【冷眼专栏】漫漫投资路
赌博业非成长行业/冷眼
云顶（GENTING，3182，主板消费股）连中三元——政府调高赌税，美国投资失利和云顶大马（GENM，4715，主板消费股）因主题乐园纠纷起诉福斯索偿40亿令吉。
这3件大事发生在短短的一个多月，股价亦在一个多月内作三级跳——不是向上，而是向下跳。
第一级由10月10日的5令吉，下跳至4.50令吉，停留了约20天；然后作第二级跳，由11月2日的4.50令吉，下跳至3.50令吉，再停留了约20天；然后在11月杪起作第三级跳，落至3令吉以下，然后缓缓下滑；前天（本月18日）闭市价是2.83令吉。
这惊心动魄的三级跳，一方面使股东成为惊弓之鸟，不晓得会不会还有第四跳；但另一方面，也使还不是股东的散户跃跃欲试，想趁机抄底（捞底？或是炒底？）又心里怕怕，深恐抓鸡不着蚀把米，所以犹豫不决，一直希望股票分析员和评论员给他们出个主意，偏偏这两类仁兄仁姐又意见南辕北辙，莫衷一是，使这些想赚快钱的散户们，一颗心像十五个水桶——七上八下，实在烦恼。
先看行业后看企业
我在“蚱蜢和蚂蚁的故事”一文中，提出了6条散户在熊市中应遵循的行动准则，最后一条（第6条）是“先选行业，后选企业”，已为散户们提供了答案。
让我们把这些跃跃欲试的散户分为两类：
第一类是想“抄底”的投机者，他们只是想赚快钱，无意长期投资。这种做法，跟在云顶赌场没有两样，能否赢钱，多少要靠运气，跟本领站不上边。
不过，即使抄底，也最好睁大眼睛，看看有没有另一个陷阱出现。
那么，以目前3令吉以下的股价买作长期投资，又是否值得呢？
如果要作长期投资（5年以上），最先要了解的是行业的增长潜能，我在“蚱蜢与蚂蚁的故事”中所说的“先看行业，后看企业”，就是这个意思。
如果有关行业没有增长，或是处在不景气中，巧妇难为无米之炊，个别企业的股价难有特出表现，产业市场不振，产业股难有作为，就是一个典型例子。
9年来股价表现平平
云顶大马属赌博业，那么，让我们先看看整个赌博业是怎么情况。
从三家上市的赌业公司，9年来的业绩记录，（请参图表一至表三），我们其实很容易得到一个结论：赌博业不是一个增长行业。
难怪这三家公司的股票，9年来股价表现平平而已。
“增长股”是以净利的年均复增（CAGR）为准，就以云顶大马来说，2009年净利为13亿2300万令吉，到2017年时为11亿5900万令吉，年均复增不但没有上升，反而下跌1.46%。在同样的时间内，成功多多和万能的净利，分别跌了5.55%和5.0%，均比9年前逊色。
股价通常是与盈利同步起落，三家公司的盈利每况愈下，难怪股价均乏善可陈。
云顶大马的价值在赌场，赌场的价值在执照，赌场才是盈利的主要来源，至于酒店和乐园，都是辅助赌场的服务，对盈利的贡献有限。
旧的乐园其实已关闭了两、三年，以腾出土地来建主题乐园，云顶大马的盈利并未受影响，可见主题乐园并非盈利的主要来源，明乎此，则主题乐园何时投入服务，无关宏旨。
投资者在评论云顶大马股票时，切勿分不出轻重而作了错误的判断。
没增长潜能难有作为
云顶大马一路来都是垄断性企业，然而时移境迁，如今越来越多国家批准开设赌场，一向不兴开赌的日本，亦已于今年7月在国会通过发出三张赌场执照，并公开在国际招标，可以预见争取赌客的行动将日趋激烈，云顶大马能否保持昔日风光，只有时间才能证明。
成功多多和万能都是经营博彩业的，非法字票无孔不入，过去9年两公司节节败退，今后能否扭转乾坤，投资者拭目以待。
过去9年是大马股市最长的牛市，赌业股票的股价只能持稳或日走下坡，关键是没有增长。
股市菜鸟们，你们选股时，首先要问的是“此行业有增长吗？”，接着问“此股有增长潜能吗？”，如果答案是“有”，接下来才看其他因素，如果是“没有”，其他因素都可略过不看，因为一只在没有增长行业中没有增长潜能的股票，即使具备其他准则，股价也难有作为。
如果你想成为优秀的股票投资者，请在任何时候都不要忘记我在《孙子股市兵法》最后一面的以下一段文字 ：
没成长，不要买，有成长，不要卖；成长短，短持有，成长长，长持守。
明日预告：什么不景气行业不宜动，哪些潜能行业要注意？
http://www.enanyang.my/news/20181220/【漫漫投资路】赌博业非成长行业冷眼/
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Discussions
4 people like this. Showing 11 of 11 comments
bjtoto 33% profit come from hr owen uk luxury car dealer company ,
5% profit margin buisness , every year bring back 6 cents per share from uk ,
remain 67% profit come from sport toto and Philippines charity lottery
new gov crack down on illegal lottery betting and possible issue online betting license to legal operators , if it happen , it will send bjtoto price to previous high.
lottery various taxes provide a lot of income to gov , more crack down on illegal betting is a sure thing.
not everyone is as lucky as lim coock thai, born with golden spoon , but with few disposable money and extreme luck , you can get rich overnight by betting on lottery, if it happen , you can say you made it own your own and not rely on your father , like that lim coock thai... you're better than him , you can proudly say so, dream is what make life worth living
buy bjtoto for 7.5% dividend yield effortlessly , every year at least 16cents div masuk pocket, you can thanks me later
2018-12-20 13:16
it very true, if according to cold eye share filtering method.
fundamental master wont yam you all one.
2018-12-20 13:56
feel very doubtful of this MASTER>..for his jtiasa Stocks had sent so many of his followers to hell.
2018-12-20 15:56
even warren buffet has make mistake on tesco, any master has not failed b4? if the majority view is correct, he will not make this huge sum of money today
2018-12-20 16:18
GentingM 2016 net profit extremely high? why? the master didn't exclude extra ordinary items?
2018-12-20 16:32
Ten years ago, before market crash within 2007-2008, the highest share price of GENTING & GENM were RM9.05 & RM4.26 respectively. Now, huh...
2018-12-20 16:45
His stock picking is so deadly accurate until he goes to punt index warrants to find challenge..
2018-12-20 16:49
This article should be shown to GENM punters. Punters think they striked lottery from the small rebound if you read up genm forum
2018-12-21 10:15
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2018-12-20 13:01