Market will gradually rebound back from current level low after consolidation
DJIA & S&P500 had stubbornly sustain above 50% retrenchment
Bursa & SC had agreed to further suspension of IDS until end of June 2020 in order to stabilize market volatility
Surprisingly data produced better than expected......
""April’s ISM nonmanufacturing index comes in at 41.8, vs 40 expected
PUBLISHED TUE, MAY 5 202010:00 AM EDT
The U.S. services sector contracted for the first time in about a decade last month as the coronavirus pandemic brought economic activity in the country to a near-screeching halt.
Economists polled by Dow Jones expected the ISM nonmanufacturing PMI to come in at 40 for April.
China Money Manager Up 52% This Year Starts to Buy More Stocks (Bloomberg News May 8, 2020, 4:00 AM GMT+8)
A Chinese money manager whose stock fund has climbed 52% in 2020 says May is no time to shy away from equities.
Wang Rongxin, general manager of Beijing-based Rosin Asset Management Corp., thinks a buying window is at hand. Key annual meetings of the country’s top legislature are set to start in two weeks, and he says possible policies to emerge should fuel China’s economic recovery following pandemic-related lockdowns.
The Zhonggang Yinrun Private Equity Investment Fund, which launched in August, has benefited so far this year from bets in 5G, electric vehicles and pharmaceuticals paying off. It has averaged about a 75% allocation in stocks, but he said the fund could top 90% this month.
“There are dozens of stocks currently on my radar with relatively higher certainty” in areas from infrastructure to the digital economy, said Wang. “Market valuations are close to the bottom, so I am gradually increasing positions. If the market drops 5% or more, I will buy stocks decisively.”
China’s stock market, the only one among the world’s biggest to have not fallen into bear territory this year, has also held up following the recent five-day Labor Day holiday. Investors have shrugged off escalating tensions between the U.S. and China, instead focusing on the prospect of more stimulus from Beijing later this month that could put a charge in the country’s financial markets.
One prime target for Wang is infrastructure, long a home for stimulus spending in China. A trial of real estate investment trusts was announced last week, geared toward allowing Chinese to help fund infrastructure projects. And from the government, “there is still a lot of room for fiscal policy” to be put toward infrastructure, he said.
The fund at Rosin, a firm which manages about 1 billion yuan ($141 million), has been helped by investor optimism toward the rolling out of China’s 5G wireless network and the country’s push to deepen health-care reforms in the wake of the coronavirus, said Wang. Data centers are also a favored sector of his, in the wake of the big work-from-home shift and jump in e-commerce activity.
He does say investors should remain cautious. “We need to keep an eye on whether there will be another wave” of Covid-19 infections as China’s economy continues to reopen. If new cases pick up, Wang said corporate earnings could remain pressured into the third quarter. He also would pare his positions if those stocks fall 10%.
Economic doubts persist, with the earliest April data showing some momentum loss in China and the month’s export growth not expected to persist near-term. Renewed tussles between the U.S. and China also bear watching, he said, but the stock impact from what in recent weeks has been limited to a war of words is “marginally declining.”
“The market doesn’t expect the friction will end any time soon, and relations may even deteriorate,” Wang added. “For Chinese investors, the government’s determination to boost economic growth outweighs concern about U.S.-China relations.”
China, U.S. Teams Agree to Work to Implement Trade Deal
(Bloomberg News May 8, 2020, 10:31 AM GMT+8)
China’s Vice Premier Liu He talked with U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin by phone on Friday Beijing time, according to Chinese state media Xinhua News Agency.
The two sides pledged that they will create favorable conditions for the implementation of the phase one trade deal between China and the U.S., while cooperating on the economy and public health. They also agreed to maintain communications.
Why the stock market is up even with historic job losses
PUBLISHED FRI, MAY 8 20209:22 AM EDTUPDATED 2 HOURS AGO
A record number of Americans just lost their job, and yet stocks are moving higher. This seems paradoxical given the economic toll — to say nothing of the emotional toll — on millions of people across the country without a job.
While some say this is further indication that the stock market has become decoupled from reality, others say there are clear reasons why stocks have rebounded, and can continue to move higher.
