Philip ( buy what you understand)

sleepywolf | Joined since 2017-11-22

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Stock

2019-02-27 06:27 | Report Abuse

This quarterly report is so horrible, more revenue stuck, even more losses stuck. Everywhere you go parkson is empty, with expensive products which no one buys, except my wife when she gets all those free discount vouchers and gift cards from the banks and gas companies.

In all honesty, why is ttb not cutting losses and just move on, even in the face of a totally changing business horizon.

It's like that child which still tries to hold on to JC Penney because of memories. Is it because of he realizes the losses the total nta and ICAP shareholdings will drop like a rock?

Ttb wants to emulate Warren and Charlie. Buy the problem is he fails to realize they keep improving themselves and their mental models keep changing over and over. Warren moved on from cigar butt margin of safety concepts to Charlie mungers fair price for wonderful companies concept long time ago. Then Warren can improve to change his mind on airline stocks by buying 2 airlines. Then in 2016 on he started going big in TECH stocks. And today in 2019, Berkshire actually goes and buys a Brazilian IPO. Incredible! You can reach the 2 old men new tricks. They keep refining themselves and their investment philosophy as time passes, because the economic landscape keeps on changing.

TTB on the other hand, stuck with old n Warren buffet version 1.0.

Never improve, never innovate, sticks to level 1 thinking.

At least he gets paid well for sitting on money.

Warren and Charlie both gets paid 100k a year.

I think there is much to be said about the bias of directors who need their yearly salary as a means of survival. Then his needs and directions no longer align with the shareholders at large. If you get paid millions to sit on your ass as apposed to shareholders who only rely on dividends and share price growth, it's pretty embarrassing.

Stock

2019-02-27 05:50 | Report Abuse

So much for Calvin tan prediction.

Stock

2019-02-26 15:02 | Report Abuse

PCHEM give dividend 18 cents.

Price jump from 8.15 to 9.38
5 billion revenue all time high.
Dividend all time high.

>>>>>
Aiyo...whole market red lah...QR session over liao...market took profit lah..see the QR results...so many red chilies...how can be good lah....lol...aiyoyo...kikiki

News & Blogs

2019-02-26 14:43 | Report Abuse

Answer: Warren buffet did NOT buy layhong. That I am sure of.

Stock

2019-02-26 11:34 | Report Abuse

Time to cut loss? Or hold? But the value is rm3.... Right??? Scratching head.

Stock

2019-02-26 11:27 | Report Abuse

Wah the coming sifu reports coming in fast and furious.

Remember who was first!

All bow and remember Calvin tan. A broken clock gets it right twice a day.

News & Blogs

2019-02-26 01:01 | Report Abuse

Btw I am interested in knowing what plp means. What does PLP stand for?

News & Blogs

2019-02-26 00:59 | Report Abuse

Sure thing. I have done gains of 50-100% back then in 90's as well. But let's not talk percentages, how much is the sums? Small sums? A few thousand? Tens of thousands? How long could you keep it up? 1 month? 1 year? Sooner or later those kind of investing method sure will come back to bite the ass... I know this from bitter experience.

In the end, you know how I made big money? 10 year holdings and every quarter top up like clockwork. In QL and topglove. Never sold a single share for 10 years. Then with PBB, then with YINSON, now with PCHEM. And the biggest earner do far, STNE ( NYSE). You know how many times I cut loss? Zero.

Trust me. Anyone who tells you they can average 10-20% in days, consistently for years, reinvesting larger and larger sums, compounding all retained gains for more than 10 years all by trading short term? I call bullshit.

I try to stay away from "those" kind of people.

It just can't be done. If you could compound 20% gains in days( or even months) in larger and larger amounts day after day, year after year. Warren Buffett will hire you as the new successor to Berkshire. No questions asked.

5-50k sure, can believe. You try investing 1-10 million. Can get 20% gains in days? Do the math. In 10 years, if you could compound your gains and get your 20% in days consistently for 6 months in a year, and do it without cut loss for 10 years, you would have turned 50,000 into around 100m... Yes doubling your equity position every year. Wow.

If so, I humbly ask you to show me your portfolio and 5 year annual statements, I will hand over my entire topglove portfolio to you to invest (2 million shares reinvested since 2009 till 2019 starting from rm500k) QL stock, STNE (500k units), PCHEM. l will give it all to you, you can name any profit margin you want. Escrow account. Losses I bear. Profits you earn. I take 10% per year.

