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SKPETRO – Fundamental Analysis (12 Apr 2016) - L. C. Chong

Tan KW
Publish date: Tue, 12 Apr 2016, 11:08 PM
Tan KW
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Excel – Download the analysis file

Latest Financial – Q4 2016 Financial Report (25 Mar 2016)

FY16 Q4 Results Highlight:

  • Despite reported FY16 net profit sinking into the red at –RM791.6m, SKPETRO’s normalised net profit excluding provisions on oil & gas properties, investments and other non-core items managed to remain above >RM1b. The large chunk of the provisions was from the Energy division (net RM1.1b), followed by Drilling division (RM400m) and Engineering and Construction division (RM203m).
  • SKPETRO’s FY16 operating cash flow rose to RM2.7b from RM1.8b a year earlier. Total cash pile was close to RM2b compared to RM1.2b a year earlier. This is also translate into free cash flow of RM2.17b in FY16. In addition, the company has started reducing the principal on its borrowings by repaying a net RM650m in FY16. Management guided that the group’s total borrowings are expected to reduced moving forward.
  • 23 Dec 2015 – SKPETRO’s current orderbook as at 31 Oct 2015 stood at approximately RM21b. volume of orders slows down due to poor oil prices
  • SKPETRO conduct quarterly reviews (previous: annual) on oil price assumption and reserves for their O&G portfolio. This shows a good corporate governance

Valuation:

  • In my opinion, fair value of SKPETRO range from 2.5 to 2.7 (Uncertainty Risk: LOW to MEDIUM).

Going Forward:

  • Major concerns – Low crude oil selling price, weak orderbook replenishment, further asset writedowns, and reduced drilling fleet utilisation coupled with declining daily-charter-rates.
  • I will continue to hold and accumulate SKPETRO as I believe that SKPETRO will be able to overcome the challenges ahead.

At the time of writing, I owned shares of SKPETRO.

 

https://lcchong.wordpress.com/2016/04/12/skpetro-fundamental-analysis-12-apr-2016/

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1 person likes this. Showing 16 of 16 comments

Desa20201956

normalised net profit for SK Petrol is a dangerous word.

2016-04-12 23:45

Hiu Chee Keong

i bought few days ago at 1.75, today oil rise above 42usd, i will have opportunity to sell it 1.95. If april 17 oil freeze fail, then i will buy back, if success, never mind, i am ok with 10%+ in a week :D

2016-04-13 07:58

Mohd Fahmi Bin Jaes

accumulate prepare to sell

2016-04-13 08:00

MillionInMaking

Good article

2016-04-13 11:41

007

This L.C must be holding a lot, and very stupid to hold and even accumulate or he is too smart trying to ask people to buy while he is awaiting to sell.

2016-04-13 11:46

Mohd Iqbal

survival of the fittest.. the best oil & gas stock..

2016-04-13 11:46

007

oil price is a global commodity, many oil companies already went bankrupt if the low oil price drag to next year, oil companies in Malaysia will be next.

2016-04-13 14:11

speakup

Careful. this is Tun Mahathir son counter.

2016-04-13 15:17

Desa20201956

Osv charges drop two thirds.....

Those who can diversify away this business will survive.

The only strong OG counters are KNM and Coastal.

2016-04-13 15:22

speakup

najib attacking Tun M's sons. First Kedah MB. Next SKPetro!

2016-04-13 15:42

007

deluem is a better bet, skpetro lost a lot of money

2016-04-13 17:29

mamatede

I don think the current price is still fair, the only reason the interest in buying this counter is to push the price up with the hope for oil recovery. The recent oil crash has left many oil producer bulimic.. Example like Venezuela, even if the oil recovers to USD 60, i don think they will embark on large scale capex, given their trauma in the recent crash that left their economy in recession. Whats more in Malaysia, Petronas is taking a big reduction in capex that will trim down their work force as well as spending and bring back their profit ratio to a more respected figure if they are to continue staying relevant in this industry.

Also with the prospect of shale producer coming online once oil touching $55 above, I doubt the OPEC members will come out with any reduction soon... Disclaimer: I might be wrong.. hehe

2016-04-14 00:42

Mohd Fahmi Bin Jaes

the difference between fa and reality price

2016-04-20 15:09

speakup

as long as najib is PM and Tun M son is major shareholder of SKPETRO, i would not touch this SKPETRO.

2016-04-20 15:11

speakup

political risk is too high considering that najib & Tun M not in good terms.

2016-04-20 15:11

Atma Vell Pil

Wait n watch.....

2016-05-14 19:35

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