Posted by EngineeringProfit > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Starting with how rising oil prices (connected to war) can suppress steel and aviation sectors:

Fire (Energy Sector)
- Rising Oil Prices (Fire): Fire represents energy, and rising oil prices typically benefit energy companies (oil & gas). However, this increase can negatively impact industries that rely heavily on energy, such as steel production and aviation (which are metal-based).

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Suppress: If energy prices rise (fire grows), wood-based industries (like agriculture) could be negatively affected by increased production costs due to higher fuel prices for machinery and transport.

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Suppress: Rising oil prices (Fire) can suppress Metal industries (like mining, steel, construction, and aviation) by increasing the cost of raw materials and transport

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Suppress: Rising oil prices (Fire) can suppress water-related industries (like shipping, pharmaceuticals, and technology. Water is often sensitive to global trade dynamics.), especially shipping, where fuel costs directly impact profits.

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Suppress: Earth (represents stability, structure, and material wealth, associated with real estate, construction, and commodities) can be impacted negatively by high oil prices, which increase the cost of building materials and transportation.

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However, Fire (Energy) supports Earth (Commodities/Real Estate): Rising oil prices might support the real estate sector if oil-rich regions see an influx of wealth, leading to development.

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Tarot Card: The Devil

The image of the oil and gas sector as "devilish" in the stock market arises from its tendency to thrive during periods of economic downturns or bear markets, often exacerbating challenges faced by other sectors.

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Geopolitical Tensions and Supply Constraints: During economic uncertainty or geopolitical crises, supply chains in oil and gas may be disrupted (e.g., sanctions, conflicts), leading tohigher oil prices. This boosts oil and gas stocks as demand remains constant, but supply becomes constrained, making these companies among the few winners in a bear market.

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Counter-cyclical Nature: In times of recession, central banks may ease monetary policies or governments might increase fiscal spending. These policies often spur demand for energy resources, including oil and gas, driving up prices even when the broader economy is struggling. As a result, oil and gas companies can post robust profits while most other sectors suffer from lower consumer demand and reduced spending.

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Tarot Card: The Devil

Inflationary Pressure: A spike in oil prices often leads to general inflation across the economy, as the cost of goods, transportation, and services rise. This inflation can erode purchasing power, suppressing consumer spending, and creating a negative feedback loop for sectors dependent on consumer demand, such as retail and hospitality.

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Financial Sector: Banks and financial institutions also struggle as rising oil prices contribute to inflation and economic instability, which can lead to tightening monetary policies, reduced consumer lending, and lower market confidence. This makes it harder for banks to expand their loan portfolios and affects their earnings.

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Corporate Profits Amid Public Strain: When oil companies post record profits during recessions or crises (as seen during the 2022 energy crisis), it adds to their "villain" image. While most other sectors are forced to lay off employees or cut costs, oil companies often expand and reward shareholders, further widening economic inequality.

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Tarot Card: The Devil

Boom Cycles for Oil, Bust for the Economy: Oil price spikes can precede or follow significant market corrections, as higher energy costs increase inflationary pressures and reduce economic growth. This often leads to reduced consumer spending and investment, driving other sectors into recession. While oil and gas stocks may continue to perform well in the short term, the broader economy suffers from stagflation or shrinking growth.

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Yes, look at the bubble of wallstreet. Financial bloodshed in the markets is coming.

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Tarot Card: The Wise Hermit - Buying opportunity or market under pressure?

If unsure or no clear bull run or no obvious theme, KEEPING CASH is the wisest thing to do- be a seasoned seasonal trader! Even Dan Zanger did not trade all the time- and only win big finally from the then USA superbull run over 2 years.

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The concept of "Oracle: The Wise Hermit" is a metaphor for a seasoned trader who exercises patience and caution, waiting for the right moment to strike in the market. This trader, much like the archetypal hermit in tarot, embraces the idea that not every moment is opportune for action. Instead, sometimes the wisest move is to do nothing—holding cash when there are no clear trends or a stable bull market.

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The Hermit’s Wisdom: Patience and Discernment

Oracle and Hermit Symbolism: In both tarot and broader mystical interpretations, the hermit represents wisdom gained through introspection and solitude. Applied to trading, this means taking a step back to reflect, analyze, and avoid impulsive decisions.

Keeping Cash as a Strategy: In uncertain market conditions, holding cash can be a defensive strategy, protecting against unnecessary risks. The "Oracle" knows that market volatility can be dangerous, and waiting for a clear buying opportunity is a more calculated move than trying to force gains in a choppy or bearish market.

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The Current Market: Pressure and Uncertainty- any real theme to play for good profits?

Market Under Pressure: When markets are struggling or in a bear phase, it often leads to pressure on most asset classes. Investors frequently look for trends, but without a clear bull run or strong themes (such as tech booms or recovery cycles), the risk-reward ratio in active trading may not be favorable.

