come

Posted by Keyman188 > 2020-04-02 07:59 | Report Abuse

Gundlach Says Stocks to Fall Beyond Lows Reached in March

(April 1, 2020, 5:15 AM GMT+8 Updated on April 1, 2020, 6:04 AM GMT+8)


The March lows that the S&P 500 Index reached are likely to be surpassed in April as economic uncertainty further riles investors and stocks probably won’t match recent highs for a long time, according to bond manager Jeffrey Gundlach.

“I think we’re going to get something that resembles that panicky feeling again during the month of April,” Gundlach, chief investment officer for DoubleLine Capital, said Tuesday during a webcast on the market and economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic.

The S&P 500 fell 12.5% in March, its worst monthly performance since October 2008. The gauge’s decline ended the longest bull market in history.

The U.S. is likely to follow Japan, Europe and emerging economy stock markets that haven’t rebounded to highs reached more than a decade ago, according to Gundlach.

“It won’t be back to where it was prior for a long time to come,” he said, “particularly on a real basis.”

Gundlach also said it will take time -- and sacrifice -- for the U.S. economy to eventually grow stronger.

“We will get back to a better place, but it’s just not going to bounce back in a V-shape back to January of 2020,” he said.

Among his other comments:

- Projections by major banks that the U.S. economy will quickly recover from the coming recession are too optimistic.

- The current economy resembles a “depression.”

- U.S. economic and monetary stimulus will probably reach $10 trillion.

- Unemployment will rise to 10%.

- The dollar is likely to weaken as U.S. debt mushrooms.


In his prior webcast on March 17, Gundlach said there may be a 90% chance of a U.S. recession this year, the national debt could grow to $30 trillion in two to three years and investors should prepare for “en masse” corporate debt defaults and downgrades. He later attacked government bailouts as plans to backstop “greed and mismanagement,” according to a March 19 Twitter post.

The $51 billion DoubleLine Total Return Bond Fund, Gundlach’s mortgage-focused flagship fund, lost 1.3% this year through Monday and returned an annual average 2.6% over five years.


##https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-31/gundlach-says-stocks-to-fall-beyond-lows-reached-in-march

Posted by Keyman188 > 2020-04-02 08:02 | Report Abuse

Jim Rogers Expects ‘Worst Bear Market in My Lifetime’ in Coming Years

(April 1, 2020, 9:31 AM GMT+8)

As global stocks attempt to recover from their biggest quarterly loss since the global financial crisis, veteran investor Jim Rogers says there’s worse to come.

The current rebound in markets may continue for a while following a bout of extreme pessimism, but another rout is imminent, according to the chairman of Rogers Holdings Inc. That’s because of a triple whammy of coronavirus-fulled economic damage, high debt levels and interest rates that are low, which will hurt when they rise.

Opening Day Of The St Petersburg International Economic Forum 2018
Jim RogersPhotographer: Andrey Rudakov/Bloomberg
“I expect in the next couple of years we’re going to have the worst bear market in my lifetime,” Rogers said in a phone interview.

Stocks plummeted in the first three months of the year as worries about an all but certain recession swept through markets. A global gauge of emerging- and developed-world equities posted its worst quarter since 2008, even as governments worldwide pumped trillions to prop up economies and central banks undertook emergency interest-rate cuts.

This is not the first time he shared such bearish views. Rogers, who co-founded the Quantum Fund with George Soros in the 1970s, had said a bear market was imminent back in 2018. His concerns have grown since, as the debt of businesses afflicted by lockdowns and travel bans comes under the the spotlight.

The impact of the virus on economies “will not be over quickly because there’s been a lot of damage. A gigantic amount of debt has been added,” he said.

Rogers is not surprised by the recent flight to quality, saying it’s a “tried and true” function of markets in distress. “There is absolutely no question that throughout history, when you’ve had bear markets, companies with low debt are the ones that people love the most because they don’t have to worry about bankruptcy,” he said.

He noted companies with a strong market share also tend to emerge relatively unscathed, unless they are highly leveraged. For now, he has “a lot of cash” in U.S. dollars, some Chinese and Russian stocks, and he is considering investing in Japanese equities. The executive said he’s waiting to snap up shares in some of the most beaten-down sectors such as tourism, transportation, airlines and agriculture in China and globally.

“The Chinese economy is opening again, people are going back to work. Factories, restaurants are opening again,” he said. “I am looking at life, and life is not such that we are all going to take the bus and take boats again.”


##https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-01/jim-rogers-expects-worst-bear-market-in-next-couple-of-years

Posted by Keyman188 > 2020-04-02 08:04 | Report Abuse

Lego Billionaires’ Fund Says Now’s No Time to Buy Stocks

(April 1, 2020, 12:00 AM GMT+8 Updated on April 1, 2020, 1:39 PM GMT+8)

The fund manager overseeing the fortune of the Lego billionaires says equity markets remain too volatile to justify any bargain hunting.

“This is not the time to be brave,” Soren Thorup Sorensen, the chief executive of Kirkbi Group said in an interview on Tuesday. He spoke shortly after unveiling a set of results that showed he almost doubled the Lego family’s investment profits in 2019.

