If it was that easy to make your own chocolate brand they would have done it a long time ago. Very easy: if you start competing with your end users you end up like IQgroup (they moved from supplier to competitor then suddenly all their orders dried up).

Consider the problem. It is easy to make cocoa powder, dry it and ship it out. But if you start making a milo competitor, do you think Nestle will want to buy their raw materials from you?

Sorry Calvin, I'm not interested in knowing the lives of frauds who lead innocent people to hell.

Snort at your idea of good defensive stocks.
I repeat: what is your portfolio?
>>>>>>

pantech, naim, Uzma, Pohuat, T7 global, Asiapac and others such like defensive good stocks

Hi lmy059c, let me give you a clear cut example of my thought process.

The biggest cocoa grinder in the world is Barry callebaut with 1.7 million tonnes of cocoa produced every year.
The second biggest is olam producing 900k tonnes per year.
Cargill grinds 800k tonnes per year.
GCB is 4th biggest producing 250k tonnes per year.
JB foods produces 180k tonnes per year.

Now that Malaysia produces very little cocoa, majority of it comes from Cote dvoire and African countries. Meaning imports and currency changes(2014 losses) are a huge risk for GCB, the " biggest" cocoa GRINDER in Asia.

Notice how I highlighted grinder. They work with low margins historically because of high competition. Do you know what is the market size of cocoa?

Grinders and confectionery companies are two very different things.

Top 10 Largest Chocolate Companies in the World 2018 Rank Companies 2017 Net Sales (US$ billion) 1 Mars Wrigley Confectionery (USA) 18 2 Ferrero Group (Luxembourg / Italy) 12 3 Mondelēz International (USA) 11.6 4 Meiji Co Ltd (Japan) 9.7 5 Nestlé SA (Switzerland) 8.8 6 Hershey Co (USA) 7.5 7 Lindt & Sprüngli AG (Switzerland) 4.1 8 Ezaki Glico Co Ltd (Japan) 3.2 9 Arcor (Argentina) 3.1 10 Pladis (UK) 2.8 Source: ICCO

They have higher margins because of brand recognition. More sales, and better growth opportunities.

All those grinders sell to Nestle. Nestle chooses the cheapest. Meaning the grinders are always competing to give the lowest prices and maintain minimum margins.

Nestle has 10-16% net profit margins. Meiji, ferero, Hershey, mondelez.
GCB historically works below 7% margins. Barry is 5% historically.

Now I'm not saying you can't make money in GCB. But you need to understand why Nestle can be 50pe while GCB is 10pe.

GCB does NOT sell chocolate or chocolate milk. They are raw materials processor.

Welcome back stockraider. Everything ok? How is your health?

OTB has a record of his buying and selling portfolio trade. Do you?

>>>>>>
FYI, my ROI is 100% return dated 6/5/2019.
I have special skill whereas you do not have.
Show me your record that you are better than me.
17/05/2019 10:12 PM

OTB has a record, calvin. Do you?

>>>>>>

FYI, my ROI is 100% return dated 6/5/2019.
I have special skill whereas you do not have.
Show me your record that you are better than me.
17/05/2019 10:12 PM

very nice calvin. I have a portfolio on i3 that I keep up to date and have been updating the latest on 2019 on i3investor. I have been stuck in QL since 2009. May I see your 100% portfolio? you keep promoting stocks, I forget which you hold and which you sell.

Or are you like judas? All words and no determination?

Hi sslee, I think you are going about investing in the wrong way. I must admit I have only been to 4 agm (BRK 2 times, PBB and QL) in my entire life, and that was because my wife wanted the free gifts (and holiday in Nebraska and visit my daughter).

Warren buffett has bought entire companies without even meeting the directors or visiting the companies.

I have come to believe the reasons are very simple.

Do the simple things, the most efficient and easy to achieve.

Dont waste your time and money buying microcaps, or betting on companies with "potential" to make big bucks. Just concentrate on the sure things, the least risky options which are profitable and even idiots can understand what they are doing.