Deal? Bernie Madoff also kalah to Malaysian maestro.

Stock

2019-02-25 23:54 | Report Abuse

You mean you are happy that layhong is doing 1.8%?

Layhong has 2,419 employees. It does 870 million in sales a year, and the last 4 quarters layhong managed to make a profit of rm2,700,000.00

That is how embarrassing it is.

While egg and poultry prices are at their best, and it is the year end celebrations where everyone is buying chicken and eggs for holidays, when teoseng and others are all doing well.

Layhong is a horribly managed company.

No wonder QL dumped it's 38.8% stake in layhong, in disgust.

This is a disgusting company.

Good luck to all those who bought. You may join Herbert Chua in his monopoly kingdom.

Stock

2019-02-25 22:42 | Report Abuse

Good job stockraider! This is where your future retirement fund is being put to work!

EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD 20-Feb-2019 Acquired 1,093,000
EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD 15-Feb-2019 Acquired 2,710,522
EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD 14-Feb-2019 Acquired 938,500
EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD 13-Feb-2019 Acquired 1,731,400
EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD 12-Feb-2019 Acquired 91,50
EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD 11-Feb-2019 Acquired 1,695,600
EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD 04-Feb-2019 Acquired 902,000
EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD 30-Jan-2019 Acquired 40,000
EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD 28-Jan-2019 Acquired 246,300
EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD 18-Jan-2019 Acquired 252,000
EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD 17-Jan-2019 Acquired 700,000
EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD 16-Jan-2019 Acquired 409,700
EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD 14-Jan-2019 Acquired 1,063,800
EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD 11-Jan-2019 Acquired 153,600
EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD 09-Jan-2019 Acquired 348,400
EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD 07-Jan-2019 Acquired 1,555
EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD 04-Jan-2019 Acquired 307,200
EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD 28-Dec-2018 Acquired 229,700

Thank God at least someone knows how to recognize good stocks.

Stock

2019-02-25 22:35 | Report Abuse

Every day caps lock, trying to convince who ah? Even stockraider don't want to invest in QL, he is forced to.

Why?

Answer: stockraider has to pay epf until retirement age.

So 30 years old kid still had to do forced mandatory contribution to epf.

What does epf buy? Not INSAS like he wants.

Epf buy QL resources berhad. Good choice stockraider, even though you have no choice but must invest in QL, you still did the right choice!

Otherwise where you get 6.15% dividend every year?

Stock

2019-02-25 19:30 | Report Abuse

opensys revenue and earnings almost identical 2017 and 2018, are you sure it is even growing? or already hit terminal growth stage...

Stock

2019-02-25 19:27 | Report Abuse

Good luck Herbert Chua, future billionaire!

News & Blogs

2019-02-25 19:27 | Report Abuse

I sold my daughter to Japan billionaire and bought...... QL instead.

Herbert Chua God be with you !

May your eggs rest in peace!

Stock

2019-02-25 19:14 | Report Abuse

Remember this?

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/philip5/191895.jsp

Am I the oracle of Kota Kinabalu now? I told you we are looking at profits of 18 million in 2018 year end. Turns out PPHB did 19 million instead.

Although I said opportunity cost of PCHEM is much better (all time high revenues and all time high dividends this quarter), PPHB also did well for itself.

All you need now is someone to step up, go to the AGM and request them to give out 1 cent dividend (of 2 million), and take less director fees (from 7 million to 5 million), then everyone will see the value of PPHB shine, from 103 million net worth to 200 million net worth.

Be a shareholder, treat yourself as a partner in the business working together with PPHB management to grow the business together. Tell them if they reward shareholders, you will be more than willing to buy into rights issue and warrants purchases to grow the business fully!

Good luck and god bless!

>>>>>
Let me throw you some figures.

Today if you buy pphb for 92 million, you get a clear view of profits of 18 million in 2018 year end.

Then you add growth trigger of 4 million per year from those 160 rooms and retail units and parking fees. You get 22 million.

Then you add the average growth rate of 2 million a year, and 1 million from their other income, you get 25 million.

If you get 25 million profit every year, and they start to do a dividend of 2-3 million to shareholders, you do the math?

