bsngpg

我的看法：
他是对的。批评他者只怕是half past six，沒经历过大熊市. 几年後再见真章吧。

2013-10-20 17:50

iafx

anyone can mumble & mumble & mumble for yearS, finally got right 1 time and claim he is right forever. hahahaa... icap wasted 1 of the very best rally in history, that's a fact too.

2013-10-20 21:57

bsngpg

You r right, Icap missed de bull this round. At his level, it is weird that he missed it.
What I mean RIGHT is his assessment on the current mktg. I agree with him that the current High is risky and unsustainable.

Then, should I sell now? Due to greed, I do not plan to sell too but prepare to take loss. I foresee I will be in negative position in de upcoming Bear but Icap in positive position. Let us see.

2013-10-20 22:23

inwest88

bsnpng, agree that the market is rather uncertain. In fact I have been a net seller this month. The market is looking tired.

2013-10-20 22:35

iafx

at all time high, it's an uncharted situation sure there come plenty of worries. but looking back, which day after klci cross 1450 v r not worry? learn how to cope with it is most important rather than guessing the market. treat investment like doing biz is the best, not gamble. icap is gambling the market shall crash, bottom fishing is equally deadly. manage yr greed is a must, don't put everything in share market, common sense.

good luck!

2013-10-20 22:35

Ooi Teik Bee

Please note that FBMKLCI is forming a bullish Inverted Head And Shoulder, KL stock market will be super bullish if KLCI can cross 1,805.
Please look at the chart yourself.
Thank you.

2013-10-20 22:36

inwest88

Thanks OTB, for your view.

2013-10-20 22:37

bsngpg

As I agreed with his high risk assessment on the current mktg which means I should not buy Icap now as it is also at high risks too b'cos Icap's biz is in Bursa. I will buy Icap in future, not now.

My current position in Bursa is neither buy nor sell. But deep inside my heart, I should sell now. What to do, I am an ordinary people with greed. Greed is "shiok" than rational.

Anyway, as long as the earning of companies in my portfolio is still the same or not too bad as compared to the current, my div yield is still higher than FD in the Bear mktg. Thus I will have a cut in capital, but the div income is still higher than FD. This will weather thru the Bear for the next Bull. I see this is the greatest thing I have made in this Bull.

2013-10-20 23:50

kcchongnz

I was told that in the annual general shareholders meeting of icap, almost all the participants were treating Tan Teng Boo as the oracle of Bursa. They praised him, nodded with full agreement with whatever he said. Anybody who raised any disagreement or presented an opposing view would be shut down by the attendees. TTB once said he is better than Warren Buffet.

This is hero worshipping. Is hero worshipping good for you in investing? Is hero worshipping good for icap shareholders? I guess few of them know the correct answer.

Let us look at the share price performance of icap since 5 years ago. Table 1 below shows the performance of icap compared to KLSE as on 18/10/2013, with the closing price of RM2.34, and KLSE at 1800.

Year 1 2 3 4 5
Icap share price 2.21 1.93 1.92 1.71 1.40
Icap 5.9% 10.1% 6.8% 8.2% 10.8%
KLCI 7.7% 11.8% 6.5% 9.2% 15.9%

For a 5 year holding period, the compounded annual return of icap share is 10.8%, way under-performed the broad market of 15.9% by 5.1%. Compared with other holding period, icap’s performance is dismal to say the least.

How is icap performance compared to the unit trusts which many people scorn of? Read my analysis in the link below and find out from yourselves.

http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/forum/600023703.jsp

Why is the performance of icap so bad? The Archilles heel of TTB is he is practising market timing since 5 years ago to try to earn extra-ordinary return for icap, despite him saying that he is a value investor. Up to a third to half of icap assets are kept as cash since 5 years ago; worrying about depression coming, Dubai debt problem, General Election, European debt crisis, China slowdown, US debt crisis, Quantity Easing, Umno election etc, events which are beyond his control.

