Thats why I say 1st level thinking always 1st level thinking. Ask yourself, how easy it is for dialog to expand to phillipines or indonesai or thailand or japan with its business model?

Then ask yourself if QL can do the same thing (yes it has regional replication up and running, which is why they sacrificing short term profit for long term gain). And most importantly, why is QL REVENUE and earnings is consistently growing year after year after year.

Then ask yourself why Dialog growth of revenue is stuttering up and down (and how much capex needed to grow, and how many storage tanks do we really need?
Why is Dialog revenue reducing, and can they keep up the earnings? financial accounting?

Is QL growth story ending? or just beginning to flex its muscles? (watch the long queues at family mart and the brand recognition and products you should know the answer)

How is Dialog trying to find its second wind with EPCC and upstream ventures? Will it end up successful or troublesome? why is their storage tank expansion slowing down? (QL already found its second wind with Marine, third wind with layered farming, fourth wind with plantation, fifth wind with family mart. all from a start as a feedstock company)

Dialog has more nasty surprises coming up with its EPCC division (which 1st level thinkers know nothing about).

You know nothing Jon Snow. And winter is coming.

You should stick to what you know calvin tan. Which is preaching the word of god. Because your investment track record is more luck than skill.

then I keep quiet lo, stockraider so pro he can say 4.75 to 9 cents for DGSB is 100% gain.

I stupid lo, dont know how to calculate 1+1 = 2.

forget the little hint like consolidation that I leave out for amateur stockraider to find, he still fall into trap. really 100% gain?

Spade is really spade, shows how deep you investing skill is.

I think enough la, had too much fun bullying "smart" investors like stockraider. time will tell.

dont forget ah, RM3 then sell ah?

I bow to leno logic. At least leno is gentleman and will study first without immediately calling everyone who don't agree stupid and idiot.

OK insas canteek.

I remember xinquan also had a wonderful balance sheet.

he doesn't even know what is consolidation means. Just spout and never check properly. Insas pay 4.75 cent, after 2:1 consolidation become 9.5. but share price drop to 9 cents. Smart insas. Buy loss making company. you think can get 100% gain?

Stockraider, investing not for you. You think you got 250K to play play with a stock? Better go back borrow more money from your dad la.

Malu apa bossku?

No need to bother explaining to a guy who doesn't know what a car is. His investing is fish deep. Until I brought it up, he doesn't even know INSAS has bought DGSB.

>>>>
Dgsb consolidation 2 to 1 . Where got 100% gained?

no one is laughing.

People are thinking carefully.

If a business is shrinking and not making money, the management has to keep trying new things to make things work. If it keeps on not working, you will have to sell shares to pay your dividends and grow the business.

If you buy multiple nonperforming business, the earnings and returns of which are negative, you business will suffer and get worse over time.

Only idiots and poor people think about share price all the time only.

Business results and management execution are of the utmost importance.

what is drive car fwd. stop and reverse?

office boy talk. good luck with your imaginary 250K, probably more like 2.5K sounds more like it with your investing personality.

Irrational, repetitive, stuck with using the same tools and concepts forever.

with your so called margin of safety: they had rights issue to dilute company shares in 2015 which they didn't even know how to fully utilize until 2017+. then they have esos to dilute company shares further. then they have warrants to dilute company shares even further. all to get RM137 million in cash.

Why? if you say they have so much assets and money, why need to do activities that destroy shareholder value?

Please wait until your share price goes to rm3 then you sell ya(hopefully in 2 years Jan 2021). those who only know how to drive a car fwd forever better than those who don't even know what a car is.

Good luck.

TA? downtrend, bearish harami. stochastics in short term is not good. Resistance is 0.80 is futile. Next resistance at 0.75.

Long term? shooting star definitely lo.

I love how technical analysis make me sound smarter than I really am.

especially if your insas is selling good performing inari to buy DGSB?


Good luck holding on to your 250K (if you even have them) for 2 years or more.

Don't sell early ya, got "potential value" of RM3 per share.

is a business a bungalow?

if the stupid wishes to make a analogy, how about a 3 million rented apartment in Malaysia, and a 10 million abandoned empty apartment here:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Varosha,_Famagusta

Yes, you could buy that apartment from the seller for 500 thousand (he will be more than willing to sell it to you), and it has a value of 10 million (if the turkish governemnt relents and reopens cyprus), but how long do you have to wait? or if it will even happen

Still don't understand how it works in the context of a business?

Surely you are not so stupid as to overpay for a business with underperforming assets?

yeah, what he said.

All I read was free money to invest at 2%.

