I'm sorry KC. Someone who is not rich (period), whose analysis and results have not yielded results ( despite him trying to get everyone to agree with him) you need to be very clear. If you still continue to listen to him, then losses will be in your head.

If someone who goes around spouting value investing and charges 5000 for looking at your stock and charges you management fee for stock picking but makes you buy assets that perform worse than epf, I can that outright fraud.

“The stock investor is neither right or wrong because others agreed or disagreed with him; he is right because his facts and analysis are right.”

I am on Ben Graham side on this.
>>>>>>

A young man who is not rich (yet) from investing doesn't mean he is not knowledgeable and sharing good stuff. In my opinion, he has shared with many good stuff. On the other hand, an old rich man who has made a lot of money in the stock market(seemingly too) doesn't mean he is a good investor and everyone must worship him, and more so if he is sharing with noble intention.

Personally, I find the author of this thread has good knowledge investing in his own way, bearing in mind that if one follows a right way of investing, and there are many right ways, he will do well in the future.

How do you define substance? If someone who posts a lot of blogs, but no results to show, is that considered substance?

The only reason why you listen to Warren Buffett and Charlie munger-is because you can see their financial results over 50 years and see that they have a proven record, so their advice is worth listening to.

If you hear someone who only has 2 years negative investment record telling you how to INVEST, what would you do, follow her advice?

What more someone who professed to do long term value investing, and yet has never held a stock longer than 2 years?

And sell it for parts.

Do you have access to the cash flow and cash assets as minority shareholder?
No you don't. All you have access to is dividends and share price increase.

I suggest you pay attention to that very important fact, and keep that in your mind in your valuation of any investment. There is a reason why they call it a value trap. Same with INSAS. Same with Parkson. Same with xinquan.

You cannot use one single metric to evaluate a company.

If you could and investing was easy, I would buy Parkson, with a market cap of 267 million but with net assets of 3.6 billion. And cash of 1.18 billion.


>>>>>>
AGAIN WHY HARPING ON GROWTH WHEN YOUR CASHFLOW YIELD IS 17% PA LEH ??

Really brainless SOHAI

Topglove net profit

2014 183million
2015 281 million
2016 362 million
2017 330 million
2018 437 million

What part of net profit is collapsing you sohai idiot.

STOP MISLEADING MY INVESTORS AND FAMILY WITH FALSE INFORMATION THAT IS PUBLICLY AVAILABLE.
STICK TO YOUR CAVE.

STAY AWAY. OR START YOUR OWN BLOG.
I won't be reading or replying further.

It's probably because those who don't have any results to show talk(write) too much and too loud about investment strategies that the only way to shut them up is to actually compare portfolio results over long period of time to see if their investment strategies are actually viable.

Well? 3 things matter. How long have you invest. How much have you interested. What your annualized growth rate really is over a long period of time.

>>>>>>>>>>>>

Ricky Yeo Why do some elderly loves to tell people like how much is their portfolio? Imagine Bezos going around "Hey, I got $80 billion, what do you know?"

Revenue is all time high la stupid SOHAI. Disposable product how to become cyclical bodoh? You think petronm with scheduled shutdown? Do you even know what is cyclical business? You stupid or something? Annually every year HARTA and TOPGLOV did better than the previous year for upteen years. Stick to your sapura and INSAS, you brainless office boy.

I repeat, don't pollute my blog. Or I will have to shut down replies again.

My blog is for people who seek knowledge, not those who shut their brain and repeat useless information.

GO AWAY.

Please open annual report for all the producers and check trade journals. Rubber glove market is a disposable product which needs to be replaced every time you use it. The entire world market is growing by more than 10% yearly for the past 10 years. Mature markets( USA, Japan) are growing slower, but the other markets are growing by 30+%.
Please open page 27 of the annual report la SOHAI.

Stop posting your nonsensical remarks ( in ALL CAPS nonetheless) and stay away from my blog. I wrote it. You are not welcome. Go away stockraider. And stop asking me to buy shit like INSAS.

>>>>>
1. ADDING MORE CAPACITY MEANS CREATING MORE PROBLEM TO THE ALREADY GLUT OF RUBBER GLOVES AND ITS SELLING PRICE AND THIS WILL IMPACT ITS PROFIT & MARGIN MAH...!!

Gut feeling is merely all the mental models you carry around in your mind working together, forming a latticework of related information guiding your subconscious mind into an Aha! Moment of fear or hope decision.

The is something to be said about gut feeling when wielded by long years of experience.

