This remark is a bit yogi sadhguru for my liking. The question remains, if all roads lead to Rome, shouldn't we choose the easiest, most efficient and least risky way of going to there?

Some cats do it by going to genting, buying binary options, over leveraging
Property loans and buying trading indicator software.

There is an easiest way to invest in stocks. Problem is, it's just not that easy.
>>>>>>>>>>

cheoky dont overemphasis on quality. do your own way.
ceo make money from salary.
senior make money from salary and corruption.
blue collar make money from salary and part time.
price to pay for each catagory?
ceo might become like steve job lo.

all cat can catch mice to fill stomach is good cat.
16/06/2019 11:03 PM

The tariff not paid by gonna government or even come nationals... It's actually paid by local US importers and manufacturers and trading houses who suddenly lose a source of cheap goods.

Expectations and reality very different.

Stock investment is probably one of the few economies where if you give it for free no one wants it, but if you charge 5K for it, everyone suddenly has to have it.

Thanks for the app.

I think the best advice I could give new investors is to first look at the business itself, then into the price. Because the price fluctuates whole the business model rarely changes, if you can monitor the good businesses, when the right price comes you will not hesitate to put all your money in.

But buying a stock based on PE, NTA alone can prove very dangerous if you do not understand how the businesses got it's lending status the way it had.

As for Intel, my advise is to not invest in it. Intel the name is very different from intel the company.

For tech companies the ability to pivot, to push new technologies and to efficiently push your team to be more efficient than the competition means everything.

In every single way Intel has underperformed. For a company that was the leader in semiconductors advances it has declined in many uninspiring ways. Intel inside today means expensive and lower quality.

Intel missed mobile.(tsmc & foxconn took over).
Intel missed graphics. (AMD turned their fortunes on gpu processing).
Intel's 10nm wafers were years late to the party, while competitors with smaller R&D budgets were able to produce further advancements than intel.

For me it's all about the node race. And it has proven that the bigger company with larger resources does not seem to have the competitive advantage that smaller companies have.

I think the mark of good investor is someone who never stops learning something new every day, improves his thought process and absorbs new mental models.

In a nutshell the points you made are all facts which made me not invest in rce capital. And you are right, it may not happen today, it probably won't happen this year. But 5-10 years from now, it will definitely change.

I'm not a good predicter of time. But I believe I'm an ok judge of long term trends. All I can say is don't be disheartened if once you sell your shares the price goes up for a little while. In the end the long term is what matters.

Take your time, just buy quarterly and add on the position. PCHEM will be around for the next 10-20 years growing.

I don't think it will be a good result this quarter. not enough time to complete some progress works and claim big boss.

Calvin tan just put his own self under the bus by reposting his comments in 2014. From zero respect he has made me lose even more respect for him and his stock pick skills. In 2014 he bought a dead end stock, going up her promoted kaw kaw saying it is worth xxx... But if you followed his full recommendations he conveniently left out how much he bought and how much he sold ASB. But the fact is in 5 years the stock has been a dead end. Only Calvin will say he make big profit can see the future Chun Chun buy and Chun Chun sell.

This is his portfolio for 2019:
https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/123029.jsp

The funny thing is with all his comparing himself to Peter Lynch, none of his stocks have stood the test of time.

In retrospect, in the similar time period I had bought into YINSON, and because I had confidence in the business every quarter I topped up my investment without fail, knowing that only wonderful businesses will give you the faith to buy on weakness, average up/down and just hold.

If this is Calvin idea of eating steak, thank God I am a vegetarian.

Again,
Calvin's portfolio for 2019:
https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/123029.jsp

http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2018-08/18/c_137399728.htm

This durian seller is using alipay and wechat to receive payment from tourists.

The convenience for tourists and for himself in not needing to hold can that can be stolen by thieves is definitely a boon.

Hi I received mine from CTOS.

True story, I bought durians in tangkak using alipay.

The intrinsic value is based on a proposition that trajectories will stay current. I guess the big puzzle is to always understand if any slowdown in growth is permanent or temporary. Opensys already had a drop-off in machines sales in the latest annual report.