Is the market too high now at PE 15-16? I am not sure because the market has been much higher than this. Is the market risky? I don’t know but TTB believes very strongly about it. Of course investors should follow his advice, and not mine, because he is the oracle of Bursa. But again he has been saying this since 5 years ago.
The following sayings may provide some light.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” Peter Lynch

“Most of success in life is in just showing up.” Woody Allen

“Investors would do well to learn from deer hunters and fishermen who know the importance of “being there” and using patient persistence-so they are there when opportunity knocks.”
Charles Ellis Investment Policy

2013-10-21 09:01

bsngpg

就像玩大小，我先輸你五小次（因为信心指数較底），保留大量资金，耐心等待机会。当机会一到，一般都是间隔几年，一次大量下注，把之前少赢的都赢回来。常期平均值还是較高的。

2013-10-21 10:00

bsngpg

当然那不是我啦，因为我没那本事，也不那样做。不过却觉得Icap有这能耐。

2013-10-21 10:04

iafx

gambling yes, once result out u collect all yr win at once. but in bear market, how do u know a bottom is real bottom? it can go low and lower until u r exhausted it still going south. also, share market is affected by external issue as well.

ttb knows any mistake he made now will result to expel, so the best he can do is nothing and sing bear song. however, who knows what he did behind. good luck to him!

2013-10-21 10:05

kcchongnz

Say you have 100m and you bet 玩大小. Your first bet 1m on "big", a small bet. You lose. You bet the second one, also lose. So after losing 5 five time betting "big", or 5m, you said ini kali lah and you bet 5m, a big bet on this "big" again.

First what is the probability that this time is "big"? Mathematically it is still 50-50. So say this time it comes out "big" and you win 5m. And you just make back what you have lost the last 5 times.

But don't forget the probability that it will come out "small" again is 50%. And if it happens, what will happen?

You lose all your money.


Various market timing research for 10 years ending 1997 have been carried out. During this period, the S&P 500 was up more than 18% per year. these are just two of them which are also consistent with other research.

Mark Hulbert in Hulbert’s Financial Digest.
1. The timer’s annual average returns ranged from 5.8% to 16.9%.
2. The average return was 10.1%
3. None of the market timers beat the market

MoniResearch studied the performance of 85 fund managers with a total of 10 billion under management.
1. The timers’ annual average return ranged from 4.4% to 16.9%
2. The average return was 11.04%
3. None of the market timers beat the market

2013-10-21 10:15

bsngpg

当然所為一次性非一次交易，而是一次熊市的交易。Icap是专业投资机構，当然知道何为熊，问题在於熊头，熊肚还是熊尾。只要熊尾是不实際的。就像现在牛市，我们从不知何时是头、肚、尾。把现在的情况倒轉就是了。

2013-10-21 10:28

iafx

not sure if translated is correct or not... but since icap failed to identify the bull, u think icap can identify the bear? icap cannot handle a bull u believe icap can manage the bear? annual report a must read - yes, but do not take everything as is... believe it or not up to u. will stop here as don't want to waste time on icap cerita, good luck!

sweet talk lure greed, watchout.

2013-10-21 10:33

kcchongnz

Icap是专业投资机構，当然知道何为熊

Aren't all the management funds and unit trusts in US and the world 专业投资机構? But the statistics are indisputable. 75-80% of those funds under-performed the broad market.

So can they predict the market direction? You tell me.

2013-10-21 10:34

kcchongnz

Tan KW,

Yes, a better measurement of icap's performance is its NAV. At present the market price is 20% below its NAV.

But since 5 years ago, icap has been undervalued at about the same magnitude. That means the growth in NAV is about the same as the compounded annual growth of its share price. That means NAV is also under-performing at the same magnitude as the share price.

That could also mean that at a discount of 20% to its NAV, icap is a good investment. Not because TTB is a good fund manager. Anyway, he has been proven to be just another ordinary fund manager for the last 5 years.

