I think Mable needs to rethink the concept of profitability.

Something is considered profitable when the revenues increase, earnings increase. The income generated from operations becomes able to pay for the debt interest loans and borrowings.

When you cut off your left leg or your right arm to sell to creditors, or you borrow money from your family to continue your business it does not mean you become profitable.

It just means delaying the inevitable.

How much is organic growth? How much money is generated organically from daily business operations?

If I sell of my right arm to pay creditors, for a while I seen flush with cash. But if I can only work with 1 arm, do you think I will be as productive as my younger days?

Argue for the sake of arguing. Many ways of investing, many ways of improving economy not necessary with speculation on property. You try and go buy Singapore HDB flat la. If not for HDB, Singapore house pricing long ago become unaffordable.

Invest yes, no problem. Feed the housing bubble which will only buy Malaysians in the long run, NO!

THAT'S WHY IDIOTS LINE STOCKRAIDER WHO ONLY SEE SHORT TERM WILL NEVER BE RICH. ONLY BUY LOUSY COMPANIES LIKE SAPURANRG AND THINK OF RM3 IN 3 YEARS 3 MONTHS. TALK COCK, NO BRAIN? YOU ARE THE ONE WHO DON'T THINK PROPERLY. ONE DAY IN THE FUTURE WHEN YOU KIDS GROW UP AND ASK YOU FOR 3 MILLION TO BUY A FLAT, THEN YOU WILL KNOW THE COST OF YOUR " LET FOREIGNERS INVEST IN HOUSING" REMARKS.

BRAINLESS OFFICE BOYS WILL NEVER LEARN THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN INVESTING AND SPECULATING.


>>>>>>>>>>>

Don forget if people have monies....they can buy anyway in the world not necessary from msia mah....thus do not be too proud...we should welcome them to invest here loh....!!

Spoken like a city harvest pastor.

>>>>>>>>>


Posted by calvintaneng > Jun 28, 2019 4:19 PM | Report Abuse

Bj Corp Calvin bought at 12 sen in year 2006 and sold above Rm1.50 for 1000% gain

Then buy Call for Bj Corp below 50 sen

Now bj corp at 26 srn just add more

After downcycle over bj corp shall move in upcycle again

Calvin loves you all

Love
Love
Love

This is how stupid middle class people with low class thinking works. They only think about themselves. Unwanted excess properties?? What does that even mean? The only reason why it is unwanted is because no one can afford to buy it.

Why don't you ask why build expensive properties in the first place?

Brainless office boys who got lucky aleays think in mindless ways.

Housing should not be a source of speculation. The are many ways to improve Malaysia economy. Why use a method which takes advantage of the poor?

>>>>>>>>

People come here to pick up the unwanted excess properties that will help the msian economy, why talk childish cock & oppose it leh ??

Over a long time TALAMT has shown a huge long term drop in value.

This is how fake Christians lie to individuals, they mix truth with lies together so you don't know where it starts and where it ends.

Long term?

What was TALAMT price 2 years ago, 5 years ago and 10 years ago?

Calvin trying to sound wise by parroting been Graham but everyone know Graham will never buy lousy stocks like this.

SHENZHEN OPENED ITS DOOR TO FDI AND TODAY SHENZHEN PROPERTY PRICES CAN RIVAL HONG KONG'S

This is good only for housing speculators like Calvin from Singapore. For the rest who don't have a house, you can ask those living in Hong Kong how much they have to pay to have their first home.

How many houses do you need? You can only sleep in one, stay in one bed a night. By exposing Malaysia to unnecessary increase of a basic need like shelter we are causing grief to the future population for the sake of speculators like Calvin.

How would Singapore like it when the water tender ends, and Johor puts up the clean water bids to the highest bidder? Open tender for clean water to bidders from Indonesia, Hong Kong, China? Imagine if every Singaporean has to pay rm1.50 for every liter of water they consume from Johor?

Cry father cry mother then?

This program is to open up housing for more speculation, and cost outweigh the benefits to the public. Those Chinese are not emigrating it staying in Malaysia. They consider it an investment, to sell in the future or rent out at high prices to those that need a shelter over their heads. Would you enslave those who cannot afford to buy their own house but must rent at ever higher prices?

