This right here is why I still hold QL from 1 billion company to 11 billion, topglov from 1 billion to 9 billion and yinson from 1 billion to today 7 billion.

You do not buy a stock for trailing yearly profits, you buy it for future returns.

Did I know today yinson will be winning marlim, whale park and Ghana fpso tenders for 8 billion USD in charter contracts? No. How could I? But the numbers and trajectory of their project wins, their capital position with banks, their management story is told by the numbers and give me confidence.

Did I know ql was going to take up family mart franchise, move from chicken eggs into seafood and surimi and plantations? No. Of course not. But same with the trajectory and numbers are telling you a story about the business.

You keep using just 1 metric PE to justify buying INSAS and not investing in QL.

The numbers of INSAS is telling you a story. Why for 5 years is the share price dropping and rangebound below rm1, while the NTA goes up to 2.4? Until today you cannot answer this question. Or you refuse to answer the reasoning behind many investors including kyy, OTB, myself and many institutions sold and refuse to buy INSAS, even as the "NTA" keeps going up.

But yes. You do not buy a company for the trailing yearly profits, but you make a qualitative judgement on the future yearly profits based on the numbers and performance of the company. FYI NTA calculations and debt also do not factor into in price/earnings.

And a simple basic logic:

For a fixed deposit you will always pay P/E = 1. aka 100% certainty on future returns.

For stocks the pe is volatile, as everyone has an intrinsic idea of how much a company can earn in the future. Aka valuation will always change and expand.

NO ONE IS WILLING TO OVERPAY FOR INSAS BECAUSE WE KNOW THE PAST HISTORY, THE PAST BAGGAGE, AND THE FUTURE OF INSAS. NOT EVEN RAIDER AND SSLEE. WHY? IF YOU ARE CONFIDENT RETAINED EARNINGS WILL BE RM5 3-5 YEARS FROM NOW, WHY SELL AT 80 CENTS? WHY DOESN'T INSTITUTION BUY UNTIL REALIZED VALUE OF RM1.25 AND ABOVE? 100% RETURN NOT GOOD? UNLESS IT IS THEORETICAL AND NOT CERTAINTY.

FOR QL WHY AM I AND OTHER INSTITUTIONS HOLDING AT PE51? AND GIVING REALIZED VALUE TO QL AT 11 BILLION? ARE WE BUILDING CASTLES AND CHASING NUMBERS IN THE AIR? OBVIOUSLY NOT.

The simple fact is this: everyone knows QL can perform with a wonderful management. Everyone also knows their total addressable market is so wide ranging and simple to figure out. In fact, as long as you have eggs, seafood and palm oil, someone will buy it from you ( just price is issue, not demand). So when CEO believes QL future revenue within 10 years at 8 billion a year and 600 million in net earnings, from his past performance it is easier to believe than INSAS working out valuations reaching 1.7 billion.

That is why institutions hold. That is why ql owners holding. That is why I hold. Future returns, not trailing yearly profits.

As for INSAS, you are not buying for future profits. You are buying for past glories.

Trapped in the past.

>>>>>>>

trailing yearly profits.

Good luck on the punt. 8.50 by end of August? OK!

I know exactly why INSAS is being valued so low for the last 5 years. It is not a short term depression which will quickly recover in time.

No, just like Chernobyl this is a structural problem.

This is the most childish thinking I have heard. It is sad because I used to think that sslee being a smart man might have learned a little bit about running a business. Sadly, working for other bosses all his life, being in a safe mode where he doesn't have to worry about where his next paycheck is coming from he has lost his sense of danger.

Theoretically what he say is true ( on accounting books).

The question remains: why does no one do this is practical real life?

Answer: if it was practical the owners would have found a way to borrow money/JV and do the deal directly to take the company private. ( Spare me the management bullshit they feed you). Many companies like WEIDA etc have taken their companies off listing status with no issue.

But no bank will borrow that kind of imaginary returns. If they wanted to, th and howey could aggressively reward themselves ( and all shareholders) by giving out extra dividends for them to build up war chest to privatise.

You still stick on quantitative details but lack the qualitative details.

For qualitative you are surprisingly naive. You accept that it is ok for management unable to buy shares because they will trigger MGO( and they do not have finances to handle the mandatory offer) but do not consider the dynamics of this issue.

Are you naive to think that minority investors to agree for management to buy shares back and no need to trigger mgo? Let them build their position up to 51% and control the company in everything but in name and do away like protasco?

Your story behind the numbers is nothing but MORE NUMBERS.

Tell me what is happening at INSAS. Why is the revenue and profits dropping? Why is the investments in new gruesome businesses at the cost of selling golden egg inari? Most importantly, tell me WHY IS THE MARKET VALUING A COMPANY WORRY 1.7 BILLION AT ONLY 562 MILLION? The numbers tell you a story. You ignore the story at your own cost.

To understand qualitative versus quantitative thinking, I recommend you to watch Chernobyl the 5 part series from HBO. As a chemical engineer I am sure you would love the very in detail plant operations and technical stories that pull you in.

And you will finally understand how blindly following numbers and instructions without understanding the context in which the situation arose, aka making the numbers fit your story caused one of the most horrific nuclear disasters in human history.

Thank you.

>>>>>>>>

Sslee Dear all,
The story behind INSAS Balance Sheet Numbers:
As at 31/03/2019
Total non-current assets RM 825,432,000
Total current assets RM 1,531,914,000
TOTAL LIABILITIES RM 632,992,000
Number of shares issued: 663,006,342 (excluding 30,327,291 treasury shares)
Close market price of INSAS RM 0.815 on 5th July 2019
Market Capital: RM 540,350,168

What story the above number tell you is theoretically: You need RM 540,350,168 to bought over INSAS and then you only need to liquidate RM (632,992,000+540,350,168) =1,173,342,168 of Current asset to pay for your purchase and settle the total liabilities.
And you will get for free of charge:
Total non-current assets of RM 825,432,000
Current assets of RM (1,531,914,000 -1,173,342,168) = 358,570,000

Thank you
05/07/2019 8:52 PM

This is probably the only Malaysian o&g Bursa company that doesn't have any business in Malaysia. 99 % of their jobs is international.

