Can anyone tell me what actions parkson is doing to reverse it's losses? Other than closing down store after store?

One key metric is volume investing. It is easy to get 50-60% returns in a stock. Just buy 1 lot of every small cap. At least a few of those stocks is sure to give you 100% returns in a few days. Easy to add that in your trading portfolio and do a write up and sell a subscription.

It is far harder to invest a meaningful amount of money over a much longer term without running into the dreaded margin call and cut loss.

The next time someone tells you he makes 30% in sapura or bumi armada etc, look at him and ask how much did he actually invest.

Which is why I kind of respect kyy, he puts large sums to back his investments, with margin to boot.

Bye little child.

May you grow up one day.g

A wonderful article for Stockraider, so he understands the reality of Petronas versus his imagination.

>>>>>>>
https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/fdnews/246705.jsp

It really depends on how much you punting. If I'm being perfectly honest, if I was starting out I'd pick just one stock and go with that. Easier to monitor.

But with even more honesty, don't trust any sifu or his stock recommendations. Make your own judgement, learn and understand the business first and foremost. Build your own circle of competence.

Start from the very first basic. If you can't name the CEO of the business, don't put your money into it's stock. If you can't remember of the top of your head how much revenue it did last year and it's profits, is dividends and the book value. Definitely don't invest in it.

It's what you charge people to invest in RCECAP right? I think my investment in STNE alone will blow it out of the water in 5 years.

*projected

If you want me to give you a deeper insight with all the CTOS information I get for maxincome SDN BHD and their protected growth rates, my deepest darkest secrets? Well, you are going to have to pay for that.

I charge you rm5000, for that full report.

And I have a full portfolio to show you my 10 year performance to prove it. Not percentage gain, but volume gain.

>>>>>>>>
You do understand your Co's. But I sometimes feel you don't really feel the quantitative effects, esp for example the effect of the additional stores on ql, and that imho, its not enough, considering the valaution.

Choivo, I still remember you saying you wanted to do a bet with your 10 year stock. For someone who processes to do long term investment holding, you sure don't have much confidence in your stock in performing over the long run. I'm still waiting for your stock choice Vs PCHEM over 10 years.

STNE is NYSE stock.

No one can time the market. I have tried. It doesn't. I stay away from anyone who tells you they have an algorithm that can tell you when to invest and when to sell. Especially when they can sell it to you for 5k only.

I'm sure, my results will definitely be lower than that because I invest quarterly ( which engineer has the money and foresight to throw 1 million into QL in 2000 and ride it today). All I know is I invest based on revenue, earnings and dividend growth. I usually let the share price take care of itself.

I do know that today my dividends from ql, topglove yinson far outweigh my original costs.
>>>>>>>

sich Philip,

QL, from 1.26M to 13.7M in 10 years. CAGR is 27%
Top Glove, from 1.3M to 9.2M in 9 years. CAGR is 24 %
Yinson, from 0.78M to 2.7M in 7 years. CAGR is 19%

Above CAGR based on if you invested all the cost at beginning. Since your cost was invested progressively the CAGR is higher.

Maybe you should delve deeper into what PE means ( try explaining it to your 10 year old child). For me pe is just an indicator of market demand, and not a true indication of the business itself.

Let me put it this way.
Imagine if you have a condo in klcc that you bought for 1 million. Currently you are renting it out for 3,000 a month. Your earnings per year is 36,000 a year. If you were to offer 50pe, you would saying that you want to buy that condo for rm1.8 million. Would you sell your condo in klcc for 1.8 million knowing that a few years down the road you would be renting it out for rm5,000 a month? If you think about it very carefully, 10-20 years down the road do you think condos in klcc will ever be sold at 1.8 million?

PE just takes into account you buying a business only for it's earnings. How about the good will? The cash and assets? The market monopoly? The competition? The market size? The growth opportunity?

For me I value QL with 50 PE simply because it has a competitive business advantage in a very very huge market. If I was an ahlong where I can only borrow money to poor uneducated Malaysian government workers (RCECAP) my market size is small. If I were an agrigiant that can do business in Malaysia, Australia, Japan, Indonesia, Vietnam etc and have the money and skills to break down the competition, my market size is massive.

