Icon8888 Gossips About Stocks
(Icon) Hengyuan Refining (4) - Upgrade To "Sailang"
When I first wrote about Hengyuan on 12 July 2017, I was also not so sure. But subsequent to that article, many positive development have unfolded.
From a slightly positive attitude, I have now turned very bullish on this stock.
(a) Crack Spread In Very Bullish Territory, Touching USD10.22 Yesterday
Please refer to diagram below, which is self explanatory.
(b) Royal Dutch Shell Unveiled Fantastic Earning Yesterday, MOSTLY Due To Strong Refining Profitability
(c) Crack Spread Is Expectd To Remain Strong Going Into Second Half of 2017
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Discussions
10 people like this. Showing 50 of 55 comments
Posted by stockraider > Jul 28, 2017 12:35 PM | Report Abuse X
Mr Ooi Teik Bee’s recommendation:
If you are a subscriber, you should have received Mr Ooi Teik Bee’s recommendation of Hengyuan with a target price of Rm 15.93.
WHY IN THIS THREAD OOI TEIK BEE SAYS TP RM 9.00...SUBSCRIBER SAY RM 15.93 LEH ??
paperplane2016
11996 posts
Posted by paperplane2016 > Jul 28, 2017 12:37 PM | Report Abuse
highest VOLUME! and going UP! super BULL coming
2017-07-28 12:41
Raider already says forget about mumbo jumbo....pullback etc....go for the big big gain..mah...!!
Good stock n opportunity don come often loh....!!
Yes...u can sell...on pullback....but u will missed the ultimate pot of gold loh....!!
Great monies are make from sitting still loh....!!
2017-07-28 12:43
Sialang is new term
It is sailang using margin line capital just like Hng33
:D
2017-07-28 12:52
OTB said 9 first. He is conservative here in open public I guess. He don't want to be blamed by some idiots. as KYY said it well. hehe
2017-07-28 12:57
tht one siao lang, not sialang
sia=prawn, or blind
lang=wave
either prawn wave or blind wave, you decide/
2017-07-28 12:59
2017年2月份=PETRONM=5.35=保留
2017年2月份=YSPSAP=2.18=已卖出,(賺)
2017年3月份=KIMHIN=1.97=已卖出,(亏)
2017年3月份=PPHB=0.98=已卖出,(賺)
2017年3月份=CHEEWAH=1.56=已卖出,(亏)
2017年3月份=JFTECH=0.565=已卖出,(賺)
2017年5月份=HENRYUAN=5.60=保留
2017年6月份=NETX=0.06=保留
2017年6月份=GHLSYS=1.46=保留
2017年6月份=JAYCORP=1.40=保留,吃股息股.已拿到5分股息.
2017年6月份=MALAKOF=1.06=保留,老人股,只适合有耐心
koko8888 also buy. No one is SELLING! MEANS all BUYING!
BUy and buy and buy will cause it ROCKET UP VERY FAST LOH
2017-07-28 13:01
he buy little I guess, all these his small positions
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/koko888/
2017-07-28 13:07
see? PetronM still holding, 60% gain now; same to Hengyuan buy at 5.60, 20% gain
NETX me bought almost same price, losing money.
2017-07-28 13:09
JN88...i think you have a very valid point - seriously.
One should really look into this.
As the singapore crack spread is based on dollar...and those days RM is way stronger than what it was now - suppressing the phenomenal performance of HRC we are seeing currently.
2017-07-28 23:18
I taught KYY previously mention to avoid O&G counter, now he change his mind.
2017-07-29 13:14
Wah..many sailang to power up HRC
What happen when no more sailang power?
2017-07-29 13:19
The question of too hot ?
The answer come from Newton Law of Momentum loh....!!
Read the scientific law...u will understand why HRC big bull run cannot be stop for a long time loh....!!
2017-07-29 13:24
Rapidinvest sifu, that fella tok for his own advantage la. Laf die me so thick skin, every time can eat back his word....golden rule...kakaka
2017-07-29 15:08
Sky is the the limit but I would rather take cautious as Sifu use to say dön't chase when share aldy high.
2017-07-30 10:30
Lets look at Aseng point of view;
1. He has some exposure on Petron and wants everyone switch from HRC to Petron to support him
2. He sold his small position at around Rm 7.00 and he hope to buy back cheap at Rm 6.50.
Yes petron a good stock in fact raider has some position too , the tp is Rm 14.00, but raider tp on hrc is even more terror at Rm 22.00.
Why ? Simply HRC better earnings and better undervalue mah...!!
Aseng dream of buying back hrc cheap is gone loh...!!