But looking bigger picture at the 5 year results of its technology owner OKI electric industries (Japan) shows a stagnating and slowing growth over the past 5 years, share price also stagnating and going down slowly. Even in their annual report, oki find that the internet adoption and the slowing down of their ATM machine usage internationally is quite worrying.

It shares a similar correlation to OPENSYS local dynamics.

You growth has to be spread between 8-10 years as the existing is still usable(and no requirement to replace new but maintain and run) and banks are moving more towards online transactions instead of via machine. My family and I pay all our bills, loans and transfers online these days as it is much more convenient than paying at the machine. I believe this trend is something that will grow further and not lessen as smartphones and internet get cheaper and cheaper.

CDM machines were brilliant as they were the disruptors of the day when they replaced the bank tellers job.

I firmly believe that the internet, smartphone app and digitisation of payments will further disrupt this chain of investment in the long term 5-10 years from now, reducing the need for high tech CDM, CRM machines, and maintaining existing machines only.

I may be wrong, and I dearly hope you are right as I have no position into OPENSYS. But I do think the best days are behind it. I wouldn't be surprised in the age of 5G payment machines going the way of the physical payphone.

Good luck in your investment. You know the environment better than my cursory glance.

Which is why I pointed out the fact that topglove is adding more production lines, more expansion, more r&d, more cost reduction activities, more improvement.

Hartalega is giving up 240 million every year from 400 million in earnings and giving it out as dividends.

TOPGLOV is giving out 190 million out of 400 million earnings, and using the retained earnings to grow bigger and extend its moat and improve its business.

TOPGLOV is cheaper to buy, and has better mix than HARTA.

I'm content to bet on this horse for the long term.

Lazy to be jealous of someone who talk alot but can't even put some money into longbets.org

Moving on.

Fatboy choivo thinks just because saying his articles are meaningless means I invest against him.

Your portfolio results are a load of crap. Performance wise average is still worse than EPF returns(6.15% in 2018, 6.9% in 2017, versus your 12.22% in 2017 and -17.95% returns in 2018). Volume wise is a drop of the ocean ( how much volume are you managing that even makes it worthwhile talking? EPF invests billions). If you can't manage small sums efficiently, how do you expect to handle ever larger amounts over time?

I would say be humble, learn and read. Get a working, profitable portfolio then you can be lohsoh as much as you like.

No results, high and mighty, and worse still comment like you know exactly what is going to happen. And taking money from so called investors ( the kind I hate the most)

Let me teach you a 20 year old lesson:

The market can stay weird for far longer than you can stay solvent.

You are a fraud, a "fake investment banker" with zero experience but good memorizer of books.

Stop being jealous of kyy and OTB results and returns. I repeat, meaningless article.

Get a life ( and a portfolio)!

FYI, a percentage increase/decrease each year without cost and market value is meaningless. You might as well doctor your results instead and get more "investors".

Personally, I think PCHEM would be a better buy for retirees and elders, if they are looking for a safe long term investment. It has the lowest risk Vs reward ratio in my stock portfolio.

Don't get me started on dividends, if you do a dcf analysis based on dividends, almost all the stocks you look at are a bad investment.

In either case, DCF also does not take into account many things.

>>>>>
Limitations of DCF Model

A DCF model is powerful but there are limitations when applied too broadly or with bad assumptions. For example, the risk-free rate changes over time and may change over the course of a project. Changing cost of capital or expected salvage values at the end of a project can also invalidate the analysis once a project or investment has already started.

Applying DCF models to complicated projects or investments that the investor cannot control is also difficult or nearly impossible. For example, imagine an investor who wants to purchase shares in Apple Inc. (AAPL) in late 2018 and decides to use DCF to decide whether the current share price is a fair value.

This investor must make several assumptions to complete this analysis. If she uses Free Cash Flow (FCF) for the model, should she add an expected growth rate? What is the right discount rate? Are there alternatives available or should she just rely on the estimated market risk premium? How long will she hold AAPL’s stock and what will its value be at the end of that period? Unfortunately, there's a lack of consistent answers to these questions, and since she cannot access AAPL’s cash flow as a minority shareholder, the model is not helpful.

If I were to pick up figures from the sky ( which is what DCF is all about), and use past historical figures only, my DCF calculated value for ql currently ( if no further growth triggers apply), I would be giving ql a dcf intrinsic value of rm18.65. if ql gets over the bump into the second growth challenge ( which I am confident they will do), I have an intrinsic value of rm26.47. if they perform beyond my wildest expectations and become the next Nestlé, my DCF is rm53.6. your guess is as good as mine.

I would need to earn at least 6% above( more than EPF rate), otherwise it would be unwise to invest in the future.

