Then you buy lo, since you know how to value it. Really bodoh, everything I say need to argue. Argue for the sake of arguing. With nothing useful to add. Need to spam every single thread?

Everyday spam whole thread. Drown out all comments. So low class.

I think it may be easier to teach stockraider how to think in lateral terms. If Stockraider is so adept at buying and selling stocks in the short term, I give him a chance to compare the results of his yearly investment against KLCI benchmark.

This is the year on year performance ( share price turn) of the 30 biggest companies in bursa Malaysia, indexed.

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
45.2 19.3 0.8 10.3 10.5 -5.7 -3.9 -3.0 9.4 -5.9

The local passive investing, if you will.

In 2017, choivo did 12.2%, but in 2018 he had a total turnaround with -17.95% returns. Of course, if you do benchmarking, the average retirees who put money into the index made money in 2017 and lost money in 2018, so you can say the Jon choivo active management is underperforming retiree passive management.

I wonder what is stoneraider year on year performance like, for him to be so confident and say sapura will be a 70 billion dollar company in 3 years 3 months.

Or does he not keep track of his own investing performance, but same like Calvin tan just spout out whatever stocks he likes, but did not act on anything material?

I believe 2019 will be a good year, but will you outperform the benchmark index?

It comes down to risk, the management of risk and the avoidance of losses.

For me, PCHEM is a much safer investment route. With safety comes a lower degree off the possibility of losses, buy the possibility of long term share appreciation is also lower.

With topglove in relation it is the more risky investment. With risk comes higher chance of losses ( as wth the noted 20% unrealised losses since November) because of the aspion purchase etc. Buy if it works out the share appreciation is also higher ( as shown by the 5 year performance of holding into topglove).

It depends on your risk appetite and your age. I chose PCHEM for my 78 year old father in law and wife, because the investment is better than putting it into fixed deposit, with an acceptable risk level considering the long term returns.

I chose topglove for myself because I have been holding onto it since 2010, and the revenue, earnings and dividends are all growing, with a few hiccups.

I guess it all comes down to margin of error.

PCHEM would have to go drastically wrong ( with plants exploding and killing many people), or changing legislation like the pasir gudang dumping case,or sudden speculation if feedstock prices for the investment to turn sour. I don't think the are many competitors for PCHEM in South East Asia able to compete with it. PCHEM is more predictable, thus the lower PE. I expect it to return dividends and share price increase 15% annually, which is my margin of safety.

TOPGLOV has more competitors, and which it has 25% market share, the is some uncertainty with regards to margin compression due to competition, misjudgement of the world demand for gloves, rubber prices going up and others. It is this is predictable, and more prone to market sentiment ( and short interest). I expect it to earn 20% annually over the long term as a minority shareholder, in terms of share price increase and dividends.

I would benchmark it against fixed deposit, which pays 4%, guaranteed return and protection of capital, which I would pay exactly PE 1.

Hi titus, I will be the first to tell you I don't know which I will purchase, that's why I purchase both. I don't have the skill like Warren buffet or Calvin tan or jon choivo to see the future or can calculate the number crunching as a auditors. All I know is to identify good companies.

I believe in the glove market will continue to grow at 10% a year, and PCHEM to benefit from pic in the long term. Other than that I just monitor quarterly reports and see if the story has changed.

I bought both, buy personally I think PCHEM is safer buy slower growth, but TOPGLOV and harta has better long term growth but higher volatility in price change.

If you are using cash I guess glove counters are good, if you have to use margin I guess PCHEM is probably safer.

Yes they can. I can force you to contribute into EPF. Even as an adult I can still force you.....

The last time they hit 70 million was 31st December 2010. Or am I wrong?

If stoneraider is so certain his crystal ball tell him sapura can hit 70 billion in 3 years, why not just sell everything, buy every single share of sapura you can and leave the forum, ignore the noise.

I don't get it. INSAS maximum you said can get to rm3 only. Sapura is rm3 in 3 years.

In 3 years INSAS has never even performed at all.

Why don't all in sapura?

Sapura is a sure winner no? Rm3 in 3 years 3 months...

