kcchongnz blog
My personal experience in value investing? kcchongnz
In the article below, I have explained what is value investing in the context of a value investor as below.
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/98599.jsp
I cited what Charles Munger have said, that,
“All intelligent investing is value investing - acquiring more than you are paying for. You must value the business in order to value the stock.”
This guy below has been harping on the statement as below,
Posted by stockmanmy > Jun 19, 2016 06:21 PM | Report Abuse 
classical value stock.....WTK go buy la.
NTA > $ 3
price $1......
hahahaha
While buying stock below its cash position, or its NTA may be one of the many value investing strategies, he only knows one, that value investing is buying stock less than NTA.
What a big deviation of what Munger said. Instead, this gentleman below knows much more than him what value investing is about.
Posted by odie88 > Jun 19, 2016 06:57 PM | Report Abuse
stockmanmy, buying stocks with prices a lot lesser than NTA is not all value investing is about. NTA is not equal to intrinsic value.
The same guy mutters again about growth stocks and value stocks as below:
Posted by stockmanmy > Jun 19, 2016 06:18 PM | Report Abuse
growth stocks vs value stocks.
growth stocks tend to go higher and higher, breaking new high all the time.
value stocks tend to go lower and lower and discounts getting wider and wider.....hahahahaha
I want to ask him again; on what basis you are saying so? Any statistical significant evidence? What about his experience? Can show us your success on that?
Again I cannot help to say the same guy below has much better understanding than him about investing.
Posted by odie88 > Jun 19, 2016 07:38 PM | Report Abuse
stockmanmy, not entirely true since growth is one of the aspect in value investing. I could conclude your "growth investing" part of value investing too. I am pretty sure there's a price you would pay a company nor matter how good the company prospect is. By paying not more than what you value is value investing.
I have in the previous article show numerous academic research showing the various value investing strategies have worked as compiled in the book “What has worked in investing” by Tweedy, Browne Company LLC (TBC), a well-established investment advisory group in the US managing approximately $21.4 billion for individuals, institutions, partnerships, off-shore funds and four mutual funds as of September 30, 2014. It is a collection of about 50 studies of value investment approaches used in the US and the world, including Malaysia, for many decades. Each of the studies evaluates the results of following a particular value-oriented strategy in a particular market over a particular period.
In the previous article, I have also shown the track records of each of nine disciples of the Master of Fundamental Value Investing, Benjamin Graham, who had generated annual compounded returns (CAR) of between 18% and 29% over track records lasting between 13 to 28 years.
Other super investors such as Joel Greenblatt, Seth Klarmen, Howard Marks, Mohnish Pabrai, Peter Lynch and many other fundamental value investing fund managers have all generated high return of over 20% CAR over an extended period of time of 20 years or more, purely using value investing.
Value investing is a long-term endeavour. It is not like what this fellow is talking about as below.
Posted by leno > Jun 21, 2016 09:40 AM | Report Abuse
Stock manny ... name one wat-fak-growth stock and KC CHong to name one wat-fak-value stock TODAY ... and we see the result by end of june THIS year 2016 ... meaning about 10 days to go. See who win than can tok more kok.
Value investing is not about punting on one stock and guarantees to produce results in 10 days. Value investors can, and often, under-perform in the short term. But in the mid and long term, they generally will be doing fine as what Joel Greenblatt says below.
“I just want to take advantage of prices away from value. If you do good valuation work and you are right, Mr. Market will pay you back. In the short term, one to two years, the market is inefficient. But in the long-term, the market has to get it right—it will pay you back in two to three years. Keep that in mind when you do your analysis. You don’t have to look at the next quarter, the next six months, if you do good valuation work—Mr. Market will pay you.”
So instead of naming you a stock and hope to show result in 10 days, I will show you my experience of value investing in Malaysia with the consistent extra-ordinary return and low risk in the mid-term.
Sorry, this is a repetition of what I have written before for a few times, done to prove the point.