Those who don't know how to evaluate risk, they buy JJPTR, Swiss gold, five element coin, forex, etc etc only thinking about big profit etc.

Those who know how evaluate risk, will benchmark everything versus the 4% fixed deposit, and find the business with the highest upside versus the lowest downside.

Hengyuan YOU know is now a company owned by china company (same like xinquan) with their own agenda and their own plans. Any returns or profits will be on their terms, not yours. Their goals (like xinquan) may not coincide with yours.

Their valuation was done at 51% bought from shell at 66.3 million USD February 2016. This must be the benchmark upon which your valuation of hengyuan must begin as well. When they bought over the controlling rights, the "story" was that hengyuan would be able to upgrade and complete the transition of the shell refining plants at a far cheaper cost than Shell itself could do, and comply with all the regulations.

But why jump so high and take so much risk to understand a complicated business? Invest in low hanging fruit with low chance of failure, with a acceptable profit benchmarked on the risk (and the historical growth, debt, management).

Big bets on greedy companies with big short term profits (and even higher underlying risk) will just result in tears.

private placements and rights issues are never a good sign, no matter how good the marketing and storytelling can be.

I think the last time I recall QL having a rights issue was in 2014.
PCHEM has never had one.
Public bank last did one in 2014.
Topglove chose to do convertible bonds instead, something similar but with less dilution of shareholder value.
I can't recall if GKENT has every done one in recent years, but I do know they do buybacks.
Yinson did one in 2014, which was funnily enough, OVERSUBSCRIBED. Turns out if you use rights issue to pare down debt and do things properly, there will be support.

Doing any private placements or rights issue when the market is challenging is never doing the right thing by the investors. Management has to give big discounts to raise cash, and in the end the ones that lose out are the owners and minority shareholders of the company.


Malaysian investors are weird. They look down on companies that do buybacks and overly value dividend payout. They should understand context, buybacks when the intrinsic share value is low and debt paring vs dividend payout (or even borrowing money to pay a dividend) is key in raising long term value.

Calvin you don't even know the meaning of the word safe:

Uzma - microcap where the business hasn't grown, but the share dilution is growing faster than its profits.
Kps - this one is ok, but like they say, a broken clock gets it right twice a day. good job clock! but 5% split into 50 stocks means nothing.
T7 global - PE50 company Calvin? Wow really? for a company with no moat, no monopoly, no growth? you call this safe? Jesus wept. You really like leading honest Christians into hell.
Pohuat - furniture maker that has been stuck as a mid-income trap for a long long time.


What is with you and microcap stocks anyway? is your goal only to promote, pump and dump and run away?


Why cant you invest in good growing, well managed companies for once?

Wendy pizza? what is that? or are you talking about wendys burger? FM is pure gamble? It is 100 stores now and have already broken even. Get your facts right at least calvin.

My last purchase was 6.25 in December. I continue to buy more after looking at quarterly report.

Last I heard someone suck at asianpac for many many years.

Guffaw.

>>>>>>>>>

Stock: [ASIAPAC]: ASIAN PAC HOLDINGS BHD

May 13, 2019 4:45 PM | Report Abuse

Calvin still holding asiapac

Yup, I never ask anyone to follow me, I am just presenting my 'contrarian" view of what I think about the company. In fact, I would advise anyone that can't make their analysis but relies on old men like me or what other people say to not put their money into stock market.

Very dangerous if you don't know what you are doing or why you are buying.

Using this logic, if someone post positive comment, that means the stock is good.

If someone post negative comment, that means the stock is good.

So any comment means the stock is Good?

>>>>>>

Posted by InvestsucessTrader > May 18, 2019 8:38 AM | Report Abuse

Beware!! If someone post negative comments on the stock, that means the stock is good because they are trying to scare everyone to sell, so they can buy at a cheaper price, and presently they are not holding any share.