Seee.... The stoneraider copy past entire thread spam messaging has begun. He will pollute your thread and drown out every voice.

Good luck.

But don't worry, I'm sure RCECAP is a wonderful investment. I will continue to monitor it closely in the coming years.

When management is able to execute a full turnaround from a logistics and trucking company into a international fpso company and grow from 100 million revenues per quarter in 2016 to 250 million revenues per quarter in 2018 I have no issues with ESOS.

When a management is able to take the world glove market by storm and go from 500 million revenue per quarter to 1.2 billion revenue per quarter, I have no issues with ESOS.

And these are international companies which has never lost money or a negative quarter, it's business is competing internationally, and are performing far above its peers.

It took 10 years got rcecap to get back to it's 70 million a quarter revenues and earnings level. Will it move to bigger heights in the future? Will it take 10 years to reach 140 million a quarter in revenues? Will it keep it's profit margins and earnings?

Is it worth paying the ESOS to management and workers for this kind of performance?

>>>>

Talking about ESOS to family members, have you seen's TopGlove's? What do you think of it? Or Yinson's?

price 1.64 pe 6 roe 16% profit margin 36% dy 4.8%
14/03/2019 17:37.

Why is its pe6 low? It's because intelligent investors know that terminal value has been hit and the business will struggle to grow bigger in the future. It has yet to hit all time high in any department.

If you know a company can't grow, why pay more?

My biggest holding (capital employed wise) is STNE. If you are taking about QL, I did buy in December 50k shares@6.25. I haven't sold a single share yet. Compounded growth and all that.

Your idea of mediocre business is a good investment at a low enough price is an outdated inneficient cigar butt 1930's concept that had already been given up by Warren Buffett a long long time ago,. He promotes buying wonderful companies at fair prices. RCECAP is far from a wonderful company.

This has already been proven by comparing minority shareholder performance if you bought time 5 years ago, RCECAP 5 years ago and aeon credit 5 years ago.

Your concept is flawed because you assume to know the future by deciding that share price is a determinant of the quality of a business in the long term.

That is a wrong way to invest money in the long run. Trust me, I bought one stock for 10 years and have monitored all other stocks by this benchmark. Very few pass the test of time. RCECAP in 10 years did not. Especially not with the bank negara rules ( 10 year maximum loan length) in place.

The determinant of the quality of a business, is it's long term growth, investing revenues, increasing earnings and investing dividends.


And as a minority shareholder, ROE, profit margin, PE is useless if evaluated on its own. As a minority shareholder, what effects you is SHAREHOLDER value. Dilution of shares. Share buybacks. Rights issue. Warrants. Dividends. Share price growth. and in Malaysia ICULS, preferred shares, convertibles.

But of course taken in vacuum that is also silly.

One must also think like a BUSINESS OWNER. Return on capital employed, debt, quality of debt, gearing, revenue, earnings, non performing loans, loan size per person, number of borrowers, the investment grade of borrowers, collateral, performance of peers, the industry projections and horizons, bank negara projections, government (LGE) projections, government salary projections, bond projections, lending criteria, staff employed, performance and growth per branch, branch locations, kpi and performance bonus and (ESOS) for employees and management. And most important, what is the possibility of a bank run, and how much of a hit can RCECAP absorb, before a repeat of what happened 10 years ago reoccurs when the rules change came into effect.

Reducing investment to just 5 metrics is insane for me.

A simple investor is a poor investor.

That is why I don't understand investors who are able to buy 30 stocks, when they can't even name the top 5 management team, their track record and all of the above at the top of their head.

You read the report many many times I assume. Can you name me the top 5 managers without referring back to the report? ( Warren buffet remembers all the managers of his companies by name). If you can do that can you name all the metrics I just put out above as it is all interrelated.

If you can't, I suggest you read the reports a few more times and memorize the details, or stick to companies you are familiar with.

Scam article to get readers into a AD filled blog. Pathetic!

