kcchongnz blog
Do you really know about investing? kcchongnz
I was utterly amused by a comment in my thread in i3investor here,
http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/forum/600092114.jsp
[Posted by stockmanmy > Apr 6, 2017 10:02 AM | Report Abuse 
Risk freaks people out.
look at self proclaimed value investors...Calvin, this raider, KC........risk freaks them out.
but stock market is there to reward investors who assume risk and later proven correct...That is what stock market is all about.
KC.....
if KC is genuine value investor, he will recommend Genting ( Genting is fantastic under valued stock ) instead of recommending small little manufacturing company with a few million revenue per quarter. That is what irritates me.....KC, the self proclaimed value investor is but actually small cap speculator....hang pig head to sell dog meat.]
This statement made above is utterly nonsense for someone who proclaim himself to be a smart-investor, criticizing everything whoever writes, except for one person, whom he will praise and worships him like God, whatever he writes. He is a very strange person. I have never met a person with this kind of extreme behavior before.
Let’s have some fun here.
“Genting is fantastic under valued stock”. He claimed.
Tell me why it is “fantastic undervalued stock”? What is so “fantastic”? I will leave it to him to explain to us. To facilitate him, I will summarize some metrics for him as reference, as we all know, he will never use any number or metrics. I won’t be surprise he may just say, “Genting is fantastic undervalued stock because it is high in the mountain”. Let us wait and see.
Genting: data from Malaysiastock.biz
Share price: RM9.33
Revenue: About RM18 billion a year (very consistent over the last 5 years)
Trailing twelve months’ EPS = 57.21 sen
ROE 6.1%
Dividend per share: 12.5 sen
NTA: RM9.35
“if KC is genuine value investor, he will recommend Genting”. He teaches me what to do.
In the first place, I used to share my analysis of stocks in i3investor some time ago. Just merely sharing and discussing. I never recommend anyone to buy them. What for? If I am right, who is thankful to me? If I am wrong, you will see all kind of abusive words and ridicules used, even if I am right 8 out of 10 times, and wrong just 2.
Unless I have so many shares that I want to dump to them, and I have no qualm about it. In other word, I capitalize on the naïve investors and pump and dump to make a killing. In this market, I think it works if one is a famous blogger and a well-respected person in the society. But sorry, first of all, I have to admit that I am not filthy rich to be able to own 30% of a company. Even if I were, I also won’t do it. I am not that kind of person.
Okay, let us talk about Genting.
Figure 1 below shows the share price movement of Genting in the last 4 years and three months from 23rd January 2013 to now. Its share price has gone up by 20% from an adjusted price of RM7.77 to the close of RM9.33 today on 6th April 2017. Is the return over the last 4 years and 3 months “fantastic”?
To you maybe, but not to me.
But why did I use the beginning data from 23rd January 2013?
I had just written an article, “Luck or Skill, who is lucky and who is skillful?” in i3investor in the link below,
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/119863.jsp
You see, I like to substantiate what I say, not just simply shoot with baseless slogans.
In the link above, it shows a portfolio of 10 stocks of mine, named “GE13 Watch” set up in i3investor on the same date on 23rd January 2013, and another one, “Stock Pick Challenge 2H 2013” on 1st August 2013.
On the first one, “GE13 Watch”, this is the summary of the total return as on today on 6th April 2017,
“During this period, the average return of the portfolio of ten stocks is 143.3%, or a median return of 92.5%, widely out-performed the gain of the broad market KLCI of just 20.6%. The compounded annual return of the portfolio (CAR) is high at 24%”.
On the second portfolio, “Stock Pick Challenge 2103 2H”,
“During this period, the return of the broad market was up by 8.4%. The portfolio of stocks out-performed the broad KLSE market with an average return of 145%, or a median of 71%. The CAR of the portfolio is 30%, even better than the “GE13 Stock Watch” above. if I could put aside RM1000 a month and invest in the share market for a return of 30%, I would have accumulated a total of about RM9m in 30 years, a huge sum of money.”
This was a statement made by the same person in the thread above,
[Posted by stockmanmy > Apr 5, 2017 02:20 AM | Report Abuse
People like you, you think you can keep a share and not sell it after 5% gain?
so scared of market, so scared of risks...every thing starts with margin of safety, how you can keep a share after a 5% gain?
so, don't bullshit with some bullshit portfolio....show me you can buy 30% of Jaks.]