But SSLee you are buying a business. Not an asset. If you buy a lousy business with 1 refineries, it would not grow beyond that. But if you are buying pt murni which is one of the biggest privately owned plantations, your business will definitely grow beyond your original calculations 10 or 15 years ago.

Imagine rabbits breeding. When you first only paid for 2 pairs of rabbits, in 10 years you would have many many many pairs of rabbits, far beyond your wildest projections.

The challenge is to buy a male and female pair. After that you wait.

My quarterly report for TOPGLOV.

https://klse.i3investor.com/m/blog/phillipinvesting/197011.jsp

My quarterly report for ql

https://klse.i3investor.com/m/blog/phillipinvesting/197011.jsp

My quarterly report for yinson.

https://klse.i3investor.com/m/blog/phillipinvesting/197011.jsp

If you started by saying that parkson is a company valued at 267 million market cap, but has equity value of 3.7 billion, cash of 1.78 billion, net book value of buildings valued at 1.18 billion and much good will, then it would make a much more interesting position. If you told me that each time parkson sells one of its 44 department stores to h&m and zara it makes money, I'd be interested. If you started with the fact that if we were to liquidate the entire parkson we would make 4 times our investment cost at least, Id love to hear it.

What is this technical mumbo jumbo and Japanese harakiri? I can't make heads out tails at all. Is it pertinent information other than to tell you everyone is bearish about parkson and not it's future value?

>>>>>>>
The Group owns two pieces of land located in Tangerang Selatan, Banten, Indonesia with building use
rights (Hak Guna Bangunan or HGB). During the financial year, the HGB expiring on 18 December 2020
has been renewed and extended to 18 December 2040. The other HGB will expire on 20 October 2028.
Management believes that there will be no difficulty in extending the land rights since both the pieces of
land were acquired and supported by legal ownership

With an annual growth rate of 5%, a total market size of 17500 units, install base of 2500 machines ( if ask your past promotions of OPENSYS), the long term prospects of OPENSYS are pretty much set in stone.

OPENSYS is an average company selling for a fair price.

The questions that I usually ask of microcaps is what is its growth potential. First I look at the size of the CDM, ATM, CRM total market. How big is it in Malaysia. How easy is it to expand regionally and sell security sensitive ATM machines to Philippines, Indonesia etc? Then I look at the market size of OPENSYS, which is as you say 80% of the Malaysia market. Which is stagnating at 100 million a year since 2016? Including replacement and upgrading etc OPENSYS has been doing 100 million for the last 3 years. The question I ask is what is the life cycle of the machines? 8-10 years? What is the growth of bank branches and cash machines everywhere? With the introduction of digital payment transfers and payment via smartphone, will ATM survive the latest disruption coming from digitalisation of payments?

In my opinion, OPENSYS will never expand regionally. They license their technologies from Oki Japan, which already have other distributors in other countries.

OPENSYS only growth trigger now is to get Banks to revamp old systems to CRM machines, recycling cash automatically. If you go from 80% market share to 100% market share, you only increase revenue growth to 120 million a year. I think OPENSYS giving out dividends was a big mistake. They should have wisely used their retained earnings to find other growth triggers and organic growth, considering their close relationship with the banks.

As it is, if you believe as I do that OPENSYS growth opportunities are limited and won't have anymore spectacular growth ( 80% market share is not always a good thing), then the question to ask is if 3.79% dividend a year and a stagnating share price at around 0.36 cents since 2016 is worth putting money in for you?

Meaningless article. So full of speculative remarks that you waste so much time reading..... And learn nothing of import.

Let me sum it up for you. You think kyy and OTB are market movers. They buy early, promote and watch as the share price increase pulls the traders in. Then they get out and leave Jon lohsoh with the bag. Jon lohsoh doesn't think the companies they invested in are really all that good.

But what if it is? Will Jon lohsoh revise his article and apologize if the companies they invested in perform well?

And without knowing the future SSLee and using your current assumptions,
If you applied DCF for ql in 2009 you would have been wrong. If you applied it to TOPGLOV in 2010 based on your past data you would still be wrong. Heck, you can try to calculate your INSAS DCF in 2014, and you would have been horribly wrong. the problem with DCF is that your projections are all based on past historical data as your assumptions for the future. Investing is about making a risky bet on the future. DCF tells you nothing about risk or growth triggers.

I wonder what your DCF calculation told you about xingquan?

Don't forget when you apply DCF calculation you need to put in a terminal growth factor ( when growth stagnates), otherwise you will hit infinity and your DCF model falls apart. Not a very smart way to invest in a stock. Ql has grown for the last 20 years, how many more years of 10% growth do you foresee in your crystal ball?