The usual mathematical assumption is
If 1 bottle of beer is sold at $1, then 100 bottles of beer is $100.
But in the real world if you went to the market to buy 100 bottles the price is more likely to be $90. A bigger bulk discount. As different modes of payments compete, I believe most banks will choose the option the involves the lowest cost of maintenance and financial expenses.

I believe based on slower than expected contribution over a longer period of time than expected, inclusive of increasing costs, exchange rates and competition, you will be be closer to a intrinsic value per share of 19 to 25 cents. Using your crm projection based on projected sales. But again this is projection as I am more conservative on the real number of CRM upgrades, replacements and it's maintenance in the long term.

In my opinion, the dividend payout will not match the earnings growth in the long run, as the earnings and revenue of the latest quarter will not match the expectations of further growth as expected.

It is the age old question, give out dividends now and sacrifice future growth, or withhold dividends so earnings growth can match future expectations.

It is like asking people in the 50's if credit card will ever take off, everyone believed then that credit card fraud will be it's downfall. If you told them visa would process 11 trillion dollars in payment volume in 2018 it would boggle their mind.

My personal opinion is that fintech will be a booming monstrosity, and as usage becomes more prevalent, there will be less and less OTC transactions and machine cash applications in the future. I can't remember the last time I carried a 1000 ringgit note, much less bringing the 10,000 singapore dollar note around.

I believe cash will definitely have it's place in the future, but ATM, CRM usage will definitely drop as cashless payments become more secure and easy to use.

Lightning always finds the path of least resistance to earth.

I think it is exactly because of that mindset of trading that has caused much grief among general investors on this. If you trade a lot the transactional costs can pile up very much higher in a year.

Trust me, you will be very much happier long term if you bought sucks the same way you buy a house, carefully choosing, finding the best location, buy very rarely but but based on the quality of the asset, not the price at which you can get it at.

The real money in stock is made in the waiting, not in the trading.

>>>>>>>>

Posted by risktransformer > Jun 7, 2019 4:22 PM | Report Abuse

Philip, I think it is not proper to compare buying/selling a house with stock. A house is not a liquid asset whereas a stock like PCHEM shares is very liquid.... u can sell it within seconds & buy it back any time with very little transaction cost (unlike a house.... the transaction cost is very high).

Actually one interesting point which I am trying to figure out. Opensys does not do their own R&D for these machines, and it is instead a licensed technology from OKI, Japan. The question which I could not clear up the answer to is:

1) what is the terms of the technology partnership. Is it a profit sharing deal, or just a pure franchiser/franchisee deal where OKI sets the master price and opensys sells based on the listed price to customers. What is the minimum stocks level to keep, will the system buying costs erode/increase over time, and most importantly is opensys working on their own homegrown solution in the future to compete with fintech and peers.

2) it seems your assumption of profits here are all based on pure sales only ( correct me if I am wrong). But another part of opensys sales is also based on leasing of machines as banks I believe will be far more interested in short term 1-3 year leases of the esm equipment at a higher service price, but without the hassle of buying and storing the equipment. For opensys looking at note 14 of inventory there is write down of used machines, as these machines cannot be cannibalised for new equipment or reused for other applications. There is a 10,313,089 write off of esm equipment which I assume is the leasing part of equipment that has been obsolete/ revamped. As OKI does not have a policy of taking back old machines and refurbishing I believe the difference in service actual profits will be quite substantial, as I am taking the example of my office leasing the latest xerox photocopy machine for a 3 year contract and returning it after the lease is up for a newer model, which is cheaper than buying a new machine.

In the end what will be the market size of this industry, what will be the acceptable method for it's main customer base ( fintech, direct purchase and ownership, leasing) and how clear will be the profit and revenue growth 5-10 years from now are frankly speaking quite murky for me.

I would say it is not a bad business, but neither will I submit capital into such an endeavor. Opensys has a huge market share 80%, but in a space where the total addressable market is very small. The customer base is also very niche, which is worrying all the same as some believe opensys is worth 300+ million.

