Most of us, however, are specialists. Instead of a latticework of mental models, we have a few from our discipline. Each specialist sees something different. By default, a typical Engineer will think in systems. A psychologist will think in terms of incentives. A biologist will think in terms of evolution. By putting these disciplines together in our head, we can walk around a problem in a three dimensional way. If we’re only looking at the problem one way, we’ve got a blind spot. And blind spots can kill you.

Can you name any negligence on yinson part in interest repayments? On return hand, each contract they sign comes with a clause where the chartering party has to pay a penalty for any contract cancellation ( which turns out to be the cost of ship conversion). This pays for all the returns of the bond if needed to close.

There is nothing to contend if YINSON does not have any bad debt history and an exemplary history of producing ahead of schedule, good track record of results and a wonderful paymaster.

I have owned YINSON since 2012 and I have yet to find any fault in their business practise.

In any case the bonds are not available for retail investors like you. Minimum outlay is 1m usd for the bond takeup.

Major institutions have greedily picked up as the repayments are clockwork and the business contracts solid.

Imagine a bank taking your fixed deposit and epf submissions and paying you 4% or 6.3% per annum. Where would they go to get the returns? Buy stocks in sapura? Sumatec? Insas? Those are totally risky investments. Instead they buy the issued bonds from YINSON which pays 6.8% and 7.85% which is very stable and profitable. Most of all those bonds are backed by assets in use and on site, drawing cash flow.

It is a positive cycle, the better the contracts they more profit they have. The better the profit the more institutions want to lend to them.

The only problem you need to look at now is their ability to perform, how will they will do in their first project in Brazil waters.

The payments are very clear cut and consistent ( you stop paying, I stop delivering oil barrels). The debt is also very clear cut ( no maturity on bonds, only interest payments to worry about). The biggest risk is execution.

But YINSON has shown their ability to execute, with Japan institutions rushing to buy a piece of their action.

I feel confident as a shareholder.

>>>>>>>>>>>

DickyMe The contention is not about the return but the tenure and negligence of constraints.
12/07/2019 12:10 PM

To be honest, I hope it doesn't go through. The assets and synergy is definitely undervalued and is a perfect target for takeover due to evious ezion economic problems.

But those same economic problems will also cause YINSON to be overstretched and headaches in the future.

In the wake of these long term contracts with Brazil and Ghana high possibilities, I believe YINSON will do the right thing and not stretch their resources and just do the simpler things and get the orders and expedite ship conversion and profit raising.

I have a clear view of where YINSON cash flow and earnings growth will come from 10 years from now. Ezion gives me a big headache.


>>>>>>

Posted by W205 > Jul 12, 2019 12:57 PM | Report Abuse

Philips, how do you view the Ezion acquisition? How does that fit with the business of Yinson? It seems the deal might not go through

I don't know how many companies in Bursa can raise funds via bonds with payback maturity period of 999 years in the principal capital.

I noticed this in 2015 when cimb helped raised perpetual bonds for YINSON at 120 million usd. In my kind, at 7.85% rates they can just pay off the interest payments until one day when the Malaysian ringgit recovers up to 3 or 3.2, and the use dollar shrinks again, and clear it up the maturity.

This may come in 10 years, 20 years or 30 years.

They may even renegotiate new facility at better rates and reset the whole thing at their leisure.

I realized then that yinson will not have liquidity problems for a very very long time, if ever.

>>>>>>>>>

Posted by Sslee > Jul 12, 2019 12:53 PM | Report Abuse

Hahajaha,
Qqq3 7.5% intetest is not a cheap way to raise fund. Need to learn from JAKS ALP how to raise cheap funds.

There are managing perpetual bonds around, this is not the first one. This is the first one for an oil & gas industry.

Although I don't term YINSON as an oil and gas company, more as a ferry charter company where instead of humans they transport oil barrels at a fixed rate.

Advanced investors buy perpetual bonds only in industries which are very stable and predictable.

What can be more predictable than a highway concession and a ferry charter?

Yinson brazil fpso contract will be 22 years with an option of extension at a day rate of 650k usd.

In addition the penalty for cancellation is exactly the amount raised for perpetual bond. So they will be able to pay the full bond maturity if needed.

What more can you wish for in terms of clarity?

At 6.8%, their interest coverage will be 105 million a year with no need to pay any original principal sum of 1.5 billion.

As long as you can calculate the profit margins every year from ship charter (o&m is a separate contract) and minus of the interest coverage used for ship conversion, that is a very clear line of profit for YINSON.

More importantly, in terms of inflation, 1.5 billion today and 15 years from now 1.5 billion will be worth far far less. Meaning the value of repayments will be worth much less by then.

Very few companies get access to cheap and efficient source of credit.