And I thought Calvin was a Christian.

Imagine if his grandfather wasn't smart enough to set HDB housing for the population, but let China build, develop and sell everything.

Greedy harvest church pastors the whole lot of you.

You should be ashamed of yourself.

Wonderful! But why do many anti Calvin supporters? Probably because he tells the best lies, lies mixed with a sliver of truth. He hides the failure which but many people who believed and followed into with him, and promotes only the winners.

I have started a 2019 portfolio to track his results. This is his 2019 promotions that you can keep track of and see his total promotions and results. And as he NEVER posts his position size or his portfolio percentage weightage, we shall have to assume he averages everything out fairly, and as he almost never tells you when he sells, trades or cut loss, we shall all assume he just closed his portfolio at end of the year and restarts.

https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/123029.jsp

I invite you to do the math. Put 100k into each stock Calvin promotes based on his blog articles, calculate you total return today with the share price changes.

This would give you Calvintaneng average yield, or the quality of his stock picks.

Then you will understand why so many people hate him. Perhaps Calvin should go to investlah forum and start drumming his philosophies there to save that forum?

Calvin is trying to make it sound as if he has single handedly saved I3 forum. Cleo clap clap!

Calvin is promoting ASB again.

TOP REASONS WHY ASB IS A SURE BUY (Calvin Tan Research) IT HAS FUTURE, PRESENT & PAST WEALTH
Author: calvintaneng | Publish date: Thu, 27 Jun 2019, 1:15 AM

https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/123029.jsp

Time to update another entry in Calvin tan investment portfolio.
In putting forth a stock to consider, one must contend with multiple hidden information:

1. The average quality of the writers stock pick, i.e average out all his winners + all his losers to get a good idea of his acumen. The secret has always been to learn from the mistakes, not gloat over the successes.

2. What is the writers exposure i.e is he frontloading, how big a percentage of his portfolio is in this stock, how much did he buy, what price did he start the position to gauge how honest he is and how much confidence he has in his pick. How much faith would you put in the writer if he considers a stock but puts ZERO dollars into it.

3. How in depth is his analysis, does he only promote the pros of a stock but fails to list a single one of the stocks downside? Be careful of those who are overtly optimistic.

City harvest pastors tell you very nice stories in front, but the backroom details is where the real money is made.


>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

/06/2019 8:09 AM
calvintaneng At least Calvin puts forth a stock for all to consider

Someone is trying to take undue credit by trying to appear as an expert investor.

This is his tracked portfolio with all his comments and subscriptions for this year.

https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/123029.jsp

Calvin will always be Calvin. He buys 50 stocks, but the point is even if some stocks gain 2000%, if you are unable to identify them clearly and concentrate your investments, your total return will still be a waste of time, as you will not have the foresight to put large concentrated capital into big bets.

I only have 6 stocks, gkent, PCHEM, STNE for this year, YINSON, QL, TOPGLOV which I held and kept buying and adding my position continuously for 10 years now.

Which would have the better performance, the one who has 50 stocks but only 50 lots in his 2000% return stocks? Or those who have 5 stocks, but has 50000 lots in the 2000% turn stocks.

That's why calvin will never tell you how much he put into those stocks, only his "returns".

He forever lives with the regret of not having the foresight and capability of judging investments and putting large capital behind his stocks, buy chooses to hide behind "diversification", or as Peter lynch puts it, diworsification.

Good luck with your TALAMT, uzma and protasco.

The lesson to learn from all of this is to never extrapolate too far out to use too many assumptions in making an investment choice.

If at all possible, it is always to be conservative and safe.

Start with real numbers, real figures and make assumptions from there.

Picking numbers out of newspaper reports and analyst presentations is a recipe for disaster.

Always remembered, downsides first before upsides.

In the absence real actual results from the power plant which is not currently up and running, the first assumptions is:


1. What if the plant runs into trouble and didn't get completed, what is the future of JAKS?
2. What if the plant gets completed and returns is half of worse projections, what is the future of JAKS?
3. What is the impact of construction delays and litigations long term?

Once we can work out with more certainty on the downsides, then and only then does it becomes prudent to start calculating your chickens before they are hatched.