Time will tell.

I arrived Melaka on Sabah harvest festival 30th May 2019, Thursday, which is normal weekday (I believe west Malaysia does not celebrate harvest festival, as the roads were still empty). the queue during the Friday and weekend at jonker street is far more lively during the pasar minggu at jonker street.

But you are right, you should assess normal condition, not unusal event. Which is why I did not take pictures on the weekends.


>>>>>>>>

Posted by pak_pandir > Jun 8, 2019 11:18 AM | Report Abuse

the queue at 11pm the last few days are invalid. if you want the accurate assessment, come during weekdays, not during the holiday season. If that queue still that long, then yes, the logic can be considered.

we assess normal condition, not unusual event.

Hi,

Care to elaborate on same thing?

>>>>>>>

Posted by shpg22 > Jun 8, 2019 11:09 AM | Report Abuse

There are so many competitor offering the same product as Familymart popping up like mushroom across the country. Even Mynews also start to offering the same thing

Judging from 11pm queues at jonker street, the financial report, the belief is yes, there is room for 400 fm in Malaysia. But I am interested in your logic on "highly not". In either case total population of Malaysia is 32.8 million in 2018, with 1.5% growth rate (roughly 500k increase in population yearly).

>>>>>>>>>>>

Posted by cheoky > Jun 8, 2019 10:40 AM | Report Abuse

U see only the internal pros of FM, perhaps u managed to visit the best FM in FM group. The issue is there a market to absorb 400FM in msia? Highly not. Perhaps in China yes.

FM doesn't sell batteries. you can buy it from 7-11.

You keep thinking 7-11 and FM does the same business model. Look closely, the approach is different, the items on sale is different, the feel and quality is different.

You go to FM combini to buy healthier choice sandwiches, bread, pan and Japanese imported snacks. You buy tasty soft serve ice cream, you get instant hot oden and good tasting coffee.

You go to 7-11 to buy batteries. how often do you really buy batteries from 7-11? The answer is, very rarely.

>>>>>>

Posted by jellyfish > Jun 8, 2019 9:22 AM | Report Abuse

if for example, i want to buy a battery, i will buy from 7-11 with no queue, rather than wasting time queueing at FM

cheoky, behind every 99 speedmart and seven-11 is something called a fulfillment center. The distribution warehouse is what determines the bottom line margin of the overall business. Basically the more they expand, the cheaper the overall costs will drop. If they have 5 or 6 convenience stores on one area, it will be far far cheaper to deliver everything fresh to the 6 stores in one go, rather than deliver to one convenience store. This is the true barrier of doing convenience store business and why a lot of small scale family owned minimarket are closing down.

>>>>>
cheoky Marginal utilities. Upon 400nos FM, bottom line becomes worst. Expand for the sake of expand only. Ntg worth an infinite price
08/06/2019 9:37 AM

That is not the question. the question is how to differentiate your business model and be the market leader in industry.
You need to understand the difference between a KFC and a FM, on has 2-3 staff per location, the other is a full restaurant (10+ workers) with associated costs. One is easily scalable with high profits, the other requires specific locations.

Simple idea of scale:
there are more than 700 locations of KFC : profit margins unknown (until QSR listing soon, but previous QSR annual report 2011 they did 144 million from 2.8 billion revenue for KFC, around 6%)
there are 2250 locations of 7-11: 2% profit margins reselling other peoples items.

I would say Family mart will be the happy-in-between of 1000 locations around Malaysia with higher margin and quality Japanese food, but with 9% profit margins going forward. Dr. Chia does not have to think out of the box. QL bought the franchise and leaving it up to the Japanese management to use big data and fulfillment centers to increase customer purchase locations.