Stock

2019-02-25 18:57 | Report Abuse

oh I just read on that one, I believe is just PCHEM management hedging and playing it safe, because of CNY period all plant shut down and thing slowing down in the next quarter. It is usual and can see from previous years.

Non-issue for long term investors. I don't invest based on quarter to quarter results anyway, I look at long term strength.

Apologies carry, if no one gets my joke, PCHEM is strong as ever. The dividend we will be looking at RM0.32 cents, up from 0.27 cents last year. Going up stronger than ever. Record high for dividend this quarter. I doubt you will see PCHEM below RM9 anytime soon.

Revenue is a record high also. 5 billion of revenue, that is almost 6 months of 2010 revenue. Impressive.

Long term hold, and wait till PIC comes out for the fireworks by end of the year.

Once I get my dividends of 18 cents, which will amound to almost 250K (before tax, admin fees, SST etc), you can guess where it is going.

Stock

2019-02-25 15:40 | Report Abuse

Hi Titus, can share where you got this info for next quarter? I want to read up on it.

>>>>
titus -
report a decent profit. Next Quarter will soften according to the prospect. I guess i will wait if there is any correction.
25/02/2019 14:29

Stock

2019-02-25 15:30 | Report Abuse

Hi carry no boost, share price will drop to rm3. Epf is going to sell all their share according to risktransforner. Get out now while you still can!

Stock

2019-02-25 15:03 | Report Abuse

18 cents dividend, all time high.

Stock

2019-02-25 15:01 | Report Abuse

5 billion revenue, all time record. Earnings, 1.3 billion.

And pic not even out yet. Any questions.

Stock

2019-02-25 12:45 | Report Abuse

Yeah, also the one at sepanggar after shangrila rasa ria. When we first started upgrade only 4 warehouse and processing chiller plants. Now got 12.

Real visible assets and full production for Marine resources. Even now not enough, expanding for bigger size in labuan.

300 million capex expansion every year, more than many company market cap.

News & Blogs

2019-02-25 12:26 | Report Abuse

First you say don't see rear view mirror. Then you say at 1996 dialog is good.

So is it reverse it forward, which is it?

Most importantly, in between the lean years and good years did Calvin buy?

Answer: No!

But now suddenly dig up shareholder purchases from 2015, when PANTECH did its worse and stock price tank.

But when stock price tank, did tan Ang ang but with his own hard earn money?

No, instead he take advantage of the company and do... ESOS. Why don't buy off the market at fair price? Why need to take advantage of shareholder and buy it cheap from company?

This is what Warren buffet had to say about companies like this, from their latest annual report.

" That brand of earnings is a far cry from that frequently touted by Wall Street bankers and corporate CEOs. Too often, their presentations feature “adjusted EBITDA,” a measure that redefines “earnings” to exclude a variety of all-too-real costs.

For example, managements sometimes assert that their company’s stock-based compensation shouldn’t be counted as an expense. (What else could it be – a gift from shareholders?) And restructuring expenses? Well, maybe last year’s exact rearrangement won’t recur. But restructurings of one sort or another are common in business – Berkshire has gone down that road dozens of times, and our shareholders have always borne the costs of doing so."

- Warren buffett

Do you count ESOS as a expense? Especially when they dilute company shares ( 1.3 million+ in this year alone) at 0.415 when it is worth 0.6 in the open market.

This is not reported as an expense in your earnings, but who pays for the difference? A gift from the shareholders like Calvin tan?

Thank you Calvin.

YOU ARE SO GENEROUS!

SO GENEROUS TO GIVE OUT FREE MONIES WHETHER FOR OVERPERFORMANCE OR UNDERPERFORMANCE.

News & Blogs

2019-02-25 11:45 | Report Abuse

So many unrelated causality it's not even funny. Calvin tan back to his old tricks again trying to get people to buy his promoted shares by biased views and no relation to financial results.

News & Blogs

2019-02-25 11:16 | Report Abuse

Untrue.

If they all need PANTECH, why is their net profit 7+% ? And their sales have barely grown over 5 year period?

In 2017 they did 615 million. This year this will do 600 million. In 2016 the do 480 million. 2015 they do 513 million. Sadly All at below 8% margins. And they give out 40% earnings as dividends.

How to grow retained earnings if every year make 40 million but I give out 17 million?

That does not sound like a wonderful hidden gem of a company.