Any company that can only manage 1 chicken egg farm, shows a lack of management capacity to grow it's business horizontally. Not having a good team of managers that can grow it's business organically or via m&a will usually lead to trying to diversify into different businesses.i do not agree with this. If it can't grow it's own egg poultry business ( grow vertically with broilers, frozen products and retail), but decides to go into developing and property investment? I think is a company that I would avoid, as you will not see focus and a good management.

There is a reason why this company has a low PE ratio.

Pass.

stockraider bought a lot of sapura at 0.29, he is hoping sapura to become next rm3 company in 3 years 3 months.

shhhhhhhh...... later stoneraider and sslee come over and camp with their pitchforks and firebrands...

heresy!

The problem with investing is valuations keep changing based on material information. I try to invest with the assumption that if I have a m16, and my management is Rambo, I just worry more about the bodycount, and less about Rambo. He will do well in the long run and appear in many more movies.

Giving extra ESOS to his children no less who is the head of RCECAP. Why not? Slowly take away and dilute all of minor shareholder value, and giving it to his kids, which are not exactly the best managers in town ( look at the management services division, pathetic.) Contrast their management performance to AEON credit, which as you say basically do the same thing. Which has grown better MINORITY SHAREHOLDER value in terms of share price and growing dividends? Which has increased the business value over the years. And still you want to award ESOS for average management. I wonder how much ESOS did they award the workforce of aeon credit?

That answers your question right there.

And that is also why major funds ( only around 14 million shares, really wise) are avoiding investing in this penny stock.

I would not want to invest my future epf money here.

Average company. How long do we have to wait until the business gets to all time high in revenue, profits and share price? The last time share price was above rm2 was in 2007.

Limited prospects, terminal value, limited growth.

I pass.

Berkshire Hathaway does not have ESOS because the owners and shareholders are aligned. QL does not have ESOS because the shareholders and owners are aligned. Nestle Malaysia does not have ESOS because the shareholders and owners are aligned. PCHEM also does not have ESOS because the shareholders are aligned.

I am sure ESOS can make a difference in motivation of workers productivity (not always, as only those at the top regularly take advantage), but the dilution of shares at a cheaper cost is a COST of doing business, that I calculate when I value a company.

Those who don't look at it in that way needs to reevaluate what they call wonderful stocks.

Hopefully some auditor can explain further...

As at end of this quarter, the Group has an unutilised tax allowance balance of RM99 million which can be utilised for the coming quarters profit.

TOPGLOV paid 30 million in taxes this quarter, I wonder if they will be using a part of this tax allowance to strike off their income tax in the coming quarter to give out all time high net profits and extra dividends?

HAHAHA, trying to leverage on other people's name, so desperate now? Good good... Buy more sapura, 70 billion company in 3 years 3 months...
But stoneraider say INSAS best company of 2019, meaning you sold all your INSAS sailang into sapura? Good good...
>>>>>>>


Posted by stockraider > Mar 14, 2019 12:04 AM | Report Abuse

A CHINCHAI BADLY MANAGE AND FINANCIAL IN TROUBLE STOCK LIKE FGV, CAN SHOOT UP ALMOST 50% !!...DO U KNOW HOW MUCH SAPNRG CAN SHOOT UP, WHEN THE POTENTIAL UNLEASHED LEH ??

DO U WANT TO BE A RICH BUGGER LIKE KYY, PHILIP , 3iii OR LIKE THE MODEST HUMBLE RAIDER LEH ??

IF YES...SAPNRG IS YOUR ANSWER LOH...!!

The office slave just bought RCECAP at 400,000 shares at a price of RM1.37. Immediately sell it for 30 cents profit. Wow! I wonder who is going to pay for that 30 cents, if not the shareholders of RCECAP.

ooi, dont make a mistake, SAPNRG will hit RM3 in 3 years 3 month, 70 billion market cap dont play play

Here raider philip no agree with you lo...... buy INSAS not good meh? I dont forget about INSAS mah... stoneraider say it is best stock of 2019, but now he say Sapura going to be 70 billion company in 3 years...

How leh, deep deep investing is good mah..

PE50 everyone complain overvalue, now selling at PE25, still end of the world?