My portfolio returns using fundamental value investing
Tan Kian Wei, one of the major contributors in i3investor has put up two official portfolios of mine in i3investor in 2013 which have reasonably long duration, one in January 2013 as “GE 13 Watch – kcchongnz”, and the other on August 1 2013 named “Stock Pick Challenge 2013 2H – kcchongnz”. They can be viewed from these links below.
http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/13147.jsp
http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/19386.jsp
I have provided detail analysis on the stocks chosen and their investment thesis in i3investor following the links above. by the way, there weren't these"20 accounting formula, 5 valuation methods" as always muttered by that fellow.
Return of GE13 Watch
Table 1 in the Appendix shows the performance of the stocks and the portfolio for the 3 years and 5 months’ investment period for “GE13 Watch” as at to date, a reasonably long period.
During this period, the average return of the portfolio of ten stocks is 110.6%, widely out-performed the gain of the broad market KLCI of just 0.4% and the SmallCap Index of 24.3%.
9 out of 10 stocks in the portfolio have positive total returns which varies from 0.6% for Plenitude to 328% for Prestariang. There is only one stock which loses money, Pantech of just -13.3%, showing the low risk of following this value investing strategy.
The total return is equivalent to a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 24.1%. RM100000 invested less than three years ago has grown to RM210600, more than double that of invested in the broad market.
Four out of the ten stocks have triple digits return; Prestariang at 328%, SKP Resources at 300%, Pintaras at 192%, and NTPM 108.3%. This is the result of a very basic principle of value investing, that is,
“Take care of the downside, the upside will take care of itself”
Return of Stock Pick Challenge 2013 2H
Table 2 in the Appendix shows the performance of the stocks and the portfolio for the 2 years and 11 months’ investment period for “Stock Pick Challenge 2013 2H”.
During this period, the broad market dropped about 8%. However, all eleven stocks out-performed the broad market with ten of the stocks, or 91% of the stocks in the portfolio have positive total returns. The average return of the portfolio is 96%, beating the broad market by 114%.
Two stocks have triple digits return; Datasonic at 461%, and Homeritz at 342.5%.
Again it has demonstrated that value investing has yielded superb return, and more importantly, with very low risk as again evidenced from the minimal losses of just one stock.
Return of Dividend Investing Strategy
Recently at the end of last year, I have switched to another value investing strategy, a divided yield strategy as described in the link below.
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/92727.jsp
Since the beginning of this year, the broad KLCI has dropped by 3.5% from 1698 to 1638. However, many smaller capitalized stocks, especially the hot export stocks have dropped by more than 20%, some even more than 30%.
As on 20th June 2016 today, the portfolio of 5 stocks return an average of 29% as shown in Table 3 in the Appendix. There is not a single loser in the five-stocks portfolio. That means not only the portfolio way out-performed the broad market, every single stock does so.
Those stocks were chosen again with the very first basic principle of value investing with safety first in mind with the motto of:
"Take care of the downside, and the upside will take care of itself."
Conclusions
It has shown all three portfolios of stocks in Bursa selected using various value investing strategies outperformed the broad market by a very wide margin, in the mid-term as well as in the short-term. The consistency in the superb performances implies they are unlikely as a result of luck. This is also in consistent with the good performances and proven records of the fundamental value super investors as described in my previous article.
Hence following the principles and methodologies of value investing does appear to have a higher probability of building long-term wealth in the stock market. The key word is traceability, plausibility, consistency, stress free, low risks, and etc.
I do agree there are other methods which can also provide extra-ordinary return from investing in the stock market. For me, I always believe value investing is a better way to do, no qualm about it. And I would like to propagate this value investing to the younger generation and the public to build wealth slowly but surely in the long term.