As long as yinson has access to the markets, I am sure they will be able to get many many more projects in the future.

That's why it is the best deal for YINSON.

In fact it is fully taken up, and even the latest usd200 million had been fully taken up.

I don't understand the point you are trying to make. This is good for YINSON, that is why it is treated as equity, not debt.

And for some people who want dividends, 7.85% forever is a good deal too.

It is an analogy, not an exact explanation.

How else would you explain a bond with a 999 year tenure on maturity?

>>>>>>>


In stock market, investors are not your father and the company is not son.

A qualitative understanding of INSAS coupled with quantitative reassess can shows 2 different scenarios. There is a scenario in which they got the mother load and find another inari and have big increase in profit from there. There is however a more likely scenario: INSAS continues on in using it's inari resources and trading profits to pay for company activities which will need a long time, if ever to mature.

A company that invests in vigcash, and vigpay leaves me with a far more likely scenario.

The activities of the new CEO will spend resources in even more aggressive and risky activities which is either win big or lose big.

In either case, the only most likely solution for INSAS to increase its share price above rm1 level is clear:

A. The management or a competing company decides to invest heavily with share purchase, triggering MGO, causing share price to go up for takeover resolution.

B. The management decides to do a heavy dividend increase to reward all shareholders.

Both of these solutions are unlikely. A will not happen because the only party interested in increasing their shareholdings do not have the financial strength to do so, and B will not happen because at 33% ownership, it is to the management group benefit to minimise profit dilution, maintain control, and find other way to get money out via purchasing of other related companies, paying higher director salaries and doing startups of companies in various locations out of Malaysia ( Hong Kong, Brunei, Mongolia, Singapore) which local auditors are unable to verify.

Of course, INSAS management may also be doing the right thing in trying to grow the business but still in the process of growing startups. In either case, many assumptions need to be made.

No problem, ijm saw profit that is why unhappy, meaning profit returns to gkent/mrcb is more than previous 6%.

In this case no problem with termination, if ijm want the job so bad, renegotiate contract and give them new terms on price revision. If you can do the new price by all means.

Most likely they will not agree on revised price

4. Retail and car rental:
Melium Group is one of Malaysia’s leading retail group on international luxury fashion brands such as Aigner, Emilio Pucci, Farah Khan, Givenchy, Hackett London, Lanvin, Max Mara, MCM, Roger Vivier, Stuart Weitzman and Tod’s. Melium Group also operates a multi brands store “M” Pavilion which presents fashion trend from more than 50 international brands. Besides luxury fashion, Melium Group also owns and operates the Seminyak Village, a boutique mall in Bali that offers international brands along with the best of Bali’s home-grown labels.
Melium Group also holds the Malaysian franchise chain of Dome Café. Dome Café in Malaysia operates in over 20 outlets in Klang Valley, Genting Highland, Johor and Penang. It also operates its own café known as “Aseana Café” which is a home-grown unit with an Asean touch.

Let me be honest, lets all be honest. When was the last time you drank at a Dome Café, and bought clothes from all their retail lables? You compare the explosive growth of well run businesses like Old Town coffee, starbucks and tealive, and you know that dome café is a loss making operation. IF it was making money, it would have more than 20 branches by now. 5-10 years later? I wouldn't be surprised if they sold it or built just another 2 new branches. (the branch in Kota kinabalu sabah are all closed and dead)

3. Technology

The Group’s technology’s core activity is investment in high growth technology companies in three broad technology sectors namely electronics manufacturing services (“EMS”), financial transaction processing (“Fintech’) and bio-technology. The major investee companies in the respective tech sectors are Inari Amertron Berhad (“Inari”), Numoni Pte. Ltd. (“Numoni’) and Sengenics Corporation Pte. Ltd (“Sengenics”).
Inari is involved in the Outsourced Semiconductor Assembly and Test (“OSAT”) industry for RF products and tailored EMS contract manufacturing to the semiconductor optoelectronic industry. As at 30 June 2018, Inari operates 12 plants situated in Malaysia, Philippines and China with total production floor space of over 1 million square feet. In FY 2018, Inari reported revenue of RM1,376 million, a 17% increase as compared to RM1,177 million in FY 2017, and its earnings improved from RM229 million in FY 2017 to RM260 million in FY 2018.
Numoni was originally formed to bring financial inclusion to the under-banked with its Cash-in Cash-out solutions. Numoni’s timing also coincided with rapid changes in the financial payment industry with the onset of mobile enabled financial technology (“Fintech”) during the last few years. Unfortunately, Numoni is not been able to gain traction in the Fintech industry in the face of new deep pocketed Chinese players as Alipay and Wechat Pay in the region and also incremental regulatory changes in the countries Numoni operates in, which gives time to and thereby favoring entrenched legacy industry players. Numoni is continuing in its efforts to seek traction in the Fintech industry. Numoni’s subsidiary in Malaysia, Numoni DFS Sdn Bhd is licensed by Bank Negara Malaysia to conduct e-wallet and remittance businesses ie. remittance and payment solutions to its customers via mobile applications & other electronic channels.
Sengenics is a functional proteomics company that was originally spun out from research that was originally carried out at Cambridge University in the UK. The company has a patented technology called KREX and has made good progress engaging world renowned customers and collaborators that include top pharma, biotech companies and ivy league-class academic institutions in the USA, Europe and Asia as it expands its footprint in the biomarker industry.
The Group’s Technology segment, as in the past financial years, remains a key contributor to the Group’s profits and cash flows. The Technology segment continues to maintain a significant equity holding in Inari to generate recurring dividend income. From capital gains and income returns from mature investments such Inari, the Group’s Technology segment is able to generate cash flow at the same time seek growth from new and promising investments in the Technology segment.