Ok I forgive you. In fact I have heard the same conservative replies before from CFO. After pressing him then you will get a clearer answer. Thanks for bringing it up. Have a great week!

I think you are wrong. This figure is far lower than the worse case scenario provided by DK66.

Please stop spreading lies so people will panic and sell Jaks shares so you can buy more at lower prices.

>>>>>>>>>>>

Posted by edkfc > Jun 25, 2019 8:29 PM | Report Abuse

Rm80 to 100million is to Jaks

I deleted all my comments in this in depth analysis, especially upon receiving comments by i3Value which says I suka jaga tepi kain.

But now that the horses mouth has been proven true with a direct comment and reply from CFO and CEO where the annual return from the power plant will be around rm80-100 million per year to JAKS. I said it first here on this thread.

As this figure was told to me by the CFO himself previously, I would like to find out from DK66 if the numbers outed by CEO and CFO is accurate or false, as the numbers fall far below even the worse case scenario provided by DK66.

Question now is, how now brown cow? What is then the intrinsic value of JAKS now that we have a more accurate number from the powerplant... What other clear future growth triggers will change our valuation of JAKS?

>>>>>>>>>>>>
Under this model, Jaks' 40% sharing of profit will be around RM180m

Sorry for the late reply, a return follow up on my opinions.

I also term outside debt as rights issue, iculs, warrants, esos, basically anything that ties back to net profit per share in the long run. If return is greater than costs than obviously it is a good thing in the long run. However, borrowing costs are a fixed liability, while returns can be inconclusive.

2), imagine a company giving out 80% of its net profits as dividends. Where then would it be 5-10 years from now? How would it compete against is peers if it no longer has the means to defend itself? If Apple, Amazon, Google, Alibaba, even Uber and grab had started with a huge dividend policy, do you think they would have had a commanding position that is a monopoly on its own?

It is the age old question, do you have the cookie now? Or 2 cookies tomorrow.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>

1) Taking more outside debt sacrifice shareholder value? If return from borrowings great than the costs, it can't be right. This I believe is a typing error from you.

2) A company gives out high dividend usually end up in bad position? A bad position because share price drops? Are we talking about just capital gain, or dividend return is just unimportant and not part of the total return?

The real money in stock investment is in the waiting. Not in the buying. I will be preparing my latest quarterly report, just as soon as gkent and yinson announce results, should be end of this month.

What theedge said.

I'm about 90% sure they will sign the modec contract with Brazil this year. Meaning if all goes well, we will be looking at the first major contract for yinson in Brazil, at very nice terms. Their charter contract is 100k USD higher than the other competitor, but because of the lack of qualified parties, I believe it will still be awarded to YINSON in either case.

Hmm so dato Karim thinks kpower is a better investment than serba? But purebull says it is a good time to buy more serba dinamik shares? But then why is CEO and founder selling his own company shares to buy other companies?

My definition of good writing is something that make you think and allows you access to new mental models in attacking a problem.

In investment there is no such thing as no room for argument because essentially we are always predicting the future. It can always go in any direction.

As Howard marks puts it, doing investment analysis is to prepare all the likely possibilities for the future performance of a company and we base the analysis on what we think is the most likely one. Most times the analysis with the least assumptions will come true. But other times other possibilities may turn out instead, which makes investing so interesting.

I like David's article because his presentation of facts and analysis is very concise aka numbers= view of analysis. He doesn't extrapolate so much or make huge jumps in assumptions like choivo or Calvin tan.

He presents it in a less biased way ( which I fault myself especially on stocks which I have a position as I feel the need to defend myself from uneducated "attackers". But these days I find it is easy to differentiate investors who have done their research versus those who are just trolls like stockraider who are not in it to learn something new but to just push the point across.

In fact I think he is very accurate in the depiction of Pantech. It is a fair company. With conservative growth expectations.

>>>>>>>>

Posted by Ricky Yeo > Jun 24, 2019 8:21 AM | Report Abuse

My definition of good writing is accuracy of judgment, because it leaves no room for argument.

Rather than saying long term hold, I prefer the word long term monitor and ignore noise. Weaving in and out of stocks is a great strategy, but it works best when deploying small capital. With Pantech at 400m market cap, using 1% or 4 million to weave in an out could be far more difficult than one would think. Even with gkent I'm only using 1m of margin for my more speculative investment which I plan to see the results within a few years or so.