Even their first local job in Malaysian waters is because THHE couldn't do the job despite years of work, and jx Nippon decided to award to YINSON which is now doing it ahead of schedule and on budget.

The financial strength is strong. Their market reputation is exemplary, and their international team of Norwegian management coupled with Chinese savvy is impressive.

They will be taking the Brazilian marlim 1 contract as the only tenderer, whale park fpso as the only tenderer and most likely The Ghana project as there only tenderer with local experience.

Stockraider attend MLM think he is getting a good deal for cheap price. Meanwhile, he is actually being conned by JJPTR that he is offering for deep value, while actual fact is his investment stuck is twilight zone for 5 years.

Only after fail on short term trading mechanics then he go around saying he is a long term investing. But in reality, his money is stuck in lala land.


>>>>>>>>

Posted by stockraider > Jul 5, 2019 1:39 PM | Report Abuse

Remember this loh...!!

Have faith loh...if u buy something for Rm 0.30 for a value of Rm 1.00 surely this is good investment principle logically loh...!!

Do not believe these conman Philip & 3iii loh...!!

Your good conservative parent always taught u to buy something of value & not to overpay, and Insas is the the margin of safety investment your parent had been teaching u all this while loh...!!

Unless u r very rich and have alot of money to splurge, u must manage your monies conservatively in order to succeed & not overpay like QL Pe 50x buy loh....!!

This is the difference between me and you. My remark was meant as a qualitative statement, whereas you only think on the quantitative.

Instead if reading the numbers, understand for once what story the numbers are trying to tell you. Don't be so simpleminded as stockraider just to parrot out numbers.

My qualitative statement is meant to teach you and remind you why INSAS shares have been depressed for so long, because you seem to be the only one to not care or want to understand why INSAS shares has been a such low levels not for weeks or months but in fact for years!.

If I had to hold INSAS shares for so long without the undervaluation being balanced, in can only mean one thing.

There is a structural fault with INSAS.

Or did you think that for the last 5 years everyone else is wrong and you are suddenly right on the valuation of INSAS?

Come on, please.

If you don't know who the Patsy is at the poker table after 30 minutes of playing, then you are the Patsy.

>>>>>>>>>

Sslee Dear Philip,
Just need to read the Balance Sheet of 2009 and 2019 to know where did total profit of 949M go?

Thank you
05/07/2019 1:00 PM

Dear sslee, I advise you to put the pen and calculator first behind and don't take it out until you understand a little bit better how your business works, then you take it out because you can spin any sort of value to the stock as for your opinion of how the business is going to do in future.

Do you know why Berkshire dropped book value calculations this year annual meeting? It is because NTA and book value alone is a very poor indicator of the strength of a business.

Warren was referring exactly to this particular type of business INSAS, and why business performance comes first and valuations then second.

1. Very simple, how easy is it to sell 600 million inari share off market it on market without crashing it's value? Are you naive enough to think you will get full value for it compared to current share price, or there will be a big buyer for inari share. Face facts, big buyers will want a discount, just as buyers for INSAS are valuing it at a discount. Only amateurs think that balance sheet on paper and real life valuations are the same.

2. Book value of INSAS is 1.7 billion. Are you willing to pay up for INSAS shares? Why not? And why do you think other people will pay 1.7 billion for INSAS shares when they are getting 13 million a year in dividends? Preference shares? Why?

3. Is it growing? Yes. Will it continue to grow? Yes. Has it grown for past 5 years? Yes. Do you know exactly what the business if QL will perform 5 years from now? No one knows. But what certainty do I have? Every year the business is growing more than it did last year. So how do YOU know it will not improve it's double digits growth prediction by QL CEO for the next 5 years?

How long have you and raider u held INSAS? You attempt to say you bought a wonderful business, when there performance has not even been there, revenue dropping, earnings dropping.

And you think it will be a good earning company in future?


>>>>>>>>>

Sslee Dear Philip,
How do you value your investment holding (quoted securities) asset?
So INSAS Investment holding asset (quoted securities and bonds), bank deposit, money lending and Inari (which generating dividend/interest/income/share of profit less loss) are considered as rerating of existing assets?
Do you know Insas book value of RM1.10 ten years ago, has increased by a total of RM1.44 to RM2.54 in 2018, or a high CAGR of 8.8% over the last 10 years?
Is revenue growth more important than profit growth? When the fact is INSAS derived profit growth from share of profit of associate companies.
Do you know associate company only given a book value of RM 357,628,000 in INSAS balance sheet? So how are you going to value 600+ million of Inari share?
Do not just argue for argument’s sake, please take out a pen and calculator and work out the Net Current Assets Value, Graham net-net value and etc
“The success in investing is not from buying things good, but buying things well” Howard Marks

Note: Your QL is now market cap 11 billion company with net profit to shareholder for the past 5 year as below (‘000):
216,743 206,236 195,921 192,079 191,400
Is this profit growth satisfactory and who is building castle in the air?

Thank you
05/07/2019 8:55 AM

Haha stockraider wants to win at all costs. I can respect that. Any more good calls sifu raider? End of the month insas 90 cents?

Again with bullshit and talk cock and mixing lies without looking at the truth in totality.

YEAR REVENUE PROFIT
2019* 133* 64* (dividend paid 13.26 million)
2018 341 90 (dividend paid 6.63 million)
2017 347 180
2016 272 77
2015 406 91
2014 276 160
2013 297 62
2012 235 12
2011 235 103
2010 423 53
2009 241 51

3285 949?? (WHERE DID THE MONEY GO?)

let me ask you a very simple question, from the reports total profit is 949M. how much is being burnt away in frivolous activities and loss making business. How many dividend is given out to long suffering investors? if insas so profitable, why are they giving out so much preference shares and interest payments without any new growth triggers? business is on a downward curve.