If you are interested to learn about this value investing for a small fee, please contact me at
K C Chong
Appendix
Table 1: GE13 Watch Performance
| Column | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
| Date | 21/1/2013 | 21/6/2016 | ||||||||
| Stock Name | Code | Ref Price | Adj. Price | Price now | Gain | % gain | CY=FCF/MC | ROIC | EV/EBIT | EY |
| Kfima | 6491 | 2.02 | 1.67 | 1.85 | 0.180 | 10.8% | 14.0% | 25.7% | 3.6 | 27.9% |
| Pintaras | 9598 | 3.12 | 1.18 | 3.45 | 2.270 | 192% | 6.7% | 29.3% | 2.4 | 42.0% |
| ECS | 5162 | 1.06 | 0.89 | 1.51 | 0.620 | 69.7% | 17.8% | 25.1% | 3.6 | 28.0% |
| Plenitude | 5075 | 1.85 | 1.68 | 1.69 | 0.010 | 0.6% | 16.0% | 12.9% | 2.4 | 41.8% |
| Jobstreest | *0058 | 2.4 | 1.06 | 1.80 | 0.740 | 70% | 6.4% | High | OK | OK |
| Pantech | 5125 | 0.78 | 0.64 | 0.56 | -0.085 | -13.3% | - | 9.1% | 8.3 | 12.1% |
| SKPRes | 7155 | 0.34 | 0.31 | 1.240 | 0.930 | 300.0% | 8.5% | 33.0% | 2.9 | 33.9% |
| NTPM | 5066 | 0.47 | 0.42 | 0.875 | 0.455 | 108.3% | 4.5% | 12.4% | 10.2 | 9.8% |
| Kimlun | 5171 | 1.50 | 1.29 | 1.80 | 0.515 | 40.1% | - | 22.8% | 7.2 | 14.0% |
| Prestariang | 5204 | 1.21 | 0.47 | 2.01 | 1.540 | 328% | 8.6% | 150.0% | 5.6 | 17.9% |
| Average | xxx | xxx | xxx | xxx | xxx | 110.6% | 118.8 | xxx | xxx | xxx |
| Median | xxx | xxx | xxx | xxx | xxx | 69.7% | xxx | xxx | xxx | |
| KLSE | KLCI | 1631 | 1631 | 1638 | 7 | 0.4% | xxx | xxx | xxx | |
| FTSE Bursa | Small cap | 12126 | 12126 | 15072 | 2946 | 24.3% | xxx | xxx | xxx |
Table 2: Stock Pick Challenge 2013 2H – kcchongnz
Table 3: Dividend yield investing strategy for 2016
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Discussions
6 people like this. Showing 36 of 36 comments
Hi KC, I have no doubt on the value investment approach with regard to invest in good FA stock with bargain or discount. However, holding a portfolio for a very long period of time may not be consistently increase the return Year on Year. Your portfolio may return 300% in 2015 but this year the portfolio return may be reduced to 200% which means this year your net return is -ve 100%. So comparing the buying price vs. the current price is not a good measurement if the same portfolio is not able to generate compounded profit Year on Year.
I do understand that in value investment, we only sell when the price is > intrinsic value but in reality not all stock will achieve the target price due to whatever reason such as we may over estimate or due to market sentiment turn bearish. So just wonder how you manage your portfolio in this case to achieve the compounded year on year profit.
2016-06-21 22:44
Why no mention how Coastal Contract perform? Recommended at RM 3.27 today only RM 1.52 or loss of 53.5%.
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/70035.jsp
2016-06-21 22:55
Posted by donfollowblindly > Jun 21, 2016 10:55 PM | Report Abuse
Why no mention how Coastal Contract perform? Recommended at RM 3.27 today only RM 1.52 or loss of 53.5%.
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/70035.jsp
Coastal is definitely one of my stock picks along the years. It did has its price dropped badly. I still have a few more which lost money. However, they were all not meant to be in the three portfolios posted.
The first two portfolios were (officially)posted way before that and it was by a third party, Tan KW. The last one was just the recent one; not supposed to be in a portfolio too, but just a summary of my write-up end of last year.