For one, the jobs data in and of itself is backward-looking. The April figures — which saw a record 20.5 million Americans lose their job — is from the height of the crisis. Since then, economies have begun to reopen. There is still a long way to go, of course, but the market is discounting what’s going to happen six months from now, when most states will be getting back to business.
Strategists also point out that the losses have been somewhat concentrated in the leisure and hospitality sector, whose underperformance has overshadowed strength in other areas of the market. And with the government and federal reserve providing record stimulus measures, some argue that once businesses do get back up and running, the recovery will be swift.
The S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Averageand Nasdaq Composite all opened higher on Friday, with the Dow surging more than 300 points. Since the March 23 low, all three averages have bounced more than 30%.
Worst over?
While the debate among health experts about how and when economies should reopen is ongoing, some states have already started easing shelter-in-place measures. A number of states including Florida began phase one reopenings on Monday. California became the latest state to lift some of its precautionary measures, with certain low-risk retailers allowed to open beginning Friday.
“The market knows that the job losses are self-inflicted due to the widespread shutdowns,” Bleakley Advisory Group chief investment officer Peter Boockvar told CNBC. “Thus, now that we are beginning the reopening process the market assumes many of these people will hopefully get hired back over the coming months and quarters.”
Additionally, 78% of those who lost their job in April said they were furloughed, meaning the unemployment in theory will be temporary. Goldman strategist Jan Hatzius said this is an important distinction to make, given that it suggests the recovery will be swifter.
“If job losses are concentrated in this segment [furlough], it would increase the scope for a more rapid labor market recovery when the economy eventually rebounds (because employees can be recalled to their previous jobs, as in several past recessions),” he wrote in a note to clients ahead of the report.
Traders Brief - KLCI to Retest 1400-1418 Levels Amid a Strong Comeback by Dow and Surging Oil Prices
Author: HLInvest | Publish date: Fri, 15 May 2020, 9:13 AM
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK: KLCI
We reiterate our stance that KLCI would lock in a short term consolidation unless it can stage a solid breakout above stiff double resistances at 1418 (18 Apr) and 1429 (20 Apr). Conversely, violating the supports at 1386 (20D SMA) and 1368 (50D SMA) could put the bears in the driving seat again, pushing the index lower towards 1359 (22 Apr low) and 1344 (38.2% FR) levels thereafter. Both the MACD and RSI are flattening out whilst the slow stochastic indicator is inching upward, signalling more consolidation ahead.
Parliament open on 18/05/20 only allowed for 1 hour only......
Only "King" will be giving opening speech.............
No debate...no dialogue...during that day................
Memang Malaysia Boleh.....One more history again.............
Posted by Bearvsbull laputee > May 15, 2020 2:18 PM | Report Abuse
Yeah, bursa should be heading 1440 soon! Beside, parlimentt is only half day session, no drama, good for bursa! Harapan leaders very frustracted, they can't cry and role on the floor!
Posted by rich walker > May 15, 2020 1:44 PM | Report Abuse
Given how serious Covid19 has impact global trade, and the prospect that no vaccine will be found a year or 2! Or perhaps will never find one, the global trade definitely coming to a halt! Instead, US and the rest of the world will source domestically for all their needs! We may see a shift that we never seen before for the longest time!
Yeah, rich walker (also known as fortunebullz, real name is kcloh) will become gigolo, his wife will become prostitute
====
Posted by rich walker > May 15, 2020 2:18 PM | Report Abuse
Yeah, bursa should be heading 1440 soon! Beside, parlimentt is only half day session, no drama, good for bursa! Harapan leaders very frustracted, they can't cry and role on the floor!
House Passes $3 Trillion Democratic Stimulus With No Path to Law
May 16, 2020, 9:27 AM GMT+8
The House passed a $3 trillion Democratic economic stimulus bill Friday that Republicans and President Donald Trump have already rejected and isn’t likely to trigger bipartisan negotiations any time soon.
The measure, passed 208-199, would give cash-strapped states and local governments more than $1 trillion while providing most Americans with a new round of $1,200 checks. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said it should be the basis of talks with the GOP-controlled Senate and White House, which have called for a “pause” to allow earlier coronavirus recovery spending to work.