RAIDER BUY BASED STOCKS ON THE FUTURE PERFORMANCE OR BASED ON THE PAST RESULTS?

>>>>>>>>>

I don understand why u say INSAS badly manage when it grows its profits & shareholder funds at a compound rate of 9% pa for the past 10 yr without fail mah...!!

So you admit that you only like to dream and never base your comments on reality?

I SEE. SO STOCKRAIDER ONLY KNOW HOW TO PROVOKE AND MAKE NONSENSE COMMENTS WITHOUT THINKING FIRST?

NICE DOG, WOOF WOOF.

MY DOG ALSO BARKS A LOT, BUT NEVER USES THE BRAIN TO THINK FIRST BEFORE BARKING.

ARE YOU A DOG YEAR TOO?

>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Posted by stockraider > Jul 5, 2019 10:36 AM | Report Abuse
This Philip is sohai loh...!! If Dgsb can double in 1 mth is it not every investor dream leh ??

This shows that insas has invested in a gem loh....!!

I don understand why u say INSAS badly manage when it grows its profits & shareholder funds at a compound rate of 9% pa for the past 10 yr without fail mah...!!

Surely at this type of growth insas is well manage mah....!!

Why shareholder funds or net assets growth, this is what warren buffet measure Berkshire hathaway performance every yr loh...!!

Posted by (US/CHN trade war doesn't matter) Philip > Jul 5, 2019 10:27 AM | Report Abuse

this is what warren buffet says about companies that are good but under bad management. And make no mistake, the management of insas and DGSB is not a good one. What happens after disposal? they throw the money again into unproven new business units like food and manufacturing. An IT company?

https://youtu.be/T1D9AlhNwAQ?t=8144


AND MAKE NO MISTAKE RAIDER, I AM NOT LAUGHING AT DGSB. I AM DIRECTLY LAUGHING AT YOU/

LAUGHING AT YOU BECAUSE YOU LIKE TO POST LONG LONG MESSAGE.

LIKE TO TALK COCK AS IF YOU ARE SO SMART AND OTHERS SOHAI.

LIKE TO POST SO SMART MESSAGE.

BUT NEVER READ ANY REPORTS OR ANNUAL INFORMATION AT ALL.

SIMPLY SAY DGSB SHARE PRICE JUMP FROM 4.5 SEN TO 9 SEN.

WITHOUT READING FIRST TO SEE WHAT HAPPEN.

WTHOUT UNDERSTAND FIRST BEFORE COMMENT.

JUST SIMPLY TAKE A SHIT EVERYWHERE AND LIE TO PEOPLE.

YES STOCKRAIDER I AM LAUGHING AT YOU.

AND ONLY YOU.

WHO DON'T KNOW WHAT IS MEANT BY REVERSE SPLIT.

BUT THINK SHARE PRICE DOUBLE IN 1 MONTH.

BUT OF COURSE THAT IS HOW MOST COMPANIES CON NEW INVESTORS TO MAKE THEM THINK BUSINESS SUDDENLY VERY GOOD.

BUT MARKET CAP AND SHARE PRICE STILL THE SAME, ONLY HALF THE NOSH AND EQUALIZE THE SHARE PRICE.

SO FUNNY, DIDN'T KNOW STOCKRAIDER IS A NEW INVESTOR UNTIL TODAY. BUT STILL DONT ADMIT SHAME AND DONT KNOW WHAT IS A 2:1 REVERSE SPLT.

I AM LAUGHING AT YOU.

but more, i am sad for you. you think dgsb is doing good. but do you think the money is going to you? no way my office boy. it is going to another weird investment food and manufacturing, which is a totally different industry.
If Google decide one day to sell all their IT business and buy over kenny rogers and lafarge to " expand their business", do you smile and laugh and clap?

Clap Clap Clap.

You should be asking the very first question, WHY FOOD?

this is what warren buffet says about companies that are good but under bad management. And make no mistake, the management of insas and DGSB is not a good one. What happens after disposal? they throw the money again into unproven new business units like food and manufacturing. An IT company?

https://youtu.be/T1D9AlhNwAQ?t=8144


AND MAKE NO MISTAKE RAIDER, I AM NOT LAUGHING AT DGSB. I AM DIRECTLY LAUGHING AT YOU/

LAUGHING AT YOU BECAUSE YOU LIKE TO POST LONG LONG MESSAGE.

LIKE TO TALK COCK AS IF YOU ARE SO SMART AND OTHERS SOHAI.

LIKE TO POST SO SMART MESSAGE.

BUT NEVER READ ANY REPORTS OR ANNUAL INFORMATION AT ALL.

SIMPLY SAY DGSB SHARE PRICE JUMP FROM 4.5 SEN TO 9 SEN.

WITHOUT READING FIRST TO SEE WHAT HAPPEN.

WTHOUT UNDERSTAND FIRST BEFORE COMMENT.

JUST SIMPLY TAKE A SHIT EVERYWHERE AND LIE TO PEOPLE.

YES STOCKRAIDER I AM LAUGHING AT YOU.

AND ONLY YOU.

WHO DON'T KNOW WHAT IS MEANT BY REVERSE SPLIT.

BUT THINK SHARE PRICE DOUBLE IN 1 MONTH.

BUT OF COURSE THAT IS HOW MOST COMPANIES CON NEW INVESTORS TO MAKE THEM THINK BUSINESS SUDDENLY VERY GOOD.

BUT MARKET CAP AND SHARE PRICE STILL THE SAME, ONLY HALF THE NOSH AND EQUALIZE THE SHARE PRICE.

SO FUNNY, DIDN'T KNOW STOCKRAIDER IS A NEW INVESTOR UNTIL TODAY. BUT STILL DONT ADMIT SHAME AND DONT KNOW WHAT IS A 2:1 REVERSE SPLT.