That sounds like a average company that has share price of 0.70 in 2017, 0.63 cents in 2018, and 0.60 cents in 2019 reverting to mean.

Same thing that is happening in NAIM, azrb, carimin and hibiscus.

Average company at fair price in 2017.
Average company at wonderful prices in 2018.
Average company at average price in 2019.

Do you think average company can outperform?

Fat kid suddenly winning 100m school dash?

Good luck.

Stock

2019-02-25 09:46 | Report Abuse

What does chicken got problem mean? I just came back from tuaran site upgrading t&c recently. I don't see any chicken problem...

Can elaborate supersoya?

Stock

2019-02-25 09:36 | Report Abuse

Then like that... My TP today is rm9.3

Stock

2019-02-25 09:31 | Report Abuse

20 million revenue on 71k profit is good? Total for this financial 4q year is 80+ million revenue and negative 3 million in earnings.

Casino INVESTMENT= casino returns.

Stock

2019-02-25 09:27 | Report Abuse

How is that a good QR?

News & Blogs

2019-02-25 08:22 | Report Abuse

But to be honest Calvin why do you even bother buying PANTECH, just look at PCHEM instead.

Forget the share price, forget the extra zeros. Forget the market cap.

Study and understand the business first.

Pantech pays out 40% of Pat, pchem pays out 50%.

Pantech growth 5 years averaged out is shoddy. Only this financial year with pic construction Pantech making profit ( at low net margins around 7% due to competition).

PCHEM is growing hugely 5 years even without PIC. What happens to PCHEM when it does get completed? It has 25% net profit which is sustainable because of its production moat for many years since it's spin-off in 2010.

Ask yourself one simple question, who makes more money? Developer or sub-contractor? And after developer gets it's Jewel up and running with 30% increased capacity and new business units like isononanol processing plant ( first in South East Asia)? How big will the growth of the "developer" be?

This is what I mean between buying fair companies with wonderful prices and wonderful companies for fair prices.

And after all that is said and done? It is only selling for pe 14.

*Oops I'm sorry, ever since I bought my block the share price has jumped, it is now up from 67 billion to 72 billion, pe is 15. Still worth it.
That could buy you like 10 PANTECH with change for kopi tarik.

But add 3.3 mtpa ( million tons per annum) from it's current 10.8 mtpa production? That's an easy 30% guaranteed increase in production and thus earnings.

You want a Chun Chun call in O&G that can last 10 years unlike all your other stock calls? This is it.

Carimin has already fallen short.
Hibiscus is also falling short.
You bullish plays into DAYANG, NAIM, azrb etc etc will fall short in the next few quarters.

You want to practice true value investing? ( Tell me what investing is not based on future value versus today)


Buy wonderful companies at fair prices.

News & Blogs

2019-02-25 07:58 | Report Abuse

The q in Pantech management can only go so far. After pic is done, it's performance will only be on that level. If it was going to be successful, it would have diversified into the right industries and grown it's moat a long time ago. It's basically a company that fights only on price with no vertical integration or special innovation in it's horizon.

If course I may be totally wrong and Calvin may be totally right.

So I reserve the right to smirk art him 5 years from now, and I give him the opportunity to laugh at me if QL market cap drops to 500 million and Pantech goes up to 11 billion 5 years from now.

News & Blogs

2019-02-25 07:45 | Report Abuse

Your Pantech

Pantech Group Holdings Bhd is engaged in investment holding and provision of management services. The company has three operating segments: Trading; Manufacturing and Investment holding. It derives most of its revenues from the Trading segment. The Trading segment is engaged in trading, supply and stocking of high pressure seamless and specialized steel pipes, fittings, flanges, valves and other related products for use in the oil and gas. The Manufacturing segment is engaged in manufacturing and supply of butt-welded carbon steel fittings, stainless steel, and alloy pipes, fittings and related products, as well as milling, machining and welding of tube and pipe fitting. The Investment holding segment is engaged in investment holding, property investment and management service.

I lazy to show you Pantech financials, you can see how much of an "equivalent" it had grown since 2012 until today.

Phillips 66 also in 2012 you can compare.

Then you know what moats are.

Hidden gem? What is so hidden about Swarovski Stones? Nice sounding name?