That is why small penny stocks that do well but have small market size have single digit PE, while big companies that are growing internationally have higher PE.

Classic case of the mental model big fish in a small pond versus big fish in the ocean concept.

>>>>>
VenFx Only thing that puzzle me is why QL deserve at x 50 p.e. ?
Is it the quality of the future earning prospect or its biz segment family mart that lift QL's premium ?

Personally I think I am too old to be Apu and run a Kwik-E-mart.
I'd rather be Mr burns.

>>>>>>>>
Can i ask sir a question ?
Would you consider to venture into QL's 'family mart' biz or invest your money into QL ?
Mind to share their pros & cons ? Tq

Sadly, I did not have that luck. To be honest I didn't even know he existed. I was in engineering faculty, not social science. Although my life would probably have been very different if I studied economics instead. But I would not have had the same mental models. If I was stuck as an economist instead of an engineer/farmer I'm sure my mindset would have been much more rigid.

>>>>>
Bagus.nya our ivy.league.of.malaya

I am also a university of malaya graduate

Must be something in the water they serve in the canteen.

\{^___^}\. /{^___^}/

My quarterly report on PCHEM.
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/phillipinvesting/197011.jsp

when? today? I target 9.2 if we are looking at today?
When is your target date?

Excellent! I learned something new today. At least these are useful information, unlike boring one word answers.

There you have it! A perfect mathematical formula.

Woof!

>>>>>>>
Don't be so stupid Phillip.

I get your question, but like I said I don't really see the point. What would be the purpose to breakdown returns in such a way? I just simplify it by putting in the total amount of my entire period I put in, divided it out between the years and average it out.

If your goal is to say for example that TTB is smart in the beginning 2005 and dumb at the end of 2019, it doesn't work that way if its still all unrealized profits which can change in 2025 that makes him look like a genius if bursa market crashes and he is holding unto 250 million in cash earningg 3.5% that he can catch fish in a net with.

I always have discussions with my wife about the purpose of calculation versus the calculation method itself.

My wife is the actuarist in the family. If you want a mathematical model how to calculate that kind of CAGR you will need to ask her.

I would recommend putting it in the "why bother" pile, average it out and move in. It is called AVERAGE compounded growth for a reason. If you are looking for SPECIFIC compounded growth.... probably avr18 can give you a one word formula instead.

>>>>
Outliar My point being that nobody starts off with 100k in the 1st year and say ends up with 1m on the 10th year but never puts in any money between year 1 and year 10, what if he puts in 1k every month and 2k every month in the 2nd year and so on and so forth, how would one calculate CAGR?

Someone asked me question, I answered. Anything wrong?

Maybe you should stick to 1 word answers. You make more sense then.

>>>>>>>

antoniomc27 Philip, I learn a lot reading you and i3 forum in general.

In this case, and from my humble opinion, it is true that this kind of traditional brick-and-mortar or prone-to-digital-disruption businesses trade at depressed price for a reason. Time will tell if they are a good investment or not, but as Philippe says the potential for growth is severely capped.

I have a question for Philippe, though. For you, companies engaged on traditional businesses with low PE and which post slow but steady gains on top and bottom line, are worth investing in, or not? i am thinking of RCE capital, MBMR, BIMB or the likes. From your comments it looks like you would only consider high-growth stocks, but those can be found in a handful of sectors only.

ORLY.
bingo!
gem?lol!
SO SAD.


Maybe if I use one word answers I would learn more from this forum, eh troll?

Thanks.
Aiyo.
RIP.
Wow.

>>>>>>


arv18 Man, Phiilip, what is wrong with you dude.

Take your medication.

Please!

then what would you consider a good tool? the easiest clearest metric would be how much money you put in the beginning, and how much money you ended up with today. Why is this important? There is no quantifiable, verifiable way of knowing how well you will do in the future "stage" unless you have a time machine to go forward in time.

Investing is a continuous, more art than science.

I don't really believe in cherry picking and breaking down results unless you are looking at 1 month to 1 year metrics.