Dan Zanger's Strategy: Dan Zanger, a well-known trader, famously sat out of the market during uncertain periods. His success came from waiting for a definitive bull run, during which he made significant profits. Zanger’s approach teaches that not every moment is ripe for action—successful traders pick their moments.
Cash Preservation: In line with the hermit's cautious wisdom, holding cash during market corrections or high volatility is a preservation strategy. Cash provides liquidity for when true opportunities arise, avoiding unnecessary losses during tumultuous periods.

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Why Cash is a Position

Avoiding Emotional Trading: One of the core principles of seasoned traders is to avoid emotional reactions to market fluctuations. By keeping cash when the market is unpredictable, traders avoid the psychological traps of "FOMO" (fear of missing out) or panic selling.

Clear Signals: The wise trader waits for strong technical or fundamental signals that indicate a shift in market conditions. For example, breakouts, sustained uptrends, or strong macroeconomic indicators pointing toward growth.

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Market Conditions Favoring Caution:

Global Recession: In periods of global economic slowdown, holding cash prevents unnecessary exposure to sectors under pressure from reduced demand, inflation, or tightening monetary policies.
Sector-Specific Stress: As mentioned earlier regarding oil and gas, rising energy prices can drive cost-push inflation, leading to sector-wide losses in industries heavily dependent on fuel or raw materials. In such cases, liquidity becomes more valuable as it provides flexibility for future opportunities.

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Tarot Card: The Hermit- Being a “Seasoned Seasonal Trader”

Timing the Market: A seasoned trader recognizes the cyclical nature of the stock market. There are times of feast (bull runs) and famine (bear markets). Learning to recognize these cycles and adjusting positions accordingly is the key to longevity.

Seasonal Strategies: Some traders use seasonality (historical patterns in market movements during specific months or quarters) to determine when to enter or exit positions. For example, markets often slow down in the summer, while the end of the year (holiday season) can see a surge.
Trend-Following and Cash Management: Instead of trying to predict every minor move, the seasoned trader watches for long-term trends and joins the momentum when it is clear. Cash serves as a waiting position during periods of uncertainty, which may also help avoid margin calls or forced sales during downturns.

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The Hermit: Benefits of Holding Cash in Times of Market Uncertainty

Capital Preservation: By keeping cash, the trader ensures capital is preserved for better opportunities. This is especially important when markets are volatile and unpredictable.
Flexibility for Future Opportunities: Holding cash provides the flexibility to quickly move into undervalued assets or participate in clear bull runs when they emerge.

Psychological Relief: Cash positions offer peace of mind during difficult market phases, reducing the stress associated with monitoring falling stock prices or experiencing losses. It also allows for calm and calculated decision-making when market conditions improve.

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Tarot Card: The Hermit

The Wise Hermit trader embodies patience, discipline, and a strategic focus on preservation. During times of uncertainty, when the market offers no clear direction or strong themes, keeping cash is the wisest choice. By waiting for clear buying opportunities or trends, this trader ensures they only invest when the potential for reward outweighs the risk. As Dan Zanger demonstrated, success in the market isn’t about constant trading—it’s about timing, strategy, and the wisdom to step back when needed.

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Prophecy 101 - Oil & Gas: The Unstoppable Winter War Devil

Recent Examples
In Winter 2021-2022, Brent crude oil prices surged significantly due to a combination of recovering demand and supply chain disruptions, with prices rising from around $75 to over $90 per barrel.
In Winter 2022-2023, geopolitical tensions related to the Russia-Ukraine conflict led to further increases in prices, highlighting the volatility in the oil markets during winter months.
Conclusion
To summarize, while the average increase in Brent crude oil prices during winter months typically falls within the 10%-30% range, it can vary widely based on market conditions, geopolitical events, and seasonal demand.

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Fire: Representing energy and transformation, Fire can be linked to the impact of energy prices on CPO. As energy prices rise, production and transportation costs for palm oil also increase. Additionally, fire-related issues, such as land clearing practices for palm plantations, can lead to environmental scrutiny and trade restrictions, affecting supply . Increased energy demands for processing palm oil can further drive costs up.

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Earth: This element reflects stability and resource management. Factors such as soil health, agricultural practices, and climatic conditions play a significant role in CPO production. Weather events like El Niño can adversely affect yields, leading to supply shortages and higher prices. For example, research indicates that extreme weather conditions can reduce palm oil output, contributing to market volatility .

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Wood: This element symbolizes growth and vitality. Factors contributing to the increasing demand for palm oil, such as rising consumption in food, personal care, and biofuels, align with the Wood element. As global populations grow and wealth increases, especially in developing regions like Asia and Africa, demand for edible oils, including palm oil, is expected to rise. The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) predicts a steady increase in palm oil consumption driven by food production, personal care, and biofuels .

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Wood: Represents growth, expansion, and vitality. This element aligns with sectors that involve growth and life, such as:

- Agriculture
- Forestry
- Biotechnology
- Consumer Goods
- Healthcare