For small sums, I do agree. I used to do it quite often in the 90's where I could get 50-100% profit in a few stocks over the course of a few months/weeks/days. It was very exciting. The stress and depression from not understanding the underlying risk of my stocks and watching the rise and sudden crash of major stocks with wonderful accounting and seemingly good business fundamentals made me revaluate my understanding of margin of safety deeply.

As munger puts it, if we identify wonderful businesses, we just need to concentrate on those with growing addressable market and how much higher it will go up in the future, and identify if the price and is fair.

If we buy a fair business, not only do we need to know if we are buying it at a wonderful price, we also need to contend with cut loss, business deterioration, middle of the pack mentality, new competition.

I can appreciate that thinking. Why go jump over 7 foot poles when in the long run 1 foot poles work just as well. That is what I have learned. If I can find something with 90% chance of making 20% money, it is far easier and more comfortable than buying something with 50% chance of making 100% money, especially when you factor in compounding and access to deploy large capital.

Either that or I am lazy.

>>>>>>>>>>

Posted by soojinhou > Jun 23, 2019 10:56 PM | Report Abuse

I'm with Icon8888. Long term hold strategy can make money, weaving in and out of stocks can make even more.

I have never said other methods can work, as I am certainly the first one to say I have tried everything in more than 25 years of investing tragedy.

The only thing I can say is my method give me the least amount of stress, and the highest margin of safety in putting large capital to work.

Many roads lead to Rome. I just go there via the most comfortable method.

Some choose to fly Concorde high risk high reward.
Some choose to go by bus low risk low reward.
My method of there is such, is to evaluate risk, opportunity cost, cost of capital and then weigh it versus possibility of profit.

In other words, I look at how much money I can lose first, then decide how likely am I to make a profit.

For Pantech, it is more a case of opportunity costs for me. I don't think I will lose money with Pantech. But future returns compared with my other investments define my imperfect knowledge of the future.

Simple mental model, if I had 2 stocks to choose from Pantech versus PCHEM, if I had to hold longer term with borrowed money from ahlong( where being wrong results in death), which would I rather hold? PCHEM or Pantech. Fate of the universe on the line.

I think we both know the answer. Especially when I have no way of knowing how three market will fluctuate for Pantech short term.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>

So all methods can work, nobody can claim to have monopoly of wisdom

That is all I want to say

I prefer to think with facts. PCHEM has stated their revenue drop will recover next quarter and is due to schedule turnaround, thus is temporary not permanent. US dumping on East Asia is also a temporary and not a systemic issue. Plus when the PIC get completed the revenue will increase.

The led upgrade of streetlight is definitely true, as my subcon package of pan Borneo is using led 12m highway led bay( maincon have not awarded it to Success but instead to IQ group) Success has not won any major contracts and so far has no major announcements of any. But what is apparent is this qoq drop 88% and yoy 32% for success.

But of course, what you say can happen and success may win all 800,000 streetlight upgrade tender in Malaysia. Hopeful, but unlikely.

I try to keep an open mind all the time.

But I don't need to buy 6/55 toto to know that chances are I won't win lottery in this lifetime.
>>>>>>>>>>>

Why do you buy pchem ? The pertrochrm industry is facing overcapacity due to US dumping on east Asia and new plants completed

It is the same logic

Every investment decision is based on a set of assumptions. The less assumptions you need to make about an investment the clearer the possibility of it coming true.

How possible that Pantech will lose money? Obviously very low, as the management is competent and in an industry that has a niche requirement where price and quality and dependability converge.

How possible will Pantech increase its long term margin to +15% pat? Again very low. It is the nature of trading industry to have lower margins. Worse, once Petronas has tasted and used more lower cost discounts for products in their projects, it will be very difficult to charge then higher prices next time.

How possible is it for Pantech to increase its revenue by 10% or more next year? It is quite possible due to manufacturing picking up the slack from trading arm next year.

How possible is it for Pantech to double it's revenue by 100% or more next year? Impossible. It doesn't have another IPIC in the horizon, the competitors and market is becoming more competitive and streamline, and they don't have the factory space.