News & Blogs

2019-02-25 07:39 | Report Abuse

Try starting your own chicken and egg farm and see? See how long you can last. Consolidation for this industry has been happening for a very long while. Only the smart and integrated survive. Those who have tried scratch their heads why the chickens sold is far cheaper than my costs of raising it.

>>>>

Forget about chicken & egg business with no moat or barrier to entry

News & Blogs

2019-02-25 07:35 | Report Abuse

I really don't know who is thinking rationally or just using level 1 thinking.


* Calvin, are you seriously comparing Phillips 66 as equivalent to pantech??

Phillips 66 (NYSE: PSX) is a diversified energy manufacturing and logistics company with a portfolio of businesses: Midstream, Chemicals, Refining, and Marketing and Specialties. Our Company processes,
transports, stores and markets fuels and products globally. Phillips 66 Partners (NYSE: PSXP), our master limited partnership, is integral to the portfolio. The 14,600 dedicated employees of Phillips 66
are executing the strategy that has guided the Company since its creation in 2012.

Financial highlights

($MM) 2017 2016 2015
Revenue $102,354 $84,279 $98,975
Net income 5,106 1,555 4,227
Cash from operations 3,648. 2,963 5,713
Capital expenditure. 1,832 2,844 5,764
Total assets* 54,371. 51,653. 48,580


It's like comparing your pastor John in Johor bahru to pope John Paul 2nd in Rome.

Totally different industries, totally different moats, totally different levels of competence.

News & Blogs

2019-02-25 07:24 | Report Abuse

Suddenly an expert. Have you compared results from teoseng, cck, and other poultry and lifestock suppliers? the egg and poultry price increase reports from the federation of lifestock Farmers Malaysia (flfam)?
Do you follow up the mpob listed process by region monthly? Lower prices yes, but due to a bumper crop regionally? Have you looked at the total production increase by QL this quarter?

Bosses panic selling? The selling by the "bosses" to fund their foundation charity giving you mean? They still have hundreds of millions of shares which is not going anywhere (70% ownership similar to Nestle) if it was a meaningful drop I would definitely be worried. A few million ringgit here and there is chump change and you get worried? If they didn't have faith in own company why would they buy back with their own cash? They could have easily done a treasury stock buy back and achieve a bigger net effect.

Pattern of what problem? Do you mean family Mart growing much much faster than expected and already hitting break even 2 years after starting up ( and 100 million in capex costs?) Did you buy the maxincome sdn bhd ctos ssm report ( only like rm 30 or so I believe) or their ccriss ( my wife helped me access from public bank side) to read something that is very very impressive ( so impressive I bought 50k shares@ 6.25 after Christmas bonus in 2018)

2 years increasing revenue 100 million from family Mart? That growth problem you mean?

I believe that the possibility ql going to become Malaysia agribehemoth after following it and investing more in it over 10 years far more likely over the long run than a crystal ball that says the quarter will be bad.

I should keep quiet and let more bad rumors about QL float about so I can buy more at lower prices...


>>>>>>>>

24/02/2019 16:17

supersaiyan3 Few more days for QL.....

I have said this quarter will be very bad for QL. Because chicken got problems and oil palm low price.

Bosses also panic sell last two months, but look at the pattern the problem must have been solved as they are buying back.

So, be cautious but don't get too emotional, you could get burned if you are not thinking rationally.

News & Blogs

2019-02-25 06:53 | Report Abuse

To be honest I think they priced it too low. If you used the mental model exclusivity and social proof, if you charge rm10 people will not come BECAUSE they assume the value of the event is just rm10, therefore not worth going for.

If they charged the event as rm1000(with a discount from rm5000), I believe many more people will come, because they will believe that they will be getting an education or service that is worth rm5000 for only rm1000.

And the hosts can up the quality and give an event with paying rm1000 for.

Its like attending your children concert, it if it's rm5 you probably won't go. Buy if it is rm100, you die die also must go.

News & Blogs

2019-02-25 06:47 | Report Abuse

Hi Herbert Chua, may I know what is the total production capacity of of the liquid egg plant in pasir gudang?

News & Blogs

2019-02-24 22:24 | Report Abuse

That is where you are oh so wrong.

I have bought cheap penny shares for many years during the 90's.

And if you think that 2 dollar gain from 20 dollars is harder to get than 2 cents from 20 cents, then you really have much to learn about buying stocks.

