gloveharicut
Sensitivity analysis - US custom's detention order on TOPLGOV by CIMB
gloveharicut
Publish date: Thu, 16 Jul 2020, 04:06 PM
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I am reproducing this message from a telegram group to my blog.
Based on back-of-envelope calculations using our model, a two week ban to the US will result in a impact on TOPG's revenue and net profit of RM62.7m and Rm12.7m respectively. This is about 0.9% of our FY20 revenue forecast and 0.8% of our FY20 net profit forecast. This is assuming the gloves are not sold elsewhere and is considered a total loss of revenue (this is unlikely the case)
Sensitivity analysis: Every week this ban is enforced, will impact TOPG's revenue and net profit by 0.46% and 0.4% respectively. This is assuming net profit margin stays the same and the gloves are not sold elsewhere.
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Discussions
Be the first to like this. Showing 4 of 4 comments
Please talk with some sense la... the gloves can easily direct to other market
2020-07-16 18:39
If usa govt willing & confident to kacau topgloves the world biggest producer, that means there are excess supply of gloves in the world mah...!!
So becareful, better sell & hedge your bet with dpharma loh...!!
2020-07-16 18:40
dpharma can only produce cheap chinese vaccines, no much profit there!
2020-07-17 08:46
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fightingdragons
Following the meteoric rise in its monthly sales orders, the world’s largest glove manufacturer said its lead time had increased from 40 days to around 400 days, whereby orders placed now would only be delivered over a year later.
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400 days! Just need to redirect the gloves to non-US customers in the 400 days waiting list and then resolve the US issue in a few weeks. No impact in a shortage situation with a diversified customer base (26% in north america)
2020-07-16 17:10