Obviously Cheoky is correct in that as more stores are increased the costs become higher and profit margins lower.

but an interesting point is also how RESILIENT is the business, what is its difficulty of being replaced by a speedmart99 and a Mynews, and how well it can take market share from 7-11 and those other stores.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>

The question now is why with the long queue, FM has the store sales of 939K and Seven-11 1 million? Can FM increase it sales per store in the coming year? Who are the customers that prepare to queue? Can FM evolve from a neighborhood convenient store that serve local community, single person or people on the hurry into serving who family? The answer is yes if Dr. Chia prepare to think out of the box and have confident on the foods FM serve then he should think of KFC and McDonald's model serving FM Japanese Foods to the crowd and whole family in fast foods style.

Thank you

I thought you are giving up on Malaysia and gone to shanghai? Why are you still posting in horrible no future Malaysia investment forum?

In either case, everything has to be based on context. I would say Mcdonalds has exemplary service, when put in the context of the hordes and millions of customers served daily, 2 minute burgers (you can complain many things, slow and badly cooked food is not one of them, even during heavy queues).

As someone who used to work as a waiter in his school days in whitecastle at jalan raja laut (when there was a whitecastle in Malaysia), I can tell you it is easy to be a friendly service counter when the restaurant is near empty, and almost impossible to keep your cool when there are hundreds of hungry barbarians at the gates.

>>>>>>


Heavenly PUNTER UBS Shanghai Future Analyst McDonalds friendly service counter? WAHAHAHAHAHAHAH Joke of the day thanks
08/06/2019 8:11 AM

I remain confident that this will remain true.
They have already found innovative ways to grow, but more importantly they have the management in place that allows them to maintain and sustain their growth organically.

My prediction for the coming years:

Family mart will hit 1000 stores in Malaysia in 15 years.

Palm oil plantation will grow 3x the size due to Europe and worldwide accepting 70 fossil/30 biodiesel usage mix technology. The slowdown in Palm oil business will be marked by a sharp and sustained turnaround as fossil fuels become more and more scarce.

Surumi and seafood catch will transition into self-heating/ frozen premade meals as foodtech becomes more and more advanced due to new technology.

More consolidation will occur as the barrier of entry becomes more and more expensive for newcomers as commercial farming becomes more and more tech driven.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>

qqq3 this is not to say QL cannot come up with another innovative idea in next 2-3 years to sustain investor interest.

I believe workers follow the boss and the system. With a very good system, it matters little what the workers are like, with a good system and minimal training, you will still have a good service level.

If what you said is correct, KFC and McDonald's in Malaysia would be horribly run compared to other countries. And yet, McDonald's service in quick processed, good food, friendly counter service is still the same the world over.

A good system is well worth the franchise cost.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/philip1/209945.jsp

I hold quite a lot of PCHEM, a few months ago the price was at 8.15, the sudden rise in price was very much due to KYY, OTB and other speculators taking a bet on O&G counters and pushing it up to 9.30. However the long term triggers of the business had yet to take effect which is PIC. Therefore: euphoria.

Luckily those who buy PCHEM on fundamentals get to enjoy 18 cents dividends. If one can get to enjoy growing dividends (last year was 32 cents) on a growing business with high revenues and very high net profits year on year, the dividend payments can only go up. With increasing revenues long term the share price is also guaranteed to go up. So in the short term losing RM1 on a paper basis is no cause for worry.

Who buys a house and asks around everyday how much the house is worth, if one day someone offered you 1 million for your only house but must sell today would you do it? Then if tomorrow the same guy offered you 250K for your house would you sell in panic?

Sometimes is worrying how real world activities and stock investment activities can be so different and so far apart.


>>>>
risktransformer I only hold a little bit of PCHEM.... so I'm not bothered about the price dropping. But for those holding huge position in this stock..... imagine, a few months ago the price was around RM9.30 and now it has dropped to RM8.28; so if they held RM10 million in this stock then they have already lost around RM1 million. Looks like the price may drop further.
05/06/2019 4:04 PM

Hi sslee can I confirm this?

Proceeds from disposal of shares in an associate company RM 28,300,000
Dividend received RM 35,056,000

Dividend handed out to shareholders
Rm 13,245,000.00

Dividend handed out to preference shareholders
Rm 13,245,000.00

? Cumulative for Q3?

Thank you

Sorry... I just had to share this. I showed this statement to my wife she guffawed so hard she almost fell over, now demand me renew her Thai oddesey package.