I AM LAUGHING AT YOU.

but more, i am sad for you. you think dgsb is doing good. but do you think the money is going to you? no way my office boy. it is going to another weird investment food and manufacturing, which is a totally different industry.
If Google decide one day to sell all their IT business and buy over kenny rogers and lafarge to " expand their business", do you smile and laugh and clap?

Clap Clap Clap.

You should be asking the very first question, WHY FOOD?

>>>>>>>>

Building castles in the sky. Revenue has been steadily dropping. Returns are a non cash rerating of assets and not due to operating profits. The reinvestments of dividends which should be put into worthy businesses that generate every more cash flow or to buy back stock to reward investors, none are being implemented. Instead loss making pipe dreams form the basis of new invested businesses, burning returns and profits.

Yes, insas is a regular mini Berkshire.

Instead of saying insas is the most undervalued stock in Bursa, raider does not sell to go there extra step and find out why Bursa investors are not putting money into INSAS and choose to stay away instead.

In fact sslee and raider has never once touched on the cons of the investment but choose to only look at the pros of INSAS.

Never look to share price to explain how your business is doing. Look at what the business is doing, that explains the share price.

Share price up doesn't always mean business is good. Share price down doesn't always man business is bad.

The one and only way share price is guaranteed to go up is when the revenue and cash generated versus the debt and share dilution deceased next year compared to this year.

Will INSAS major share holder do an mgo at INSAS "fair value"? Impossible. They cheap.
Will INSAS get a major contract/major rerating of inar/big IPO this year? Impossible.
Will numoni suddenly have widespread usage versus alipay/wechat/boost? Impossible. Loss making.
Will biotech suddenly make money and a huge discovery? Impossible. It is based in dead town Brunei without a full research support from peers in Europe, USA and Singapore. Loss making.
Will tribecar be profitable? Most likely never. If similar to grab/Uber, you will have the increase if revenue without the comfort of profits for a very very long time. Yes loss making and cash burning.
Will their clothing line every pick up? No. The designs are not innovative. The pricing is bad. They have no intention of using internet to do online/offline retailing. Answer is: impossible in comparison to retail Giants Uniqlo, h&m and Zara which is benchmark. Lower prices, better service, better locations, better designs.
How efficient is the returns from the stockbroking/financial management company? Answer: do you use their services? Most likely not. Majority of traders use Jupiter, rakuten, or any of the major banks to do their share trading services. The days of huge returns from being a remiser is long long gone.

What clarity do you have that INSAS will double it's revenues/earnings next year? None. Revenue, can flow and earnings are dropping. The only value (trap) you have is the perceived value of inari shares. Which they are selling every quarter along with the dividends to pay for their operational needs and fund loss making ventures. One day the golden egg will be gone.

These are the cons of INSAS, the mini Berkshire Hathaway.

Not a single growth trigger in place. Only rerating of existing assets.

Dumpster diving, thinking that you have found deep value that only you know of and hoping one day other people will catch on. The last time insas broke rm1 was in 2014. Waiting 5 years for insas to go back to rm1 and getting 2 cent dividend in between ( which is unsustainable).

I remembered when I bought yinson at 1.15, and they started the fpso business but doing a 3:2 rights issue at rm1 to raise cash for business expansion. I bought in and kept faith, knowing that YINSON treated me as a partner/owner. Today yinson is going to be a 7 billion dollar company, while INSAS forever remains a smallcap and " most undervalued company in Bursa". I think in January yinson had shown that it was far more undervalued than INSAS, but people are slowly realizing its intrinsic value. Ql at pe50 for so long is also for to investors realizing its intrinsic value and not selling for any reason whatever. Topglov at pe32 is far more undervalued than INSAS.

Let's face an ugly truth: insas at pe6 is simply because no one believes the business will amount to anything and grow further.

>>>>>>>>

stockraider Revisiting an old article from sslee on Insas. All the fundamental finding still valid loh!
This stock is making a 2nd attempt to break Rm 0.90 over the next 1 to 2 mths loh...!!

Raider see eventual target above Rm 1.00 by year end or by the latest chinese new year loh..!!

Calvin tan does not know all this things. He doesn't know that just because company sell assets doesn't mean they will give anything to minority shareholder. He doesn't realize that management who treat you as a partner/owner rather than an annoyance/necessary risk is the difference between a growing dividend every year and high director salary but no dividends to minority owners.

In short Calvin is a numbers fellow, but not a business guy. He looks for simpler metrics like NTA and assets, but he doesn't look too what the numbers tell you about the performance of the company, the attitude of the management and the long term prospects.

A garbage dump searcher always finds free stuff but never find treasure.

>>>>>>>>>>

Posted by whkwoon > Jun 28, 2019 9:55 AM | Report Abuse

Stupid counter, the last AGM last less than 20 Min, after keeping for than 15 years I cut loss RM50K 2 months ago, never trust this shares again

Ya gah. True gah. This young man smarter than Calvin gah.

I have no issue with cash call if it is used for business expansion or to increase cash levels for hunting big game.

I have a problem with cash call if it is used to pay debt it interest covers. It shows that management has not yet learned their lesson and expects father mother to pay for their mistakes while they proceed
to make more mistakes at your cost.
>>>>>

Posted by Icon8888 > Jul 4, 2019 11:25 AM | Report Abuse

fools and the mass knee jerk reaction every time there is a cash call

a contrarian investor that can think independently will see the nuances

and act differently

Need time and effort and patience.

You think mix rice with water can straight away eat? Need to cook and wait.

All you can do is make sure got rice in pot, got electricity and got water, with right amount of time, you will have your rice to eat.

Hurrying the process won't help.

Advice given without experience is simply assumptions.

Stockraider and Calvin tan says YINSON is overvalued and you should sell it to buy sapura and bumi Armada. Not much difference between those companies except luck. Well I should thank me lucky stars. A stock that is not a small cap that can be easily manipulated by kyy and influenced by otb and fooled by calvintaneng.