Depends on how you look at it. If you not playing margin, its more like 25% discount. last quarter I buy 5.8. This quarter i buy 4.32. Then next quarter I buy 3.40. If in 2 years time it goes back to 5.8 (which I am sure it will since it is still market leader with 26% world market share), I would have earned back everything, and more.

So again, for a good stock with no changing business model, its DISCOUNT DAY!!! 25% off everything.

>>>>>>
ray1980 Some ppl bought at 5.80<>,loss 25% already.

lazycat, for november last year? yeah its true, I was using the previous 2 quarters of dividends to top up on it anyway. no choice have to pay for the mistakes that is aspion, and the new 2% short selling allowed as part of the bond sales agreement. Management did apologize, but its not like the business model changed or the industry changed. The long term business model is still there. I'm just not good at timing my investments.

Small matter, I just bought 100 lots @ 4.32 today (discount day today), while pending the quarterly report release in the next few days. Small little bite, and if the QR report shows good result, the share price will increase. If the share price drops further, I can buy more.

Note that I am still confident on their ability to raise their earnings and pay out dividends. With dividends of 17 cents last year, I doubt they will cut that any time soon. They are still earning 400 million a year, with 200 million in dividends.

If only the share price will drop to 3.4, then I can really margin all in.

Topglove is still adding 148 lines this year and next, with 18.4 billion of glove production a year.

20% paper loss is not the same as 20% business revenue and earnings loss.

Many seem to have forgotten all time high revenue in December and wonderful profits.

When everyone is downgrading TOPGLOV, now is the perfect time to buy. QR in 3 days.

Oh so Herbert Chua soi lek real name is Shane?

It's a girl I knew it! No wonder so emotional.

Sapura got possibility to make money I'm sure, but if you buy it expecting it to go to X10, I think better go tanning rambutans

Your guess is wrong, because it is clouded not by facts, but because you want it to work out.

Don't guess, find out exactly where it is coming from.

Don't confuse depreciation with capital allowance. Big, huge, difference.

Times 10 in 3 years hahahaha the next Amazon!

Laugh die me.

Up to you to believe whatever you wish. I see no such thing in all my other profitable companies (which have never registered a loss) like TOPGLOV, YINSON, PCHEM, QL. Their ppe capital expenditure dwarfs TIME any day every year. And yet I see no such capital allowance at all. The only ones I see are from turnaround companies that have made huge losses before and carried out forward to their profitable years to rationalize their investments.(LGE says hi.)

Very simple question.

What capital expenditure did they do in 2018(or 7 years in), which would allow them to do temporary difference of (72,540,000) ?

You build a fiber network. This is usually 14% if it was depreciation. So in this case you think the ppe is for what item? And it was done this year? Try thinking business sense. What exact unutilised capital allowance are we doing here. Family mart? Fpso ship conversion? New glove production lines? New urea plant?

This is why I like to keep my investments easy and simple to understand.

All I need to know is, if TIME continues to be profitable next year, will they be able to claim temporary differences of 72 million tax expense reduction every year forever? In which case this is no longer temporary, but permanent.

So if you think they can continue to waive off 72 million every year ( LGE says no) without any changes upcoming, on a growing profit before tax of 300 million. For the next 5-10 years?

Then you should buy. Buy much much more. Put all your investments into this one stock.

Because the government is bankrolling TIME over my other companies QL, TOPGLOV, PCHEM and YINSON. Which all seem to have to pay 24% tax, despite record capital investments.

>>>>>>>

An unutilised capital allowance is created each year when they buy PPE, and used each year when they are profitable. This means the probabilities of it being older than 7 years is more like zero.

FYI this only works if I don't have to take money from the public, the investors/partners are clearly stated, percentages fixed. We are all partners in the company, wth me as technical manager.

I teach you a better way. Create a partnership holding company, each member put money into the business, capitalize the company properly and get a company secretary to ratify. Do it by the word of the law, not little scraps of paper wiring IOU . Our company just happened to be based in Singapore. The principle activity is investment holding. No staff, directors manage everything themselves. I don't have any salary, no management fee nothing. What I have is 40% stake in the company. We hire a Singapore firm to do our company secretarial work as well as the accounting.