Good point, however... Why does Berkshire buy See's candies? Why does mondelez buy Cadbury? Why is Hershey's a rm100b company? Why is gcb historical net profit margins sub5%? Why

The simple answer is pricing power due to brand recognition and market competition. Simply put, there is no way for gcb to raise prices without hurting their margins. The moment they do, everyone will start buying raw materials from somewhere else cheaper.

Think of it this way: everyone know h&m, Zara and Uniqlo. The average person doesn't even care who that Indian or Chinese company that supplies all the clothes to them. The moment the Indian/China company starts to raise prices or complain about low margins, zara, H&M and Uniqlo can just go down the street to Bangladesh and get cheap raw materials from there.

I don't know how long the global demand will continue to be so high. But what I do know is, everyone including gcb is rushing to increase the manufacturing space and production capacity, which will lead to a overcapacity.

GCB is commendable in reducing their borrowing from 780 million to 600 million, but it makes you wonder why a "wonderful" company with 50 million in cash needs to borrow so much and pay such a huge interest every year ( and dividends), while other companies like Nestle,Mars, Hershey's and Cadbury(mondelez) are cash generating cows with very low dent levels.

If you think they will continue to enjoy high margins 5-10 years from now, gcb is definitely a good buy. But I find it unlikely in the long run. Especially when I realize I have almost as much deposits, bank and cash balance as GCB. That is worrying.

>>>>>

Posted by lmy059c > May 18, 2019 12:22 AM | Report Abuse

let me add some salient points to the brief, professional and unbiased report. GCB is listed as RHB's one of the top 5 small cap jewels for 2019. Its last 1 yr return is more than 150%. GCB is the largest cacao grinder in Asia and the 4th largest in the world. GCB is NOT a chocolate manufacturer itself but it supplies cacao ingredients (4 types altogether) to other chocolate manufacturers including world class choco manufacturers such as Hershey and Mars. So, please please don't ever compare GCB to other small choco manufacturer like Cadbury...…..

I'm not really interested in cocoa grinders, it's too easy to export and process and there are too many competitors. Everyone knows lindt and ferero and Cadbury and Royce. Not many people know guan Chong. The former have pricing control and a moat, whereas guan Chong only make money recently for to consolidation and low Malaysian currency. There is no long term competitive advantage, as 2014 shows.

If you think about it, it is very very easy to process cocoa around the world, turn it into blocks of chocolate and ship it around relatively easy. The ones that have staying power on the grinding end are those that produce their own cocoa and have their own farms. Even then, the better the quality, the lower the margins for grinders. I'm not a fan of these kinds of businesses.

I think there is a perfectly valid why gcb is pe10.

Malaysian don't know how to appreciate or buy good chocolate. Nestle has trained the average Malaysian into thinking good chocolate is just sweet cocoa(aka Milo). That's why the average Malaysians won't pay up for Godiva/Royce chocolates etc. To them, a Cadbury chocolate is a good chocolate ( which is untrue, it's just milk,sugar and emulsifier, flavoring and coloring and a little bit of cocoa).

If you tried eating a bar of 100% pure chocolate (no sugar added, just pure cocoa), it would be unedible. I've tried.

The real money is not in the supplier, it's the end manufacturer. Just ask Cadbury and Nestle.

Funnily enough, cadbury became a household name when they reduced the amount of chocolate in their mix and added now milk (Cadbury dairy chocolate).

GCB not my cup of tea.

Fully agreed, Jason.

Thanks for the misguided information. Please be advised on the difference of scuttlebutt and insider trading. If your wife works in public Bank as a bank manager and she sees the loan portfolio of pbb Vs CB,rhb etc that is scuttlebutt. If your good friend works in ql as a plant maintainence manager and pays you promptly before due date every month, that is scuttlebutt. If you are the subcon of a well paying company in a major project, that is scuttlebutt.

If you have access to information that is not publicly available, that is INSIDER TRADING.

Understand what is stock manipulation and not.

Protasco.
Talamt.
Karambunai.
Bonia.
CSC steel.

Many. Many. More.

Hide the losers. Promote the winners.

Average everything together. You know the results

Standard scam activities.

JJPTR. No need show portfolio anything can say.