I will just be quick about it. It all sounds very nice, but other than inari (which is paying for everything), their efforts in technology are all horrible ideas and unproven and loss making. Inari was a lucky throw where they met the right team, and had the cash to support and watched it grow exponentially. Will inari continue to grow exponentially in the future? My humble opinion is the smarphone market is over saturated, the rate of phone replacements will definitely slow in the future and the will definitely impact inari in the long term 5-10 years from now.

2. Investment holding and trading,

The Group’s investment strategies encompass stringent asset allocation and diversification to manage risk of the portfolio investments of the Group. To that, the Group acquires fixed and variable income investments typically money market funds, debt securities and high yield growth stocks and listed equities and options. These investments are held on a medium to long term investment horizon of 1 to 5 years. The Group’s investment objectives are to maximise capital growth with recurring income and cash flows above the cost of funds.
As of 30 June 2018, the Group’s investments in listed equities are primarily in the properties, technology, consumer products and financial services sectors in both local and overseas stock exchanges, and the key equity investments include, amongst others, IGB REITS, Ho Hup Construction Company Berhad, Omesti Berhad, SYF Resources Berhad and Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation Limited.

By far, this is their biggest earning business model. Can you judge the competitive business advantage of their management in picking stocks and their investments profile.

By taking the average results of the last 2 years (100m profit in 2017, 3m profit in 2018), you realize that they are not holding fixed income securities, but a mixture of highly volatile investments and inconsistent companies. In short, the question you should ask yourself, how many stocks in their portfolio is in YOUR portfolio, and would you buy them? What is the last 5 years results of the stocks that they are holding (the calvin tan question) and would they continue to keep it?

AS it is virtually impossible to predict with any accuracy how this division will do 5-10 years from now, I declare sslee a veritable genius as I have no idea how to value the intrinsic value of this division, using 3 million? or 100 million? I am far too stupid to invest in INSAS.

How I go about solving this question. Lets do this again qualitatively, not using quantitative results (which is from annual reports and must be done in tandem with qualitative research, not standalone, for that is the path to destruction).

1. https://www.mnaonline.com.my/, or M&A Securities Sdn Bhd is INSAS stock broking and share listing services, corporate finance & advisory services. They also have a lending arm, Insas credit & leasing Sdn Bhd.

As of 30 June 2018, ICL has outstanding loans portfolio in excess of RM200 million which are fully collateralized and generating interest income to the Group.

What does this mean, how stringent is their application process, how many branches do they have to collect, process and sell loan products. What is the credit profile of their borrowers. How easy is it to use their online system, how many people use their platform, is it growing? is it taking market share from encumbents? Who is the encumbent? (I would assume it is the major banks in Malaysia) Is it more efficient and easy to use, are the trading margins better? are the sales growing?

Comparing with quantitative results (see above), you get the opinion that financial services due to internet generalisation has caused rates to be so generic, that only the most easiest and comfortable to use will get volume, but at the cost of ever reducing income.


https://klse.i3investor.com/jsp/hti/brokers.jsp

These are the rates given in i3 community of all the stock broking facilities.

Now the qualititative analysis. M&A securities has 5 branches in malaysia. Is it growing? Is it competitive, will users in sarawak and sabah be able to take part? for the last 5 years from 2014-2019, has this business unit been growing? Is management taking any initiative to grow this business? If given the chance, would you use their platform for trading or online stocks settlement? How many people do you know are currently using this service?