First let me teach you what “Margin of Safety” (MOS) is about. For value investor, we buy stocks at a MOS, a price which is well below the estimated intrinsic value of the stock. I normally use a MOS of 30%. So, value investors don’t sell a stock just because it has gone up by 5% in share price, because there is still plenty of room for the share price to go up, unlike those using “Dynamite investing”, who hope to buy back when the share price goes down by 5%.
“Bullshit”? Very familiar term. I will let the readers to decide who bullshits. “Show me you can buy 30% Jaks”.
I can’t buy 30% Jaks for sure, and I have to admit it, but no regret. I know many people can do that too. The “Ah Long” down my street with the big renovated house and 10 luxurious cars sure can do it.
Let’s get back to Genting.
So, which is better; investing in Genting for 20% return in 4 years and 3 months, or a portfolio of smaller capitalized stocks which are lighter and hence can run faster and no fund manager even look at it, for 145% over the same period of time?
Genting’s share price appreciation mirrors the broad market return very well at 20% over the last 4 years and 3 months as you can see. Investing a bucket of those big cap stocks will give you that kind of return.
“KC, the self proclaimed value investor is but actually small cap speculator....hang pig head to sell dog meat”. Claimed by Stockmanny
Benjamin Graham, along with David Dodd, attempted a precise definition of investing and speculation in their seminal work Security Analysis (1934). “An investment operation is one which, upon thorough analysis, promises safety of principal and a satisfactory return. Operations not meeting these requirements are speculative.”
All the stocks mentioned in my two portfolios were mostly accompanied by detail analysis and valuations. You can find them by goggling in i3investor. I have never used the terms “Sailang”, “Panic moment”, “Dynamite investing” or any other empty shouting slogans.
Who is a speculator?
Yes, I seldom look at Genting, Public Bank, Maybank, KLK, IOI, etc., those big capitalized stocks listed in Bursa. How can one get good buys in those stocks when almost every fund manager is watching them like hawks and must own them?
I tend to be contrarian. I don’t follow fund managers and intuitional investors. I don’t buy pump-and-dump shares. I travel Off the Beaten Path to find outsized return.
However, I must give you an advice, you need it. Do not follow what I do, because despite you claiming to be an accountant, I don’t think you have the knowledge, to invest the way like I do.
For most others, you must learn the language of business first, as investing in a stock is akin to invest in part of a business. Don’t use “Dynamites”.
That is what I always propagate, and try to entice you to learn the language of business. There are many resources out there for you to acquire this knowledge. But if you wish to learn it in a structured manner with guidance, you may contact me at,
ckc13invest@gmail.com
Sorry for this advertisement again. It is a passion of mine to teach about the fundamental value investing to enable you to build long-term wealth safely, slowly and surely, and to enable you to evaluate all those pump-and-dump activities and avoid losing your hard-earned money. If you read papers, you would have noticed the Security Commission has warned you about that.
Happy Investing.
KC Chong
Note: Just as I am finishing this post, here is another similar comment, over and over again.
Posted by stockmanmy > Apr 6, 2017 06:11 PM | Report Abuse
kc
you disappoint me.
Applying your fancy formulas on small cap stocks is like a carpenter with wrong tools.
A genuine value investor will recommend Genting with a market cap to EBITA ratio of 5. Apply your fancy formulas to a mature Company like Genting la.
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Discussions
16 people like this. Showing 50 of 284 comments
Posted by MG9231 > Apr 8, 2017 06:40 PM | Report Abuse
Calvin, I cannot agree more what you said about this dynamic( in fact is tin Kosovo) style of investing fellow cum fake accountant.
Through out his conversation with KC, it really let me laugh to die. He spew out like a drunk fellow, (head of cow not match the horse mouth) in Chinese.牛頭不对馬嘴。
Sifu MG9231,
I don't know why? I feel very sad and deeply sorry for Stockmanmy's behavior. I think his character is flawed and with incurable mental problem that he himself is totally unaware.
This feeling is akin to pity for him. And I am also appalled to know that Uncle Koon think highly of such a defective character like Stockmanmy.
2017-04-09 01:39
You don't find it funny meh when a self proclaimed conservative, prudent, risk adverse guy spends the bulk of his time/ assets in Ace?
Hang pig head to sell dog meat
Nothing against dog lovers.
There are noises, there are deviations
But, Risk reward relation is always there
Hunting for superior returns in Ace market?
Then don't call yourself conservative, prudent , or risk adverse.. Don't call yourself Value Investor.