The part that worries me the most is Calvin putting himself as a buycall specialist with high hitrate and free information. But what happens after people start believing in him is the dangerous part.

First class free, 2nd WhatsApp group free. After that okay for information. Then pay 45k for sure win info from his Johor sifu ( rich dad) but not Calvin tan (I'm just a follower!).

Just. Like. Kiyosaki. Hide the lies between the truths. Make money. Rinse and repeat.

>>>>>>
https://thecollegeinvestor.com/4726/ultimate-hypocrite-robert-kiyosaki-companys-bankruptcy/

CSC steel buycall 1.51.
bonia buycall 0.5.

So many buycall, no cut loss call? Or we assume Calvin practices buy and hold?

Or forget losers keep promoting winners, and keep repeating old stories?

How does Calvin really make his money... Johor sifu? Is this line that rich dad poor dad kiyosaki guy? ( He never had a rich dad) aaaannnd when we put his real estate investing skills to the test, he lost money on the reality show...

Interesting. I have just stumbled onto this thread about a pathological liar. Funny how today csc steel is still undervalued at 1.12. what day you Calvin? Isn't it undervalued, are you buying more?

I thought I was the only one who thought your recommendations and WhatsApp collection was strange.

Apparently you have been doing thing like this for a very very long time. Why continue? Definitely the is an economic benefit for you.

Now that I know this is your rice bowl, I will let you earn your money ( and burn in hell) and stop replying or talking about your "stock" picks.

You have no long term value. Since majority of the i3 cried know week enough to avoid you, you can only fleece the new investors in the forum.

Fleece away. Everyone needs to eat.

Even Swiss cash and JJPTR.


>>>>>>>

ALWAYS TELL THE TRUTH. NOTHING BUT THE TRUTH.

THE TRUTH IS CALVIN ONLY INVESTED LESS THAN 5% CAPITAL IN STICK MARKET.

AND AFTER MARKET CRASHED BY 80% - 90% THEN CALVIN FULLY LOAD UP

HOHOHO!!!
15/10/2018 8:31 PM

Because I actually like what I am doing? There are many millionaires around who still work into their 70s and 80s because for them this is fun. For me I stock investing is a habit, a discipline.

If I find it fun to do investing and work in a company where I have fun and no stress, wouldn't it be good?

4444, it may be a difficult concept, imagine if you no longer have to work hard to survive, and you already have been to all the places you wanted to go, what would you do?

Wouldn't you rather work for fun? Learn new things everyday, meet new people? Leave all the stress to the company owner, while you get to manage your own engineering team (leave the stress to them) and just do the best you can? Be in a situation where people need you, trust you, respect you and listen to your opinions?

Money is not the answer. Its good for keeping track though.

Chia song kun ( ql boss is 69)
Warren buffet ( Berkshire boss is 90)
Lee choon chin ( weida boss is 65)
Lee wee Yong ( hap Seng executive director is 72)

These are all people that I have personally met and have a great respect for, all of them many times richer than you or me.

Asking them to retire is like asking them to stop breathing and just die of boredom.

I hope you learned something today.

THE MEANING OF LIFE IS TO GIVE LIFE A MEANING.

From signed contracts by China companies and other countries:

Kenya last month launched the construction of the 120km Phase 2A of the 489km standard-gauge railway line that will link Mombasa to the Ugandan border at a cost of US$1.76 billion (RM7.37 billion). This means it will cost about RM61.42 million per kilometre. There is no indication of the number of bridges that will be built or if there will be any tunnelling works involved.

In Bangladesh, China Railway Construction Corp signed a US$3.5 billion (RM14.65 billion) contract in August to build the 215km Padma rail line linking Dhaka to Jessore, which includes the construction of 66 major bridges, 244 minor bridges, 14 new stations and the procurement of 100 passenger coaches. And the project works out to RM68.14 million per kilometre.