I mean, is getting 30% returns in 1 month really better than getting 10% results a year for 10 years? especially if that 30% returns get you bankrupt in year 7?

In the end it is a net positive effect on businesses in malaysia. With the new chemicals to be produced by end of this year onwards, many new industries will be viable and growable in johor and malaysia, producing many end products which we have traditionally had to import from other countries.

With availability of new forms of raw material for these industries, it will be able to produce at a cheaper rate and export within the local SEA region and beyond.

Which will then spur demand for more products from PIC and PCHEM.

Which will have a net long term effect and growth of the supporting industries.

Virtuous cycle indeed.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/cagr.asp

If you are just looking at nav, it went from 140 million to 498 million. Sounds good? If you average it out over 14 years since 2005 it is earning less than 10% per year. But you are a smallholder. So if you want to cash out today from ipo, you only get the share price increase ( no dividends, no nav) which for closed end funds is usually a discount to nav historically.

So as a smallholder you only get share price increase from rm1 to rm2.43.

For waiting 14 years.

You are getting like 6.8% compounded per year for holding on for 14 years.

Not exactly Warren buffet.

I don't want to waste time comparing with David Webb whose investment is based in Hong Kong in the 90s when hkse was full of lax oversight and regulatory problems. Different market. Different systems.

I ask soojinho who invested in Bursa Malaysia what his 10 year returns are with his cigar butt investing are.

Since you like this question so much,

What is your 10 year CAGR in bursa investing? Switching cheap ass stocks and all that.

Be honest.

I can smell bullshit a mile away.

Find me line in YOCB where I criticized someone for in investing in YOCB. Then I will give you 2 million shares in QL.

I have and will always only give my honest opinion in the long term prospects of the company itself. What I believe to be is long term competitive advantage, and where it is going in 10 years from now. You do with that what you will.

I don't bother insulting other investors or their investing acumen. I suggest you stop criticizing others as well.

I couldn't give a rat's ass about what you buy. I try to understand the business itself.

But let me ask you one simple economic question.

How deep is your understanding of YOCB? If I asked you to give me a logical, probable, possible futures 5-10 years from now where yocb will hit 1 billion in revenue and 100 million in earnings, how would it achieve that. And how far along your estimated growth plan is yocb performing so far.

That is a mental model that I use in preliminary evaluating any company.

Not switching and hoping and betting on luck.

You cherry pick this quarter when entire small cap index bounce and say yocb is the best? Sure.

If you want to cherry pick short term, why don't you study your opportunity costs? DAYANG and carimin blew you out of the water. Jaks blew you out of the water. Even my brother in law when he bought more pphb at 0.46 this quarter didn't do so bad. Even sapura blew you out of the water.

But are you looking at short term gains or long term performance? Yocb short term price swing is average. Long term price swing is average. Long term business performance is average.

Can make money? Sure.

But wouldn't you rather invest in your "moat" China company listed in Singapore with super clean and hyper efficient technology that is better than nuclear but has no international patents, no customers outside of China,no verifiable technology in Singapore, and obviously no one has heard of globally. That sounds like a sure win investment!

Wouldn't you rather "bet" on that kid?

Find out where I said the exact words that mine is the one and only true path. I will give you 2 million shares in TOPGLOV.

I never said that you will not succeed, as people who buy average companies for wonderful price definitely will succeed. It's called ben Graham net asset cigar butt investing.

What I believed Warren buffet was ( and I found out myself) if you are deploying big amounts of equity, you will not have oversized rates of return compared to buying wonderful companies at fair prices.

His words, not mine. Why you worship him and egg me? Go drop a letter to him la saying that his methods are trash.

And you yourself are a very clear example. You hold 1 quarter get 13% and you get the right to make fun of old uncles?

How MUCH money did you deploy? Are you going to hold it in YOCB for the next 5 years?

If you held a stock for 10 years with 27% average compounded growth ( and you topped up every quarter), then you come back and insult uncle ok la.

If you haven't been investing that long, well I recommend you to read more and insult less.

I promote PCHEM much less desperately than your desperation promotion of INSAS. Don't believe? Look at your promotion of INSAS in every page? But how much it goes up? Malu lo.