Businesses usually follow a consistent trajectory in the long term. Especially brick and mortar businesses. By comparing the trajectory of similar businesses you can have a more POSSIBLE idea of what will happen in the future.

Still miracles happen.

For me, I fully agree with Pantech valuation right now, and in fact believe that Pantech should be selling at a lower price than currently.
Especially when management has said that business next year will continue to be "challenging".

Instead of using or, fleet size, market share etc, the most important metric in investing in an airline is one which no one seems to pay attention to.

What is air Asia seat cost per mile (or km). It doesn't matter how big your market share is or how many planes you own. If your total seat cost per mile is lower than the competition and still profitable, then the whole system works.

Problem is when fuel and ancillary costs escalate and the selling price per seat doesn't make sense, then losses can loom far faster than one can imagine.

My flight from kk to kl cost me rm214 return ticket. It's definitely good for me and keeps a full flight, but is it a workable system for air Asia investors?

Obviously, that is not to show that the anti dumping plan was permanent, buy it serves to show why the revenue dropped so suddenly, and what the uncertain future will be for Pantech.

A simple thing. If China cannot export to USA anymore, where will it flood the markets next?

>>>>>>>>>>>
https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2019/06/18/pantech-resumes-exports-to-us/

The brands that are submitted by Pantech. These are the big ones, the seamless steel pipes used for o&g processes.
Nautic Steels (UK)
Kobe, NSSMC, Sanyo (Japan)
Posco (Korea)
Schoeller Bleckmann (Austria)
SMST (Germany)
Tubacex (Spain)

In my humble opinion, I find the sentence below and highlighted in black to have a misleading connotation that seems to imply that Pantech will have a monopoly with Petronas. This is far from the truth.

Make no mistake, pantech is just another trading house which added a manufacturing arm and a loss make hot dip galvanizing process which is at 50% capacity.

The trading of the above brands last this year did around 387 million will the manufacturing arm dropped a lot to 222 million. In a nutshell they did 607 million which is slightly lower than last year of 614, but with better margins which is pbt 61 million Vs 58 million last year.

Really profits are around 48 million with 15 million in dividends.

Here is the issue, 2 years ago they did 479 million with 29.7 million in net profit.

Basically the main reason for growth was due to turnaround process and PIC which will be completed soon.

Will there be further growth in the future for Pantech?

If you think carefully, trading houses carry other peoples products, meaning they are only able to complete supply in localised areas, aka export future is very limited. There will be appointed agents in other countries with licenses and heavy competition.

Aka major growth for trading is only in Malaysia market. After pic is complete any other major projects coming up? For replacement schedule how long do you think all these heavy duty seamless pipes last? Do you think it is a disposable product which need constant repair like aircon and chemicals? Or is it a structural process with long replacement cycles?

And if we go into manufacturing, Pantech is a butt weld fittings and long bend manufacturer which had a drop from 266 million to 222 million in revenues.

In the end local or no local Petronas is going in a different direction.

There is a perfectly concrete reason why investors are only willing to pay 8.74 PE for Pantech.

There is no economic or business advantage to a company that is only a trading house and a Manufacturing that does 6% PBT on specialized goods.

If there was something unique about Pantech, it would have grown much further, captured much bigger market share. As it is, evaluate the risks of the company, with another hidden bomb that can occur at any time.

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/us-trade-war-claims-first-malaysian-victim-%E2%80%94-pantech

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

12. Pantech is the <ONLY locally owned pipe supplying company> under the “Petronas Framework Agreement” - PANTECH provides pipes, valves and fittings not only used for the transportation of oil and gas, but also for the engineering and construction (E&C) phases of the fields (e.g. used as topside structures and jackets, subsea platform pillars, etc). “Petronas Framework Agreement” is to promote more local content, should there be any such ruling.

Hi can anyone point me out to the list of their contracts and projects sites? A major part is in middle east, I would like to have an idea where it is and what serba is doing there

Whenever I see Calvin tan post his blogs and buycalls I have the image of the pastor in the video. Looking so shifty with his beady eyes,. Fearful demeanor and you can literally smell the charm of a snake oil salesman.