2013-10-21 10:42

bsngpg

YTL & WB 也计算时机呀！YTL买英国水務公司，WB买銀行（08年吧）。计算时机不意味平时不做买卖，只是量的不同。保留大量子弹，时机一到就大胆岀擊。岀擊之后也会輸呀！不过只要时间一长，回酬是非常可观的。

2013-10-21 10:44

bsngpg

我们现在所做的难道也不是在计算时机吗？不然为何我今天不买Zhulian？难道我知道它己到尽头？可能不久后它去到5.20？问题在於机会成本。

Icap所做的其实跟我们是一样的。只是或许它目前的成绩落後於大市而己。这不代表它对现在市场的看法不可取。

2013-10-21 11:13

houseofordos

That could also mean that at a discount of 20% to its NAV, icap is a good investment. Not because TTB is a good fund manager. Anyway, he has been proven to be just another ordinary fund manager for the last 5 years.

If the fund's assets are marked to market then is 20% discount to NAV justified ? Dont really understand this close ended fund... because in most open ended fund NAV = unit price..

2013-10-21 11:24

kcchongnz

bsngpg, it is not that 它对现在市场的看法不可取。 Many famous investors and economists are also having the same opinion. But again there are also equal number of famous investors and economists having the opposite thinking.

The fact is that in the capital market, nobody can predict the market correctly and consistently. Tan Teng Boo is no exception. In fact he is one of the unlucky ones who has been wrong about the market for too many times and for so long. He is no hero. In fact heroes are rare breed in the capital market.

2013-10-21 11:26

bsngpg

KC大佬：你说70-80%of fund mgr underperformed the broad mkt. However my actual investment in about 8 funds in Public Mutual, 2 in EastSpring(Prudential) n 3 in Osk-uob, are averagely above broad mkt.

2013-10-21 11:28

bsngpg

KC大佬：I am a pure Chinese educated old fashion guy. I like to hear 忠言more than 火上加油. So when Icap assessed that the current mkt is risky, I support the comment to alert more people. I think it is better than hooray and keep on pumping money into mkt.

2013-10-21 11:39

kcchongnz

bsngpg, my statement about 75%-80% of the funds under-performed the market is for the research from the US market. My statement is wrong in the Malaysian context. Thanks for pointing out. In fact I have written about it at the link below.

http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/forum/600023703.jsp

I guess the Malaysian market is not an efficient market as compared to the US market.

2013-10-21 11:42

kcchongnz

So in comparison, icap did very badly against the unit trusts for the last 5 years. So don't think TTB is infallible.

2013-10-21 11:43

bsngpg

KC大佬：I knew the word "half past six" may offend many. I
wrote it with purpose to attract people to read the high risk assessment by Icap. That's all. Do not mean to offend anybody here.

2013-10-21 11:44

kcchongnz

Posted by houseofordos > Oct 21, 2013 11:24 AM | Report Abuse

If the fund's assets are marked to market then is 20% discount to NAV justified ? Dont really understand this close ended fund... because in most open ended fund NAV = unit price..

That is the difference between CEF and OEF. The assets of CEF is made up of cash and quoted shares mainly. Its share price depend on supply and demand, and not based on the share value (NAV).

Is 20% discount reasonable? You tell me.

2013-10-21 11:48

bsngpg

各位大佬：得罪了。对不起。謝謝。Thank you.

2013-10-21 11:49

iafx

sigh... 1 more thing, ttb explanation of icap stagnant fund is to go global, so global market is safe? think about it. if it is about 5 - 10 - 20 years from now, anyone can talk anything bro.

clearly ttb is making back door for himself, he is under pressure to perform better than his mouth & paper value. again, don't fool by words via media, u never know what's happen behind the closed door fun.

is it no other option in the market? think about it.

2013-10-21 11:57

kcchongnz

bsngpg, you offend nobody. You have expressed your own opinion. Your opinion is always 忠言, worthy of listening to.