Hang pig head to sell dog meat?
You are only deceiving yourself and using the wrong tools.
Margin of safety rules?
Only in your imagination. Its just a handicap to Dynamic Investing.
2017-04-09 10:14
Posted by enning22 > Apr 7, 2017 05:40 PM | Report Abuse
kcchongnz kindly educate yourself first , and not to mislead othersas whim , The Last VS episode , clearly showed you have many things to learn.
I would like you to go back the few articles on VS which I have written to share my opposing view of what I thought about VS at that time. You know I have shared many things in i3investor, without any motive, but just for the sake of sharing.
Tell me what, which, where, how I mislead. What "whim" used?
Tell me what can I learn from you too.
I do admit that I cannot predict the future, and I did not do that for VS. I won't be able to forecast the share price in the future, and hence won't know the future of VS. Neither was I able to know the business of VS in the future, which seems to be doing better now.
I also admit that I am human, a retail investor, and I can be wrong too.
2017-04-09 10:21
Only THE NAIVE AND THOSE WHO DO NOT UNDERSTAND INVESTMENT FIND IT FUNNY LOH.....!!
VALUE INVESTMENT DO NOT DISCRIMATE....ALWAYS BASED ON THE GUIDING PRINCIPLE OF MARGIN OF SAFETY LOH....!!
u only start to worry if kc sway by buying into lemon stock, the likes of JAKS with no margin of safety mah....!!
ACE counter....no issue mah....if u stick to the guiding principle of margin of safety loh....!!
If value investors simply ignore....ACE mkt...they may missed GREAT opportunity like MYEG when it is cheap....one of the best performer stock loh...!!
As a value investor....always feel free to test the guiding principle of investment using margin of safety in all form of mkt, not confine to the klse main board alone loh.....!!
KC is right to venture into Ace mkt using value investment principle loh....!!
2017-04-09 10:41
stockraider said → U MUST UNDERSTAND KYY DO PAKAT WITH EXISTING JAKS OWNER LOH...!!
U THINK KYY SO DAMN STUPID BUY 30% INTO A LEMON STOCK LIKE JAKS WHICH HE NEED TO WAIT 5 YEARS FOR VIETNAM PROJECT TO PRODUCE ELECTRICITY ??
...
DUMP COME IN 2 PARTS SLOWLY SELL TO THE MKT OR KEEP DOING PLACEMENT MAH......!!
...............
Me: U r right stockraider regarding 2 types of dumping process.
2017-04-09 12:06
Agree with stockRaider.
A manipulator normally collaborates with the company owner!!!
2017-04-09 12:28
Uncle doesn't favor walk the talk. He breaks his golden rules again by investing in Jaks. Is it his he has changed to sailang investing, business sense investing, pivot moment investing? Lol
2017-04-09 12:31
https://www.investing.com/indices/ftse-malaysia-ace
Malaysia Ace Index.above.
Everyone claims they are value investors and jump into Malaysia Ace shares, either earlier or in future.
For heaven's sake...you want to trade, go and trade la......
Don't go and claim you are prudent and conservative and risk adverse and also show me all your assets / time are employed in Ace counters.
Value investor , my foot
Hang pig head to sell dog meat.
2017-04-09 16:45
The worse is , of course, in same breathe tell me about 30% margin of safety...................
Hang pig head to sell dog meat.
the most popular pass time in the world?
2017-04-09 16:54
BH 09/04: Juara dunia 5 kali, Lin Dan tewaskan Datuk Lee Chong Wei, 21-19, 21-14 pada aksi final Terbuka Malaysia di Kuching sebentar tadi
2017-04-09 16:56
Aiyah..!!! Today is Sunday, you guys should be happy n enjoying your life wz families n friends. Why all these rubbish! Create a lots of evil 'karma'. Have a mind that's free n easy going. Good luck!
2017-04-09 17:39
Some like pork
some like dog meat
But please la
Don't hang pig head to sell dog meat
Analysts are very creative people
Too bad, they are not very good in making you rich.
2017-04-09 17:39
Some ppl like "pork free" while some still excited to see "free pork"
So wat say you?
2017-04-09 17:44
Investing is:
buy high sell higher
buy low sell lower
buy low sell higher
buy high sell low
buy high and hold for children
:DD
2017-04-09 18:21
The ultimate truth about the stock market
Risk and reward are inter related.
No risk no reward
You want reward, you have to be prepared to face risk
30% margin of safety my foot.