The real Calvin tan might even be a gentleman and a nice Singaporean. But the online personality Calvin is line comrade dyatlov in the TV series Chernobyl, telling everyone to follow his instructions, and shooting down everybody who disagrees with him instead of verifying with his own eyes the status of the nuclear reactor.

>>>>>>>>

Tan Sri Chan has been popular for the wrong reasons especially in the property industry sector. He has more bodyguards than the prime minister!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tvaJbMPzRZc&feature=youtu.be

11/06/2019 5:47 AM

Young kids only consider how much money they make, not the risk which they take to make it.

What is the point of making 1000% if the next year you lose 60% of your portfolio and 20% the next year.

Give me the slow and steady company anytime which give me 15-20% growth every year consistently.

Why? If I know I won't be losing my capital, I can go big and put huge capital to work in one stock without worrying too much on the hidden traps.

But I guess things like this only become important when you start employing huge sums of money, your kids college fund, your wife's retirement money into businesses that you have no control over.

In either case modec has decided not to bid for both contracts, do one of them is sure to be won by YINSON.

First major charter contract in Brazil. And a huge one at that.

Judge risk first, then count your returns.
>>>>>>>>

Posted by OrlandoOIL > Jun 22, 2019 10:01 AM | Report Abuse

Looked at tis stock b4 d price never fall low enough for u to buy n after so so long now only it moves

Made more money from Hibiscus n Dayang

Pathetic fallacy

If Calvin knew what a sure thing was, he would have sold all his stocks and just held one stock. But his knowledge of stocks is poorly deficient.

That's why he holds many stocks and buys everything, he can't recognise good stocks, and he can't compare them well enough to with between holding a good stock and holding a sure thing.

Maybe you should think as well.


Posted by stockraider > Jun 19, 2019 4:23 PM | Report Abuse

Use your HEAD & think lah....!!

Performing better? Totally depends on your misguided concept of performing better. But please tell me ask about how your rm3 in 3 years 3 months is going to perform better with your concept of 1 cent increase every day for sape...

I don't think of share increases as performing better. I think of business fundamentals, business strategies and revenue earnings and the business itself as a core valuation of business performance.

I rarely listen to Mr market.

>>>>>>>>>>

Then why MNRB & Insas performing better this year than topgloves & QL leh ??

If you look at my online portfolio where I post my investments, I don't really worry much what the market price of yinson is, I just buy quarterly when the price opportunity is reasonable and cash presents itself and the business fundamentals still stay intact.

I first started buying the stock when the share price was around 1.18.
I bought 20k share in Feb at 4.08.
Then 10k share in April at 4.57.
Then 10k share in may at 4.64.
Then 10k share in June at 5.15.

If you buy a wonderful company, it is much easier to stay invested over a long period of time. And if you know enough about the long term prospects of the company, you can buy more on large quantities without being afraid or second guessing yourself.

Hopefully in the next few years it will be my third 10 bagger that I have put meaningful money into.

I think a lot of people try to unnecessarily complicate investing with so many strategies and options and methods etc. I think if you can identify the characteristics of a wonderful businesses, you can simplify your job by searching for ones that present a fair price compared to its future potential.

I say future potential because even I am at fault of using too many assumptions in valuing companies.

Charlie munger says assume makes and ass out of u and me.

The less assumptions you have to make about a business, the easier it is to predict it's future earnings.

In yinson case I don't have to worry about cash, debt, corruption, management capability, them diworsification their business into new unknown business.

All I need to concentrate on is their capability of winning their tenders, the risks they take in those bids, the returns and profit, and how well they are competing with their peers.

Share price will take care of itself.

Short term thinkers and long term investors are two different worlds. What is the 5 year track record of QL Vs naim and lafarge?

Is very very well run. I like it's long term prospects.

I like cypark a lot. It's a very well managed company with a good reputation. The only problem for me was the future of large scale solar systems, which doesn't seem to work without government subsidy. But it's waste management and other energy generation business.

Calvintaneng lives in his own bubble world, whatever people say he will just rebut with his own made up answers. It's ok, we pull him down to reality, whenever his ego comes up and he talks bullshit, we just repost his 2019 promoted stocks portfolio into his face and bring him back down to earth.