I don't think TTB one is 忠言. I kind of agree that he was using an excuse to mask his under-performance. TTB is not a humble person like you.

Actually it is nothing wrong to admit some mistakes he has made for the under-performance. But he chooses to put down his critics, like what he did to Lexey Partners who tried to do something good for all the shareholders in the last saga.

2013-10-21 11:57

houseofordos

Posted by kcchongnz > Oct 21, 2013 11:48 AM | Report Abuse

Posted by houseofordos > Oct 21, 2013 11:24 AM | Report Abuse

If the fund's assets are marked to market then is 20% discount to NAV justified ? Dont really understand this close ended fund... because in most open ended fund NAV = unit price..

That is the difference between CEF and OEF. The assets of CEF is made up of cash and quoted shares mainly. Its share price depend on supply and demand, and not based on the share value (NAV).

Is 20% discount reasonable? You tell me.

I would say its not justified. Furthermore, if he s holding a lot of cash now. then the discount is further unjustified since volatility of the NAV is less... Maybe ICAP should just distribute a 20% dividend to even it out :)

2013-10-21 11:58

kcchongnz

house, fully agree with you. Instead of TTB holding my cash, I prefer to have the control of my cash. Don't forget, the cash he holds shareholders have to pay 2-3% in management expense ratio each year.

But again whose interest he is looking after, yours or his? After distributing that dividend to you, he has less asset under management and hence less management fees.

That is why icap never pay dividend until the last one.

2013-10-21 12:02

houseofordos

ICAP is probably not bound to any min equity exposure rules like most other funds. The up side of that is that more freedom and flexibility. The down side is that it leads to market timing by fund manager which may cause underperforamcne. For funds with min equity exposure, managers are forced to maintain a min allocation of equities, this reduces market timing and leaves the timing to investors themselves while manager focus on staying invested.

2013-10-21 12:08

newyorkng

The problem with investing in a closed-ended fund is that the fund managers have the power to make all the calls. They do not have to worry about redemption. As long as the funds exceed issue price then the fund managers can virtually stop working and fall asleep. The fund managers still get one % of the fund value when the fund is holding lot of cash or otherwise. Looking at Icap now, at the end of the day, the fund manager will do better than the unit holders.

2013-10-21 12:14

Avocado_C

KCChong, I realised that you talk a lot about the companies you invested in instead of the market outlook, which is consistent with your comments about TTB. Based on what I read from the media, TTB talks a lot of about the economy and outlook, rather than the investments he made except I remembered he said his fund (not ICAP though), invested in Tiffany & Co seeing the demand for luxury goods from China ppl.

I am just curious ... I am sure you read the daily news (?), people have been talking about bubble economy and the crashes. I know you don't believe in "timing the market". But, are you not concern at all? Won't you adjust your portfolio accordingly?

2013-10-21 12:20

iafx

http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/business-news/259276-fbm-klci-to-trade-up-to-1820-level-before-budget-2014-announcement.html

2013-10-21 12:34

kcchongnz

Avocado, let me ask you some questions to your question.
1) Is the market that grossly overvalued now?
2) How is it compared to the crazy second board market in the mid 1990s?
3) How is the market compared to the internet craze in the late 1990s.
4) How is the market compared to the 1987 markets, 1929, etc?

This is what a very famous investor Mark Howard said about macro economic thingy,

“We don’t know what lies ahead in terms of the macro future. Few people if any know more than the consensus about what’s going to happen to the economy, interest rates and market aggregates. Thus, the investor’s time is better spent trying to gain a knowledge advantage regarding ‘the knowable’: industries, companies and securities. The more micro your focus, the great the likelihood you can learn things others don’t.” Focusing on the simplest possible system (an individual company) is the greatest opportunity for an investor since a company is understandable in a way which may reveal a mispriced bet. Howard Marks puts it simply: “We don’t make macro bets.”