There will be noises, there will be deviations
But ultimately, they all come back to risk - reward.
The stock market will ultimately reward people who assume risk and later events prove they are right
Identify the risks you have assumed and what future events will reward you.
2017-04-09 23:10
Warren buffet says the ultimate investor go for low risk high reward mah....!!
Don listen...who is naive....high return must undergo high risk loh...!!
This is craps loh....usually utter by naive & people who do not understand what is ultimate investment loh...!!
2017-04-09 23:13
Beware of people who tell you
Buy this, got 30% margin of safety
hang pig head, sell dog meat more likely.
2017-04-09 23:30
anyway, I never like people who promise you heaven upon payment of a fee.
2017-04-09 23:34
ks
I am not here to sell you that I am a CPA
I just hate it when people spread fake news.
2017-04-09 23:37
ks
One whole life time of being misled.....you think it is easy for you to see the truth?
You don't have what it takes.
2017-04-09 23:39
Beware people telling you 30% margin of safety
Hanging pig head to sell dog meat.
2017-04-09 23:45
Mammy not so panlai loh....never make use financial info...no business sense loh....thats why plp like dog of kyy loh....!!
2017-04-10 13:23
I got all the time to entertain you or anyone else,.. That is why.
myongcc5 > Apr 10, 2017 01:15 PM | Report Abuse
I see manmy nothing wrong except too energetic focus on wrong items.
2017-04-11 10:23
One year already . Never seen you make a single successful Trade. Still want to talk much
stockraider > Apr 10, 2017 01:23 PM | Report Abuse
Mammy not so panlai loh....never make use financial info...no business sense loh....thats why plp like dog of kyy loh....!!
2017-04-11 10:24
I can be his witness.
Stockraider bought Reach mother and hold for 1-2 years and make ard 7-8%
Then he followed my advice to buy Reach-WA at RM0.07 and made 100% within 2-3 months time.
2017-04-11 10:29
People go to the moon and come back already.
Still talking about Reach as the only credit.
2017-04-11 10:44
Stockraider & CharlesT congrats for winning Reach-WA at RM0.07. Makan pun tak habis. ;-D
2017-04-11 10:48
Just a small example....loh....if ur boss will have not chicken out on his challenge on raider...he would have lost millions mah...!!
As usual...ur boss...KYY just talk big a really big talker...never honour his words loh..!!
2017-04-11 10:48
The below are stockmanmy's pick and Ooi Teik Bee's pick based on the closing price on 29/4/2016.
Let us check the performance on 30/12/2016.
Bornoil 0.15 X 14,000 = 2100
CBIP - 2.25 X 900 = 2025
Ekovest - 1.42 X 1500 = 2130
Ecoworld - 1.29 X 1500 = 1935
Taan - 4.79 X 200 = 958
Jtiasa - 1.35 x 700 = 945
Total capital = 10093
Actual performance on 30/12/2016
Bornoil 0.18 X 14,000 = 2520
CBIP - 1.97 X 900 = 1773
Ekovest - 2.38 X 1500 = 3570
Ecoworld - 1.34 X 1500 = 2010
Taan - 3.95 X 240 = 948 (1 for 5 BI)
Jtiasa - 1.34 x 700 = 938
Total capital = 11759
Total gain = +1666 or +16.50%
My pick
Gamuda-WE - 0.995 X 4,000 = 3,980
Gadang - 2.08 X 600 = 1,248
Gkent - 1.71 X 800 = 1,368
Kimlun-WA - 0.705 X 1,600 = 1,128
Pohuat-WB - 0.675 X 2,000 = 1,350
WTK - 1.20 X 1,000 = 1,200
Total capital = 10,274
Actual performance on 30/12/2016
Gamuda-WE - 1.21 X 4,000 = 4,840
Gadang - 1.05 X 1500 = 1,575 (1 split into 2 and 1 for 4 BI)
Gadang-WB - 0.42 x 300 = 126 (Free WB)
Gkent - 3.04 X 1000 = 3,040 (1 for 4 BI)
Kimlun-WA - 0.67 X 1,600 = 1,072
Pohuat-WB - 0.775 X 2,000 = 1,550
WTK - 0.995 X 1,000 = 995
Total capital = 13,198
Total gain = +2,924 or +28.46%
Summary
stockmanmy gain +1666 or +16.50%
OTB - Gain +2,924 or +28.46%
I wish to post this record here for reference to avoid future argument.
I used the below magic formulae to select stocks to beat stockmanmy.