News & Blogs

2019-02-24 14:25 | Report Abuse

There is no such thing as big sums and small sums in investing. The risk is the same with either amount.

Buying a rm0.20 cent share is the same as buying a rm20 one.

If it drops by half you lose both ways.

I would argue due to the concept of compounding long term of gains, it is far more important to invest properly with small sums where you cannot afford mistakes or loss of capital, than it is to invest large sums where you would already have more than enough to live a comfortable life.

But to each his own.

Losing 200k when you can ill afford it is more difficult than losing 2 million when you have millions to spare.

I speak from bitter experience.

News & Blogs

2019-02-24 14:16 | Report Abuse

Also Marie kondo is now officially a cult, with her own tv show exclusively on Netflix.

News & Blogs

2019-02-24 14:15 | Report Abuse

Hi tanleechoo,

Surprisingly enough, I have also read these books. And they add on to my mental models in thinking about investing and it's prospects.

Remember everything is related.

>>>>
the art of thinking clearly n the life changing magic of tidying ..

News & Blogs

2019-02-24 12:06 | Report Abuse

Topglove is 25% of world glove market.

News & Blogs

2019-02-24 11:28 | Report Abuse

Just because you end up buying 5 stocks doesn't mean you don't research and read in the other 2000. Oversimplification is silly.

If you run on the assumption that you can only buy 20 stocks in your lifetime, you better make sure that your investment is rock solid.

But if you are right, and it is easier to be right if you stop buying everything and choose only the wonderful companies, you will be rewarded for more than you can believe.

Put it this way, when you were in school you had like 30-40 students in class. If you could bet on which students would do well in the next exam, would you bet on the top 5 students with the best results during the last exam? Those who were the hardest working and dedicated ones?

Or would you pick all the students to do well and diversify your risks?

Or would pick the top half of the students who did reasonably well with a margin of safety?

That is what Charlie is advocating and changed the mind of Warren buffet from pure margin of safety or buying fair companies at wonderful prices to buying wonderful companies at fair prices.

Yes wonderful companies are hard to come buy, no one day it is not.

But consider this, when you do find one, you can invest big capital into that one great idea ( all your money into that one top student who did well during the last exam), knowing the chances he will do well is much higher than sharing your betting money on the middle half ( fairly smart students who can do ok).

When you have 80-99% of a sure thing, you can afford to sailang and make big money at low risk. I'm not taking free hundred ringgit, I'm talking hundreds of thousands into millions of dollars.

When you are not so sure of your investment, you will never dare to put big sums of money into a stock idea.

Just think about it: if you were sure INSAS was a wonderful company, and it will definitely go to rm3(because you think fair value is rm3), why are you buying sapura and jcy and other companies with lower opportunities? Just put all of it into INSAS and get 500% gain( from 0.60 to rm3) over 2 years.

But because you are not sure what to value, and you don't know your stock well enough, you choose to "diversify". Into sapura, etc etc etc.

Charlie munger-" diversification is a protection against ignorance.

I fully agree.

News & Blogs

2019-02-24 10:09 | Report Abuse

Einstein said it best, "everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler."

Oversimplification = Disaster.

News & Blogs

2019-02-24 10:04 | Report Abuse

I believe the biggest lesson to learn in I3 is to remove yourself of basic prime concepts, and relearn and add on to your platform with updated concepts.

One bad mental model which I see on most stocks by so called analysts,

when a company is cash rich or has high NTA, the first instinct is = GOOD. SAFE COMPANY TO BUY.

I learned the hard way in 1997.

My advice is to update that mental model(2009 edition), when you approach a company with high NTA and cash rich, you first instinct should now be = BUT WHY?. That changes your prime concept into something that you will study further into instead of buy and forget.

News & Blogs

2019-02-24 09:54 | Report Abuse

Dear SSLee

I repeat an off repeated charlie munger and warren buffett maxim, which I recommend you reading more books ( on everything, biology, law, architecture, engineering, investing, biographies) on expanding your investing knowledge.

- "In investing, just as in baseball, to put runs on the scoreboard, one must watch the playing field, not the scoreboard."

What this means (a lesson to Calvin tan as well), if you look to the scoreboard only (share price), or the names of the players arrayed on the field, you will not have a satisfactory return long term.

you must know how the players coordinate with each other, what the injuries are on the opposition team, how tired your players are, how motivated and dedicated.

