荷兰客栈

RGB -- 初生之犊转换变为稳重青年的成长故事

荷兰客栈
Publish date: Tue, 11 Oct 2016, 03:38 PM
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股价 – RM0.185 
股数 -- 1.319bil shares

 

业务：
1） 代理销售各大名牌（主要aristocrat & shuffle master)老虎机 （2015 – 1300units）– gross profit margin ~10%
2） 出租老虎机置放在club house/casino, 收取固定租金或profit sharing (37 outlets, 6460 units – 2015) -- gross profit margin ~60%
 
历史：
1） 2008年之前的鼎盛时期，公司主力市场都放在柬埔寨的各地俱乐部，盈利曾经去到接近40mil和股价60分。当时的RGB犹如一只初生之犊，野心勃勃的追求快速成长。结果当时公司借贷了过亿来扩充老虎机出租生意。当时的柬埔寨，很多地方老虎机不太受政府管制。之后柬埔寨换新政府后突然禁止老虎机在俱乐部的经营，结果导致他们收入大跌。靠大笔借贷买来的老虎机突然闲置，失去收入的同时又要承受高折旧和大笔利息支出，就这样把公司打入了深渊，承受了三年严重亏损。
2） 幸好，这只小牛死不去，还重新爬起再成长。之后公司转移阵地，把机器搬到菲律宾和一些金三角地区。目前主力都在菲律宾。有了前车之鉴，公司在菲律宾的生意合作对象都是有菲律宾政府支持的。有了这一层保护网，公司的投资比较有保障。另外，现在的RGB也不再像十年前那般过度举债来扩充生意拼成长，反而是一步步稳打稳扎的利用手上资源去扩充。
 
买点：
1） 公司近几年的operating cash flow都基本超过50mil.每年现金流平均会拿两千多万来投资新老虎机来出租，还债千多万。
2） 今年五月，公司提前清掉一笔千多万（7% interest）的commercial paper.目前总贷款只剩7mil, 而手上现金已经去到78mil。就是说公司从net debt过亿，短短几年就变成net cash 70mil。
3） 2017开始，公司已经没有债务需要偿还，而据公司透露目前计划每年的capex还是会保持大概20mil.就是说每年会有剩余30mil以上的净现金流。公司目前没有设立任何dividend policy.但管理层透露如果有多余的钱，他们会考虑增加派息。以目前的现金流，绝对有能力派发一分以上股息（1分=13mil）
4） 贷款没了，现金多了，之前每个季度需要付的百万利息，现在可以省下，存款利息收入也会增加一点。
5） 目前老虎机出租收入平均每个月7.6mil, up from 2015 7mil. 
6） 代理销售方面，2016上半年拿到700架机总共80mil订单，delivered了500架（recognized revenue 68mil）。其余200架会在Q3交货。直到八月头为止，又多拿到400架总值45mil订单。就是说公司手上还没交货的订单有600 units -- ~57mil (gross profit 5.7mil). 公司目前也在积极争取多至少300架订单以便超越去年的总订单。 
7） 他今年刚在nepal开拓到新的出租市场，机器正在运过去，Q4会开始营业。
8） 据管理层回复，今年新增加的出租老虎机是250台。这些都是可以增加recurring income的重要收入。
9） 他刚拿到aristocrat（澳洲名牌）在laos和gao的独家代理权和shuffle master在新加坡的分销权。据知也已带来了一些生意。
10） 老板正在开发南美洲和东欧的SSM市场。
11） 老板去年公开说要在2018/19前把公司盈利和股价带回到2008前的高峰，目前的前进脚步也很正面
12） Mr Cool也在去年成为了其中一个大股东。
 
风险
1. 公司销售市场主要在菲律宾和其他一些东南亚地区，而机器售价和拿货都是以美元记价。美元的大幅波动可能会对短期业绩制造一些额外的forex loss. 美元如果起太厉害，也可能会对他们销售量或profit margin有一些影响。
2. 老虎机出租收入主要是Thai Bath和Philippines Peso.这两国对马币的变动也会影响收租的盈利。
3. 突然历史重演，出现老虎机被禁止营业的现象。（不过短期可能性不大）

RGB (0037)
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Choobee Q3’16成绩单

Created by 荷兰客栈 | Dec 04, 2016

Discussions
2 people like this. Showing 50 of 51 comments

Benjamin_8888

Lol

2016-10-11 16:01

CharlesT

I3 is a place full of fun...welcome

2016-10-11 16:05

paperplane2016

Cash from Operation 60,000.00
Share Outstanding 1,328,906.00 0.05
24.4%

2016-10-11 16:07

荷兰客栈

Goreng is good, share market is loosing steam lately..

2016-10-11 16:17

CharlesT

C whether project 1 fm investalk buddy can work or not

2016-10-11 16:19

mesoon

cash flow growing company

2016-10-11 16:31

荷兰客栈

ops, 50% is big project. Look like dudu have to work harder a bit...