For lrt3, at the latest meeting I attended, finalized is just 25 stations, no underground, and reduction from 6 box cars to 4 cars currently. If using China estimates, the estimated cost for this should be around 8-9 billion for 37 km. Why they renegotiated to 16.63 and awarded to Malaysian company and not directly dealing with China railway construction corp ( that is a 6.63 billion "moat") like ecrl? That is the investment part.

In either case my company is one of the subcons for gkent, and I continue to monitor closely. Although I may retire early before completion.

Sorry 16.6 billion contract. I believe gkent will not sign if it is not profitable long term. In either case there are many large civil contractors, but not many large mechanical & electrical specialist contractors around. Those who do contracts also know that m&e are generally smaller but are far more profitable than civil contracts which are bigger but less profit margins.

More importantly gkent is smart enough to work together with a financial partner to take the brunt of financial portion while they handle the technical portion. The normal margins for proper contracts are 20-30% for normal projects, for specialized projects are as high as 40%. This would be the renegotiated prices, which luckily gkent as PDP did not have to give any kickbacks to najib previously ( other NSC do that) using latest China estimates of their track and rail and system costs, the entire project should cost around 10-12 billion for that 37km work. I believe gkent should be able to share the 5 billion profit between them and mrcb. Which is a very good deal on the next few years for the parties involved.

Name me how many Malaysian companies make water meter in Malaysia and have the manufacturing and capability to win big contract in Hong Kong, Thailand and Singapore?

Name me how many Malaysian companies have done and completed mrt/lrt train cars and have the capability to manage control systems for trains?

How many companies were awarded lrt contract ( for m&e) in Malaysia this year?

Those who don't know contracting only think it means one thing. Those who know contracting know there are many parts to a contract, civil, m&e, elv, control systems.

Gkent is a SPECIALIST contractor. They don't do housing. They don't do condominium. They build water treatment plants, hospitals, sewage treatment plants, complex projects, critical infrastructure. High value, difficult to quote, hard to execute.

That is a moat.

Unless you think any contractor in Malaysia can do lrt? In a tender process, there is a requirement for Malaysian companies preferred with good financials and good past project experience. That is why they got the 1.89b project from pakatan. Not because they are golfing buddies with najib. All those projects they have gotten are high value, high profit, and guaranteed collection if they complete in time. I am one of their subcontractors, I know they can.

Not all contractors are the same. United technologies is also a contractor (specialist defense contractor). Honeywell is also a contractor (specialist HVAC contractor). Siemens is also a contractor ( automation and control). Do they have moat?

It depends. Can you hold it for 5 years and reinvest your dividends? If you can't then it's not good. If you can then it's good.
>>>>>
1k into gkent right now

I really don't think HARTA will change much in their pricings. Valuation adjust? In the short term anything can happen, in the mid and long term in Malaysia it matters little.

If they go to full on world war 3 different story la. Trade war and real war different.

>>>>>
everybody lose.....people got less money....pricings and valuation adjusted. ......company fundamentals do not change, pricings change.

Their main argument was that the reduction in profit was due to sudden rise in MYR in a short term combined with their inability to pass the costs down to customers in time for the orders impacting their profit loss this quarter. So do you think they will be able to pass the costs down in future? If the answer is yes, then it is a good opportunity to buy more, if you think no, then not. For me personally I don't know HARTA that well, but the manufacturing lines are still growing and more products are being used ( increased revenues) so in the future I believe they will continue to do well 5-10 years on
>>>>>>

For instance, Hartalega recent QR dropped 22% QoQ, but I see the revenue is growing, just that the Costs have increased more attributed to sharp rise in MYR, increased electricity costs, labour costs and etc. In my opinion, I strongly think that the fundamentals remain intact. What do you think?

Wow, spoken as if you know them well. Probably never been to a Berkshire annual meeting before. Well I went to this years, do you know what they bought? Amazon at high PE. Why? Because Warren says just using PE and book value alone to judge a company is silly. You need to understand how much cash the company can generate over it's lifetime and make a decision to invest. QL is a company in a industry that is fast consolidating ( how many big competitors to family mart, 7-11 can you name? Let than 10) where small competitors are quickly pushed out and the big ones ( leong hup, ql, japfa, CP) just keep on getting bigger. Do you see people stop eating chickens and eggs and fish products?