Paying less tax means the company also is declaring let profit and revenue.

As tax is calculated at 24% average, it should be the other way around, the more tax INSAS pays the better, as that would mean it's INVESTMENTs and subsidiaries and customer base is growing more and more each year.

If one day INSAS no longer pays any taxes and instead declare losses every quarter, this would be bad for stockraider.

Then again, office boy is always full of hope, especially rm3 in 3 years 3 months for sapura.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>


stockraider Why Raider says Philip not smart loh...!!

Insas pays less tax u should be cheering instead of worrying loh..!!

Insas pays less tax bcos Rm 23m of its profits already pays tax or profit exempt from tax mah....!!

Gkent is pretty high risk though.

But having calvintaneng call me sometime with talent and intelligence is quite an honor.

At least he realizes compounding on winners is more important than big swings in profit and loss.

But personally I believe integrity has nothing to do with stock picking.

You are neither right not wrong because people believe you are. You are right or wrong because the facts say you are, and your stock returns show it in aggregate.

Why does YINSON share price go up? Simple, yinson is one of very few FPSO specialist company with enough capital, technical, license and project reference to buy into tender. More importantly, YINSON rates are very competitive but require upfront payment from client, and a insurance that covers liability payment for FPSO ship be paid off if contract is cancelled.

More importantly, YINSON bids for tenders in stable and profitable clients and areas with good payment history. Those clients want the best service and management capability, and Drew companies have that level of capability.

Wonderful company indeed.

The only lesson I can teach here is to look at the charter contracts and the project wins. Yinson management team is a European multinational Norway group, not some 1MDB local stooge. In fact, it is only recently that this company finally capture a project from petronas to charter FPSO.

You can rest assured there is no corruption involved.

Why?

Firstly the accounting matches. Secondly the charter rates and contracts are very competitive, and done efficiently with cash instead of debt like Armada. So there is very little in heavy debt incurred, which is mostly borne by low interest sukuk placement.

Most importantly, yinson ships are all efficiently maximized with 98% utilization rates, unlike armada with 50% and umw velesto etc at 60+%.

Finally you need to understand yinson business model. They are less a pure O&G company with epcc arm, or o&m with contracts based on oil barrel dig up and sold. In fact, if you understand yinson model well enough, you will realize that yinson is more a bareboat ship charter, where they build and rent out FPSO ship charter at fixed 8 year rates, and o&m done by client ( or recently also by YINSON which is not core business).

You can consider then a highly paid, specialized ferry business.

If you think YINSON does business in Malaysia you may be surprised to know majority of it's staff are foreigners, and 10% of it's project is in Malaysian Waters under Malaysian companies.


>>>>>>>>>>>>>

4444 MACC staffs blind is it? Why Yinson get so many O&G contracts if no corruption?
06/06/2019 11:05 AM

My lifetime I have met many frauds who come and say can always chun Chun trade like a demigod everyday but low sell high.

This is the core attraction of Calvin tan i3 Harvest church.

Everyday Chun Chun call.

>>>>>>>

Mr Calvin is a clever investor
Asiapac Talamt Calvin buy at lowest sell at highest so Mr Calvin
get free
Asiapac buy at 12sen then sell at 17sen so Mr Calvin use the Profit money so buy back Asiapac at 12.5sen recenlty so now all Mr Calvin share is free
Talam Mr calvin buy 2.5 sell at 5.5 then Mr Calvin use the Free profit buy back at 3.5sen so now get Talam also free

Demusang also missed asianpac, protasco, talamt, PERISAI and many Calvin promoted stocks.

It's ok, we take the good together with the bad.

Herein lies the simple statement of simple minded investors.

Debt and borrowings and interest costs are fixed.

For developer companies assets for sale are a very tricky thing. The value of a condominium is based on the last done price average.

Imagine a condo with 100 units. If the property was sold at 500k a piece and the units some were done at 30% sales of 500k each, the NTA value of the building becomes 50 million. However if 70% of the condo is not sold, the value of the building still remains the same, even as the loans and borrowings continue on.