“A horrible virus has made a vicious attack on the lives and livelihoods of the American people, and indeed on the life of our democracy,” Pelosi said on the House floor before the vote. “It’s always interesting to see how much patience some people have with the pain and suffering of other people.”
Pelosi this week has repeatedly invoked Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, who has said Congress will have to inject more fiscal stimulus into the economy to prevent a prolonged recession. The U.S. has more than 1.4 million coronavirus cases, and more than 86,000 have died.
But Republicans also cite the Fed chief, with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell saying Powell hasn’t explicitly said how quickly Congress must act. He and other Republicans have dismissed the House Democrats’ bill as a liberal wish list and are using it to attack Democrats, whom polls give an increasing chance of holding the House and taking the Senate in November’s election.
“This is much more about political messaging than effective legislating,” Republican Representative Tom Cole of Oklahoma said.
Powell Warns of Broad Virus Danger, Bats Down Negative Rates
GOP members said some provisions don’t belong in a virus bill, such as reductions in immigration enforcement, providing stimulus checks to undocumented immigrants, money for the troubled U.S. Postal Service and a national requirement to hold elections by mail.
Trump and Republican congressional leaders have acknowledged, however, that some sort of further economic stimulus will likely be necessary as the economy continues to shed jobs. The number of people filing for unemployment benefits since March now exceeds 36 million.
“Phase four is going to happen but it’s going to happen in a much better way for the American people,” Trump old reporters Friday. He said he holds leverage over Democrats in any future talks.
“We have all the cards because we have the cards of the American people. I know what they want,” the president said.
House Republican leader Kevin McCarthy said he anticipates another bill eventually.
Oil Watchers Applaud Swift Delivery of OPEC+ Supply Cuts
May 16, 2020, 2:00 PM GMT+8 Updated on May 16, 2020, 10:35 PM GMT+8
~ Implementation of 10-million barrel cut deeper than expected
~ Traders, tanker-tracking, refiners point to strong compliance
OPEC+ is responding to the oil market’s collapse with an urgency never seen before.
The alliance’s program of production cutbacks this month is well on the way to trimming 9.7 million barrels of daily crude output -- roughly 10% of global supplies, according to tanker-tracking data, interviews with physical crude traders and refiners, and assessments by consultants. And that’s just in the first two weeks of the agreement.
“The actual production cuts are deeper and more spectacular than any reasonable person would have thought a week ago,” said Ed Morse, head of commodities research at Citigroup Inc.
Despite skepticism over the efficacy of the measures unveiled in mid-April by Saudi Arabia, Russia and their partners, compared to the immense hit to demand, the impact has been substantial. Oil prices have recovered by 60% in the past three weeks, as a pick-up in fuel use is complemented by the supply cuts.
Most likely this few days will focus more on energy sector for rotation play.....since WTI withstand above $30++ & Brent oil withstand above $33++..........
Singapore's exports grow 9.7% in April (18 May 2020 08:30AM)
SINGAPORE: Singapore's non-oil domestic exports (NODX) grew 9.7 per cent year-on-year in April, a drop from the 17.6 per cent growth that was seen in March, according to official data release on Monday (May 18).
April's expansion was largely due to pharmaceuticals, which grew from a low base a year ago, while electronics declined.
On a month-on-month seasonally adjusted basis, NODX fell 5.8 per cent in April, a reverse from the previous month's 12.8 per cent expansion.
Total trade decreased over the year in April - a decline of 12.8 per cent, a further drop from the 0.2 per cent fall in March.
Total exports fell 12.7 per cent, similar to the 13 per cent decline in imports.
Shipment to Singapore's top 10 markets grew in April, though exports to China, Hong Kong, Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand declined; growth was mainly due to the US, the European Union and Japan.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Posted by Keyman188 > 2020-04-28 14:21 | Report Abuse
Market will gradually rebound back from current level low after consolidation DJIA & S&P500 had stubbornly sustain above 50% retrenchment Bursa & SC had agreed to further suspension of IDS until end of June 2020 in order to stabilize market volatility