Stop looking yourself Calvin. You have no clue how to invest, you are a trader. So stop trying to teach people how to invest. So far the longest I have seen you ask people to buy and hold is 5 months.

>>>>>>
calvintaneng Qqq3

Calvin follows many other than buffet

There are Schloss, Been Graham, Peter Lynch, Hoeard Marks and John Need

This year I follow more on John Neff and Sifu Peter Lynch

Both John Neff and Peter Lynch will sell Ql at such lofty valuation

This is your opinion. Any proof yet? Tell me when it happens.

>>>>>>>>

everybody lose.....people got less money....pricings and valuation adjusted. ......company fundamentals do not change, pricings change.



what is worth $ 100 before suddenly worth $ 90 next.



got to recalibrate......come Friday.....tarif hike is a sure thing.

Why I say it doesn't matter, this is in terms of context of company fundamentals and share prices. Give you a simple example on one of your favorites, if you really like JAKS, the share price drop a lot ( the entire market drop a lot) is due to us/china sentiments. But if you believe the company is good you will know to wait until the quarterly results come out to make your decision.

This us/chn is only temporary and will not affect the business fundamentals of majority of your Malaysian bursa companies. Your oil is same price, your steel is same price. Your cement price. Your house cost the same. Your chicken rice cost the same.

Your share price dropping 10-20% without any earnings report? That is just a new discount Mr market gives you. If you have new funds, time to take advantage.

I know I have. Buying more PCHEM, GKent, YINSON, and probably buying more topglov and ql after reading the next quarterly report.

Again, us/chn trade war will not affect PCHEM, GKent, YINSON etc business at all.

Quarterly report out, perfect timing to spend my dividends and income on more discounted shares.

Stop putting words in my mouth little girl. All I said is I don't know enough about JAKS to invest in it. If I know everything there is to know about JAKS, then I would know about the Star thing. But sochai like you always like to praise people who agree with you as smart and those who don't as sochai.

You lost my respect.
>>>>>
Icon8888 And CFO so clever sold off at 73 Sen

Then he gave a pep talk to the Sabah sochai, who believed he knows everything about jaks

Exactly, if the company fundamentals do not change, and the price goes down, then it just gives you more if an opportunity to buy more.

Hmmm.... OPR rates reduced for the first time since 1996, I think.

What does portfolio rebalancing? If you mean sell for the sake of selling, no I don't do that. For me my portfolio rebalancing is based on a change in business fundamentals and new economic challenges that change my view on the long term economic returns of my investment. If it changes, I drop the stock.

One major example is my "portfolio rebalancing" of Public bank into petronas chemicals.

I regretfully sell something that is good, for something that is much better.

I don't agree with the idea of selling for the sake of selling.

I also don't do dollar cost averaging. I review my investments every quarter report instead to see if things have changed. If they haven't and the business is still strong, I buy more. Dollar cost averaging is just buying without understanding as the price drops it goes up.

Ah now we see how you really make money Calvin. 5% in 50 stocks, it is easy to chun Chun some calls and hide the others quietly.

And I obviously see the inverted quotes "free service" in your postings.

So pitiably sad.

Just in case you still live under a rock somewhere and don't realize that given 2 exact choices, everyone will always pick up the more convenient one.

Fact remains, cashless in more convenient ( and getting safer by the day) than cash. Sooner or later, Malaysia will embrace a cashless society like other parts of the world.

For banks, crm and cash machines may soon become a hindrance than a savings. If you can pay your bills online, why walk to the bank at all?

>>>>>
https://themalaysianreserve.com/2018/12/21/e-wallet-users-see-rapid-growth-in-msia/

Grab, Uber, tabao, Lazada, Alibaba were barely in Malaysia 5 years ago. Now everyone from my wife to my daughter uses it.

Whenever I travel these days I just use grab or Uber surcharge. When I am in a long meeting with my team, we just order Uber eats, panda.