Think about it, don't use small brains and say but dgsb is with 134 million, 20% for 12.83 million is good deal what.

Ask yourself why you would pay 20% for a company with 42 million nta, negative earnings and reducing revenue?

It's like describing a mini INSAS this dgsb, except worse.

FYI, if you are still wondering, this is what your INSAS CEO is doing with your money, buying a 20% share in this:

https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/stk/fin/0131.jsp

Business sense versus blind margin of safety? Good business? Imagine CEO selling 600+ million of inari shares to invest in 100 companies like this. Good luck. Bye bye good will.

If just investing buy companies with high nta low market cap was so easy, then everyone would be doing it. Just use klsescreener 5 minutes work. Office boy strategy. One simple indicator.

But it isn't that easy. You don't need much brains to invest, but you need a heavy dose of common sense.

After you read Warren's letter, you will start to think, do I want to buy INSAS for what it has done with inari IPO in 2011? Or what it is doing today and what it is trying to achieve in 5 years from now.

If investing is about the past, I would be the top20 shareholder in INSAS.

But investing is about investing in the future, and margin of safety does nothing to tell you about the future.

Warren's exact words:

"Too often CEOs seem blind to an elementary reality: The intrinsic value of the shares you give in an acquisition must not be greater than the intrinsic value of the business you receive."

You really need to ask yourself this simple question, INSAS is selling inari shares every quarter. For what purpose? What is it buying with the money? Is it a destruction of value or a creation of value?

If the CEO thinks selling inari shares is worth investing in companies like vigsys, sengenic, numoni and especially the new company acquisition, you have to value the growth of these two companies relatively.

" Insas Bhd has acquired a 19.91% stake in Diversified Gateway Solutions Bhd (DGSB) via direct business transaction from Omesti Bhd for RM12.83 million cash or 4.75 sen per DGSB share. "

If the answer is value destruction, then it doesn't matter how much the nta of INSAS is because the CEO will just gamble it all away.

That is the silliest thing I have ever heard.

At to rm3, earnings of 7 cents (4 last quarters), you will be paying for INSAS
1.7 billion ringgit.
PE of 42++
Earnings of 46 million., From a revenue of 240 million. ( In 2010 it had a revenue of 423 million, 60 million in net profit)

For a company of shrinking profits. Unsteady revenues, bad business investments.
I'm all for speculation, but paying for something with warrants overhang, preferred shares and so many hidden hooks.... I don't get it.

This is what happens when you take "margin of safety" in vacuum.

Instead, read this:

http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/SpecialLetters/WEB%20past%20present%20future%202014.pdf

Think grow rich.

Moving on.

>>
Why leh ?? This is bcos Insas got potential mah....the TP can be Rm 1.30....Rm 2.00....Rm 2.54 or even it is Rm 3.00 is not overvalue mah.....!!

That is the silliest thing I have ever heard.

At to rm3, earnings of 7 cents (4 last quarters), you will be paying for INSAS
1.7 billion ringgit.
PE of 42++
Earnings of 46 million., From a revenue of 240 million. ( In 2010 it had a revenue of 423 million, 60 million in net profit)

For a company of shrinking profits. Unsteady revenues, bad business investments.
I'm all for speculation, but paying for something with warrants overhang, preferred shares and so many hidden hooks.... I don't get it.

This is what happens when you take "margin of safety" in vacuum.

Instead, read this:

http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/SpecialLetters/WEB%20past%20present%20future%202014.pdf

Think grow rich.

Moving on.

>>
Why leh ?? This is bcos Insas got potential mah....the TP can be Rm 1.30....Rm 2.00....Rm 2.54 or even it is Rm 3.00 is not overvalue mah.....!!

That is the silliest thing I have ever heard.

At to rm3, earnings of 7 cents (4 last quarters), you will be paying for INSAS
1.7 billion ringgit.
PE of 42++
Earnings of 46 million., From a revenue of 240 million. ( In 2010 it had a revenue of 423 million, 60 million in net profit)

For a company of shrinking profits. Unsteady revenues, bad business investments.
I'm all for speculation, but paying for something with warrants overhang, preferred shares and so many hidden hooks.... I don't get it.

This is what happens when you take "margin of safety" in vacuum.

Instead, read this:

http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/SpecialLetters/WEB%20past%20present%20future%202014.pdf

Think grow rich.

Moving on.

>>
Why leh ?? This is bcos Insas got potential mah....the TP can be Rm 1.30....Rm 2.00....Rm 2.54 or even it is Rm 3.00 is not overvalue mah.....!!