Zero accounting value at end of life does not mean I cannot have a gain on disposal of asset, especially if it is a well run, well maintained asset in a difficult location and is still productive, no?

So you are trying to tell me pt murni plantation lands will have zero value when you evaluate its business value(lease hold lands cannot be renewed?). Or the 2 refineries that it has once you fully amortise it's cost after 7 years it suddenly is worth nothing( fully depreciated in financial report suddenly cannot still be productive)? Or the specialist workers and management that is working to make PT murni a success is not an intangible asset when you buy the business. The wonderful organisation you helped set up, the highly trained workers and bylaws and business practise you have brought down are amortized to zero with no further value in making of murni a well run company?

Simple question for you, sslee. Malaysia depreciation for plant and equipment can be expenses out by 14% each year for tax purposes. But in reality, do you scrap and replace new palm oil refineries every 7 years? Do you just scrap your 10 ton lorries after 7 years? It do you replaced parts, upgrade machinery and keep it chugging along far beyond its assumed end of life cycle?

I think you would need to convince me further on your concept of useful life of an intangible asset (like sslee PT muni organization costs)and tangible assets (like your refinery)

In the end you need to explain to me the concept of fair value, willing buyer and willing seller. If you tell me that when I buy PT murni I need throw away refineries after 7 years ( fully depreciated) and scrap lorries after 5 years for me it doesn't really make sense.

Most refineries and plantations I know have equipment running and maintained far beyond that.

Or am I making the wrong assumptions all this while? Appreciate if you can elucidate on real life valuations versus tax accounting.

Thanks for the pertinent information SSLEE.

Do you know what the information is trying to tell you?

Can anyone tell me what actions parkson is doing to reverse it's losses? Other than closing down store after store?

One key metric is volume investing. It is easy to get 50-60% returns in a stock. Just buy 1 lot of every small cap. At least a few of those stocks is sure to give you 100% returns in a few days. Easy to add that in your trading portfolio and do a write up and sell a subscription.

It is far harder to invest a meaningful amount of money over a much longer term without running into the dreaded margin call and cut loss.

The next time someone tells you he makes 30% in sapura or bumi armada etc, look at him and ask how much did he actually invest.

Which is why I kind of respect kyy, he puts large sums to back his investments, with margin to boot.

Bye little child.

May you grow up one day.g

A wonderful article for Stockraider, so he understands the reality of Petronas versus his imagination.

>>>>>>>
https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/fdnews/246705.jsp

It really depends on how much you punting. If I'm being perfectly honest, if I was starting out I'd pick just one stock and go with that. Easier to monitor.

But with even more honesty, don't trust any sifu or his stock recommendations. Make your own judgement, learn and understand the business first and foremost. Build your own circle of competence.

Start from the very first basic. If you can't name the CEO of the business, don't put your money into it's stock. If you can't remember of the top of your head how much revenue it did last year and it's profits, is dividends and the book value. Definitely don't invest in it.

It's what you charge people to invest in RCECAP right? I think my investment in STNE alone will blow it out of the water in 5 years.

*projected

If you want me to give you a deeper insight with all the CTOS information I get for maxincome SDN BHD and their protected growth rates, my deepest darkest secrets? Well, you are going to have to pay for that.

I charge you rm5000, for that full report.

And I have a full portfolio to show you my 10 year performance to prove it. Not percentage gain, but volume gain.

>>>>>>>>
You do understand your Co's. But I sometimes feel you don't really feel the quantitative effects, esp for example the effect of the additional stores on ql, and that imho, its not enough, considering the valaution.

Choivo, I still remember you saying you wanted to do a bet with your 10 year stock. For someone who processes to do long term investment holding, you sure don't have much confidence in your stock in performing over the long run. I'm still waiting for your stock choice Vs PCHEM over 10 years.

STNE is NYSE stock.

No one can time the market. I have tried. It doesn't. I stay away from anyone who tells you they have an algorithm that can tell you when to invest and when to sell. Especially when they can sell it to you for 5k only.

I'm sure, my results will definitely be lower than that because I invest quarterly ( which engineer has the money and foresight to throw 1 million into QL in 2000 and ride it today). All I know is I invest based on revenue, earnings and dividend growth. I usually let the share price take care of itself.

I do know that today my dividends from ql, topglove yinson far outweigh my original costs.
>>>>>>>

sich Philip,

QL, from 1.26M to 13.7M in 10 years. CAGR is 27%
Top Glove, from 1.3M to 9.2M in 9 years. CAGR is 24 %
Yinson, from 0.78M to 2.7M in 7 years. CAGR is 19%

Above CAGR based on if you invested all the cost at beginning. Since your cost was invested progressively the CAGR is higher.