Online transfers and Alibaba are my main mode of transferring money these days. Even cheques are slowly being phased out. Verification is becoming more and more safer with good security apps.

You only think about cash because you live in Malaysia. In China online wechat payments are dominating the market. In Japan almost everything can be paid via your smartphone. In many countries like in UK there I go often we don't even bring selling cash anymore, everything can be paid via debit card and credit card, from food, to bus rides to clothes to buying groceries at Tesco.

If you think the future is not going cashless then you need to think hard. Which would you rather carry if it was convenient, a card or a pile of easily stolen cash.

FYI even coin payments at the food court these days I just shake the boost to pay for it.

So yes, I use ewallet very very often. How often do you use cash to pay for your grab/uber rides?

>>>

Posted by bursadiary > May 5, 2019 11:50 PM | Report Abuse

Yes , cashless payment is here. How often do you use ewallet? Can I stop using cash? No. I still need cash everyday. Give me a call after you don't use cash anymore.

I did mine this way, I put 200k into QL back in 2009. Then every quarter report I read up on it. If the business is still doing well and continue to do well I put my 3 month savings into QL. So I did it for 10 years straight. That chicken rice dividend? I get almost 150k dividend every year now. But that is probably just lucky. Anyhow, invests in a growing hardworking company, it will do well for you.

>>>>>>
Law Jun no is like a joke my friend made like wait half a year to afford one chicken rice aka dividend

An analogy, and a mental model for you to remember, delayed gratification. You should read up about it, it is pretty interesting and useful, especially in investing.

Why go out to buy burger when you can learn to make one at home? I learnt to be pretty good at making ramli burgers in my day. Movies you have free these days ( my daughter introduced me to fmovies and Netflix). For the price of 3 movie I can basically watch Netflix for a month. Why do you need to watch the latest movies anyway? ( And paying rm60 for that latest imax custom VIP seat. It's still the same movie). You can watch it a month later on a discount Wednesday at rm5.

Anyway it's things like that that make a bigger difference in your investing life than what stocks you buy.

Attitude, patience and consistency.

>>>>>>>
Heavenly PUNTER Research IB Unker eating that burger and going for that movie is quite reasonable lah... No need to live life so sadly.... Haha of course PS4 you buy it later

My advice since you are young, treat stock investing like buying a house. Since you don't simply but and sell your house every few days or check the price every few weeks you should treat buying stocks the same way. Also since you plan to stay in your house for a long time it makes sense to find out as much as you can (location, price, rental yield how many rooms, who is the developer etc) before you take the plunge.

If you buy and sell your stock every month, I can almost guarantee you will lose money in the long run. I know I did.

One mental model to learn is the rule of 72. 72 divided by the interest rate is how many years it takes for your money to double. In Maybank case if you bought it now, at it's current dividend yield of 6.3%, in slightly over 11 and 1/2 years, you would have doubled your money. You double it faster if you reinvest your dividends into the stock and continuously buy and hold for the long term.

That is another mental model you can learn: compounding is the 8th wonder of the world. If you choose discipline and put more money continually into Maybank instead of buying that PS4 or watching that movie or eating that burger, in 10 years you would be able to buy 10 PS4, buy a movie theater system or own that burger franchise instead.

The secret is discipline: do you buy that PS4 now, or later?

In either case Maybank is a good stock for you to continuously buy, as if you bought it at 9.32 you would have enjoyed 32 cents dividends. My advice is if you can continue to just keep and don't sell ( and continue to buy every quarter) for the next 20 years, you will do well.

I'm sorry law Jun, as I am not doing any teaching or investment classes or investing trading or things like that, I don't believe I will be much help. Especially on the basics. Most of the investment ideas I have are very simple and direct and conservative, you just need to learn patience and consistency and most importantly discipline. I won't be able to help you much there as well, as those are things which you get from experience ( in my case bad experience).

I can however point you in the right way. I would advise you to look up Kcchongz as he has better documentation and learning materials, plus that some free ebooks he can email to you.