But if 70% of the building was not sold, this means the true value is definitely less than 500k, because if it was, 100% would have been sold.

Therefore, NTA for property companies cannot be considered the same as NTA for banks and plantations and mines and factories.

Those assets are income generating. For developer until sold it just be considered a liability or at most closely monitored at each position to understand the possibility of sale.

Don't be a Calvin with simple calculations and simple thought process.

Apply a deeper mental model, understand how a company makes money.

Accounting principles are getting much better, but it is still very difficult to lump every business under over financial accounting method.

If Calvin does not understand this fact, he will not understand why majority of developer companies in bursa all seem grossly undervalued, all have been low P/E ratios, but all seem to be living in the edge of a cliff.

Stay away from those in aggregate, unless you really know exactly what properties those companies are selling, there locations and how much they are really worth.

It better yet, just ask sincerestock since he lives in sabah.

How much is this project worth in kinarut.

http://asianpac.com.my/thezil/

http://www.newsabahtimes.com.my/nstweb/fullstory/9576

The zil scheduled for completion in 2019. It hasn't started yet.

Ask him if you are willing to pay 3.6 million for a shoplot in kinarut on the middle of nowhere.

This is a very silly statement. Do you really not know how city council procedures work? Or bridging loan for banks and developer regulations?

This is very not OK.

The moment they do this, the entire property portfolio will have to revalue. You will have non-cash fair value reset, meaning GDP of 500 million project will be revalued in it's entirety by 50%.

The true value of the project will be disastrous. Not to mention those who bought the project before at 1 million will immediately riot.

Some very simple minded investors out here. Calvin I'm losing more and more respect for your analytical skills. You were annoying before, now is just plain 3 stooges. Please delete your WhatsApp group for stock picking. It's like Kong hee asking church goers to donate money to the check for him to buy a private jet so he can fly everywhere to preach.

>>>>>>>>>

Sell it at 50% discount at Rm500k also very ok mah

Sure Calvin, whatever you say.

But in a way I believe you Calvin. Same like asiapac directors who bought at 30 cents they have been waiting for investors to push the price up so they can sell it off.

I'm sure the asiapac directors also got their shares at low low price so they can afford to wait 5 years or more for price to go up so they can dump.

Calvin also waiting for asiapac share price to go up since 2015 so he can dump more of his shares on unsuspecting investors.

But sadly while waiting for price to go up Calvin unable to enjoy good dividends while losing many nights sleep because asiapac share price has dropped tremendously since he first hold on 2015 onwards...

So we see Calvin strategy. He wants to pump and dump you and get rid of his "free" shares that he is stuck in.

I think if foreigners like Calvin also will not buy 1m properties in kepong.

But I agree, no one willing to pay 1m now for properties in these areas, only in PJ and KL areas I will even consider.

This is called real intrinsic value. Calvin value for 400 acre in labu he can put whatever price he want. But if no one willing to pay up for the land the real value is last transaction and price willing to be paid by a developer with money to develop.

Hard to find those nowadays.

Being afraid of losses and being smart with your investment in 2 very different things.

Without regards to being investor in asianpac I give you some example:

In 2015 calvintaneng put 100,000.00 into asiapac. How much money does Calvin have today?

In 2015 old uncle put 100,000.00 into epf. How much money does old uncle have today?

You are very smart nepo, there is no guaranteed profit. But there is such thing as guaranteed risk.

If you put your head into lion mouth you may not die, but if you jump into quicksand chances pretty high you will die.

In essence, why take high risk for low reward? Asiapac has been selling since 1913, and on Bursa main board for very long time. If it hasn't performed for a long time, what makes you think they will perform now when debts are high?



>>>>>>>>

Posted by Nepo > Jun 5, 2019 2:27 PM | Report Abuse

Every biz, every investment does carry risk. There is no guarantee profit. If u are afraid of losses, e.g. Imago depreciates in value or some reasons or others, then investment and biz are not your piece of cake. You are only suitable for nine-to-five job 朝九晚五的工作。U get it?