I am amazed you never follow me to buy any stock in these three portfolios which made big money. Instead you followed me blindly to buy a few, and so surprisingly, all are losing stocks.
What big sin have you committed that you were published like that?
2016-06-21 23:42
Posted by Jeffbkt > Jun 21, 2016 10:44 PM | Report Abuse
holding a portfolio for a very long period of time may not be consistently increase the return Year on Year. Your portfolio may return 300% in 2015 but this year the portfolio return may be reduced to 200% which means this year your net return is -ve 100%. So comparing the buying price vs. the current price is not a good measurement if the same portfolio is not able to generate compounded profit Year on Year.
What makes you think as such? I do know most people reshuffling their portfolios frequently but the results were not good compared with if they just stay put with their stocks. Investing doesn't mean there must be constant actions.
BTW, the portfolios were put up to show others, may be not you, that value investing for long term works.
2016-06-21 23:48
it is always great to learn from the experiences of long term value investors, thanks.
one question I always have though is - if value investing really is what all its touted to be - how come still very, very, very few people in the world are successful with it?
It is surely not that hard to learn value investing with all the books and articles out there, the principles and calculations are generally simple, but why are not more people using it, or more importantly become successful with it?
Anybody has any theory?
2016-06-22 11:16
Raider says value investment is more towards contraian investment...by right if everyone embrace value investment....then likely they will not many value buys loh....!!
that's is the reason why people like kc keep touting value investment, people that heed his call is not that high mah...!!
Actually value investment adopters are minorities loh...!!
2016-06-22 11:21
HI Kc
Hope all is well. The table 1 under appendix is showing the divvy 16 portfolio instead of GE watch 13.
Thanks for another great article - as always :)
2016-06-22 11:44
I must also add.... that the reason for the erratic price fluctuations are because of investors calculation of the IV changes as per the recent events - qtrly results...macro..and micro business factors...and we cannot say for sure they are making a mistake in their calculations / pricing.
So...the only opportunity/edge is from the 'intelligence + knowledge level' one has over the other in accurately determining the IV.
All those historical studies from KC..perhaps indicate that people tend to overly depend on 'growth' factors affecting the IV calculation and end up predicting it more incorrectly than those who rely more on the already available cash stock, business quality historically and bought it with sufficient MOS.
So...its up to one actually...to rely more on highly speculative...high risk high gain within a short time...or a low risk reasonable gain with lots of patience...depending on their own competence.
In summary...to win...you need to play "in a game of your own competence".
2016-06-22 13:49
the reason for the erratic price fluctuations are because of nervousness...Comcorp style nervousness.
And such nervousness is infectious. ...the virus grows exponentially.
But growth stocks that deliver growth are the first to reach new highs on rebounds, strongest, earliest rebounds, outpacing and out beating all those boring value stocks that people falsely think gives them margin of safety.
In other words, growth stocks gives you the better gains, faster gains and less time spend in detention.
Posted by probability > Jun 22, 2016 01:49 PM | Report Abuse
I must also add.... that the reason for the erratic price fluctuations are because of
2016-06-22 14:06
anyone who spends their time on maths instead of time in the field smelling the environment should instead go and become Maths Professors in Ivory Towers and let the risk takers and businessmen handle your money.
2016-06-22 14:11
when you see emotions is taking over rational maths...that's opportunity knocking on your door.
2016-06-22 14:36
all the investment maths I have seen are based on assumptions which are as wrong as the most emotional girl....and they don't even know it until it is too late
Posted by probability > Jun 22, 2016 02:36 PM | Report Abuse
when you see emotions is taking over rational maths...that's opportunity knocking on your door.
2016-06-22 14:41
stockman agree with you....it all depends on how good is their maths...and the same way...like you said...how good is one's 'gut feeling' or 'smelling' sensitivity / accuracy...
you have to play the game of your own competence.
Guess KC 's advise would be applicable for the general young investors who has the 'time to compound' on their side.
