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[转帖] 赌场与市场 差别在哪里? - Green

Tan KW
Publish date: Sat, 12 Oct 2013, 03:28 PM
Tan KW
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Good.

 

本文出自台湾作者Green。文章以台湾市场为背景

银白的雪覆盖了半片山头,隔着一条河是整个城市的夜景,但我却完全没有心思在美景上。下了计程车后冷风袭来,我拉紧了大衣并且低头看了我的手机,零下13度;我用小跑步的方式前进,不是因为天气太冷而是我想要尽快赶到我的目的地。

冬天的韩国首尔,华克山庄赌场。

5个小时后,我和朋友站在饭店酒吧的落地窗前,终于有机会好好欣赏汉江对面的首尔夜景。朋友开口问,为什么喜欢赌博?我回答道:「一开始为了赢钱,后来发现十赌九输,干脆改变心态。现在赌博求的是斗智的快感。」朋友跟我敲了酒杯表示同意。顺带一提,他在私人基金负责操作外汇跟原物料期货,绝对理性,并且穷极精力在追逐获利。

赌场就好像投资市场的缩影,是个违反人类逻辑的地方。几乎每个走进赌场的人都抱持著我要赢钱的心态,就像每个参与投资市场的人。都想着自己可以从投资市场获利,然后某天可以达到财富自由。

我几乎忍不住觉得这是人类最正面的时候了。讲到结婚,人们通常会先想到婚礼的花费跟冗长的流程,或是即将失去的自由、婆媳问题等,鲜少先想到婚姻后可以互相扶持的幸福;讲到运动,想到的都是上班很累没时间,台湾又常常下雨,也鲜少先想到运动给自己带来的好处。除了赌博跟投资,我们要做决策或是改变某个习惯时,我们通常会先想到「风险」。

我突然想起了刚刚在21点桌上发生的事。我拿到了4跟7,这是一把应该要牌的牌型,我用食指在桌上点了两下向庄家示意要牌,接着我拿到了9,总共20点!早知道刚刚应该下两倍的注,我在心里嘀咕著。结果庄家把自己的牌一掀,一张10跟A,刚好21点!庄家收走我的筹码同时,我立刻改变想法,还好我刚刚没有下两倍的注!

觉得很熟悉吗?没错,这跟投资市场像极了,即使我们知道所有的指标都告诉我们应该要买进,但我们永远无法保证会不会有令我们惊讶的事情发生。

但是有种情况可以让我们在赌场里一定赢钱:假设我们可以知道所有的底牌。如果玩21点的时候我可以知道每张牌的数字,我就知道要不要加注,或者该不该要牌,长久下来我一定可以赢钱。比大小的胜负就更绝对了,如果在玩比大小的时候骰盅是透明的,全场的人就会知道该押大还是押小,那么应该没有人会在这个赌局里面输钱了。

我朋友附议了我的说法并且说:「拥有的资讯多寡与正确度,决定了财富的差距,很多人认为期货跟赌博一样是场零和游戏,有人赚钱就有人输钱;每个进入期货市场的人总是认为自己能够猜对方向,然后迅速作出决策,进而从中获利。但这根本是不可能的事。

你知道我们有多少个MBA和博士生,日以继夜的在帮我们做研究吗?你知道我们花了多少时间在政商界建立人脉,好让我们可以提前得知某些在一个星期后会公布的重大并购案或是新产品发表会吗?一般的投资大众根本做不到这些事,所以我们在投资市场上总是可以赢走他们的钱。」

我朋友搭了我的肩膀,更小声地说:「更恐怖的是其实这根本不是场『零和游戏』,对投资大众而言这是场『负和游戏』。金融商品是我们创造出来的,所以你可以说整个市场是我们架构出来的,同时不论投资大众赢钱或是输钱,他们都必须付手续费。

我打个比喻好了。有个赌场进场要跟你收门票钱,门票是你今天本金的2%,然后这个赌场里面的庄家都跟赌神一样,全部配有西德的高科技隐形眼镜。如果你赢钱了,你离场的时候要再付本金加上获利的2%当服务费;如果你输钱了,想要赶快把筹码换成现金闪人,你还是要付剩下本金的2%。你觉得你赢钱的机率高吗?」

很低,而且对赌场而言,这是个绝对不会赔本的生意对吧?