For me it is very very dastardly difficult. I'm just not as smart as Sslee, who is far far smarter than me in projecting future returns. it is about the age old question 1 bird in hand is worth 2 in bush,

I try to look at it from an owners point of view:

Answer 2 questions for INSAS business: What is my minimum, realistic and optimistic view of INSAS cash flow projections, revenue and earnings 5-10 years from now based on current competitive business strengths. Look to the future based on past strengths.

INSAS has a few divisions, let us study them qualitatively:

1. Financial Services (2018: 65M revenue/13M NP, 2017: 54m/19m)
2. Investment holding and trading (2018: 193m/3m, 2017: 217m/100m)
3. Technology (2018: 19m/77m, 2017: 11m/65m)
4. Retail trading & car rental ( 2018: 64m/ -3m, 2017: 64m/0m)
5. Property investment & development (2018: 1m/11m, 2017: 2m/5m)

The only consistent projections (with good accuracy) that you can make is for item 1, and item 3, item 5. Item 2 has such a big swing in P&L that you cannot in all honesty understand if they will make big profits or lose big money 5 years from now. Item 4 is probably (like grab) going to be a drain on resources for the foreseeable future.

>>>>>>>>>

So INSAS business is nothing complicated, any reasonable CEO will be able to maintain a certain level of profit. Cash rich INSAS is trying to use part of it cash to generate Income better than deposit rate (Quoted securities investment, Money-lending, Bonds), fixed deposit 553,678,000, cash and bank balance 114,632,000 and venture into new associate companies with new patented products/services/business to grow it bottom line and hence you do not see the grow in top line (revenue).

Thank you

the biggest difference between armada and yinson is the debt burden. Armada has a lot of contracts, but the burden of making profits enough to pay for the interest coverage and dividends to shareholders is already hard enough without the added burden of paying back the principal borrowings + coupon rate.
This is what is causing the increased chance of default for bumi armada.

For Yinson, no such problem exists.

as Jason said, for the next 999 years.

The reason for the first perpetual sukuk (bond) and why it should be treated as an equty and not debt: most bonds have a redemption coupon and a maturity period. In the case of armada, when the debt on bonds came due and the you have to pay the full maturity period + coupon, liquidity for armada became tight and the share priced crashed as the possibility of default became very high.

With regards to Yinson and why it is very VERY favourable, the perpetual sukuk simply means that there is no maturity period (on the 6.8% return yearly). Depending on how you look at it, as long as Yinson pays the 6.8% in perpetuity they don't need to worry about the debt of the bond. aka PERPETUAL. no maturity date, no call date, they can keep it going for a very long time without entering default. In fact, they can decide to pay of the debt 15 years from now when the long term charter contracts are done with.

In essence, treat it as if your father decided to borrow you money without any agreement, with the assumption that your new business will pay back your father 7.85% every year in bond repayments and he will not chase you for the full repayment of the principal amount + coupon. He is your father after all.

One day you will pay him back everything, but as long as you pay back that coupon rate every year, he will not complain to you mother.

>>>>>>>>

Yinson borrowing April 2019 as follows:
{In million Rm}
1. Perpetual Bond............1847.

a sukuk is basically a muslm version of a bond. Because they do not have riba or interest (due to jewish customs of screwing people over) sukuk is based on buying and sharing ownership of identifiable assets.

Hi qqq3, that is 10% of your reading capital, in my humble opinion very risky levels, as in 1999 I was also playing around at those levels but became greedy when the profits was too good, in the end return everything back and more.

In the end it all comes back to discipline. I used to lose my cool a lot also back then. Especially when a pattern arose, I follow that pattern and doubled my 200k. Feeling confident I thought as long as I stick to my pattern I will make money. Then when things terbalik, I got angry and chased with more money, 10 bad trades? Finished.

Sadly things never turn out that easy.

Trading requires far more brains than I readily admit I have.

Well done qqq3, well done.

If using my old method of trading safety, my maximum exposure to any stock is around 5%. Let's say I have supreme confidence and a casual of 300,000myr. I can expose maximum risk of 15k in one trade, with a 40% return, you have just made 6k. Wonderful! Another months kopitiam trade.

Really, where to find exactly.

You have earned more than that Heavenly punter salary after being shanghaied from Malaysia.

Speculation at it's best. Contrarian pro.



>>>>>>>>>>>

Posted by qqq3 > Jul 10, 2019 3:48 PM | Report Abuse

up 37% T +1..............where to find?

Oh a successful businessman driving a perodua myvi around. Ok noted. I will stop making fun of you anymore.

Big difference between you and me.

Icon8888 didn't trust my investment portfolio so he wanted proof. I showed it to him as per his request. He asked for it. I showed it to him. He deleted his comments.

No one gives a lick about you or how successful you are. Or how your kids are doing in tar college. You volunteered that information on your own. NO ONE CARE about you or your family or how you started as a office boy.