Exactly, no problems. PPHB is a good long term stock with a growth trigger. Once the quay girl gets completed then you have a guaranteed revenue and earnings growth. Things will look out fine in the long run.

Yawn

My own experience in investing (and gambling) for 20+ years is realizing that when you value a stock, the best way is still to assume the share price not there.

When you stop seeing share price first, all you see is businesses. You start comparing which business works the best, who has the best profit margins, who has the competitive advantage, who has been growing for the longest period, and more importantly why are they growing. After you analyze the business itself on the strength of its business model, then when you decide this is the stock than I am going to buy,

Then you look at the price. If the price fits, then the stock will work out.

Then when the quarterly report comes out, forget about the share price and understand the business model itself again. Is it on track? Has it changed? Did something new happen? Then when you decide to buy mor(e or sell you position, then you look at the price.

That's how it finally clicked for me.

That's why I don't get ta or momentum investing at all. How does the study of price action in the past prepare you for future results? A stock can keep going down for a long time, longer than your margin call can bear before suddenly shooting up without warning. Or a stock can keep going up for a long time then suddenly drop like a rock.

And you don't even know why(except after it happened). Isn't that kind of investing stressful? Imagine trying to use ever larger sums of money to chase those gains.

Crazy.

If I had to invest 12 million that way, I think I would lose everything in 3 years.

After a certain amount, money becomes the scoreboard to keep track. To be honest depending on your lifestyle, 200k is more than enough. I survive in far below that.

Rick or not is simple matter of not having to cut loss or take profit too early for 10 years. I started with 200k, end up with reinvesting and retain earnings into QL for 10 years in one stock. Is that gambling? If you know what you are doing and you know what your stock is doing you are not gambling. You are investing.

I bought 1.4m shares in PCHEM, I made 1.2 million in a month in paper profit. Is that gambling? Not if you can see what the future will be. All I can say is the simple the business, the clearer the future. You buy or sell based on what the future business will bring. Not the sudden increase in share price.

I would instead say buying 0.25 of sapura the very definition of gambling. You don't see any earnings future to give it profit. The business it has is inherently loss making for the next few years because of the contracts it has. You KNOW that sapura will continue to lose money, but you still buy because you HOPE someone will pay more for it than you did.

That is the essential definition of gambling. Hope that things will work out, instead of rational judging of the most likely future possibility coming out.

I don't get how you can value the intrinsic value of PETRONM to be a feasible action.

Personally, I don't think the future of refining stocks like petronm, dagangan and hengyuan to be that good. They are probably going to scrap their plan of expanding operations with that 3.5 USD billion new refining plant because of low margins and unclear results in the future on demand.

For me, I see no pricing power, no demand choice, no clear business advantage between a petron gas station versus a Petronas or Shell. I am ambivalent about which station I choose, as the price are all the same and the locations are a matter of convenience.

For petron to increase the number of service stations in the future would be foolhardy wth the returns it gets in recovering returns. The capex requirement to increase production is huge and time consuming. The scheduled/statutory shut down is a drain on the total future value of the company.

There is just no point to buying a refining stock in the long run. So personally I don't see how you can look 10 years ahead and find any reason to own PETRONM Vs a Petronas or hengyuan or whatever.

Now if petronm has a patent or be technology that can process palm oil into high grade diesel fuel that others don't have then different story la.

As it is, what kind of growth trigger can one even find to put petronm in a competitive moat position vs its peers 5-10 years from now. Lower refining costs? More efficient production? Bigger sales network? Better customer loyalty and support?

I just don't see a future where petron will be the market leader locally. Why bet long term?

Why make things so difficult for yourself.

If you don't trust funny buy.

After buy and blame 80 year old man the only shameful one is yourself.

Somebody catching on.

TEOSENG results good.
CCK results good.
Layhong results good.
Poultry and feed stock companies report big profit.

End of the year holidays where everyone overbuy.

Rising price of eggs and poultry. High demand lower supply.

Moving on.

How often do you get to borrow 200 million USD and pay back 2%? The only risk is if you do too well and the share price goes up, then it turn into equity anyway. I like it, better than rights issue...

It's already fully taken up. Bookmaking was faster than you can say " Morgan Freeman!"

Ummmm I don't really see any problem, it is a 5 year bond wth 2% coupon, making at end of period 5 years, TOPGLOV has to pay back 9.04% of the loan. Not bad for 200 million USD bond.

The only problem I see is the exchangeable bond, if owners saw the profit they could dilute and sell the bonds for shares ( so it becomes company equity). That way topglove doesn't have to pay back any bond coupons or payments.