I used Margin Of Safety > 30%
I used EV/EBIT < 8
I used (22.5*EPS*Total Equity/share)^0.5
I used IV= (EPS*(7.5+1.5g)*4.4)/Y
I used Discounted Cash Flows Calculator
I used ROIC (Equity) > 12%
I used ROE > 10%
I also used the followings :-
CFFO > 50% Net Profit
Price to CFFO <= 15
Free Cash Flow > 30% Net Profit
Price to Free Cash Flow <=20
Cash Yield > 4%
Earnings Yield > 12%
Price / Book Value < 1.5
Interest Coverage > 9
I am not an accountant, I want to talk on facts and figures only.
Thank you.
Ooi
2017-04-12 09:10
haha... OTB seems like a student of KC Chong.. yup.. fundamental/value investing is still the right way to go with...
I do not know OTB in person but I think his/KC's method of investing will definitely KO the PLPman in a long run...
2017-04-14 15:45
PLPman can earn 100% in a short period of time, but at the same time, he can also lose 100% or 200% of his $$$...
Value investing is maybe slower but definitely a more secured and steady method.
2017-04-14 15:47
facts...OTB.....what happened to the bet between your Gamuda Warrant and my Econpile?
2017-04-14 15:49
not bad. Boleh pakai
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/stockman/95698.jsp
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/stockman/92512.jsp
2017 competition portfolio.
All well balanced portfolios that can handle any condition.
2017-04-14 16:02
B Graham and Value investors very popular around here , isn't it.?
I suppose we can all put the financial information in a spread sheet, apply a magic formula, and puff, out comes the answer...............and wait, and wait and wait for the magic formula to work its magic.
But B Graham died a long time ago, even before there is the internet.
Nobody dreams of using a horse carriage travelling to work, but people don't mind being suckered...if it is about a possibility for some money.
On stock picking, if I am to recommend one guru, one tip, it would have to be William O Neal and his CANSLIM....go google it your self
On the objective of all good strategies........don't get killed if wrong, makes a killing when right. If you can do that, you can be rich as KYY.
All chemical reactions need a catalyst. Have you got a catalyst? How strong is the catalyst? Is it reliable, dependable? Got a sponsor/ sponsors?
I will end this with 3 quotes from him..................
Quotes
"Since the market tends to go in the opposite direction of what the majority of people think, I would say 95% of all these people you hear on TV shows are giving you their personal opinion. And personal opinions are almost always worthless … facts and markets are far more reliable."
"The whole secret to winning and losing in the stock market is to lose the least amount possible when you're not right."
"What seems too high and risky to the majority generally goes higher and what seems low and cheap generally goes lower."
2017-04-14 16:17
A portfolio that can face any storm
145) stockmanmy +17.2% 117227.38 http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/cube/stockmanmy.jsp
14% LEONFB 0.650 0.465 25700|14% AIRASIA 3.050 2.290 5200|12% SAM 5.980 4.900 2400|12% SCIENTX 7.910 6.700 1800|11% AAX 0.390 0.360 33200|10% MAGNI 4.930+0.06 4.190 2400|10% SCGM 3.950+0.02 3.400 2900|9% AEONCR 15.440 14.360 700|7% CSCSTEL 1.860 2.150 4600 (116956.00:271.38|240.12)
2017-04-14 19:54
Who is kcchongnz?
167) kcchongnz +14.0% 113966.59 http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/71070.jsp
24% FIBON 0.735 0.555 37000|21% MAGNI 4.930+0.06 4.190 4800|20% FAVCO 2.700 2.380 8400|19% FLBHD 1.590 1.600 13700|16% LATITUD 5.230 4.900 3500 (113915.00:51.59|239.41)
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/ibot/120738.jsp
2017-04-14 21:22
Who is kcchongnz?
don't know.
but looks exactly like what he teaches...all based on historical figures, ....where is his JDHM and Ace counters?
where is diversity and diversification, where is catalysts and what he is trying to do? No idea, just book work.
2017-04-14 21:41
When I built the three portfolios above, maximization of profits is never the number one criterion, all three were built to show what a well diversified, defensive portfolio and capital protection looks like taking into account business sense, management and numbers and William O Neal CANSLIM.
2017-04-14 22:00
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Richest guy cannot follow anyone
Wall lend but fade too rich until he cannot find anyone to follow
So he make his own rules
Poor guy just follow richest guy rules
:D
2017-04-09 00:52