A show off is someone who flaunt something he may or may not in without anyone asking from him.

Me? I just practise what I preach.

BIG BIG DIFFERENCE BETWEEN OFFICE BOY RAIDER AND ME.


>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Posted by stockraider > Jul 10, 2019 2:54 PM | Report Abuse

I thought this Sohai Philip like show off loh..remember he even when to the extent himself, stripping himself naked showing of his QL shareholding in the internet loh...!!

Come on if u r not the type who want to put a show, i cannot imagine why people want to perform strip tease to putting himself for a free show leh?...!!

Philip sohai, please look into the mirror, i see what type of person u r, b4 u comment like that loh...!!

Raider still stuck using one metric learnt from Ben Graham. Nowadays no more cigarette butt loh... Sohai. Those days you can make money because no internet all research must be done via Moody's and annual reports mailed to your house every month, and orders need to give phone call to your remiser. These days if you find cigarette butts is because underneath got land mine loh...

By you remarks I already know how much " wealth" you really have... You act like alot of small-time contractors and small pond businessmen I know who think they are very rich and very powerful.

It's funny how life works.

The very rich and the very poor are very transparent and honest with their effort to help you and give you a moment of their time to make you feel comfortable. The poor don't care about money because they don't have anyone to compare to and the rich don't care about money because they have too much.

It's usually the ones stuck in the middle who are always comparing with people with more and trying to get to the next level, they are the ones who like to act as if they have wealth ( but from their remarks they are just middle class) but act in a very low class manner.

This is a good mental model for you to understand using psychology.

If you are really successful, people will know from the way you talk and act. You don't need to put an act or show off how successful you are. In fact, the more you brag, the more I know you have nothing but a recond Mercedes with maintenances issues, a lot of debt, and a very poor record stock picking.

Sslee,

This is how you brag. Not with results. Not with portfolio and numbers. Just loudmouth and talk.

Unless you haven't noticed why I detest groupies like stockraider.


>>>>>>>>>>>>

Today i m proud to say i m a successful businessman as well as a successful investor mah....yes u could be a despatch boy b4....but nothing can hold u back, if u have the determination and desire to be successful and work hard & learn loh..!!

More than Half of my wealth are earn from stocks investment and the other from business loh...!!

My children will get half a million each for investment, when the they graduate from TAR university & they are doing fine in investment too...using Ben Graham intelligent investment method, always start off with Ben Graham Intelligent Investor method especially if u r young rookies loh...!!

I have zero issue with office boys and under qualified individuals who listen and ask honest questions with intent to learn.

I have issues with sslee who do not sell to learn but justify his own investments by bringing down other INVESTMENTs ( especially when one went from 1 billion cap to 11 billion cap and ideas revenue from 800 million to 3.6 billion). How to compare? Why compare?

Worse, I have issues with noisy stockraider who trolls a lot but had zero track record of investing but calls everyone who disagrees with them sohai and idiot and stupid.

Worse he CAPSLOCK everything and copies entire blog posts in his remarks.


Now that is annoying. And stupid.

And I am not bragging. Bragging would be holding a mccalan at a kopitiam, posting a picture on how much I made this week.

I am being factual when someone is comparing and using Berkshire to justify that his INSAS valuation is better than Berkshire.

>>>>>>>>

Posted by Sslee > Jul 10, 2019 10:36 AM | Report Abuse

Hahahaha 3iii and Philip,
People who brag about how great they are, how qualified they are, how good they are, how many books they have read and look down on less successful people as less qualified or an office boy and etc do not realize how annoying it actually is.
There are many greater successful people in i3 but they remain humble, open minded and humane.

So sad raider England not good.

I repeat again slowly for office boy.

I detest people who talk so much about Warren Buffett principles but never even own a single share of brk.

While those who understand what margin of safety is and compare stocks will realize buying brk is far better than many do called UNDERVALUED investments based on p/e and NTA and not on the buying a wonderful business itself.

If you want to do your own investing do it on your own merit and your own study. No need to add salt and vinegar say is kyy stock la is insas Hathaway bullshit la.

Face the facts, you are a minority shareholder of a microcap, while every single one of class A brk owner is a millionaire.

>>>>>>>>>>

Posted by stockraider > Jul 10, 2019 10:33 AM | Report Abuse

Why raider say Philip is another very big naive sohai leh ??

U mean to tell me reading a good warren buffet is not as good as attending berkshire agm meh ??

Your idea of margin of safety is so kampung you should have your own booth at the circus.

Ok office boy. Good to know you can count with both hands. Time to reach you interest rates. Can you do fractionals? It's a little bit harder but with practise I'm sure you can do it.