A wonderful company succeeds not because of share price manipulation, but because experts realize the future earnings and growth of YINSON is there. Who needs local buyers when foreign institutions and funds are buying in bulk. EPF can sell every share and still will not effect YINSON business in the future.

But maybe you should listen to stockraider and sell yinson to buy sapura and Armada.

This provides the clarity of income stream in the future. I it's long term chances.

But then again, like I con8888 likes to say, what is the moat in this business? Why good? Anyone with enough money and engineers can do this business. Nothing special.

So I rather keep my capital invested elsewhere.

>>>>>>>>


Patrick13 Many ppl say Cypark is good company, but comment that they have high debts and negative cash flows.
But look carefully, they are going to change business model from EPCC to recurring income. Once WTE and LSS all completed, they will get concession assets to generate long term profits and ease their debt burdens.
Next, they are higher chance to win the bid from LSS3.
22/06/2019 3:03 PM

Again with a roundabout Buddha remark. Obviously you have to compare with peers, otherwise how would you know if the company is a good company, a gruesome one, it a value trap if you do not have benchmarks.

How can you value a phone company without first having a benchmark in Huawei, apple and Samsung electronics?

If you do not use industry categorization to value, if you were a banker circle of competence, do you then use your banker mental models of accounting profits and losses only to invest in scentex?

If that is the case, I wish you all the best.

My advice, do not use circle of competence in one industry to benchmark returns in another.

Maybe you should stick to reading and not put money into the stock market. Your investing method would give you too many false positives, aka you won't realize the too good to be true investments, if you don't analyze the competitors and their returns out there.


>>>>>>>>>>

Posted by Ricky Yeo > Jul 3, 2019 11:00 AM | Report Abuse

Why does investing has to be "comparing to every similar company in the category"? A dollar of investment is a dollar of investment regardless of whether that dollar is invested in a property stock or a packaging stock, so why do you want to compare [similar] company in the category?

Comparing similar companies in an industry is useful to create contrast, to find out what things a company is doing differently from others, but investing is not bounded by industry categorisation, but circle of competence.

Comparing layhong management to QL management shows how smart stockraider is. He didn't understand how I bought ql when it was around 1b networth and watch my investment grow to 11b.

Even today he measures performance with share price movement instead of business growth of revenue and earnings.

Small office boy thinking, forever only look at what is in front.

Share price is volatile. Competitive business advantage is not.

Rumor mungers and lesser minds would be the first to repeat rumours that Gkent is a crony company.

Quick thinkers would have pointed out that all the rail tenders gkent participated in was an open tender and they were the lowest bidder.

Cronies usually cover the profits with directly awarded contracts or bring the highest bidder in open tender. Ergo fair game for MACC. So far I have not heard a single blip.

So where is the crony stock remark substantiated from? I have tried to find out but have yet to find any proof other than the fact they played golf together.

If that was the case, if I shook hands with azmin, does that mean we are gay partners together? Such a horrible world, politics.


>>>>>>>>>

con8888 Crony stock
03/07/2019 6:07 PM

Need to understand what bullshit is. Get lucky and hit bad luck? Do you even know the difference between FPSO and OSV and OMV? Maybe if you read a little bit and study a little more you will understand the difference between a carrier and a tugboat.

Not much difference my ass.

One specialise in FPSO the other one has 40% utilisation rate. Other than both works oil and gas business and is a ship at sea, they are worlds apart.

Like that might as well day not much difference between ramli burger and McDonald's. Both serve food.

But coming from someone who thinks INSAS is a Berkshire in bursa I got nothing much to say.

>>>>>>>>>

Posted by stockraider > Jul 3, 2019 4:57 PM | Report Abuse

U need to understand there is not much different between Armada v Yinson loh....!!

Just that Yinson got lucky whereas Armada was hit by bad luck mah...!!

Isn't the very fact that Gkent won a contract versus other competitors proof that it had a competitive advantage? There has to be a moat involved in getting to be the PDP of such a major project. And obviously there has to be some moat involved in getting the new fixed contract.

Previously, the contract as a PDP which involved consulting, monitoring and supervision was at a fixed rate ( consultant fee).In 2015, Prasarana appointed Malaysian Resources Corp Bhd (MRCB) and George Kent (M) Bhd as the PDP for the LRT 3 project at an approved construction budget of RM9bil. The PDP fee for the LRT 3 project, at its construction cost of RM15bil, would amount to RM900mil.

Now that Gkent has become the maincon and no longer need to worry about other parts, I am sure they will be looking at an even bigger payday.


>>>>>>>>

Gkent had not proven any competitive advantages other than contract was already awarded to Gkent. ( This is the very definition of a moat, when you can get something that others can't)

With a weird mindset like this somehow I highly doubt investorking has the financial capability to buy 6 million shares of armada.

EPF has 3rd party fund managers, different investing professionals with different mindsets. It is not one entity that buys and sell, or even one lead professional named Mr. Teffub bin Nerraw. It is a collection underpaid investment bankers who are closely monitored against front running and have specific kpi which is not necessarily to make money but more on diversification, safety of capital, fixed selling despite profit/loss to pay for dividend, and fully invested in market.


>>>>>>>>>>>>

Posted by InvestorKING > Jul 2, 2019 6:37 PM | Report Abuse

Actually it's AK who is the main shark collecting all those shorties shares in public then give back some to his partner , EPF, in order to attract more stupid shorties to short thier shares to AK operator

This sounds like a wise statement until you realize it is means exactly nothing and is a roundabout answer from someone who is more academically inclined than practical experience.

Investing is a concise, analytical activity. Why make it sound so mysterious and vaguely religious?

If you understand business, you will understand that there is no business on earth that has no competitors, peers or similar companies doing the same thing. In short, all business falls under a category or industry.

The challenge is to analyze a business and compare it to peers in the same category/industry/specialization and find out it's moat or competitive advantage versus it's competitors.