I don't have Facebook.

Ok lo. We assume oil price forever below usd40 and will never go up ever again.

With this example FPSO forever bad business

Nice article.

Best thing is it works.

I sat still in QL since 2009 and added my position every quarter for 10 years.

I still hold QL now.

Long live Mr partridge!

It went from 1.15 gearing level in 2015 to 0.47 gearing level in 2019, while increasing to 3.7 billion in net assets. All the while increasing dividends, earnings and revenue ( and 4+ billion in project wins). In what universe is this company going bankrupt? Are you retarded or did your dad drop you head as a child?

If you want to be stupid just go ahead, but no need to go above and beyond and join Chua soi lek in his insanity and blindness leh.

What's wrong with you 2 trolls. Really embarrassing.

Don't even refer to facts and figures just spout whatever bullshit.

EPF already selling down Nestlé. Dgsb doubled its share value by 100%!! Nice la!

You need serious help Stockraider. Maybe Herbert can give you some eggs?

Using this logic are you saying modec is a bad company? Murphy oil is a bad company? Schlumberger is a bad company? Just because sapura and bumi armada is lapsap?

Ok loh. Moving on. Ignoring attention whores.


>>>>>>>>
This FPSO industry business model no good loh.....!!

My advice is to teach your children how to find the right crowd to mix in wherever they go. Ask them to find the smartest person they can in the room smarter than they are, and stick to them like glue.

Expand their horizons, get them to learn basic medicine, basic engineering, basic economics, basic IT, basic music, basic carpentry.

Tell them to learn the big basic concepts of whatever it is they are learning, and how it relates to other things.

Tell them even though they are paying for a course they took, doesn't mean they can't jump into another room and learn what others are doing just to learn more and increase your overall understanding. No one will kick you out of the law or biology class if you have the spare time and there is an empty chair. Even if you are learning mechanical engineering or accounting. Trust me, in university the are a lot of empty classes, empty days, free hours everywhere. Fill them up by listening to something new everyday. Enjoy learning. Enjoy reading.

I did.

Tell them about mental models and how to build one. Tell them how everything is interrelated. Teach them to see reality better through a multidisciplinary lens. A better accountant is one who understands construction. A better surgeon is one who understands sports. A better politician is one who understands economics. A better engineer is one who understands business. A better lawyer is one who understands music.

A university that is open to giving freedom to students in learning as much as they can is one that is rich enough not to care. Smaller universities will not give you that opportunity as they will have multiple campuses spread around far apart. The bigger universities will have everything in one major campus. I recommend you send you children to those kind of universities. Me and my wife actually enjoyed just joining other classes just for fun, listening and learning new things for fun

That was how I met my wife actually. She is forever smarter than I am. I attended a class learning about actuarial mathematics( prediction of the future!) while learning engineering in UM. That was a fun experience.

I thought Stockraider very rich? Can throw 250k into INSAS but no money to give his kids a good education in England? You try to find a good job wth Petronas, Accenture, Shell, Big 4, albar & partners, HSBC, STANDARD chartered with your tar college degree?

At the very least get a UM degree like me la. If no money at least get some brains.

What is the percentage of towkays from tar college vs the percentage of towkays who studied in Oxford?

I'm sure the success rate will not surprise you.

In the long run paper qualifications do not count so much. But attitudes and aptitudes will always matter.

Trust me on this.

You stick around poor attitude people, your attitude will become so.
You stick with rich attitude people, and so will your attitude become.

If you have poor people mindset, dont't expect to learn differently from your crowd.

Same if you have rich people mindset, you will know they do things differently, think differently, act differently.

It doesn't matter where you go, so long as you learn life skills from people smarter than you.

You can learn rich people mindset, even among the poorest students in tar. You can get infected by poor people mindset, even in Oxford.

But rich people with the right mindset usually gather in the same place, same group, same like minded people.

That is where you want to be.

(Rich did not mean wealth. It's means attitude, aptitudes and a focus to life improvement.) Be rich up there. Money will usually follow.