Real life experience can only be gained from real life. I would advise you to start your investing journey early, and keep a portion of your income as I do every quarter to invest. Refine your stock picks, and think very very hard before you buy any stock.

Treat your stock picking as if you can only buy a few stocks in your life.

It's weird but true, investing is the only activity where you can second guess(and triple guess) yourself many times, don't buy any stock at all and you won't be wrong at all. Over activity is the bane of the intelligent investor.

Optimusprime88 you seem very pro. Can recommend some share to buy?

This is not it. That concept is inaccurate and pretty much IMPOSSIBLE TO ESTIMATE as a reliable method of investing. 5 years of good returns does not project 10-15 years of cash flow returns. You cannot box in investing into one simple mental model. In fact, I said it before many times, ALL investing is VALUE investing. But now that Warren says it, buying pe50 companies ( with monopolistic characteristics) suddenly makes sense.

The most simplified way of looking at Berkshire investment is using these basic mental models:

1. The only assured, GUARANTEED way for shares prices to go up in the long term is with rising revenues, rising earnings fueled by controllable debt.

2. The easiest way to identify companies with competitive advantage is to first look to the market industry leaders and benchmark them against everyone else. A simple moat (like location, brand, management, cash pile) can go a long long way.

3. The idea behind paying up for wonderful companies versus paying cheap for average companies is based on the concept of risk. The first 10years of Amazon is growth fueled by high risk high reward. Now that they have built a dominant position in the market, that risk is getting lower and lower. Understand Risk first and foremost before investing.

4. Cash flows needs to have context. Matured companies will have better can flows than start ups. But just like a mirage in a desert, if you don't understand CONTEXT, you will not understand VALUE.

5. Everyone seems to want to look for the next Google, next Amazon, next Apple at it's infancy. But for every Google out there you will find a pets.com. history has shown buying quality works. If you had bought s&p 500 over the last 20 years and reinvested your returns, even without knowing a thing about stock picking you would have done well. In Malaysia, even if you knew next to nothing about investing, if you had just bought a basket of stocks around the most solid industry in Malaysia ( banks) if you had reinvested and continued investing in the market leaders (rhb, Hong leong, public, Maybank, cimb, bank Islam) over a long period 10-15 years you would have done well.
Buy quality, it works.

Investing doesn't have to be hard. You host need to be consistent, patient and concentrated.

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Posted by Choivo Capital > May 7, 2019 1:53 AM | Report Abuse

Value investing is buying all future cash flows, discounted to present value, at a discount/margin of safety.

This means, one of this fund mangers, believes amazon will be making a ton more money in the future with a high level of confidence.

That's it.

Stop comparing yinson with armada. One is a specialist company like haagendaz that only concentrates on one product (fpso), while the other is like your local junkyard that has everything inside (but no management and no value).

One does huge share buybacks( but only at low prices so shareholder value is kept) and gives dividends while the other keeps burning money.

One is a Malaysian company but uses international Norwegian management team. The other has many cronyism and favouritism.

One believes in doing smaller as long as the contracts ( and clients) are solid with money to pay ship conversation.

One is so big with so many idle ships that it must keep doing big, unfavorable deals because keeping the business afloat and running is more important than making money.

Debt is the stone that breaks our necks.

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Posted by Mabel > May 6, 2019 11:49 PM | Report Abuse

@alivetoinvest BUMI ARMADA Trading at 2x cents IS A ONCE IN A LIFETIME OPPORTUNITY.

2018 was the year of Impairments for Armada.
2019 the profits will SHOW.

Estimated Conservative EPS FY2019 = 7 cents

P/E Ratio Based on YINSON = 20x

TP RM 1.40 starting from next quarter released at end of May 2019

Let's go for this!

It's not new. Warren buffet has been doing this for a long time, like I said many times before, ALL investing is based on some form of value. In the end price is what you pay, value is what you get. If you are willing to pay a certain amount today to get big benefits in the future, then it is good.

There are pe50 companies, and there are pe50 COMPANIES.