投资市场就跟赌场差不多,不是吗?甚至赌场可能比投资市场还更要公平一些,至少不会有内线交易。前阵子闹得沸沸扬扬的胖达人炒股事件(乐投资百科 – 台湾其中一件内幕交易 Insider Trading),让我想起了今年初我跟朋友在华克山庄的这场对话。越是抱持著想要赚钱的心态去投资,越容易会因为心急而犯了投资决策的错误;能够理性且平常心的人,则可以用比较大的视野来看待这件事。

投资要瞻前也要顾后,而且顾后要比瞻前为先!最好是先「正确的」认识每种投资工具背后的风险,再依照自身的风险承受能力,来选择适合自己的投资工具。并且不断的关注自己所选择的工具或市场,蒐集相关资讯,才能使我们在投资市场上的胜率提高一点。

否则,我们跟赌场的那些赌徒有甚么两样呢?

 

Source: leinvest

 

Discussions
3 people like this. Showing 10 of 10 comments

bsngpg

投资市场就好像赌场的缩影,是个违反人类逻辑的地方。几乎每个走进的人都抱持著我要赢钱的心态,都想着自己可以从投资市场获利,然后某天可以达到财富自由。

(别发梦啦, 财富自由不是通过投资市场而已可达到的. 正业为主, 投资为辅呀)

投资要瞻前也要顾后.

2013-10-13 09:36

bsngpg

Perplexed, why good article cannot not attract any comment ? What does this implies ?

2013-10-13 09:38

bsngpg

Is this forum for hooray! hooray? Are we too optimistic now? I wish some experienced investors can kindly drop few warnings periodically.

2013-10-13 09:46

bsngpg

Based on my own experience, many counters heavily discussed in this forum are “Rxxxish or half Rxxxish” during big Bear market. During the big Bear, there is hardly people talk about them just like the useless stuff deep inside the store room. It is undeniable that you may make some fast money playing those second or third league counters in the current hot bull markets if you are lucky, but as a bread earner of our beloved home, shouldn’t we value our hard earned money more and invest in those more established and reliable counters? With this, we at least can still see our capital there while receiving some dividend as consolation money during the Bear market.

2013-10-13 10:10

jpleow

Hahaha, serious long term investors rarely come to this forum since they spend most of their time doing homework or research, not boasting around in this forum. :D

2013-10-13 13:00

kcchongnz

Posted by bsngpg > Oct 13, 2013 09:36 AM | Report Abuse

投资市场就好像赌场的缩影,是个违反人类逻辑的地方。几乎每个走进的人都抱持著我要赢钱的心态,都想着自己可以从投资市场获利,然后某天可以达到财富自由。

I have posted this a few times.

"In their 2009 paper on “option trading and individual investor performance” , Rob Bauer, Mathijs Casemans and Piet Eichholtz examine the performance and persistence of individual investors trading at a Dutch online broker. Using a database consisting of more than 68,000 accounts and eight million trades in stocks during January 2000 to March 2006, they find that: During 2000-2006, the average investor has negative alphas, meaning the return is below the market return. Not even the top tenth of performance manages to beat the market consistently. Those in the bottom tenth of performance lose more than 90% of value. "


(别发梦啦, 财富自由不是通过投资市场而已可达到的. 正业为主, 投资为辅呀)

You are absolutely right. Concentrate in earning money from your occupation as the main source. but don't forget to save and invest also as what this gentlemen said:

“How many millionaires do you know who have become wealthy by investing in savings accounts? I rest my case.” - Robert G. Allen

投资要瞻前也要顾后.

True too. But be reminded that when you drive, there is a limit of how far you get see ahead, especially in a foggy place. Be sure to look at the rear mirror so that you won't get knocked down by cars from behind too.

2013-10-13 17:39

kcchongnz

Posted by bsngpg > Oct 13, 2013 09:38 AM | Report Abuse
Perplexed, why good article cannot not attract any comment ? What does this implies ?

Is this the only good article posted by Tan KW? He has posted scores of them, none or little of them have attracted any interest.

But Tan KW, there are some reading those articles, me included.

2013-10-13 17:53

bsngpg

Thanks my friend.

Many come here to hooray, I come here to read and learn and not forgetting to contribute humbly wherever applicable. Most of the articles (market blog) were read by me, thousand thanks to KW Tan and other “posters” and your postings too except those you disputed hotly with others.

Your comment came in during my “beach jogging time”(yesterday I made it 6 kms), so I have to excuse myself here. Cheers.

2013-10-13 18:18

Yee Liang

Thousands thanks to KW Tann too. I am also one of those who always read ur article. Reading the articles u posted daily, are what I usually do after work. Those articles are good, really appreciate it. Thanks :)

2013-10-13 21:16

Steve Ker

Same here, thank you so much Mr KW Tan.

2013-10-14 16:32

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