So said Herbert.

Then he became frustrated.

Hi valor, asiapac fortuna centra is very nice place, have you considered buying the units they are selling?

They are selling their unit 1377sqft service apartment for 1 million. Yes it is worth a lot, do you think you will want to buy it? Is it a good deal?

Do you think the unit is worth 1 million in kepong? I'm interested to know how long before you think a 1377 sqft unit in the outskirts of kepong at 1m is considered cheap.

As for me, I bought my subang bungalow long time almost 15 years ago at 350k.

I haven't bought any apartments since.

1 million service apartment maximum rental yield there is 2000 per month if you are lucky. Not including maintenance and utilities.

Anyone who buys these apartments at these prices for investment insane.

Using this analogy, those who eat healthy food a be vegetables have proven to have longer live, healthier and better standard of living.

Those who eat too much steak end up overweight, full of health problems, be prepared for her at attack and heart bypass.

My advise, even though eating steak is a very good temptation, skip eating too much fatty food and stick to simple, balanced and clean diets.

Skip the steak, it is risky and full of carcinogens. Not to mention expensive and bad for the heart.

Calvin full of heart problems? Then stop investing in risky bets, stick to wonderful INVESTMENTs instead of cheap food err I mean low quality INVESTMENTs.

Apologies for the horrible food analogy, but I have been enjoying a horrible long holiday using our harvest festival+gawai+Raya to take a road trip holiday in Penang. The food in Penang, kelantan, perlis and terengganu over puasa month is simply incredible.

Hi Kcchongz, the Altman Z is a wonderful tool, conceptually. I use the metrics often in defining what is a good business and what is not. I truly believe that one cannot use just one metric (20 sma, PE ratio, debt level, NTA, etc) to define quality.

However I have an issue with this:

Z-Score = 1.2A + 1.4B + 3.3C + 0.6D + 1.0E

The fine tuning of ratios were based on taking a group of US companies performance 40 years ago to define what is risk. It is very difficult to apply to a group of US companies in 2000, much less comparing Bursa companies in 2019. The definitions are very very different here from my experience.

Let me simplify what I mean.

Suppose we bring 10 tour busses to Penang to taste the BEST and WORSE food in Penang, and we define metrics it into sweet, salty, spicy, tasty, price, service, location. You will find that the best places to eat are high on everyone's lists, BUT you will find that the gray area can be very fluid.

So using the average results to get a median gray area, you would tune your ratios to get the formula you want.

Penang-Z = 1.3(A kayu benchmark taste) + 1.4(B sisters charkoayteow benchmark service) + 3.3(C gurney drive cendol benchmark location and price)

As time passes by, you benchmarks will change, affecting your formula.

When you come back ten years later, you will realize that the best restaurants will still be there, however on the gray area end, places which you thought were pretty good have gone bankrupt and close down, while places which you thought were pretty bad, are still alive and kicking.

So in the end, formulas should be used sparingly, nothing beats scuttlebutt, as you apply multiple mental models and different analytical analysis differently based on industry, location and business triggers.

It can be very hard to quantify sometimes. But of course I applaud the effort, I believe very few investors know about Altman Z concepts, or even how to apply it.

Never stop learning something new every day.

Calvin knows nothing about asianpac or Sabah business except what he sees from an annual report. This kind of investing anyone can b do. That's why he has to buy 36 stocks to "diversify" and reduce his average risk. But his portfolio is a diverse pile of crap.

You will not find long term wealth here.

Directors are getting paid fat fees to do nothing for the shareholders except do RI and ICULS.

Meanwhile.... Calvin has not been receiving any increase in share price or dividends since 2015.

So sad, must pray for him. He says he has 200% returns though, but if he invested in companies like TALAMT, PROTASCO, KARAMBUNAI and ASIAPAC can you really believe him?

For other investors I apologize, the only person I do this to is CALVINTANENG, this Singaporean snake has been irritating me for a long while now, and he started a WhatsApp scam to get followers to follow him bulk buy into stocks which he frontrun, so I am pretty much here to destroy him.

pausing for effect.... I apologize. I forgot that no smart investor listens to calvin at all. Only 20 year old new kids into I3 who think calvin is a chun chun call artist.