2016-06-22 14:46
from young everyone tells you about the certainty of maths.
I want to tell people the uncertainty of maths when applied to investments.
2016-06-22 14:49
the is no question on certainty of maths...there is only an uncertainty of equations you use and the variables you had considered and the magnitude you had placed on each variable.
Some maths equations are so precise that you can predict on the dot how to strike off a plane flying across Ukraine airspace 10,000 meters away.
2016-06-22 15:17
probability
maths is the language of physics.
stockmarket is not physics.
2016-06-22 15:24
agree..'thats why opportunity exists to make money' for those who are good on their competence field. As far as I can see...having good knowledge on FA valuation (i.e IV derivation) seems to give an obvious advantage...
2016-06-22 15:28
Posted by Frank Soweto > Jun 22, 2016 11:44 AM | Report Abuse
HI Kc
Hope all is well. The table 1 under appendix is showing the divvy 16 portfolio instead of GE watch 13.
Thanks for another great article - as always :)
Hi Frank, long time no see. Hope you are well too. Thanks for pointing out the mistake on Table 1. I have amended it.
Btw, why you always appear together with this "followblindly" fellow?
2016-06-22 18:34
Posted by stockmanmy > Jun 22, 2016 02:06 PM | Report Abuse
But growth stocks that deliver growth are the first to reach new highs on rebounds, strongest, earliest rebounds, outpacing and out beating all those boring value stocks that people falsely think gives them margin of safety.
In other words, growth stocks gives you the better gains, faster gains and less time spend in detention.
I have shown you evidence of extra-ordinary return of the super investors in value investing in my previous article below
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/98599.jsp
I have also shown you my personal experience in this article.
Why don't you show us something similar to justify your statement above?
2016-06-22 18:44
Posted by haikeyila > Jun 22, 2016 11:16 AM | Report Abuse
it is always great to learn from the experiences of long term value investors, thanks.
one question I always have though is - if value investing really is what all its touted to be - how come still very, very, very few people in the world are successful with it?
It is surely not that hard to learn value investing with all the books and articles out there, the principles and calculations are generally simple, but why are not more people using it, or more importantly become successful with it?
Anybody has any theory?
You may find your answer here,
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/50988.jsp
And because very few can be true value investors.
2016-06-22 19:11
All is well Kc except my portfolio LOL thanks :)
I oso dunno why I appeared at the same time as tat fella haha maybe my portfolio oso same as his/her (ie in the loss )but but I never followed blindly n oso I dun think I committed any sin let alone big ones like tat fellow did LOL - contrary to that fellow if I followed you blindly I would have made handsomely judging from the 3 tables portfolios :)
anyway, always enjoyed your articles n that of teacher (used to )but he is more TA n those CSI,MACC,candles n lighters r too complicated for me LOL hence I'm here following ( your articles )-not really blindly- since i spotted the incorrect table 1 haha but i believe tat fellow since was so unlucky to only followed Blindly on your few losing stocks keep following u now hoping that you can give back hisher roti chanai $$ by keep pestering u :) - tats my best guess LOL n u're lucky that his twin ( can't recall his id now ) did not show up as well LOL
ok better not talk too much after people will say carry your golf balls again LOL
FORE
2016-06-23 05:00
I have yet to mention how Elsoft, BIMB-W, MRCB-W. Insas(all KC recommended) performed for past 1-2 years.
2016-06-23 05:07
Why still no answer?
Posted by Superstock2016 > Jun 21, 2016 10:36 PM | Report Abuse
Good article! Master Chong, what is your next superstock?
2016-06-23 05:08
Common sentence in KC blogs. If KC really can make much money he must be very rich. Why still need our fee?
If you are interested to learn about this value investing for a small fee, please contact me at
ckc14invest@gmail.com
2016-06-23 05:09
To be fair, you don't need to be bothered about his portfolio performance. Because his portfolio performance is not the point in his articles. Besides, if he has 10 apples but few of them are spoiled, he still gains as long as his winners are more than his losers.