2016-10-11 16:33

CharlesT

Haha, maybe discount a bit....20-30% will do for this very first project...kampate

2016-10-11 16:33

dudu

Apa project? 荷兰客栈is siapa here？

2016-10-11 16:37

CharlesT

Lol

2016-10-11 16:42

gogogoplz

荷兰客栈 is another big big la

2016-10-11 16:44

dudu

I know wo, is KYY kah?

2016-10-11 16:48

gogogoplz

but ya lo who is 荷兰客栈 here

2016-10-11 16:49

gogogoplz

not kyy la, i see the format of the statistic and i think i know who is he!

2016-10-11 16:53

荷兰客栈

20-30% should be reachable target if next Q eps exceeding 0.7 Sen. Let's pray hard for it... haha

2016-10-11 16:57

荷兰客栈

I'm 荷兰客 from 荷兰客栈 :)

2016-10-11 16:59

gogogoplz

hihi nice to meet you 荷兰客, i will study this company thoroughly, hope to learn 20% kung fu from you, that will be far enough for me

2016-10-11 17:01

everyonecan

woah, everyone is migrating to i3, can follow back sifu sifu cari makan

2016-10-11 17:03

gogogoplz

missed the chance to interact with you this year, very tulan, hope to join you all in jb next year!

2016-10-11 17:03

荷兰客栈

gogogoplz, nice to meet you here. :)

2016-10-11 17:19

dudu

荷兰客 too many of them lah....don't know which one. I only know 荷兰船长。。

2016-10-11 17:26

paperplane2016

go horland liao

2016-10-11 17:48

gogogoplz

Oh, for me they have very good reputation, if i can learn 10-20% from any one of them, then i sibek shiok liao

2016-10-11 17:57

gogogoplz

dudu, for me you all are really 传说中的存在 haha

2016-10-11 17:58

dudu

Gogogo,you also can achive 荷兰客 level one day....

2016-10-11 18:45

Ricky Yeo

so after so much discussion, what's the intrinsic value of RGB?

2016-10-11 18:50

gogogoplz

thank you dudu big big, im working hard on it!

2016-10-11 19:12

Benz10

This counter will start catching eye balls with 2 well know sifu's recommendation..

2016-10-11 19:56

sakurakid4

not bad ah,sharing a bunch of facts,thanks

2016-10-11 20:06

i3gambler

For small cap company, need to check integrity of the major shareholders/directors.

2016-10-11 21:06

Intelligent Investor

Figures look good. But, don't you think online gambling is just within a click in the IT era.

2016-10-11 21:37

paperplane2016

Online gambling can't fight real gambling. U gamble not

2016-10-11 21:42

shafie

gamble with gambling machine operator

2016-10-11 21:46

Intelligent Investor

I am not.

By knowing the technologies are transforming or disrupting several industries, I am not sure gambling will be spare?

Please kindly share your view and enlighten me.

2016-10-11 23:00

gogogoplz

hi intelligent investor, have you been to any of the casino before? you can know the difference between online gambling and casino once you step into the casino, i think.

2016-10-12 08:17

angelol

Dangerous stock, NTA 0.13 with price to book of 1.42 times. Economy downturn may hit the prospect. Dueterte whack on drug, now smoking also whack, next maybe gambling also. High risk.

2016-10-12 16:25

i4investor

why u must have RGB now, read this before too late for you to enter, or u should buy back if u already let go............

http://aimthebull.blogspot.my/search/label/RGB

2016-10-12 17:13

paperplane2016

Casino and prostitute oldest industry. So far they survive over thousand yrs

2016-10-12 20:58

Benjamin_8888

I edy let go at 0.18 - 0.185, need bullet, will buy back later, no regret

2016-10-12 21:07

VenFx

Hope the management have better use for their Big Cash Cow in another 2 yrs.

2016-10-13 02:29

iloveshare128

based on 2015 figures: EV=199.23M, EBIT=25.111M, EV/EBIT=7.93 which is considered fair value only... there is no margin of safety buying at this price... P/BV=1.48... also shows that it is not cheap...

2016-10-13 13:01

iloveshare128

Ricky Yeo, agree with what I said above? or can you share what is your calculation of its intrinsic value? thanks...

2016-10-13 13:06

iloveshare128

too much goreng smell in this counter (and more importantly, it has no margin of safety!) so I would suggest stay away from it...

2016-10-13 13:06

kai8994

iloveshare, try value it using DCF and you will get different result.

2016-10-13 15:25

iloveshare128

kai, i normally do not use DCF model to count the intrinsic value... haha...

2016-10-13 15:40

kai8994

Indeed from earning point of view RGB doesnt appear to be undervalued. But its ability of churning good cash flow make it quite attractive to me :)

2016-10-13 16:38

VenFx

Show start from 2017-2018 .

2016-10-15 00:17

paperplane2016

Shld focus more on cash flows! Earnings can be manipulated! Like how keen hide their great cashflows! Also how other companies hiding their great wealth under the sun!

2016-10-15 00:22

maomaochong

paperplane is absolutely right :)

2016-10-15 07:43

iloveshare128

paparplane and kai sifus, the reason why i do not like to use DCF model is that there are too many assumptions we need to make..such as what is the growth rate, discount rate that you want to use... we must be very careful in assumptions, else garbage in, garbage out...

2016-10-17 14:42

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