If you only know how to look at scoreboard, then you fall to the same problem all 1st level thinkers have.

another one of my mental models I use: Everyone has an angle.

Take a wary eye on the accounting reports ( they are simply processed information by the accountants based on data given by the business owners). It can be easily "cooked" to those that have a need to.

Instead, think of investing as an ecosystem, where everything is linked to each other.

when a company is cash rich, why? When a company has high net assets but inability to capitalize on them, why? When a company sells a good subsidiary to purchase nonperforming ones, why? Investing based on NTA and cash alone is similar to buying xinguan based on the assumption that they have 1 billion in cash, even as the revenues, earnings ,and industry performance is going the opposite way.

Everything is related to each other, you cannot just pick one detail out (NTA, cash holdings) and say this business will succeed. That is oversimplification doomed for failure. and stop looking at the share price alone. If a business succeeds, the share price will take care of itself.

"More commonly, the forces coming out of these one hundred (investing) models are conflicting to some extent. And you get huge, miserable tradeoffs. But if you can't think in terms of tradeoffs and recognize tradeoffs in what you're dealing with, you're a horse's patoot. You clearly are a danger to the rest of the people when serious thinking is being done. You have to recognize how these things combine. And you have to realize the truth of biologist Julian Huxley's idea that 'Life is just one damn relatedness after another.' So you must have the models, and you must see the relatedness and the effects from the relatedness." - charlie munger

News & Blogs

2019-02-24 07:32 | Report Abuse

That is definitely true, there is always a need for someone to make a choice and others to poke it down. And there is definitely emotion involved when one has long term success with an investing method but is met with ridicule by those with average results over time.

>>>>
Majority of investors are emotional.. once u have invested in that counter, u will defence it .. I have kept QL for the last 10 yrs n I have also kept Insas almost 10 years . We make our own decision.. good nite n all take a good rest .

News & Blogs

2019-02-24 07:23 | Report Abuse

Hi purebull,

That is the essence of true investing.

Investing is supposed to be boring, slow and watching paint dry.

The bigger the sums you invest, the less action you need to do, the more reading you need to have.

Action needs to be decisive, because majority of stocks will not give you good returns long term.

One of the mental models I use for stocks is the 80/20 rule. In business, 20% of the population control the other 80%. Therefore in this case, I operate on the assumption that 80% of the stocks in bursa are crap, and only 20% above average.

It makes it easy for me to just skip through a lot of financial report and start applying other mental models on the 20% to define my opportunity costs.

*****

I guess if we wanted more excitement I'd go to the casino instead.

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2019-02-23 21:02 | Report Abuse

I thought i3 was an investing forum? It is funny how word information gets passed around.

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2019-02-23 21:01 | Report Abuse

Sslee if you are not a keen reader or intent in widening your investing knowledge, why do you even bother buying stocks? It will lose you money in the long run if you have no idea what you are doing.

I would advise you to just put your money in the fixed deposit and pick a quiet temple somewhere you no longer need money.

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2019-02-23 20:58 | Report Abuse

No point asking who is proven, I have skin in the game, been a long term investor of QL since 2009. Every quarter I added in my salary and commission and bonus, for 40 quarters straight. I monitor my 5 stocks very very carefully.

CalvinT has zero skin in the game, he can afford to talk because he doesn't have a portfolio. He sells subscription and cheats new investors by acting as if he is a know it all. I keep only to my circle of competence.

He is the guy who told you about perisai, talam, binapuri, protasco, etc etc. He has 5% of his networth spread out over 50 stocks.

I would have a discussion, but his investing method is so archaic and simple and straightforward you really wonder how he really makes his money. Likely from property and just following his Johor sifu blindly like a parrot.

All I can say is if you take all of his stock picks and average it out, you would have negative return.

You just have to see in the long term, which stock has he ever picked that has grown shareholder value for 10 years running?

The guy who brings his friends to his abode in holland( drive)?

Or the guy who held since 2009 stocks in QL, Topglov, PBB (now PCHEM), YINSON? And moreover top up every quarter and didn't sell a single share?

It is obvious what Calvin is trying to do by comparing price action (only) of QL versus DIALOG. He spells it as dialogue, not knowing what dialog even stands for.

Do you think he bought a single share?