“Volatility is at historic highs,” said Sorensen, who manages an $18 billion portfolio as the Kirkbi CEO. As a long-term investor, the best response is to “sit still and weather the storm,” he said.

Global stocks, measured by the MSCI World Index, have slumped by more than 20% since mid-February, leaving many companies undervalued. Larry Fink, the CEO of BlackRock Inc., said in his annual letter to shareholders that the sell-off has created an “attractive opportunity” for some clients to “rebalance into equities.”

“At some point, it could be in two months, it could be in four months, we will see opportunities and we will then be ready,” Sorensen said.

“Right now, it’s important to acknowledge that the uncertainty over the depth and the duration of the current situation is too large,” he said.

Instead of looking for new investments, Sorensen said Kirkbi is spending its time making sure the companies it already owns are sound. Aside from toymaker Lego, Kirkbi has stakes in ISS A/S, Nilfisk A/S and Landis+Gyr AG. It also owns 50% of Merlin Entertainments, the operator of the Legoland parks, after increasing its stake last year.

Kirkbi recently decided to join the board of ISS, as it seeks greater influence over the companies it owns.

“We want to be an active owner in the companies where we have significant ownership,” Sorensen said. “We want to vote at the shareholder meetings, we want to be a driving factor to convince management about CSR and sustainability,” and “this can be through a board membership or a close dialogue with management,” he said.

Kirkbi is chaired by Kjeld Kirk Kristiansen, the grandson of Lego’s founder and one of Denmark’s richest men with a fortune of $4.1 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index. In recent years, he has handed more control of Kirkbi to his three children, Agnete Kirk Thinggaard, Sofie Kirk Kristiansen and Thomas Kirk Kristiansen, who have a personal fortune of about $4 billion each.

The fund, which has investments in solar and wind power, has outlined a new strategy which includes spending more on renewable energy, Sorensen said. Its next investment could be in new areas like battery technology or energy efficiency, he said.

“The world’s demand for sustainable energy and more energy efficiency will only rise,” the CEO said.


##https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-31/lego-billionaires-fund-manager-girds-for-volatility-traps

Posted by Keyman188 > 2020-04-02 08:11 | Report Abuse

Oaktree’s Marks Says Worst Likely Still to Come for Asset Prices

(April 1, 2020, 8:54 AM GMT+8)

Oaktree Capital Group co-founder Howard Marks says he expects asset prices to extend their declines, and that the market rebound in recent days doesn’t account for how much worse the fallout from the coronavirus outbreak could potentially be.

“Assets were priced fairly on Friday for the optimistic case but didn’t give enough scope for the possibility of worsening news,” he wrote in a Tuesday note to clients. “You may or may not feel there’s still time to increase defensiveness ahead of potentially negative developments. But the most important thing is to be ready to respond to and take advantage of declines.”

Marks wrote that during the 2008 financial crisis, he was concerned about the implications for the economy from a slew of bankruptcies among financial institutions, but there was “no obvious threat to life and limb.” With the escalating Covid-19 pandemic, the range of negative outcomes seems much wider, he wrote.

The 73 year-old pointed to a negative case that encompasses “rising numbers of infections and deaths, unbearable strain on the healthcare system, job losses in the many millions, widespread business losses and mounting defaults.

“If these things arise, investors are likely to shift from the optimism of last week to the pessimism that was prevalent in the rest of March.”

The coronavirus pandemic has fueled the worst equity sell-off since the global financial crisis and deepened stress in credit markets. Driven by some of the lowest oil prices since the early 2000s, the amount of distressed bonds surged to the highest level since April 2009, quadrupling in less than a week to nearly $1 trillion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Oaktree, one of the largest debt investors in the world -- has thrived in times of economic stress, when prices on bonds of companies in danger of defaulting fall to deep discounts. The Los Angeles-based investment giant said earlier this month it’s planning a new distressed-debt fund.

Marks also said in Tuesday’s note that in the last financial crisis, leveraged investment vehicles like collateralized debt obligations brought losses to banks, which were systemically important and therefore got bailed out. Now, risk capital for leveraged securitizations is mainly supplied by non-bank lenders, which are unlikely to receive a government rescue.

“The world will be back to normal someday, although today it seems unlikely to end up unchanged,” Marks wrote.


##https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-01/oaktree-s-marks-says-worst-likely-still-to-come-for-asset-prices

Posted by Keyman188 > 2020-04-02 08:44 | Report Abuse

Waaa....Suddenly some many Stock Market Guru so pessimistic for the Stock Market & Economy Environment....


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-01/rogers-gundlach-say-the-worst-of-the-rout-has-yet-to-come


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-31/gundlach-says-stocks-to-fall-beyond-lows-reached-in-march


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-01/jim-rogers-expects-worst-bear-market-in-next-couple-of-years


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-31/lego-billionaires-fund-manager-girds-for-volatility-traps


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-01/oaktree-s-marks-says-worst-likely-still-to-come-for-asset-prices

Posted by rambolee > 2020-04-02 08:53 | Report Abuse

i think another bottom coming