The only thing of note then is the conversion price, 20% of reference price, meaning they can only convert it at a cost of 6.204 per share. Ok what.

I'd take it, we get to clear the bond and the dilution is done with shareholders in mind.

Panic sellers indeed.

Ummmm I think somewhere you are wrong la 3iii. I'm sure if they have 680 million in cash and cash equivalents, if they take a short fix deposit or buy high grade sir term bond, at least got 3-4% may.

Fix deposit at 4% should at least get 24 million interest income.

I'm sure SSLee can explain what is going on...

Those who use only sort term share price chart comparison instead of long term business performance is just amateurish. It's like saying wow this month naim it's sure Chun Chun call business is the best o&g up up up. But not noticing how the business is losing market share and generating loss of equity over multiple years.

Short term price comparison is just... Stupid.

Long term business performance is better. Can you do that instead?

Level 2 day thinking. I thought you like Howard marks?

>>>
I shall post in reply in another write up comparing Ql chart to Dialogue price chart for all to study

I apologise. That was a little bit below the belt

However my remark remains true, if you are buying INARI, and everyone who likes the future of inari, then why is INSAS selling INARI? The best reason ( and I believe only) reason to sell a stock is if you find another one that is better than the one you currently own.

What is INSAS buying with proceeds of INARI sales?

If only I didn't hate flying to kl so much. I so miss the good old days of landing in subang airport and driving 5 minutes to the house. Klia is such a chore.

Anyone going? I wonder if got q&a session. Night be interesting to meet some of my idols and goreng them. Hahaha.

Yeah to be honest I find i3 small time investors to be very small minded. Kyy give you 30% gain, just shut up be happy and thank him for free advice.

Do you know how much those subscription sellers and trading sifus here are asking you to pay for your education even before making a single cent? If win it is because of them, if lose is your own fault. Those kind of sifus are a done in a dozen.

Yewyin33 at least it's a man with balls of pure adamantine. He buy and sell he show conviction. If earn everyone happy praise him. If lose you blame him? For what?

Actually qqq, Jon choivo not wrong leh. He hedged. He said either make a small lost or a small profit.

Either way he say he will take that queue at 5.4 from woolei.

Whether falling knife or shooting cannon tomorrow no one will know.

But probability states that if you didn't go on margin it should be ok la.

Oh wait, did Jonathan Choi portfolio invest on margin? Good luck! My advice, if you don't know what you are doing, don't take margin.

If you need a loan, I can take payment in kidneys.

Lucky this quarter also can chop off a finger from bleeding INARI and sell to buy food. At least still got 12 million in sold fingers in so called associate. Every year insas share in INARI dropping. Why abandon "good" company and "invest" in rubbish like that Mongolian guy doing his vigcash?

If INARI making money and got nice dividend, why need to chop off? Isn't INSAS making good income from it's other businesses? Why don't use free cash flow and earnings generated from other businesses to buy more stock in INARI? Buy over and become a full subsidiary la,

I forgot, INARI is no GEICO. INSAS is no Hathaway.
INSAS would rather invest millions in sengenics, numoni, fast fashion and other loss making companies than buy more shares in INARI, which is it's biggest winner.

It's like that rich son whose father owned shares in public bank. Every year Mr teh give his son dividends. What does he do with it? Buy Ferrari. Buy Lamborghini. Open a cyber cafe. Open a bubble tea house. Open a pub.

When the father cut him off and threw him out, he realize all his investments not making money. Soon sell Ferrari. Close cyber cafe. Close bubble tea house. Close the pub.

When he went back home to apologize to Dad and turn a new leaf. Found out the father had already gone to Holland.

The end.

Are you talking about Sendai? Or how an owner that awards a 500 million shipbuilding contract.... To himself. Those kind of companies?

This is a crap counter. The results this quarter is the same as the results last year quarter, and the previous year before that, and the previous year before that.

This is what we can in the industry hitting terminal value. Nothing to look forward to. All talk. No economic action.

With a name like SASBADI, would you even consider buying these educational products for your children?

When you have options like McGraw Hill, Pearson and Wiley's, why buy a no name brand for your children future?

The most important thing is education is not the quality of education, but the reputation of the education.

If SASBADI had a metric and supporters where 40% if it's readers end up in ivy league schools or get 10as versus comparable educational tools, then I'd believe in something.

If the peer group and writers if SASBADI are Oxford lecturers or novel laureates or some crap like that which increases the reputation of the group as a whole, then I'd believe in the future of it's imprint.

As it is, it's just another penguin books.