Maybe you should delve deeper into what PE means ( try explaining it to your 10 year old child). For me pe is just an indicator of market demand, and not a true indication of the business itself.

Let me put it this way.
Imagine if you have a condo in klcc that you bought for 1 million. Currently you are renting it out for 3,000 a month. Your earnings per year is 36,000 a year. If you were to offer 50pe, you would saying that you want to buy that condo for rm1.8 million. Would you sell your condo in klcc for 1.8 million knowing that a few years down the road you would be renting it out for rm5,000 a month? If you think about it very carefully, 10-20 years down the road do you think condos in klcc will ever be sold at 1.8 million?

PE just takes into account you buying a business only for it's earnings. How about the good will? The cash and assets? The market monopoly? The competition? The market size? The growth opportunity?

For me I value QL with 50 PE simply because it has a competitive business advantage in a very very huge market. If I was an ahlong where I can only borrow money to poor uneducated Malaysian government workers (RCECAP) my market size is small. If I were an agrigiant that can do business in Malaysia, Australia, Japan, Indonesia, Vietnam etc and have the money and skills to break down the competition, my market size is massive.

That is why small penny stocks that do well but have small market size have single digit PE, while big companies that are growing internationally have higher PE.

Classic case of the mental model big fish in a small pond versus big fish in the ocean concept.

>>>>>
VenFx Only thing that puzzle me is why QL deserve at x 50 p.e. ?
Is it the quality of the future earning prospect or its biz segment family mart that lift QL's premium ?

Personally I think I am too old to be Apu and run a Kwik-E-mart.
I'd rather be Mr burns.

>>>>>>>>
Can i ask sir a question ?
Would you consider to venture into QL's 'family mart' biz or invest your money into QL ?
Mind to share their pros & cons ? Tq

Sadly, I did not have that luck. To be honest I didn't even know he existed. I was in engineering faculty, not social science. Although my life would probably have been very different if I studied economics instead. But I would not have had the same mental models. If I was stuck as an economist instead of an engineer/farmer I'm sure my mindset would have been much more rigid.

>>>>>
Bagus.nya our ivy.league.of.malaya

I am also a university of malaya graduate

Must be something in the water they serve in the canteen.

\{^___^}\. /{^___^}/

My quarterly report on PCHEM.
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/phillipinvesting/197011.jsp

when? today? I target 9.2 if we are looking at today?
When is your target date?

Excellent! I learned something new today. At least these are useful information, unlike boring one word answers.

There you have it! A perfect mathematical formula.

Woof!

>>>>>>>
Don't be so stupid Phillip.

I get your question, but like I said I don't really see the point. What would be the purpose to breakdown returns in such a way? I just simplify it by putting in the total amount of my entire period I put in, divided it out between the years and average it out.

If your goal is to say for example that TTB is smart in the beginning 2005 and dumb at the end of 2019, it doesn't work that way if its still all unrealized profits which can change in 2025 that makes him look like a genius if bursa market crashes and he is holding unto 250 million in cash earningg 3.5% that he can catch fish in a net with.

I always have discussions with my wife about the purpose of calculation versus the calculation method itself.

My wife is the actuarist in the family. If you want a mathematical model how to calculate that kind of CAGR you will need to ask her.

I would recommend putting it in the "why bother" pile, average it out and move in. It is called AVERAGE compounded growth for a reason. If you are looking for SPECIFIC compounded growth.... probably avr18 can give you a one word formula instead.

>>>>
Outliar My point being that nobody starts off with 100k in the 1st year and say ends up with 1m on the 10th year but never puts in any money between year 1 and year 10, what if he puts in 1k every month and 2k every month in the 2nd year and so on and so forth, how would one calculate CAGR?

Someone asked me question, I answered. Anything wrong?

Maybe you should stick to 1 word answers. You make more sense then.

>>>>>>>

antoniomc27 Philip, I learn a lot reading you and i3 forum in general.

In this case, and from my humble opinion, it is true that this kind of traditional brick-and-mortar or prone-to-digital-disruption businesses trade at depressed price for a reason. Time will tell if they are a good investment or not, but as Philippe says the potential for growth is severely capped.

I have a question for Philippe, though. For you, companies engaged on traditional businesses with low PE and which post slow but steady gains on top and bottom line, are worth investing in, or not? i am thinking of RCE capital, MBMR, BIMB or the likes. From your comments it looks like you would only consider high-growth stocks, but those can be found in a handful of sectors only.