Same thing with my wife and father in law money. Limited Partnership investment holding company.

A limited fixed, "closed end" fund disguised as a partnership company.

Which we pay no tax for.

Here free lesson for you. I have been running this for years.

http://www.hasil.gov.my/pdf/pdfam/PR_10_2015.pdf

>>>>>>>>>

Phillip,

The reason why its illegal to collect other people money into your account, is because it constitutes deposit taking activity. Which you definitely need a license for.

If you're doing so, i suggest you consider splitting it up into their own individual accounts, and try and manage it by making the proportion of shares similar across all accounts.

No psperplane... You must trust stockraider and margin sailang into this stock.... He say in 3 years sapnrg will be worth rm3, 73 billion dollar company!

Most margin sailang all now. Stockraider recommended stocks sure good one!

Completely different things with the exact same application and purpose, to reduce the amount of taxable income to be paid to government.

LGE says no more.

KUALA LUMPUR, Nov 2 ― Business entities are allowed to carry forward unabsorbed losses and unutilised capital allowances in a year of assessment for a maximum period of seven years of assessment, said Minister of Finance Lim Guan Eng.

So now the question with you unutilized capital allowance has a time limit. When does the music end for time dotcom? When does this 7 year reflection end.

Or you believe, they can continue to pay 5% tax forever?

SSLEE, stockraider promoting sapura, he says it can go from 7 billion to 70 billion market cap in 3 years...

You should buy some!

Haha Korean drama like 70 billion sapura in 3 years??? HAHAHAHA return of the Titanic!

72 billion sapura 3 years hehehehehe....y not 1 year? 1 year cannot?

If that is the case then I should be worried more for Jon lo. Because for income tax evasion and fraud, I have seen my friends with own companies vomit blood but in the end can negotiate and pay the fine.

For SC I really worry now. I hope Jon choivo is really only bullshit only la like stoneraider, and no taking monies from 3rd party investors.

If got really bad news...

Become successful I think still possible, because it's Max cap was around 50 billion before during the height of oil prices.

But today it is at the bottom, so go up is also possible to make some money.

But go up beyond 100 per barrel price, and grow it's business to become 70 billion dollar company..... Laugh die me...

Haha stoneraider 79 billion, sapura hardsell rm3 in 3 years. Laugh die me, you think is a Amazon or Apple?

Help, I can't take him seriously anymore! HAHAHAHA everything he says is useless now...

I'm confused. Can someone explain?

>>>>>>>
Now for more information. Go to your latest time quarterly report, go to note 16 under tax earnings. Go to recognition of previously unrecognized temporary differences. Tell me exactly what that means. That quarter, (18,286,000). That cumulative year (72,540,000). Go ahead, I'm waiting.

While you are doing that, try explaining to me how a company that makes (304,811,000) in profit before tax only pays (16,141,000) in taxes. That is like paying 5% tax, no?

Isn't the tax rate 24%? They should be paying 73 million in tax, after minusing the 14 million allowable, tax should still be around 59 million to pay.

Explain me that.

Nice a 5g versus fiber report done in 2017 September. Try harder.


Now for more information. Go to your latest time quarterly report, go to note 16 under tax earnings. Go to recognition of previously unrecognized temporary differences. Tell me exactly what that means. That quarter, (18,286,000). That cumulative year (72,540,000). Go ahead, I'm waiting.

While you are doing that, try explaining to me how a company that makes (304,811,000) in profit before tax only pays (16,141,000) in taxes. That is like paying 5% tax, no?

Isn't the tax rate 24%? They should be paying 73 million in tax, after minusing the 14 million allowable, tax should still be around 59 million to pay.

Explain me that.

Even DAYANG investors laugh at you. PANDAN muka...

Haha stoneraider 79 billion, sapura hardsell rm3 in 3 years. Laugh die me, you think is a Amazon or Apple?

But stoneraider say his stock will hit rm3 or 70 billion in 3 years woh....