His portfolio here.

https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/123029.jsp

I am too lazy to compile his 2018,2017 etc, but will do every time from now on whenever he open his mouth.

Too much bullshit from a harvest city pastor.

But it is simple, there are many stocks that I don't know a thing about, should I comment on every single one of them like Calvin?

You give so much warnings, if you know the stock closely then good for you. If you don't, and the stock is actually a turnaround stock, you would have unnecessarily harmed others for no good reason.

This is why it is good to stick to your circle of competence. It seems you are competent with every single stock in bursa.

Congrats. You are now better than even Warren buffet who knows what he knows and doesn't presume he knows everything.

https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/123029.jsp

This is your portfolio which you think you know everything.

SO MANY OTHERS CALVIN GAIN WARNING (WHERE IS STUPID 3iii & PHILIP (NEVER GIVE A WORD OF WARNING?)

Hmm Calvin, you talk so much about QL resources as a bad investment... I'm surprised you did not lump in your room and gloom warnings.

A clear example is sapura. In quantifying the quality of sapura and INSAS, we realize that the share price of these 2 companies has dropped at a far faster rate than it's overall business, assets and earnings, making it look like a business selling at a wonderful price.

But make no mistake, the revenues and earnings are dropping. As it drops these investments suddenly seem like wonderful businesses to buy with lots of cash, land and business assets.

But exactly like how Kcchongz and 3iii puts it, there are many ways to quantify quality.

You can look at p/e as a measure of a company's value, profitability. A low pe can be a good thing, as it appears that you are paying a low price for the company to gain the share of earnings. A high PE is a no-no, as it means you are paying for an overpriced company.

But p/e does not define risk, debt, future company prospects. Only metrics that to be honest are easily gamed by auditors and business owners.

In that vein, you can also then look at p/e as a measure of the investors faith in the company. A high PE means investors are very hopeful, are looking forward to the company future and everyone is holding tight for the ride. While a low PE could also mean that investors are hesitant to pay top dollar for a company with limited prospects/unknown future.

I totally agree with this concept, and this is certainly something to learn for both sslee and stockraider.

I have learnt from my bad experience many many years ago that someone every the annual reports, quarterly reports and even AGM all the wordings are manipulated, positives opined, negatives redacted, so that everything looks rosy.

High quality businesses are very clear cut companies which everyone can see the competitive advantage. That by itself is a margin of safety. Those that invest simply based on NTA and simplified metrics fail to realize one thing: companies can and have been known to lose their competitive advantage due to distruption, corruptness, carelessness and mismanagement.

Funnily enough, a lot of those companies suddenly start to look like deep value investments when the share price drops at a faster rate than the NTA, cash and earnings.

But once the moat is gone, sooner or later the barbarians will come to the gate.

>>>>>

By staying with very high quality businesses (those with durable competitive advantage for a very long time), you have locked in a lot of margin of safety.

4th quarter 50 lines will open up, so revenue and earnings will definitely go up in the long run. Issue note is due more top start increase in raw materials prices which will only be reflected on next quarter earnings to balance out. I'm content to collect my dividends and wait.

Rather than a suitable price to sell, it's probably better to look at a bit permanent cost increase instead in feed materials, which effects the selling price and margins of PCHEM. If this happens consistently over a long period of time, then I will consider dropping the stock. Consider LCTITAN, , the share price has dropped over half since IPO due to a permanent constraint in supply vs demand and the dwindling profit margins. If PCHEM starts to show similar signs, then it is a suitable target to sell. Although I don't see much signs of it happening within the next 5 years. Their cost of raw materials from aramco and petronas is a huge business advantage over it's competitors.

So funny, 95% of YINSON contract is international. Only 1 contract this year is won in Malaysia under Nippon jx. Even if MACC wanted to check, they have to go to Brazil and ask them instead.

I could answer this question, the reason was actually very simple. Prior to 2018, iq group was going very well as a ODM and OEM for other international companies. Meaning they would make products that were used and branded by Osram, Phillips, L&E, etc. Demand and sales were doing very well.
However it decided to tip it's hand by using the design learned from it's customers and produce it's own product, which directly competed with it's own customers. This was a disastrous move.