EXECUTION OF CONTRACTS WITH FIRST EXPLORATION & PETROLEUM DEVELOPMENT COMPANY LIMITED (FIRST E&P):

Estimated aggregate contract value approx. USD 901.793M = RM 3.671b.

well done Stockraider.

Again you talk without thinking, same like nestle you say EPF selling when actually their shareholding increasing. I really lazy talk to you who don't know how to invest. But I repeat for the benefit for all.

Read the contract properly. Firstly they are redeploying FPSO Allan, which is already fully paid for in the ironclad contract that the charterer has signed to pay penalties equal to the ship loan refurbishment of they cancel early. So no added costs and loans required. Fyi Allan was in Gabon t line 10 years earning excellent charter rates.

Secondly look at the cost of refitting their FPSO for projects, it is the lowest in the market and always completed ahead of schedule. Thhe can't even complete simple projects on time and armada takes stupid deals in dangerous seas with poorly written contracts that cause them to be caught in very long term lawsuits that don't hold well in court.

YINSON only borrows money and refits ships only when they win a contract, not before. YINSON didn't do stupid things like sapura which uses oil barrel sales as their profit margin.

YINSON only does fixed charter rates. And o&m works on their own FPSO only on top of bareboat charter.

Best in class performance.

All I know is they bought it. It's under investment, it costs less than 5% of their quarterly revenue and it belongs to me ( the shareholder of YINSON).

I don't see any warrants or rights issues recently.
I don't see any huge director salaries.
I don't see any big borrowings that is not guaranteed by ironclad contracts.
I don't see any esos frivolously given.

Management is worth every single cents.

Because they want to raise cows?

Seriously how should I know? Is that even a pertinent question?
I would instead prefer to concentrate on pertinent questions like giving big esos yearly that benefits employees at the expense of shareholders directly ( not recorded a an expense in mfrs), or frivolous giving out of warrants that will have a direct impact on shareholders dilution of the business.

I would say that is more pertinent though.
>>>>
Philip, why Yinson invested in 6 units condo which is unrelated to their business (Annual Report 2018, pg 197)?

I apologise Mr Chua soi lek. Can I have some facts and figures on your NH liquid egg factory production and sales volume/ price guidance? What is layhong production costs for day old chickens, broilers and eggs as compared to QL, TEOSENG, CCK and other competitors? Why is layhong net margins for 2018 below 2% when QL enjoys 5+% , CCK is 3+% and TEOSENG
5+%? Fyi QL does 690 million in poultry revenue a quarter and still manages their business better than LAYHONG.

Basically if you know how much it costs for then to grow a chicken to sell ( knowing the costs of their animal feed, their culling costs, and production quality death rates when no antibiotics are applied) then you know if layhong is a viable business in the future.

FYI do remind the doctors never to give you add your kids any antibiotics when they get very ill and have to do surgery

I'm sure antibiotics are not good for health right?

And also vaccination. Don't get your kids vaccinated either. It has mercury as transportation vehicle in the jab. Very dangerous!

Fully agree with Chua soi lek. We should stop making fun of layhong and start buying the stock!

When it goes down to 0.25 per share...

But having said that James Ng is right, next quarter revenue and net earnings will be down unlike last quarter. This is because the management has already guided to a "soft" coming quarter as explained.

I will be using my dividends to buy on the dip.

As the dividend and profits are good enough for me since beginning of the year till now to hold and wait. So far I have earned rm1 per share+ 18 cents incoming dividend.

Not bad for a few months research and work.

he dropped his godly when speaking to the sifu? At least he knows how to be humble!

I am a plantation smallholder (with 40 acres shared amongst old friends), an M&E engineer, a technical manager, an MLM Diamond, an amateur stockpicker (with 20 years experience losing money for my father in law, wife and best friends), and avid reader of all sorts of books who doesn't have a single financial degree or CFA.

But I daresay I know a thing or three about investing in businesses listed on bursa.

I would say all knowledge is interrelated, and all knowledge is useful.

It depends on how you apply them in your mental model of understanding a business.

Is a CFA level 3 useful? sure. Does it make you a better investor in Bursa? Depends on how you use it.

Much appreciated! I hope that more and more investors will be attracted to this site in the future a well!