But this becomes worse... if they did not listen to calvin and buy ASIAPAC... why did they buy ASIAPAC and get stuck at 30 sen in the first place? Are they getting another source of income? Say..... millions of director fees?

>>>>>>

WHERE GOT PROOFS DIRECTORS BOUGHT ASIAPAC AT 30 SEN AFTER LISTENING TO CALVIN

Sorry calvin, I am already in your WhatsApp group. Why do you think you pxxxd me off and made me start a proper portfolio so you will not be another city harvest church founder and add new members to follow you buycalls?

Think carefully, I don't give 2 shakes of a leg how you do your investing.

But if you start pulling in 20 year old kids to go into margin and put a huge chunk of borrowed money into your loss making investments with no margin of safety at all, and make them go bankrupt.

I will go at you with every force I am able to muster.

I WILL NOT ALLOW YOU TO CHEAT, DEFRAUD AND HURT LITTLE KIDS.

This is very true, but another true point is did they pay 30 sen for their shares? Are they buying more shares at 13.5 sen?

The last time asiapac directors bought shares were in 2016 after listening to calvintaneng buy call.

The last time asiapac major shareholder buy shares were in 2015 after listening to calvintaneng buy call.

The last time company do a major buyback of shares at low price 13.5 sen was...……… NEVER.

If directors don't buy shares at cheap prices, major shareholders don't buy shares at cheap price, company doesn't do buyback (or dividend) at cheap prices.... why should general public buy a 1.4 billion NTA company at cheap prices?

Oh wait.... they don't. ASIAPAC is worth 160 million because all stuck due to Paster KONG HEE RECOMMENDATION err I mean Calvin Tan the FRAUD.

Rights issue in 2017,
ICULLS in 2018.

Where is the money? Why no profit? Why need to raise more and more and more money from general public?

Only PASTOR CALVINTANENG FROM I3 HARVEST CHURCH KINOWS... or does he?

>>>>>>

Posted by calvintaneng > Jun 4, 2019 2:07 PM | Report Abuse
PHILIP

YOU MUST TAKE NOTE THAT ASIAPAC DIRECTORS/INSIDERS ARE ALL HOLDING THEIR SHARES TIGHTLY AS HIGH AS 30 SEN

IF THEY ARE BEARISH THEY WOULD HAVE SOLD AND NOT HOLDING ON

IF INSIDERS HOLDING AT 30 SEN OUTSIDERS LIKE US CAN HAPPILY HOLD AT 13.5 SEN

No more new stock predictions and companies to promote calvin? Strong buying attitude. Mine telling us how many lots you are buying so I can edit your portfolio with REAL results? If not convenient, maybe you can just give a percentage of DESTINI versus your entire 36 stock portfolio so we can have confidence of how much to buy relative to our stock portfolio.

Also: the performance 2019 of your portfolio from buycalls until now in total. How? Should we trust you? Im sure we can, as you are a strong wonderful, Singaporean Christian pastor investor.

Nothing like kong hee at all. Right? You wont lead us to big losses in DESTINI?

>>>>>>>

https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/123029.jsp

Hi valour, this is not a hate filled tirade. In fact I enjoy going to imago and hope no problems arise, it is the best managed mall in KK.
Madam Kwan just opened, and I like it very much, this nasi bojari.

However.....

there is a difference between investing and scuttlebutt.

I only seek to explain why since 2015 the shareprice is going down, why the PE is so low (PE can also mean price expectation for company growth), why a 1.4 billion NTA company need to raise funds borrow money and do ICULS.

In life it is the same as in investing. Stay away from debt, huge borrowings and inability to grow the business. Understand your competitors and peers and how the industry is doing as a whole. Do profitable activities and stay away from loss making companies.

>>>>
Posted by valour > Jun 4, 2019 1:42 PM | Report Abuse
Another hate filled tirade so predictable . Really no fun