>>>>>>>>>

stockraider Remember 1 + 1 = 2
2+5 = 7

Really? I doubt you have the guts to put that 300k into one single bet on London. You have to worry about risk aversion and loss prevention and safety of capital.

In essence, volatility.

For value investors, all I have to do is find the sure thing. One I have, I can put my entire net worth into it once I understand the business and it's economic advantage.

Contrarian pros can meh?

Then again deploying 300k capital and 40m capital are two very different things.

Haha qqq3 faster sell the shares and book your 12% gain and laugh to the bank. Trading can definitely make money.

Just don't get stuck like raider and turn trading stock into long term investment stock.

Sslee for someone who owns both Berkshire class A share and QL 2 million shares I know exactly what I am looking at and what I buy.

It is sad that those who repeat Warren Buffett saying the most don't even invest in Berkshire Hathaway aka sslee, calvintan, raider.

But then again they are the first to think that brk shares are overvalued and no dividend returns.

I OTOH have attended brk annual meeting and watched all the others on YouTube. Very informative.

While you bought INSAS in 2017 and buy books of Warren Buffett.

I attended AGM and held Berkshire shares in 2017 and watched it jump from 200k-300k as well as enjoying my exchange rate from 3.2 jump to 4.2.

Maybe you should stop talking one thing and do another and just follow Warren buffet instead of kyy.

Then again, cheap people buy cheap stuff.

I know that based on track record sslee and stockraider is very inefficient at valuing stocks.

Sslee has followed kyy into many stocks to his detriment.

Stockraider has touted hengyuan rm35 and followed Calvin tan into talamt so I have no respect for him either.

Both are followers and not critical thinkers. Despite being a speaker I doubt sslee knows much about businesses but like an employed GM ( the kind I love the best) he is best at noticing the small details and bringing it to the attention of his bosses who can make the big decisions in life.

Stockraider is an office boy who hides behind the internet and calls others sohai and idiot and stupid but doesn't have a name or a portfolio.

I would put both of them and London biscuit under the same category: stay away.


>>>>>>>>>

2. Do you think the market is efficient in pricing the above stocks today?

You were sacked for mfrs16…? That...is.... Interesting.

I let the something new today.

How to salvage? Unless you can change the management to be a more capable one, as a minority shareholder you can't do much other than watch the train wreck.

Even if this issue is settled the receivables and the lack of funds is a structural thing.

In fact even if change new management the issue still remains.

How to improve?

Unless you are talking about short term trading, then anything goes.

Why? Just stay away from gruesome companies, many others to invest in.

You are comment on ridiculous perspective.

I agree with nothing you say, because it is full of very weird thought process.

I am paying and holding today for a much brighter future for QL. I do not look at share price only in monitoring my stock, because it only serve to confuse me. I am paying now, for a reasonable understanding of what will happen 10 years from now.

How will you and I know what will happen at QL as minority shareholders? All we can do is monitor the strengths and competitive advantage today of the business, and try to ride the wave.

Do I know if the share price will stay stagnant or not? I won't know ( it never has for last 20 years.) But do I know the business will continue to grow? ( Yes it course with three new plants, factories and growing cash hoard and cash flow, every into new business family mart successfully with 109 branches and growing targeting Penang and Johor).

In comparison ( as you like to compare other rice bowl rather than focus on your own investments), has INSAS business model improved since 2017?

On this exact same date in 2017 10 July the share price was rm 1.10. for this price you paid the business was generating 347 million of
revenue and 180 million of profit. I'm sure you believed this good result will be a continuous one and every year will grow bigger. Wow and you found something with rm1.94 selling for rm1.10. wow! You must be a brilliant investor, by all probability the share price will rocket and you will make up for all your previous losses!

Wow indeed. You did not realize that the investment holding and trading made 217 million revenue and 100 million in net profit. Do you think this is a temporary or a consistent thing ( so easy to earn 100%?)? Obviously it is the most volatile part and the profits will be covered by huge swings in value which the market understands but you do not. You think that INSAS is balanced with many businesses (numoni since 2011 didn't make money, retail trading did 64 million in 2017 with zero profit, property overeating 2 million revenue and 5 million profit, inari 11m revenue 65 profit from share sale and dividend)

Basically the market was willing to take a 50% discount because it believed the investment holding and trading profits was a one time thing.

It was.

2018 saw a drop to 341m and 90m.
2019 will see a bigger drop with 134m(3Q) and 64m (3Q).

The question is how will insas business perform 10 years from now? What competitive advantage does it have, how is their management capability? Where will it's future cash flows come from and how consistent they will be?

This is all that matters. We ignore inari 600m because it is a known quantity since 2011, when inari was listed so you can stop repeating as if you have discovered fire. Everyone knows this and still gives INSAS a 50% discount. More today because you say NTA 2.54 but we are selling it for 0.8 cents.