Remember them?

Moving on.

>>>
bowman If you are into this counter, look back three weeks. Grab every news item, listen to every broadcast. The reasons are there for the rise. One of which is its investment into educational products for pre-schools across the region, particularly Singapore. Go figure why now.

Calvin, can don't put dialog in the same breadth as ql, Nestle and Dutch lady? Your research is very flawed and connections very thin.

You don't even know what dialog does it what it's management classifications are.

Firstly, dialog is a pe35 company with terminal growth in deepwater terminals approaching. It is diversifying upstream and downstream into epcc( which is where companies like sumatec, sapura, bumi and carimin are ending up).

Dialog is in no way has any "moat". Moat of convenience, maybe.

Their major acquisitions making them money is for the supply base and storage tanks in tanjung langsat and PDT.

Do you think there is any special contract saying that we can only use the dialog storage tanks? Or any special license where we can only use dialog services?

Right now, dialog is used because other o&g epcc firms had one foot in the grave with contracts that dealt with shared barrel production revenue.

Back then we all laughed at dialog because they don't want to earn big money. They content to earn small change with just tank rental.

But now suddenly when oil prices go down you say dialog with it's conservative 10% earnings to be a wonderful company?

How about the fact that it is now pe35, with a business that will hit it's terminal growth soon. (How many new tanjung langsat can you find?). Or the fact that it has 3 billion in liabilities. And growing.

Moreover when you want to company with QL, Nestle, dlady etc you want to be comparing super stable companies with low chance of nasty surprises.

Do you think their downstream operations epcc and upstream will run into problem? Have you considered the incoming nasty surprise in epcc prin with the contract for

This is the part where I become the oracle of Kota Kinabalu.

KUALA LUMPUR (Reuters) - Malaysia’s AirAsia X Bhd recorded its third consecutive quarterly loss on Thursday, dragged down by an impairment provision while rising fuel costs also dented its performance in the October-December period.he airline’s average fuel price rose 29 percent from $69 to $89 per barrel during the period.

>>>>

hi felicity,thanks for catching my error. I meant to say it is 30%+, or (2,821,124) as per 2017 entire operating expenses costs, the biggest and most major expense in its operation (8.3 billion). And something that is totally uncontrollable and unproducable by air asia , as hedging on the jet fuel spot futures can only go so far.

Note that the net profit for Air Asia in 2017 is 1,571,374. a 15-20% swing in jet fuel prices can hit the bottomline of Air Asia very heavily. something that we smile when crude oil prices is low, but we will rue when we realize it will be difficult to pass the costs down easily.

There are two types of people who lose money. Those who don't know anything. And those who know everything.

Ok moving on.

Calvintaneng, any idea when you think insas will reach it's nta of 2.54? I'm sure if you pray hard enough Jesus will tell you. Or is HIS silence telling you.... Never?

LENO CAAANTEEEKKK!

It's a simple equation. INSAS is inari big shareholder with 19%, if it goes down, INSAS goes down.

When it comes out.

I expect the terminal value going forward will be 80-90 million every quarter going forward with low profit margins, 2-4 cents per share. 5 years from now, carimin will be just another handout company hoping for a slice of a very competitive pie with no competitive advantage versus all the other market players. Terminal value met.

Moving on.

Higher revenue means more billing, more maintenance and topside work done, completed and carried out. Lower earnings means it cost them more to get the same amount of work done (due to monsoon season). This is basic engineering costings.( I have experience working in multiple platforms before)

Now I realize kyy doesn't have a crystal ball. I start to smell bullshit.

How can he say less maintenance contract work done, unless CARIMIN has a special rule where they can bill performa invoice to Petronas first for upcoming work to be done?

Jon! Can you share your rm5000 appreciable report on your PETRONM and why it has a spectacular crash today? I'm really interested in learning why refining is not it's main money maker.

PETRONM just had its quarterly report out. Anyone else thinks hengyuan will suddenly outperform?

I think you got the not money maker part right.

>>>

Choivo Capital Oil price does not really matter for PetronM. Its not the main money maker.
13/02/2019 15:05

Choivo! Time to be like Jackie Chan and take a punch! Chill and watch movie with free popcorn!

Sheldon! Time to be like Stephen chow and catch some falling knives.

I've read all of it except for deep survival. Will try to pick it up.

Funnily enough, the best books that I thought were very important to investing was from Malcolm Gladwell.

I thought tipping point was the best ever in thinking about how to analyze growth and virality, social psychology, and why some ideas with and others flounder.

I use the concepts that when I build a mental model of how a business will work out over time.