What you want is to learn how to fish from him, not for him to provide fish for you. There is no free lunch in the world, it's not a matter of whether he is rich or not. You want something, you have to give something. It's called the "the law of equivalent exchange".
2016-06-23 05:17
oh shit now Kc might think this blindly follow fella is me since he showed up right after my post - talking about getting strike by lightning :(
2016-06-23 05:39
Posted by donfollowblindly > Jun 23, 2016 05:08 AM | Report Abuse
Why still no answer?
Posted by Superstock2016 > Jun 21, 2016 10:36 PM | Report Abuse
Good article! Master Chong, what is your next superstock?
UNBELIEVABLE - still want to follow blindly after all the losses ? if u have followed kc articles non blindly u would have known that Kc mentioned many times that he does not have a crystal ball, his stock picks r based on buying below IV etc etc
@haikeyila - there - above statement why despite many FA articles out there not many are successful- why bother when u can follow blindly by asking for tips :) no wonder teacher said 90% lose money in the mart LOL
2016-06-23 06:05
Posted by Ezra_Investor > Jun 23, 2016 05:17 AM | Report Abuse
To be fair, you don't need to be bothered about his portfolio performance. Because his portfolio performance is not the point in his articles. Besides, if he has 10 apples but few of them are spoiled, he still gains as long as his winners are more than his losers.
What you want is to learn how to fish from him, not for him to provide fish for you. There is no free lunch in the world, it's not a matter of whether he is rich or not. You want something, you have to give something. It's called the "the law of equivalent exchange".
Bull's eye
2016-06-23 06:19
Value investing is propagated by KC not invented by KC and this method is proven right in long run through facts, studies and researches. Thus, instead of wasting time to test your own method, why not we just humbly learn from the wise one, and KC to me is indeed the wisest one among all. "Learning, learning and learning" no matter at what ages, no matter how good you are, things change, keep learning is the only way we avoid being obsoleted
2016-06-23 16:15
Heard so much about value investing and IV of late, may I ask adv fm so many sifus here and KC in particular when is the right time to sell....
1) oni if the share price hitting the IV?
2)How about the share price has gone up 20% but yet to achieve the IV?
3)Wud it be better if the share price has gone up say 20% from the purchase price I sell if off and re-buy it again when it dropped back to the initiate purchase price and sell if off again when hitting 20% rather than waiting it to achieve the IV?
The sum of 20% profit from the 2 purchases may be close to the IV and my profit turn around will be faster?
2016-06-23 16:53
there are sifus offering TA for a fee
also sifus offering FA for a fee
too bad no sifus offering BA.
not Bachelor of Arts............Business Analysis.
too bad.
we get so many incomplete analysis
Equity Analysis stands on a tripod
But i3 produces bipod analysis.
not all
sometimes, we do get bloggers who cover all 3 legs
what I cannot stand are spreadsheets of FA without any BA.
2016-06-23 17:05
ive emailed you but u havnt reply me yet. i wish to learn more about value investing. Can u pls reach me at tshenming@hotmail.com
2016-06-23 23:43
Posted by stockmanmy > Jun 23, 2016 05:05 PM | Report Abuse
there are sifus offering TA for a fee
also sifus offering FA for a fee
too bad no sifus offering BA.
not Bachelor of Arts............Business Analysis.
too bad.
we get so many incomplete analysis
Equity Analysis stands on a tripod
But i3 produces bipod analysis.
not all
sometimes, we do get bloggers who cover all 3 legs
what I cannot stand are spreadsheets of FA without any BA.
Not sure why your BA is so great. Wish to know more what is the difference from FA.
Can't stand FA without your apa ini BA?
Why don't you start to give course on your "Tripod" then?
2016-06-27 11:46
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Superstock2016
Good article! Master Chong, what is your next superstock?
2016-06-21 22:36