Why is the question you should ask yourself and understand. It is not that everyone in Bursa is blind and only you are smart enough to realize you are buying something worth 2.50 for 0.81. It is everyone else understands risk and volatility and company management.

When something is selling for 60% discount, you don't just go and buy more like raider does, you ask yourself why that shop has been putting up that "closing down sale" sign for the last 5 years.

Same like London. When earnings and profits go up, you don't just go and buy more without thinking, how profitable is selling biscuits anyway. And why you need such expensive machines when demand is so saturated. Have I ever even eaten a London biscuit?

The simpler the business, the easier to understand. Easier to understand, harder to fool the numbers. Clearer the numbers, the clearer the story of the future.

I'm not smart enough for a lot of the businesses you buy. I stick to ship and bus charter companies ( YINSON), chicken and eggs ( QL), plastics and fertilizer ( pchem), water meter and government contracts (gkent), rubber gloves (topglov).

How much simpler can they get?

Is it fun buying complicated businesses which you don't understand and don't make you money? Biotech and fintech and trading and ride sharing... How do you even begin to evaluate business models ten years from now?

>>>>>>>>>>

As of your accusation, “Do you go around talking bad about other” I did not talk bad about QL, I only give you a different prospective on QL which you do agreed with me. “If I paid 11 billion for 550 million earnings? Pe20 future earnings? All day” In your own words you are implying QL share price will stay stagnant for 10 years for earning to climb to 550 million and thus PE20.

Eduspec is a piece of crap microcap that has no earnings, shrinking revenues and is the perfect target penny stock manipulators.

Anyone who buys this company has everything coming to them.

Then again, raider would love these kind of companies.

Only office boys can think all business is a standardized product. Meaning all net assets are the same thing. Meaning xinquan really got money la 1 billion,

Then all property developers in Malaysia is SUPER UNDERVALUED, ALL GOT HUGE PROPERTIES AND ASSETS, ASIAPAC 1 BILLION IN ASSETS BUT SELLING FOR 200 MILLION, TALAMT ALSO UNDERVALUED, KARAMBUNAI ALSO UNDERVALUED.

WOW.

let you win la. This kind of investing also boleh pakai.

Wasting time talking to trolls.

Go buy your McDonald's rm6 value for rm3. Enjoy your heart attack.

You mean if you go market everyone selling chicken at rm6 then some Chinaman there want to sell you chicken for rm3 you don't ask any questions just buy?

Are you fucking stupid or what?



>>>>>>>>>>>

If u go mcdonald u want to buy chicken burger at Rm 3.00 or Rm 6.00 leh ?

Of course u want to buy cheaper bcos more value & bigger margin of safety loh...!!

Sifu raider? Why is it undervalue for last 5 years?


>>>>>>>>

Posted by stockraider > Jul 9, 2019 6:43 PM | Report Abuse

Means insas undervalue....got big margin of safety mah...!

This is very sad. This will mark the day when one day grab is no longer an app for me to use, and grab has to take overly high risks in growing it's revenues with no earnings to support it's valuation and debt.

Debt will kill GRAB.

In either case, when red flags occur it is wisest to understand if the effects are permanent or temporary. This is the difference between Warren Buffett and us mortals.

Problem is, just because they found out that the salad oil crisis on American Express was a temporary thing, doesn't mean you will find wonderful deals behind every nook and cranny.

Everyone wants to be the brilliant investor who buys a stock at low price and watch it turn around and they become a hero!

Everyone wants to buy that INSAS at 67 cents and watch it become a 6.70 stock and say yes! I know how to buy stocks.

Everyone wants to buy that LCTITAN lower than IPO price watch it recover and say, hey I am brilliant!

But the fact of the matter is, the best investments are the simplest, no brainier ones.

The ones where people go,

Huh? It's commodities, no moat, why you buy?

Or the type that is so easy to understand it is boring and you are sure won't make much money ( but if you know something is guaranteed to not lose you money, you can deploy huge capital).

Yes, the best investments are the simplest ones where everything is clear as day, good management, boring ones.

- Peter Lynch ( one up on wall Street, boring company names)
- Warren buffet ( on jumping 1 foot poles vs 7 foot ones)

My advice? If an investment sounds complicated, has a lot of debt that you don't understand, runs a complicated nature where you can say for certain if it will or will not make money? Just stay away. Spend your resources and your time with other research.

How I choose to spend my time?