HRC is already at the explosive share run up stage loh;
1. All the refinery stocks worlwide showed explosive cracking margin, Hrc historically earn better margin will even do better loh...!!
2. The 2nd Qtr result of HRC to be announced will be very very good mah...due to worldwide explosive refining cracking margin loh..!! U just need to wait within 4 wks....the result will be super fantastic loh...!! There is no stopping for HRC share price mah...!!
Thats why we all shout hold your horses mah...Icon, paperlane, probability all with good hearts sifu shout hang on to your HRC stock loh..!!
3. Great buying sifu like KYY just jump in mah....!! Also OTB with few hundreds of rich followers are jumping in too loh...!!
Beside many funds already took notice of HRC, as it being the BEST Performing STOCK GAIN WEEKLY for this week mah....!! So u can see huge buying power..but quietly ask yourself where is the supply leh ?
4. Petron investment on new plant with additional 60k bpd will cost rm 6.4 billion loh..!! This mean HRC refinery very valuable...new will cost Rm 12.8 billion...but bcos it is used we discount 50%....that means it is worth Rm 6.4 billion or Rm 22.00 per share loh...!!
5. The expected jumped in EPS pa based on OTB and KYY forecast is Rm 3.25...u can imagine PE 6x....what is HRC share price leh ?
6. in 2005 12yrs ago HRC share price already hit rm 12.30 loh..!! Given inflation and cost of holding say 8%....u should expect HRC to hit Rm 24.60....but HRC only Rm 6.90 PE 3x only mah..!!
2017-07-30 11:00
WHAT SORT OF RUBBISH THIS ASENG TALKING ABOUT LOH ?
RAIDER DON LIKE LOH...GIVE HIM GENUINE GOOD HEART, HE TALK BAD ON US LOH...!! WE SHARE THE BOUNTY HRC HARVEST...HE CALL US CONMAN LOH..!!
Why all those sailang kaki twist and turn , persuade you to sailang . This no doubt a one in a life time opportunity for them to take all the money from your pocket.ICON SAILANG CALL IS GOOD...AND RIGHT TIMING TOO..THERE IS 2 BIG BUYER JUST JUMP IN OTB AND KYY MAH..!!
I can see fear in their comment when I expose what is deep in their heart one by one...They see the roasted duck fly away.......start attacking me. WHY SHOULD WE FEAR ? WE ONLY FEAR AND REGRET, WE HAVE NOT SPREAD GOOD NEWS TO MANY I3 PEOPLE, SO THAT THEY ARE ABLE TO PARTICIPATE. BCOS DUE FEAR PREVENTED THEM LOH..!!
PE 3X MAH!! SUPER GOOD & UNDERVALUE LOH...!!
What wrong Aseng advice you not to sailang , always invest with an amount you can afford to lose . Do not be greedy , do not believe their high TP ,do not be misled by high earning but they can't even able to answer sosfinance sifu simple question of cash flow . Some even more funny , say they can sell their inventory... refinery plant selling crude oil.. crazy. ..NOT WRONG LOH TO MODERATE.!! BUT THE WRONG IS ASENG BAD MOUTHED HRC AFTER SELLING OFF HRC AT RM 7.00 LOH..!! AND ON THE FUTURE 5 YRS CASHFLOW..NO ONE CAN ANSWER MAH...EVEN INSIDER CAN'T LOH..!! BUT RAIDER HAS GIVEN HINT HOW TO OVERCOME MAH..!! DON EXPECT PEOPLE.. EVERYDAY SPOON FEED U LOH...!!
So they twist and turn , shouting and jumping .....
So worry you believe aseng and they can't make a big and fast money with the opportunity right in front.! PEOPLE GOOD HEART.. HOPE ASENG CAN MAKE GOOD MONIES...BUT IF ASENG FEEL OTHERWISE..NO ONE WILL USE A GUN AND POINT AT U LOH...!! BUT PLEASE DO NOT BAD MOUTHED HRC...U R SPOILING OTHERS FROM THIS G0LDEN OPPORTUNITY LOH...!!
THE TRUTH OF HRC GREAT SUCCESS WILL BE REVEALED NEXT 2 TO 4 WKS LOH..!!
IF U BELIEVE U BUY & HOLD AND BIG GAIN FOR U LOH...!!
IF U DON BELIEVE...U JUST WATCH OR IGNORE MAH...!!
DON PUT IN PERSONAL ATTACK BCOS IT IS HURTFUL TO THE GOOD SAMITARIAN..BCOS THEY GIVEN THE BEST EFFORT FOR ALL US TO BENEFIT LOH.!!THIS IS ONE BEST COLLECTIVE GOOD EFFORT MAH.
