To invest or speculate successfully, one must form an opinion as to what the next move of importance will be in a given stock.

Speculation is nothing more than anticipating coming movements. In order to anticipate correctly, one must have a definite basis for that anticipation.

For instance, analyze in your own mind the effect, marketwise, that a certain piece of news which has been made public may have in relation to the market. Try to anticipate the psychological effect of this particular item on the mind of the public, particularly that portion of  the public which primarily is interested.

If you believe it likely to have a definite bullish or bearish effect market-wise, don’t trust your own opinion and back your judgement until the action of the market itself confirms your opinion because the effect market-wise may not be as pronounced as you are inclined to believe it should be.