Simplified, how does it increase its profit and revenue and grow its market share. By taking it from other people in similar business.

Therefore: categorize.

For scientex you take all the film manufacturers in its industry and compare the costs to produce, the volume they produce versus the price to sell. Then you compare it with peers to understand how efficient they are as buyers will always buy based on a price/quality curve.

Then you take the properties they develop, find out the selling price, the average selling prices of housing in the area, then look at their location/average price and compare that with their profit margins vs that of other competing property developers. Then you will know exactly how efficient their property development eye, marketing and selling strength overall.

After you have dissected each of their business units and categorised each growth pattern Vs peers, they you can understand the entire company as a whole.

Reduce categorization? This is a very Buddha remark which I can't grasp. Investing is literally about picking up the best potential business based on current price/ future growth risk and comparing to every similar company in the category. I don't know any other way to value a business.

Can you elaborate on " understanding structure of the business?" And "seeing a company as it is?" Really interested to learn more.


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Posted by Ricky Yeo > Jun 27, 2019 12:55 PM | Report Abuse

My suggestion is this: Try to see things as it is, reduce categorisation. Why do human categories things? To reduce complexity and ambiguity. To make faster decision 'property company, worth PE XX; O&G: Cyclical etc". We do that to companies. We do that to ourselves. "I am a Value Investor", or "I am a growth investors". You put yourself in a box. Sometimes that works, but there is a great cost when things go wrong.

So see a company as it is. Without throwing them into buckets like property, O&G, tech etc. See it as it is by understanding the structure of the business and how much future cash flow can it can generate.

But since I'm getting in the mood to humiliate and make fun of Stockraider again, let me elucidate exactly what moat means I'm Warren buffet owns words.

" Remember that a competitive advantage is essentially any factor that allows a company to provide a good or service that is similar to those offered by its competitors and, at the same time, outperform those competitors in profits. "

That is essentially a moat you retarded office boy! I'm his own words.

Geico moat is its low cost.
Coca cola moat is its taste and branding.
Midamerican moat is its high switching costs.
3M moat is its huge list of patents.
Google moat is its efficient services.

If your only concept of moats is only that of intangible assets (patents, license, brand recognition) then you really have to fucken read a lot more.

" Anybody can make a search engine. You got yahoo, altavista, Netscape, so many bigger and richer companies. What is so special about Google?" This was said 20 years ago.

If you had attended a single Berkshire annual meeting you would know that Warren buffet thinks the way I do. I learned from the best. But then again Stockraider who thinks dgsb reverse split is double profit in a month, hengyuan valuation is 35, and buys all the wrong stocks, nothing more will I say. Whatever he thinks it's true he will believe it so.

Moat is simply a competitive advantage. People who don't understand Warren and think moat simply means brand strength simply do not know what is meant by moat.

There are many different types of moats or business advantage.

Berkshire Hathaway a management "moat".
McDonald's has a location "moat".
Coca cola has a brand "moat".
Swiss RE has a cash board "moat".

Gkent has a small moat, but bigger than others in Bursa.

The moat is simply this: when bn government rule, they choose gkent for their rail systems ( some say crony, no proof no macc?). Now that pH government rule, they still choose gkent for their rail systems ( some say new crony, no proof no MACC).

But what is the moat therein? It is a mix of having a good cash balance to do jobs which not many companies can handle (200 million cash is a "moat" by itself), experience and a good track record of having over projects on schedule and on budget is also definitely a "moat". Having a direct political line to the ruling block is always a "moat" ( see myeg, until they lost the moat). Having an engineering team with a good set of experience and huge reference of past projects is also a "moat".

If your only concept of moat is just brand labeling, then you have much to learn on finding companies that grow into great companies that end up as wonderful companies.

Then again for someone who could not differentiate between a yinson and a bumi armada in terms of long term prospects, I have very little to say.

Gkent is doing something very few companies in Malaysia can execute, and is being valued at rock bottom prices despite no debt and 200 million in cash.

Risk versus reward for gkent is clear as day.

Some people say gkent no moat is an ass company. Luckily he got a lot of followers.

So now QL practices accounting scandals and is the same as sapura and bumi Armada? Wonders never cease.

Stockraider talks but acts differently. Dgsb 4.5 cents to 9 centre he say share price double in a month. Hengyuan he say intrinsic value at 35. Sapura he say is going up half a cent every day, very soon will be rm3 in 3 years 3 months.

Why did he keep posting and acting as if he never loses money? With his strategy he is almost guaranteed to lose money.

To be honest, I am sorry to hear that. I have also fallen for such scams before so I know exactly how that feels. Worse is when I did it in 1997 and 2000. Lesson learned.

One thing I learned from Charlie munger is that there is a story behind everything.

Every accounting report, every financial report is designed to tell you a story about the business. It is not wise to project too much about the business, not is it wise to take the numbers in vacuum.

Charlie munger is famous for his concept of mental models, a latticework of common operating principles that we use to solve problems and understand situations.

The first rule is then not to take numbers and results in vacuum, but to link it back to other qualitative aspects like market demand, a sudden break in the Brazil dam that increase iron ore costs, the rise of technology, a market disruption etc.

It then becomes clear that instead of taking the easy Graham road of looking for the proverbial 50 cents to the dollar business(quantitative analysis of number crunching), we dig for the for truth behind that business (qualitative analysis) is the imbalance temporary, is there a market disruptor, did the dog die and Mr Wick coming over, etc.

Never stop learning my young friend, don't think that investing is such a simple road that just use numbers and projections to get the results you need. Investing I have learned requires understanding all the mental models from all disciplines (economics, biological, mathematics, physics, chemistry, architecture, accountings) and use everything to give you that intuitive feeling how a business would perform over the long term.

Just ask Charlie. He was a lawyer turned architect turned investor who got a military scholarship in physics, and attended class in biology and chemistry just for fun.

A modern day Benjamin Franklin.