2017-07-30 11:01
NTA is abt Rm4.30, now selling at Rm 6.90 still undervalue meh ? Anyway share moves becos of supply n demand. With 2 big kaki involved ,any price is possible but only for short term only.
2017-07-30 12:07
all sifus buying,who is selling? why still got sellers? if everyone buying sure limit up already but why not? maybe someone been diam diam selling?
2017-07-30 16:02
Royal Dutch Shell and ExxonMobil reported their Q2 1 day and 3 days ago. Stated profits jumped due to higher refinery margins during the period. Should be good for HENGYUAN.
2017-07-30 16:25
28 July 2017, Irving, Texas — Exxon Mobil Corporation on Friday July 28th, 2017 announced estimated second quarter 2017 earnings of $3.4 billion, or $0.78 per diluted share, compared with $1.7 billion a year earlier, as oil and gas realizations increased and refining margins improved.
2017-07-30 16:25
Royal Dutch Shell: Higher contributions from downstream (the refining of petroleum crude oil) driven by improved operational performance and stronger chemicals and refining industry conditions were one of the main reasons for the firm's performance.
2017-07-30 16:25
Share don't go up like roket,inbetween got airpocket in the form of correction n consolidation. U buy now u could be buying at near peak. A check at the Ar2016. I found heavy debt amt to Rm 2B n negative cash flow. No cash flow no dividend.So think carefully before putting your hard earn money.
2017-07-30 16:58
hi all sifus out there, i have commented on blog regard full potential of heng yuan, welcome your all advise so that i can improve my skill in stock analysis
2017-07-30 21:45
the inventory avg 30 to 40days (page59 AR2016) say 36days, the stock lost will double to 82.5M.
on 21 june 2017, USD 10m or rm43M paid to the new term loan 200M taken dec16 (p13 Q1'17)
if draw a USD$8.25 line to the crack spread chart, it is appopriate, i would not said it is a conservative assumption
assume operating cost & financing cost (for old loan) same as Q1, add in the additional stock lost and finance cost mentioned above the eps for Q2 is 39sen
2017-07-30 22:18
https://www.quandl.com/data/CHRIS/CME_1NB1-Singapore-Mogas-92-Unleaded-Platts-Brent-Crack-Spread-Futures-Continuous-Contract-1-1NB1-Front-Month
from above chart, year 2015 crack spread higher than year 2016, and is higher than 2017 first half, so the net profit for 2017 may not be so high as forcast
i still figure why Q3 2016 earning is negative, will post when have time and get it
2017-07-31 06:24
Hengyuan had excellent last two QRs, now the crack spread breaks new high, will have high profit soon! Good to buy!
2017-07-31 06:28
higher crack is Q2 2015 is USD18, go read the chart, now the crack no way near there yet
2017-07-31 06:38
YLR is typical over-think investor type, keep research research and study and ended up find all the weaknesses of the company (no company is perfect). Most importantly they NEVER invest in company due to overthink. So that they can't make money too. Hengyuan PE @ 4x. Pls go study Asian refiners, who have this kind of low PE.
YLR do ur homework la don keep waiting to spoon feed, Q3 2016, the crack spread was keep slumping down that period, after that recovered so that profits were excellent, and now the crack spread breaks new high.
Break RM7.6 today, without YLR! ON YEAH.
2017-07-31 06:43
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stockraider
WHY RAIDER SAYS HRC RM 22.00 NOT FAR FETCHED LEH ??
1. KYY SAYS HRC EPS RM 3.25, OTB SAYS RM 2.00 LOH...!!
IF RM 22.00....WE ARE SAYING PE 6.8X TO 11X LOH...!!
PET DAG PE 24X MAH....!!
2. PETROCHEM COMPANIES;
PETCHEM RM 6.94 MKT CAP RM 56 BILLION PE 14X
PET DAG RM 23.74 MKT CAP 23.54 BILLION PE 24X
LCTITAN RM 6.11 MKT CAP RM 14.1 BILLION PE 14X
HRC TARGET RM 22.00 MKCAP RM 6.6 BILLION PE 6.8X TO 11X.
SEE HRC AT RM 22.00 MKT CAP ONLY RM 6.6 BILLION PE STILL BELOW 10X...FAR OVERALL BELOW PETROL CHEM IND....OF AROUND 14X LOH...!!
HRC AT RM 22.00 HAS THE LOWEST MKT CAP IF U COMPARE TO PETROLEUM INDUSTRY LOH...!!
WHY MUST HRC MAKE MORE BUT TRADE FAR BELOW IND VALUATION LEH ??
Alex Foo
2791 posts
Posted by Alex Foo > Jul 28, 2017 11:32 A
2017-07-28 12:39