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The Time Has Finally Arrived? - Bursa Dummy

Tan KW
Publish date: Mon, 13 Oct 2014, 10:35 PM
Tan KW
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Good.

 

Monday, 13 October 2014 

 
Last few trading days were disaster for many stock market investors. Some took profit and wait for opportunity, some cut loss to protect their capital, some hold their stocks tight despite loss or massively shrunken paper profit, some went in to try their luck.
 
From the peak in July at around 1890 points, KLCI has dropped to 1797 points today. It is about 100 points drop but by percentage, it is a merely 5% drop.
 
Nevertheless, this is enough to see blood everywhere on the trading floor.
 
There is no doubt a correction is in the making. Whether it is a minor or major correction, or a bear arrival is still remain to be seen.
 
By definition, an entry to bear market is represented by a drop of at least 20% in indices over at least 2 months. 
 
This 20% is just an entry to bear market. So when the bear takes charge, the drop can be much more than that.
 
Just look at how much damage current 5% drop so far has done to your portfolio. Can you imagine the time when the market drop 30% to 50%?


       Small or Big one?
 
 
Of course I am not exempted from being wounded. I did not do any transaction when the market started to head south in October, apart from adding Huayang before the big drop.
 
The table below shows how my portfolio was affected so far. For those who suffer the same fate as me, hopefully you can be consoled a little bit after looking at my portfolio's performance.
 
 
  30 Sep 13 Oct Loss (%)
GTRONIC 4.68 4.08 12.8
HUAYANG 2.34 2.16 7.7
INARI 3.23 2.65 18.0
LATITUD 3.80 3.72 2.1
MATRIX 3.25 2.86 12.0
SCIENTX 7.44 7.16 3.8
TAMBUN 2.57 2.15 16.3
YOCB 1.02 0.995 2.5
 
 
Two of my heavyweight holdings Inari (-18%) and Tambun (-16.3%) fell the most. Luckily Latitude still manage to hang on well, so far.
 
The magnitude of decline in Matrix (-12%) actually breaks my glasses a bit...
 
I dare not calculate precisely how many percentage of overall loss so far in October. Just stay tune on the first of November for this "spectacular" portfolio review.
 
Actually I'm not too worried so far, as overall I'm still in green this year.
 
The most painful thing to swallow is the lack of cash to shop around in this period of time. Worse still, I might be forced to sell shares just to meet my anticipated extra expenses this month!
 
People might say that why don't you sell all those shares, keep the cash and buy back at much cheaper price later. 
 
One of my sell criteria is "when bear market arrive". However, I can't be sure whether the bear is around the corner, as KLCI only drops 5%.
 
To mark an entry into a bear market, KLCI have to fall below 1500 points. Looks like it is still a long way to go. Investors should have a plan of what action to take now.
 
I don't think "Cold Eye" and Warren Buffet will sell during a bad market. Am I right?
 
If I can time the market with confidence, I will sell. However, I can't do it at this stage.
 
I do not make the decision recklessly. Whatever I do, I will take full responsibility. 
 
No matter what is the outcome, there will be new experience and lesson learned.
 

 

Discussions
9 people like this. Showing 18 of 18 comments

mollyganz48

never say die.get up and stand tall again after a fall.

2014-10-13 22:50

1007lsl

You are not alone.

2014-10-13 23:00

gauss

You are not alone, I'm believe what I investing for...

2014-10-13 23:12

aa111111

yes.every sen we invest is our own money.NO RETREAT.stand up all

2014-10-13 23:18

stanleysee

True, nobody would like to put their money into sea. We are here to make money.

2014-10-13 23:33

ss20_20

The founder or major shareholders of solid fundamental companies would not sell their shares too.

2014-10-13 23:40

matakuda

I lost some 15% over the past week, sitting here doing nothing, just watching. Food for thoughts: if you were not selling, I' was not selling, then who were the ones did the selling?

2014-10-14 01:02

alphajack

if you sell now and realize your loss you will lose out later when market rebounds..If you are invested in good companies with thorough research done..hold enough provided you have a safe haven of cash to act as an option. Sell now and you will have a hard time making profits for some time as you need to make back your losses.

2014-10-14 01:10

fortunebullz

Relax! The roller coasters probable ended! Looks like irrational sentiments already subdue tonight! Cherry picking tomorrow! Bad thing is out of shopping bags! so sad!

2014-10-14 01:45

CoMBoFisT

Tambun and Inari seems like having great discount. Thanks. Wednesday morning...

2014-10-14 02:32

miapancho

so far this year we did not have correction,, it s ok it s healthy for the market..actually market is lofty overvalue,, not only malaysian market but also global.. better feel the pain now, then later it could be worst..i am still holding the stocks. this time i think there will be a stronger correction,, because so long we did not had one... that doesn t mean market is going to plunge head down.. so be patience.. look at US DOLLARS export related counters,,if US DOLLAR is going to be stronger in going forward, then slowly we can buy in this counters...another is ebola probelm,,is going to push glove counters... so just watch carefully..be patience it s not the end of the world yet

2014-10-14 07:34

leno

you are not alone ... the onli one who is alone is LENO ... BOOOOO CHOOOOOW CCCCCCCCCCC AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA !!!!

2014-10-14 08:59

hanting999

Leno alone? My foot. Somehow reading his works makes me want to go along with him. BOH CHOW SEE KIAW KIAW AAHHHHHHH!!!!!!!

2014-10-14 12:19

Raymond Tiruchelvam

tan kw.... u shd consider options. I dont deal in options and futures... but i have to read about them in order to pass my CFA exams this Dec .. errrrgh. But in options, one does not need to tie down capital like what is done in shares.... and you can punt either ways, call - up or put - down... so in any market condition is a good time to buy and sell. The best part about options are .... the most you can lose is how much? well... zero... because you choose NOT to exercise the option, and your loss is purely limited to the option cost.... transaction cost. Just a thot....

2014-10-14 20:25

erkongseng

Chance to collect teoseng 2,10

2014-10-14 20:49

Kevin Wong

Only speculators worries during mart corrections.
Investors worries only when market stays in bear teritory for many years.
For example; if a investor had been fully invested just before the dotcom crash of Feb. 2000, in good & quality stocks like IOI, F&N, Amway, Shell, Maybank, Tan Chong...in his/her portfolio - they will be still making lots of$$$ today, even though having to endure another even bigger crash of 2008/9!

2014-10-15 14:46

cariayam

Gd article

2014-10-15 19:01

deechan

Can still buy Inari?

2014-10-15 19:26

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