If you don't know how to recognize competitive business advantage with your ass, perhaps you need to use your head instead. Name one other water meter manufacturer design and build in Bursa. Go ahead, I'll wait.

For metering business alone which they have very few competitors and you say is boring and simple ( the kind Peter lynch and Warren buffet love the best) it gives you guaranteed 120 million and 20m pbt every year like clockwork. If it was just that then I would not be investing in gkent. But they went from there to building water treatment plants in New Guinea, and adding staff to become a rail specialist contractor and hospital builder.

But of course people like icon thinks this is easy and anyone can do.

But then again he is far too optimistic.

Kraken improves from 20bpd to 33 bpd he thinks it is a roaring improving success ( charter requirement is for 80 bpd).

One thing retired engineers and investment bankers lack is an understanding of the business itself. They concentrate far too much on the numbers and projections and less on what the numbers are telling you about the business.

But that is always the problem, read a few days and Maybank and CIMB analysts thinks he is an expert on FPSO business and knows how armada will perform in the future. I have held yinson for almost 7 years now and visited FPSO and oil rig platforms and I still have no idea sometimes how profitable the contracts really are.

But most analysts are suddenly genius after a few days of analysing I'm sure.

Kudos icon8888, you are the best, everyone else is stupid and doesn't know what a moat is. Anyway you are definitely right, gkent got no most, I'm using a small position on margin in it, and we will have to monitor the performance as it goes along. Time will tell.

But you seem very smart, a solid question for you then. I do want to know what you think.

Today gkent is doing 400 million revenue and 80 million net profit. They have 200 million in cash, positive cash flow and no debt. Core Management has not changed since the 90's.

What will be the impact on Gkent in the next 1-2 years with tender renegotiation of 11.86(50% to mrcb) to gkent bottom line?

Will they double their net profit and revenue to 800 million/160 million in npt from lrt3, mrt,2 hospital handover and new water treatment project? Or will it remain stagnant?

In 2018 when they did 616 million and 124m in net profit share price is rm4.

What will the business be like in 2020? Still same as 2019?

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Posted by Icon8888 > Jul 2, 2019 6:27 AM | Report Abuse

In latest Q, metering PBT was RM5 mil only.

10 years ago it was making RM5 mil per quarter also

Moat ?

Moat my ass

Very funny comments, if we were talking about a 200 million microcap stock I would totally understand. This however is an 11 billion ringgit company.

Maybe the angles you are looking at is merely quantitative, you have probably missed the qualitative aspect of the business.

Stockraider has been wishing for the price to crash for a very long time now. It still eludes him.

As for QL, it is a legacy stock for me which I started with 200k of my long term savings. My returns today is a result of quarterly top up into the busines. I have never asked anyone to buy QL, but use it more as an example of what a wonderful company is and why I continue to hold it as the dividend and share price increases year after year after year.

It is my first example of a ten bagger stock, followed by topglove which is also a ten bagger stock and now followed by YINSON which has now a 6 bagger stock( beginning of the year was rm4.08, today is 6.30) and I'm pretty sure it will be my next ten bagger stock sooner or later. I started it at 1.15 as well.

Each of which I continually add on my position every quarter instead of selling for quick short profits which I then lose in the next big "bet".

Few bets. Big bets. Infrequent bets.

This is my quarter report of my performance and what I think about the companies I invest in, and if the long term aspects has changed.

For gkent their past 2 quarter reports have said that contributions will come in at the end of the year from lrt3, as LGE only awarded the renegotiated contract at the beginning of the year. In construction it takes time to restart projects and get things going. Nothing has changed, except the share price being multi year lows lrt3 awarded and signed by Gkent and project claims coming in in q4 of 2019 and 2020.

It is pretty much guaranteed that lrt3 revenue and profits will come in. When revenue and profits pick up next year do you think the share price will go up?

If not this year, next year, if not it will be the year after. In either case, what is the possibility that the 11.86 billion will not be paid to gkent/mrcb and we will not be able to enjoy the additional 5.5b revenue/1 billion pbt in the 5 years to come? Additional 200 million from lrt3, mrt, the handover of the 2 new hospitals, water meter business, water treatment plant concession and enough money to bid for more projects in the coming years.

Investing is about the future, not the past. That is what makes it so hard and do worthwhile.

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Outliar Isnt this a quarter report? Nothing especially your discussion on Gkent talks about its quarter, all time low revenue since 2015, all time low NP since 2016, what are your thoughts about that?
01/07/2019 4:23 PM

I started making money in 2009, after losing everything in 2000. There will always be crisis and an opportunity to buy. The difference is how disciplined you are during the crisis. Do you panic? Do you buy more? It is very easy to use hindsight to say I should have bought then. But last year when oil was at its lowest, it becomes hard to throw in money at the lowest point in bursa in October 2018, where everything you touch has made money since then.

Discipline is key.

https://klse.i3investor.com/m/blog/phillipinvesting/188844.jsp

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07/2019 4:23 PM

GrahamNewman And it’s a shame that I did not have a few million to sink in the stock market at year 2000(damn I was still at primary 6 studying math), when it was considered the nadir of the millennium stock market

The buffett- munger camp is more the paying a fair price for a wonderful business.

Your concept of proverbial 50 cents for a dollar comes from the cigar butt strategy used by buffett-graham which I find is a very tired and dangerous strategy to use in Bursa, as the accounting systems here are very lax and there are tons of reverse takeover China companies and lax bursa monitoring so many companies appear to be deep value investments but turn out to be value traps instead.

Qualitative analysis is more difficult than quantitative analysis, but far more rewarding.

My advice is to not look at the numbers but to look deeper and find out what the numbers are telling you about the business.
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camp in terms of investing philosophy, where I try to find the proverbial 50 cents(or less) for a dollar, the qualifying dollar being derived from earning power as oppose to hard assets.