3iii, quick, make stockraider apologize again. EPF is buying big into NESTLE again.

Even KYY is unhappy that government is selling his dayang and carimin etc and buying NESTLE instead.

As they should. I want EPF to be stable, have growing dividends every year, no rocky share price, and give me money when I retire.

I dont want to retire in 5 years and find out EPF has lost me 64 billion ringgit... poof!

>>>>>

But put it this way, pls do not run the risk of extrapolating that epf is going to continue buy more nestle going fwd loh.......!!
EPF has increased the shareholding by 10.4% todate but share price had gone up by roughly 60% loh....!!
My school maths teacher always tell raider always beware of the mathematical imbalance loh....!!

That does not mean epf will not start disposing going fwd mah.....!!
In fact the latest announcement EPF reported on 12 OCT they are selling 6k units, and raider suspect more selling on the way with high valuation of NESTLE with PE above 50x, it is ripe time for epf profit taking loh....!!

So do becareful in chasing such a overvalue stock in the current challenging time loh....!!

To be honest, I have never bought "high growth stocks". When I bought QL in 2009, it wasn't exactly a high growth stock, I just followed and invested in it every quarter with what money I had, watching it grow.

Same thing with topglove, who would have predicted that it would be a high growth stock in 2010? I just found a stock in an industry that had room to grow (a big market "pie") and had found some competitive business advantages that was apparent and growing.

It is now my 6 year holding and buying into YINSON. Can anyone predict they would be the 6th biggest FPSO company in the world and overtaking ananda krishnans bumi armada? I knew they would do well, because they were a malaysian company that was competing out of malaysia, and the lowest cost producer in the fpso charter industry. but high growth?

PCHEM was a low PE stock (in its industry) that I think very well of.

HLIND is also another low PE stock, that has been having good growth.

Those are all in markets with room to grow in Malaysia.

RCECapital can only borrow to the best of the B40 crowd, therefore terminal growth and growing sloooooowly. If it goes beyond the 100 million a quarter, it will start to borrow to the not so good crowd,and you will start looking at NPL skyrocketing up. and looking at MBSB and competing with AEON credit I dont think it has the management talent to compete with them. It is the rich son of AMBANK boss at the helm, what can you expect?

MBMR is just a car dealership in a very oversupplied market with no differentiation, it has already hit terminal growth. It hasn't broken the 500 million a quarter mark since 2013, I dont expect it to grow much as its wheel manufacturing business is badly planned, badly organised, doing badly and last I heard it will sell it off to someone smarter. It has already shown a failure to diversify, I wouldn't be betting on its "bright" future anytime soon. Who buys daihatsu trucks anyway?

BIMB on the other hand I think would be a good choice, as its takaful business is doing well, the asset quality is better than most, and surprisingly it is becoming more convservative and careful on its loans, which is reflected in it growings earnings (but more importantly less riskier loans).

To be honest, all the stocks you listed I think will do average over time. It will perform meh. But I dont like the industry well enough or see it good enough that it will give you amazing results over 10 years.

Think about it from my perspective, if you want to invest in something risky like stocks, you need to compare your risk profile versus EPF (6.13% PA) and ASB (2018 = 7%). These are almost zero risk investments over its lifetime (over 20 years since ASB was launch in 90's), so your "low risk" stock ideas better average more than 10% per annum (including all costs, dividends etc) otherwise you are better off just saving your money in a fixed deposit yielding 4.25% and compounding the profits.

will YOCB give your that 10% capital gain a year including dividends when you calculate your risk in holding the stock for a long period of time?

I leave it up to you to decide.

I pity simple investors who think investing is easy and can broken down to 5 point question/single word answers.

>>>>>>

I have a question for Philippe, though. For you, companies engaged on traditional businesses with low PE and which post slow but steady gains on top and bottom line, are worth investing in, or not? i am thinking of RCE capital, MBMR, BIMB or the likes. From your comments it looks like you would only consider high-growth stocks, but those can be found in a handful of sectors only.

Waiting for that 0.6! In march 31st.

After that we wait for February 30th next year 2020 for layhong to get to rm1.50!!

Sailang!