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[转帖] 长期持有? ~乡下佬~

Tan KW
Publish date: Fri, 19 Sep 2014, 11:15 PM
Tan KW
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Good.

 

Friday, September 19, 2014 

 
时常我们都听到高手们说: 如果在 xx 年前,投资 A 公司 xxxx 股,现在已经有 $x,xxx,xxx 了。

是不是很熟悉呢?

我想有接触股票的投资者都听过类似的话,当然,我也不例外,当我刚接触股票时,第一位告诉我这些故事的是冷眼前辈,如果我没记错,应该是他的三十年股票投资心得里面的其中一篇文章。

老实说,新手的我看到这些故事,心情是很激动的,因为从来都没有人告诉过我,原来致富是那么容易的,拿几千块来买一个股,锁在保险箱放着几十年就可以了。

是不是真的那么简单?

答案: "不是"。

当我深入研究各种股票投资法后,我越来越发现以上的故事是很难做到的,我认为要做这个故事的主人,你需要有三个因素,那就是 “在对的的时候,买入对的股票,再长期持有”。

大部分人都把重点放在 “长期持有” 上,而我认为重点反而应该放在 “对的股” 上,大马少说也有接近整千家上市公司,如何在这堆上市公司里选到值得长期持有的才是最难的部分。

就算是你买到了对的公司,也具备长期持有的耐力,但你买错了时机,那你的回酬一定大幅的减少。

要做到以上三个因素,谈何容易啊 !!!

高手们都喜欢用这些故事来鼓励和激励我们,他们的确实是用心良苦,在现实的操作和运用上,我想应该没有多少人能做到。

可能做到的,我想,应该只有以下的两种人:

(1)对股票不怎么认识,幸运的买入了好的公司,然后放着忘记了
(2)对股票超有认识,是高手中的高手。

我这个说法并不是没有根据的,如果有人有时间,不妨做一个研究,在同期,大马所有上市公司里,有多少只股能做到故事里的佳绩?

我估计不会超过 5%。 


注: 能在整千家公司里选到 5%,还不是高手中的高手?哈哈哈。

历史终归是历史,展望未来才是最重要的,就算你以前真的做到了故事的主人,那太好了,我有事相求,你能不能告诉我,哪一家公司,现在买入,几十年后能让我致富的?

~乡下佬~
19.09.2014


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Discussions
7 people like this. Showing 18 of 18 comments

bsngpg

说真话的一篇最现实文章。一定要仔细读好,然后牢牢记住。这才是真真的股市投资。超贊,

2014-09-20 10:51

kwl8888

Actually I also don't believe in long term holding.
I will take profit when have chance.
Can buy back anytime after sold if the price drops.

2014-09-20 10:55

GoldenShares

agreed

2014-09-20 14:54

bsngpg

I do not believe in fairy tale portfolio and overall return. Nevertheless, in reality, one or two holdings can really deliver fairy tale return but this is very unlikely the case for overall portfolio.

Said that, I do believe strongly in long term holding strategy, which allows me to catch one or two fairies along some lemons.

2014-09-20 14:58

Wave

I am totally agreed on this article wrote by uncle village. In my dept heart I have a right counters (LPI and Public bank)for long term investment, and I have endurance to hold them but... I need a "right and golden time" to buy in! The right/golden time is next economy crisis. Currently only YTLREIT in my portfolio categorize as long term investment.

2014-09-20 16:07

estan3874

Long term investment is not really suitable for the retail investor. Just like what the author mention, at the right time, the right stock and the right price. Sometime the right company will turn bad after a few years.For the long term investment, the guru told us, we are invest in the company grow, and not speculate on the market price. But, we are only the retail investor with the small amount of money. We are not even have a chance to get the direct first hand info, not even can have a chance to visit the Director and having a interview to know more detail about what is their future plan. Then how we going to justify is the company will have the long term grow as what we expecting after we doing our so call "homework". Those homework is all based on the history data. There is lot of cases, the company have a very good pass year record, but just a sudden, they come out with an unexpected result, the share price will drop sharply. Zhulian is one of it, recently Johotin also. So what is the different between the so call long term investor or value investor (here is refering to those retail investor with the believe of buy and hold method, not for the institution or big boy like cool eye or Koon). I always read lot of those so call value investor critics the trader (investing based on price movement) is a speculator. But I found out there no different at all, all of the retailer in the stock market is mostly is a speculator, one is speculate on the next company result another one is speculate on the next price movement. So those so call the value investor and always showing their homework on analyst the financial statement is all talk cock. IF YOU DO NOT HAVE A SENSE OF BUSINESS, AND DO NOT KNOW WHAT IS THE PARTICULAR INDUSTRY FUTURE OUTLOOK. THEN YOU JUST INVEST INTO THE "GOOD FUNDAMENTAL COMPANY" BASED ON THE SO CALL THE HOMEWORK OF THE PASS YEAR RESULT. YOU ALSO ARE SPECULATOR.

2014-09-20 23:24

stockoperator

In my view Owning a good piece of Business knowing that its value will grow over times even at fair price is a good investment.

2014-09-21 02:34

bsngpg

Hi es: very interesting. I like it. Thks.

2014-09-21 08:23

bsngpg

Hi Stock: good biz not only figures. Yes, I like it. Thks.

2014-09-21 08:24

Peter Wee

可能做到的,我想,应该只有以下的两种人:

(1)对股票不怎么认识,幸运的买入了好的公司,然后放着忘记了。
(2)对股票超有认识,是高手中的高手。

My friend is the first type. He bought redtone 3 years back when he is 1st year in uni at RM0.18. Is people asked him to go and buy. Thats why he go maybank to open a trust account. Till today he achieved approximate 450% return and yet he still don't know whats the company doing. He never bother to see at all. Is this luck? haha.

2014-09-21 09:34

stockoperator

Mentality and Purpose will make the different. Invest like you buy property. In property it is location while in stocks it is Business Value. 20 years would be a fairy tale story.

If you invest Rm50k in either one of the company such as Public, Nestle, Utd Plant, LPI, Maybank..20 years ago, i believe the value of stock price plus div would be more than Rm1 mil by Now.

2014-09-21 11:20

stockoperator

Why long term holding? friends, we really need the Help of long term compounding at the later stage of investment.

2014-09-21 11:23

stockoperator

well as Bsngpg said, some lemon some million dollar stocks. Well good enough.

Don't give up and lose faith because of lemons or afraid of lemons or all kinds lemon stories all around you.

Those who cant make it will tell you Not even try, fair or not?

2014-09-21 11:28

bsngpg

PB, LPI, MBB, Nestle turn into faires in 20-30yrs by consistent and aggressive growth. Mahsing for the last few yrs has demonstrated the same trend. Will Mahsing able to continue the trend for 20 yrs? I have a dream that Mahsing turns fairySing in 20 years and me too.

Stephen Chow quoted that a person without dream is not different from salted fish. Do you agree in sunny Sunday.

2014-09-21 12:24

inwest88

bsnpng - how are you in this sunny Sunday. may your FairySing wish come true in the not too distant future. Cheers !

2014-09-21 15:12

bsngpg

hi inwest88: your good words warm my Sunday. I am blessed in knowing you. Thks god.

2014-09-21 16:03

Ant

想翻多倍,幸运是理所当然的,但个人觉得只有具成长潜能的公司才有机会,和能够持一家公司的股票多过三年的。我想很少。

2014-09-21 20:24

jeckcw

2 words from warran buffet
sustainability (sustainability/organic growth and financially self sustain)
scalability

2014-09-22 10:38

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