Every time I post and article, here goes stockraider with his rude and brainless comments and reposting entire discussions to drown out other commenters. Very rude and useless comments indeed. But worse when stick raider is someone who thinks sapura is a rm3 company in 3 years despite massive dilution, hengyuan with 35 and dgsb double share value in a month ( it has a reverse split). I wouldn't be commenting so loud if I was him, but he knows no shame.

Sadly, icon8888 still knows nothing about running a business. He thinks with enough resources and a German consultant, he can take over business. What a waste of an engineering degree, the purpose is to teach you to ask the right questions and discern answers.

If it was that simple, someone would have done it by now. Wouldn't you agree?

Armada made the same mistake by throwing resources and hiring not a German, but a Dutch consultant Leon Harland to be the CEO of bumi armada. Sadly it didn't work out so well. Maybe they should have hired icon8888 instead as he seems to think running a business is as easy as 123.

You can check out project wins in hong Kong and Singapore, where they have won the contracts to supply water meters for 4 years running. So yes it can beat China. As for mature business, if you understand non revenue water and smart meters, you will understand why this quarter they increased sales from water meters by a lot.

As for your German consultant etc etc, can you then explain to me why finance minister LGE awarded the 11.86 billion to gkent/mrcb?

The answer though is very simple. There are those who only know how to talk and talk, and there are those who have a proven track record in Malaysia of handing over and completing projects on schedule, within budget and with no problems to end user. George Kent also happens to be cash positive with excess 206 million ringgit in cash to capture more projects, unlike some companies which are working very hard but unable to pay off their debt interest much less the principal amount.

When you have an FPSO rated to produce 80k bpd buy only managed to output from 20k bpd to 33k bpd, then it is a bad sign.

Probably they need that German consultant instead.


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If you talk about it’s water meter business, can it beat China (your favourite argument) ? Even if it can, it is a Mature business with limited growth and scalability. Yawn....

A long time ago I came to the realization that hengyuan is not a wonderful company. Why did I think it so? If it was a wonderful company, Shell would not have sold it at Rock bottom proceed to a China company, and someone somewhere would have paid a higher price for it.

There are however, stockraider who think hengyuan is worth 35.

Investing is the only industry where everyone is an expert. Or thinks they know more than everyone else. I readily admit I know little about running businesses, but I follow the trail, smell and patterns of wonderful businesses.

My job then becomes easier, start with the wonderful business first, then buy a little and follow it along the way, all the whole adding my position on those that keep performing year after year.

I have learned that the share price and dividend increase usually follows in time.

Nothing mind boggling. I can predict with 100% certainly that next year PCHEM revenues and net profit with be far more than today.

How do I know that. PIC, a structure that has more steel than 10 klccs.

Investing is really about discipline and keeping to your core philosophies. My favorite example was when Warren was playing golf with friends and they wanted to put a friendly competition and gamble a few dollars. To their surprise Warren was very vehement on not gambling event a quarter. His explanation was he needed to keep his discipline in all things even the smallest of bets. He loved certainty above else, the lowest risk for the best reward.

Small things lead to bigger attitudes which end up with dangerous decisions.

My advice is to avoid gambling and already taking the road with the least risk to get the highest upside. Safety first.



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Posted by qqq3 > Jul 1, 2019 7:49 AM | Report Abuse

Philips....share market, higher the risk assumed and proven right, higher the rewards.......meaning......if Armada continues to do well and no rights issue, this can be very rewarding..........

Armada 6 billion shares, no one is able to control its price., future events will determine its price.

unlike OTB shares where all u need is a syndicate who says go or not.

I was about to give up on icon8888, but he shows an ability to learn yet.

I am giving up on choivo, who advised against something without a concrete reason why offhand. Investors should keep an open mind, but need to be decisive when looking at business models and valuation.

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Posted by Choivo Capital > Jul 1, 2019 4:29 PM | Report Abuse

I would suggest against it.

Finally, a wonderful stock to intro by Icon8888. Yes I am very familiar with Faber mediserve, which is in charge of all of sabah hospital facilities management. Today it is called sedafiat due to previous link with Musa Aman trying to take a share of the hospital management business, but in the end still need to work with uem group.

Uem sounds like a complex company, but in the end it is a simple system with a huge competitive advantage.

In healthcare management, doctors only know how to operate and treat, but daily operations has to be run by an efficient and well managed team or risk huge dangers to life. There is the building automation system for chiller and lighting, operating theater management with moidture and humidity control for infection, ro water systems, fire fighting systems, waste management systems etc. Very few companies can manage all aspects, and those that have the capability has to keep a diversified assortment of engineering and technical teams.

That is why uem can get jobs in Singapore, India, Indonesia etc because they already have a system in place to diagnose, improve and provide competitive bids.

The same team that knows how to manage the sewage waste plants for hospitals is also the same team that now management the sewage treatment plant for PLUS group.

Similar to George Kent which is a rail specialist, water specialist, uem is also a facilities management specialists. Ironic thing is, most political parties change and fight with each other on who gets the maintenance contract for road pavement, hospital management, infrastructure management etc, but in the end, they still need to work together with edgenta.

I like it. Good cash balance, very monopolistic business model, secure and dependable growing profits. You can always tell when you find it hard to find their competitor in the Bursa market.


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Posted by Icon8888 > Jul 1, 2019 2:47 PM | Report Abuse

sifu philips, UEM Edgenta good or not good ?

Finding costs and long term oil extraction costs are exactly what I use to measure the viability and the capability of a company to pay for fpso charters. A good example is ptsc with lam soon, where even though the force majeur occurred with China, petrovietnam still has to pay penalty clause to YINSON which pays for the ship conversion costs.

In either case oil prices just as everyone is worried too low it will recover. Just as when it was at all time high everyone thought the price will never go down anymore.


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Posted by OrlandoOIL > Jul 1, 2019 8:03 AM | Report Abuse

Both Armada n Yinson d risk is d same in oil prices too low

Cannot jz look inside must oso consider their customers' cost of production

Whn oil prices r too low not viable compared to cost of production d customers wil stop production n stop paying despite contract signed