Take for example gkent, you are guaranteed a revenue of 11.68 billion for next 4 years( split between mrcb/gkent), all you need to do is to figure out if they can complete the job, and what the profit margin will be. You don't have to worry about debt ( covered by mrcb,gkent net cash position) and you don't have to worry about receivables and payables (government contracts are pretty straight forward, you can actually get a copy of the project milestone)

As long as you can minimize your assumptions, you can get an easier understanding of the business and what the numbers are telling you about the business.

Why make life so difficult?

Never trouble trouble until trouble troubles you.

Sometimes ego is your worse enemy in investing.

I am sorry, sslee that is wrong.

As a business owner first thing we ask is safety of capital, competitive advantage and future growth prospects. Anyone who can guarantee a pay-back period is either silly or overly optimistic. Those who sold to your boss the idea of payback period of investing in plantations when palm oil price at rm3k per tonne received a rude Awakening when the price dropped to 2k.

Those who ask for pay back period b and IRR will get whatever nice figure plucked from the air to justify the investment.


>>>>>>>

Posted by Sslee > Jul 9, 2019 3:35 PM | Report Abuse

Dear Philip,
As business owner the first thing we ask is pay-back period.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/icon8888/192060.jsp

This is the cost of optimism.

Investor millionaire my ass.

Wow fake engineer want to start again?

Too bad he never learn how to ask questions.

Always buy in optimism, with one hand on steering wheel, they other frantically pressing buy button for Lotte...

I wonder what happen to the price after he drive so fast and furious to buy...

You very lohsoh, maybe you should ponder why hengyuan can become rm35? At least kc chongz has very informative knowledge. You... I really don't know and lazy to find out.

>>>>>>>>

Posted by stockraider > Jul 9, 2019 1:04 PM | Report Abuse

Remember Aokam, London, Megan media....it strike u b4 u knowing loh....!!

What is panlai?

Is that pandai laosai mix together?

No problem, I'm pondering how a 4 billion company becomes a 8 billion company. This one really kyy buy or sell no one cares.


>>>>>>>

Posted by stockraider > Jul 9, 2019 12:00 PM | Report Abuse

OF COURSE U NEED ABOUT 2 TO 3 YRS FOR INSAS TO GO ABOVE RM 2.00 LOH....!!
THIS IS WHAT WE CALL INVEST FOR LONGER TERM MAH...!!

BTW PLS PONDER ABOUT YOUR YINSON , IT IS HYFLUX IN MAKING LOH....!!

Ok raider u win! Insas 90 cents August 31 and rm1 Feb 2020. Sure thing!

But why not higher? I thought you said NTA is rm2.54?

Then again KC article is a pretty good indication of something that you read but don't ponder.

Instead of questioning my investment that I have built on since 2009 which has served me well until today with growing dividend, cash flow and wonderful growth, perhaps it is better to concentrate on your INSAS which if you bought in 2014 you will understand better what I mean.

OTB invested in insas. He pulled out. Kyy invested in INSAS. He pulled out. Your way of analysis by talking down other good investments instead of the simple question, why is a company with earnings, net assets of rm2.54 only worth 81 cents to Bursa public "INSTITUTION", is perplexing.

Do you go around talking bad about other competing palm oil companies to raise the reputation of your own?
That is not how investing works. Investing is about predicting future cash flows into the company and putting a value of the company on that.

And to answer your question: it is very simple.

If pt musim mas has 15% net profit margins on its plantations sector. Then it has the management capacity to expand into fertilizer business successfully. Then it expanded into selling frozen seafood and manufactured end user products for it's palm based products. Then it expanded outside of Indonesia into china, Australia and Japan. Then the management has the capacity to successfully transitioned into consumer supply? And if every sector pt musim mas went into became successful and profitable?

Yes I would pay pe50 for that.

Any businessman would.

If I paid 11 billion for 550 million earnings? Pe20 future earnings? All day.


>>>>>>>>>>>

Posted by Sslee > Jul 9, 2019 10:41 AM | Report Abuse

Dear Philip,
I totally agreed with Icon8888 statement: “Icon8888 always says I think I am right and I am never wrong”

By your own statement; “One should always exercise thinking like an owner trying to buy over a new business when buying stocks. Try to find out the competitive advantage, try to find out the risks” Do you practices what you preach? Tell me will any businessman buy QL now and pay 11 billion with profit of 216 million and profit growth to 400 – 600 million in year 2029. Do you know what happen to biological asset of egg laying hens when millions of egg laying hens cannot produce egg anymore? Is QL FCF great?

Not meant to be poking, but legitimate discussion. Armada gearing up to win all those contracts back then was a major factor in me not investing in the stock.

Raider is definitely right though, it was self inflicted.

In London case it is definitely fraud.


>>>>>>>>>>>

Posted by Icon8888 > Jul 9, 2019 9:23 AM | Report Abuse

this is a fraud case

no competent CEO will gear up like this