2013-10-21 12:41

kcchongnz

猜股市如抓黄鳝
Mon, 01 Oct 2007
“股市还会起吗？”
这是我最常被问到的问题。
我的回答一律是“不知道”。
我知道询问者会感到失望，甚至心里还会抱怨。
他们认为我自私，明明是知道的，却不肯跟他们分享预测股市动向的心得。
实际上，“不知道”是我最诚实、最诚恳的答复。
我确实不知道明天，下个月或明年股市会怎样，我也不认为有谁有这样的本领。
如果我真的知道的话，我一定乐于跟大家分享，就好像我乐于跟大家分享我的基本面投资心得
一样。
心得犹如井水
心得，犹如井水。
你无论打了多少桶水，井水都不会减少。
心得，绝对不会因与人分享而减少。我又何必“深藏不露”？
在我学习股票投资的初期，我也好像千千万万的股友那样，认为只要能准确地预测股市或个别
股项的起落，我就非发不可。
所以，我把重点放在预测股市上。
我花了很多时间去读有关图表和时机（TIMING）的书。
我跟股市老将交换抓“时机”的心得。
我也通过各种管道，探听消息，我当时认为，消息灵通，是投资致胜之道。
但是都没有用。
我在股市中赚了又亏，亏了又赚，在投资路上撞撞跌跌了几年，一结算，财富不增反减。
更甚的是，在这期间内，内心的焦虑，精神上的压力，使我精疲力倦。
我发现我根本是在浪费时间。
我开始彻底检讨我的投资策略，大量阅读投资大师的著作，吸收他们的投资智慧。
我终于“悟道”了。
“我找到了”是我当时的感觉。
研究公司基本面
我不再猜测股市，而把全部的时间和精力，花在基本面的研究上。
从此以后，我再也没有回头。
摒弃猜测股市，全力以赴研究个别公司的基本面，为我带来了意想不到的成果，因此时间愈久，
信“道”之心愈坚。
更重要的，是我不再为股价的波动而烦恼，我可以安心工作，生活过得舒适愉快。
其实，我所悟出来的道理，一点也不新鲜，甚至可以说是老生常谈。
真的是又老土，又简单。
那就是“买股票就是买公司的股份”。
“买股份就是参股做生意”。
“所以，公司比股市重要”。
长期投资累积财富
“投机不可能累积财富，只有长期投资才能”。
实际上，这些老土的道理，是前人投资智慧的结晶。
无数的人，殚精竭虑，“发明”新的方法，都没有一样经得起时间的考验。
我从此不再浪费时间去猜测股市的动向了。
第一、是因为股市根本是不可预测的。
第二、是股票投资赚钱根本不需要靠预测股市。
股市有如黄鳝，浑身滑溜溜，你根本无法抓住它。
一个曾经做过鱼贩的老同学告诉我抓黄鳝的“秘诀”。
他说：“黄鳝吃软不吃硬，所以只能‘托’，不能用力‘抓’。”
要把黄鳝由水桶中抓起，放进塑胶袋中卖掉，最有效的方法，是以手掌，轻轻地把黄鳝由水中
托起，托的位置要适当，然后慢慢地、不慌不忙地把它送进塑胶袋中。
不能用力捏，否则，它感到不舒服，就会挣扎，你无论多么用力，都会从你手中溜走。
抓黄鳝，紧不如松，快不如慢，刚不如柔，巧不如拙。
股市也一样，你盯得太紧，企图预测它的动向，它偏偏跟你作对。
许多股友，千方百计，企图“捕捉”股市的起落，结果都徒劳无功，就好像用力抓黄鳝，始终
抓不住一样。
焦点集中公司业绩
最好的方法，是远离股市，不太在意它的波动，把焦点集中在公司的业绩表现上，反而更易
“驯服”股市。就好像轻轻托起，反而更能将黄鳝“制服”一样。
股市的波动，就好像黄鳝的不断蠕动一样，是正常的，不必去理会它。
采取反向策略，低价买进好股，就不动如山。
只要公司业绩不断上升，就不卖。
不要理会股市短期的波动，不必担心你的股票不会起，因为当公司赚钱越来越多时，股价必然
会同步上升。
股市于我何有哉？
此之谓投资正道。