Being very unhappy, and as the main players for LED lighting is very small, almost all of them decided to drop purchasing from iqgroup and found other manufacturers instead. Almost overnight the sales and earnings dried up.

Moving forward, iqgroup will no longer be able to do OEM or ODM business as they have burned that bridge. Time Will tell if lumiqs is able to compete in a very competitive marketplace.

>>>>>>>>>

in FYE March 2018, the group's profitability was adversely affected by a combination of the followings :-

(a) slow down in sales (reason unknown);

A very specific usage of hanlon's Razor is in using epf, majority shareholders that are buying or selling stocks in large quantity as a guide to buy stocks. Many i3 investors assume epf as an evil agent that wants to entrap/scare off/pump & dump/ etc as to make a big profit. When in reality, there are many different parties inside that have vastly different motives for doing things and therefore should be ignored.

For Occam's Razor I use it all the time in comparing the possibilities of the growth of a company ie reducing the usable assumptions or stretching the possibilities of a company working out, or how a company like sapura/armada will do well in the long term ( a lot of assumptions) versus a company like yinson doing well ( far less assumptions to make).

This helps immensely in me cutting down the companies that I need to monitor, and most importantly: how likely is a company like dayang ability to succeed in the next few years ( cut down the many likely and unlikely assumptions). Kyy did it with hengyuan and dayang, so did stockraider and Calvin with their projections on sapura etc.

I applied this mental model and asked myself: how likely? Everything should be kept as simple as possible, but not simpler.

Apologies if I went off base, but I loved your title quantifying quality. And I thought people don't think on that term enough, but simplify their minds into thinking of investing as just a simple formula based approach.

For those interested in further understanding the depth of that term quantifying quality, take a read here. Once you get these basic mental models out of the way, use it on valuing your investment, it would change your entire scope of horizons of what is value investing.

https://getpocket.com/explore/item/mental-models-i-find-repeatedly-useful

Then when you realize how we ALL use some mental models on stock picking, imagine what happens when you have 100 different mental models that you can quantify to get a much better understanding on the long term competitive advantage of your stock.

Sorry for hijacking your thread KChongz.

If anyone is interested, I am also doing a talk on mental models for my secondary school graduates for my rotary club sponsored school tomorrow, about the vice chairman of brk, who is a trained later but studied physics, maths, architecture, biology, economics in University and the value of popping into unknown classes to understand the big picture, the overall mental model of the class. And how to use mental models to get ahead in life. I'll try to post my transcript if anyone is interested.

A good article. My opinion on value investors though is very different.
In fact all stocks investment are bought based on some perceived form of value.

(Value investing to mean, and responses will likely be consistent; buying stocks at low Price/Earnings, Price/Book, Price/Cash flows, high dividend yield etc.) = This opinion of the value investor basically means that one is a Ben Graham value investor. This assesses one form of quality.

Warren Buffett himself commented that Ben would not have bought many of the stocks that he holds today, least if all Berkshire Hathaway, it is true if you are that kind of Graham value investor.
I believe Warren buffet value investing adds a few more parameters: total addressable market, market share dominance and durability, business longevity, management capability for organic and inorganic expansion, long term competitive advantage. These are less direct formulaic metrics, but also gives you more insight on long term value. Any way to assess quality.

What may seem to be a bad investment for the Graham investor is a wonderful investment for the Buffett investor. Graham would never have invested in amex during salad oil crisis, nor put money into Amazon at any price.

Buffet investors would not have bought Intel, GE or a plethora of seemingly undervalued companies.

Words and terminology are very very important.

Before you can become a "value" investor, one must understand how to each investor derives value.

I like to think myself as a munger value investor. His position on value investing is based on different mental models for different businesses. You can't use the same one metric to measure the different businesses. But using multiple mental models for can valuation, you can tie things together to get the long term competitive advantage of a business.

My favorite mental models,

"People like to calculate too much, but think too little".
"The big money is not in the buying and the selling, but in the waiting."
"Hanlon's Razor."
"Occam's razor."
"Cognitive bias"
" Power law" I loved this mental model which comes from engineering. Pareto 80% of effects come from 20% causes.
Charlie munger uses more than 100 mental models to aid his thinking. I believe him as I use a lot in understanding my own investments.