[转帖] 沧海投资三部曲 – 投资哲学之“选股篇” - 夜月

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[转帖] 沧海投资三部曲 – 投资哲学之“选股篇” - 夜月

Tan KW

Publish date: Sat, 17 Aug 2013, 11:51 PM

第一册：公司营业额将有突发成长的潜能，或则公司的成本即将大量下降。或两则同时发生
公司目前进行产能扩充，又或则开发新的产品，市场或则新业务，而这项业务有助于公司营业额快速成长。

公司的生产成本在未来有望下降。

两者合起来就是公司的盈利成长潜能，钱赚越多，公司的股价就自然节节上升。

第二册：公司所经营的都是专利生意
专利可以分为两种。一种是市场专利生意，而另一种则是政府保护的专利生意。

市场专利生意为通过公司内部的努力，利用公司强劲的品牌，稳稳占据市场，制造了市场专利。例子 – NTPM，PANAMY，OLD TOWN

政府保护专利生意为通过政府的营业执照来保护的生意，从中制造了政府保护专利权。例子 – TENAGA，NCB，AIRPORT

拥有专利权的生意，其成长来源来自于未来产品价格上涨，又或者来自于公司逐步扩充。

虽然专利生意不一定担保公司的股价会节节上升，但是它却有效的避免了面对大亏损的困境。

第三册：反向型投资

首先，公司的产品是有绝对的需求量的。例如木材，棕油，钢铁都是生活中无法被淘汰的必须品。接下来，这类生意都是属于周期性生意（有高峰，也会有低迷期）。所以我们

可以在特定行业进入寒冬时，找寻有潜质的企业，然后买入并持有至行业恢复，然后再卖出。

第四册：寻找高息股
主要找寻拥有良好业务，而且拥有派发7%周息的企业。买入后，买年收取利息，并且利用所收取的股息，继续加码，以滚雪球方式来赚取更多股息（我们也简称为“种股息”）

Source: leinvest

Discussions

2 people like this. Showing 5 of 7 comments

BBB79

寻找高息股种股息

2013-08-18 09:20

kcchongnz

High dividend yield is indeed a very popular strategy in Bursa. But is high dividend yield providing you with a better total return? I doubt so. If you are interested, you can refer to the thread below:

http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/forum/900271553.jsp

But still high dividend yield can be a good investment strategy if you look out for a couple of things, like whether adequate reinvestment in capital expenses is being used productively for future growth. the other thing is if company is borrowing to pay that high dividend.

2013-08-18 10:15

millionaire

莺莺美黛子 + high dividend yield, good investment strategy, it refers mainly the bluechip, like Maybank, Digi, Spsetia....etc

2013-08-18 11:21

kcchongnz

Posted by Tan KW > Aug 18, 2013 10:44 AM | Report Abuse

i think the author argue on high div yield with 拥有良好业务....

it should be 莺莺美黛子 + high dividend yield

TanKW, may be this is an interesting mini research you can do if you are interested. Select the best 10 dividend stocks 5 years ago. You can select those 莺莺美黛子, whatever it may mean. compute their 1,2,3,4 and 5 year CAR total return. Compare with that of KLSE. And also compare with an arbitrary portfolio.

If you wish, I have the CAR return of my portfolio started 7-8 months ago which was put up by you which you can compare with.

My instinct tells me that the total CAR return of that high dividend yield stocks which you are going to compute would not be much different from the CAR of the broad market. And it would be very far behind my portfolio put up by you previously.

2013-08-18 14:19

kcchongnz

TanKW, Your CAGR of nestle of 20% is certainly very good. It is twice the return of KLSE. But you should get a portfolio of those high dividend yield stocks, say 10 stocks to find the average which is more representative.

KLSE 5-year CAR
18/08/2008 1085
16/08/2013 1788
CAGR 10.5%

My portfolio returned about CAR of 25%. Those stocks in that portfolio also happened to be mostly high dividend yield stocks.

2013-08-18 16:59

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