2013-10-21 13:37

ProfitMan

Kcchongnz, TTB has been called as a hero and the oracle of Bursa by people? This is something new to me. He is well known and I don't dislike him, but to me, he is just another analyst and fund manager. Not someone I would sit up and trade based on his recommendation. Not the Soros, Buffet type of personality.

2013-10-21 13:39

Avocado_C

Mr Chong, I try to answer your questions to my question:

1) Just because that KLCI is made of the 30 index companies and with P/E of 15-16, doesn't mean that all other companies are overpriced.

2) Ohh, I still remember, when I was a kid back in the 90's, every Chinese new year, my parents reminded me not to wish the aunties & uncles "san nin fai lok" (happy new year in Cantonese), instead I should greet "san nin fai hei" (new year fast rise). It was quite crazy back then, my mom would stay in front of the TV whole day to check share prices (I couldn't remember what was that service called already).

3) During the dot.com era, whenever I read the US market news, it was always which and which internet/tech stock IPO, debut with how many percent increase.

4) After the 87 stock market crash, my dad knew his company is going to sack him, so he left before it happened. After that my dad started his own business with borrowings from my grandparents, we didn't have family trip for many years until mid 90's...
I don't know how was it like in the 1929, but people called it the great depression, so it must be really bad.

Oh no ... I think what I replied on Q2 & Q3 sounds a bit like our property market now.

2013-10-21 13:43

kcchongnz

Posted by Avocado_C > Oct 21, 2013 01:43 PM | Report Abuse

Mr Chong, I try to answer your questions to my question:

1) Just because that KLCI is made of the 30 index companies and with P/E of 15-16, doesn't mean that all other companies are overpriced.


Like like like!

2013-10-21 13:47

kcchongnz

Hey bsngpg, somebody said I was angry with you because you "peca u punya lobang", was I?

Posted by iafx > Oct 21, 2013 04:01 PM | Report Abuse
talking about expert:
Posted by kcchongnz > Oct 21, 2013 11:42 AM | Report Abuse
bsngpg, my statement about 75%-80% of the funds under-performed the market is for the research from the US market. My statement is wrong in the Malaysian context. ... bra ... bra... bar...
I guess the Malaysian market is not an efficient market as compared to the US market.
see Blog: [转帖] 陳鼎武：美債風險‧馬股漲勢欠穩

Posted by iafx > Oct 21, 2013 04:39 PM | Report Abuse
next time copied U.S statement, other investor statement, make sure u understood what is it about, don't wait 4 ppl pica u punya lobang then get angry. hahahaa...

Or was it him who was "angry" with his deep sighing?

Posted by iafx > Oct 21, 2013 11:57 AM | Report Abuse
sigh... 1 more thing, ttb explanation of icap stagnant fund is to go global, so global market is safe? think about it. if it is about 5 - 10 - 20 years from now, anyone can talk anything bro.
clearly ttb is making back door for himself, he is under pressure to perform better than his mouth & paper value. again, don't fool by words via media, u never know what's happen behind the closed door fun.
is it no other option in the market? think about it.

but don't worry about him. Compared with your knowledge, he is really like 小巫見大巫

2013-10-21 17:12

bsngpg

KC Chong : why don't you go back to FeiBon for "Fun of Catching Quick Moving Elephant" and “LS”.

2013-10-21 17:54

bsngpg

We are waiting for you.

2013-10-21 17:55

aunloke

Fund managers collecting high management fee have the duty to perform, they cannot just collect the fee and not taking any action just because market is weak.

2013-10-21 19:48