If one got no business sense, can go buy s&p index. Outperform most fund managers.

Its not whether you got sense anot. But whether you know the limits of your ability.

If they react negatively for a stupid reason, good can buy more.

Thanks Mr Market.

Being able to identify whether something has low or high risk, requires some business sense. Or even common sense.

They are not mutually exclusive.

You seem to be mangling the logic to fit your principle.

Very interesting

Yawn,just hold. Don't really care. Should be quite a decent business.

If price stays this depressed till Dec, I know what I'll chose for 2019 competition lol.

If someone promises me low risk, high return, low volatility.

Yeah he's probably bullshitting.

If someone tells me, low risk, return somewhat higher than the risk taken due to the buying of 1 dollar for 50 cents, lack of volatility cannot be promised. Likely to be very bumpy results. But over a long period of time should edge up and be quite satisfactory.

I'll be inclined to listen for a few more minutes.

Qqq,

I can give you an arguement, I can't give you an understanding.

Volatility is not risk.

High risk high reward, and low risk low reward have the same expected value.

The goal is low risk, high reward.

I bought flbhd at rm1. Low risk, its now up to 1.4. High reward.

Volatility or a particularly maniacal Mr market is the friend of an investor.

Clarity in what sense?

Uncertainty is the friend of a long term stock buyer. One pays dearly for a cheery and certain consensus.

Elkdesa is priced as such because they are a hfinancial institution that does not leverage up.

http://klse.i3investor.com/m/blog/PilosopoCapital/142803.jsp

I wrote something on the valaution of financial institutions. Let me know what you think, especially if you think I'm wrong or missed out on something.

Haha, pity I only bought a little.

All my little buys are really shooting up. While my big buys only went up a bit.

Hahha

No idea. Beyond opening impairment hitting the retained earnings.

Its just a change in classification. Does not factor into my view of the economic reality of the Company.

For further reference, you can see Elk Desa. They applied this quarter. But given the likely variance they have in many factors relating to the loan books. Calculations may very well differ.

If you're a sucker for pain, go through the bank ones, head also pain.
===================================================================================================

Valuegrowth45 To Jon and all RCE investors here - what is your view on the impact of MFRS 9 to RCE Capital?
19/08/2018 13:48

Again, i would say Ooi Teik Bee is one of the best short to mid term traders in Bursa. Only one person i know has a better record than him.

He is definitely ethical, and much more than most.

But do not mistake him and his picks for an investor. Size your bets properly, don't go on margin, and don't put more than 20% of your total portfolio into his picks.

I'm assuming here that your portfolio is only a small portion of your networth.

Having said that, on Lionind, at this price, alot of the good news is priced in, and the expected value of this bet, is too hard to tell, and may very well not be positive.

That is me, i am a investor, not a trader. I don't look at chart or predict sentiment, so the range of my intrinsic value may very well be different from his.

Make up your own mind.

The thing about fantastic companies is,

If you look at TP's from every step of the way from years ago. It just looks so foolish.

When the company is fantastic, and you hold long enough, you get very interesting results.

Having said that, people had this mindset in 1999, and in the 1920 Nifty Fifties. And they will not just buy these companies (Many of whom were not that fantastic), but pay literally any prices. And we saw what happened, if they held till today, maybe different story. But they will need to sit through 70-80% portfolio decline lah.

As HM says, A bad company at a low enough price is a good investment. A good company at a high enough price, is a bad investment.

You are right.

That's why i said, the resilience of the earnings and the resilience of the growth.

Investing, when you consider the cashflow produced by the company over its lifetime, require you to look very far into its future, and to know it with certainty, is very very very very hard.

If you look at coca cola at 1930, 1988, you can see some of the incredible economic characteristics of the company. And try reading what wb wrote on this, quite insightful.

I have no comments on tencent or netflix, but i would like to getmyself in a position where if i see something similar in the future, i would have the thought process needed to identify this as a potentially fantastic investment, and put significant capital in.

But its really really really very very hard. When i read the old reports for Alibaba, Tencent and Netflix, i really dont know if i would have bought any. Maybe a small to mid position in the first 2, but Netflix, really no idea.

Fidelity did a research in their investment accounts, and what they found out, was that the accounts that performed best, were the ones where the investors forgotten they even had an account. This is fascinating to me.

As humans, we always think we can predict the short term future accurately, but it clearly is not so. And we have biases that make us remember the correct predictions and forget the wrong ones.

Imaging you bought PBBANK say 10- 20 years ago or even during IPO, they are so many times, when its above fair value, but it was worth it to hold, because of the
fantastic management and economics behind it.

Even Warren Buffet made so many mistakes when he bought capital cities, bought at 13, sold at 20. Rebuy at 43, sold at 73. Rebuy at 120, and buy alot more and hold before it was sold to Disney.

And he always made fund of how he was so foolish to even sell a single share.

Right now, as you are probably aware, malaysia market is very small, i can only find maybe 5 companies, with 2 or 3 at fair value or cheaper. Maybe its because i am deficient in my knowledge.

As an ikan bilis, i can put make these 2 companies 50% plus of portfolio. If i was an elephant, i will need a lot more of these fantastic companies. Tgat is very very hard.

And i have never said my way is the best, if you have the ability to predict quarters will very very high accuracy, and time the market and sentiments to a T. By all means do that.

But most people can't, and those that think they can are often lucky. I know i definitely can't.

I critique the other method a lot, but if you can show me intellectually how to predict quarters to a T, do a Expected Value calculation and size your bet using the Kelly Method with high accuracy, and have it in a way that is intellectually clear, instead of just gut feeling. By all means, i will change my mind and make money faster.

People's failure to defend their viewpoints intellectually, is their own admittance that they are either lucky, or they are too genius that they cannot explain.

But when it comes to the second, i read Warren Buffet letters from 1955 to 2018, and i see how this man turn USD19 per share to USD300k per share, every step of the way. He is really a genius, i don't know if i can ever reach his standard. Or even 50%.

At USD20mil portfolio, he already had the kind of thinking he has today, just more shallow (which is damn deep when compared to most). I don't see him talking about agility.

At the end of the day, you have to pick the investment method that works for you, some cannot concentrate because they have low tolerance for risk or are more conservative etc. Or some are too concentrated because they are greedy and not because they know the business that well (this is me). And its ok to just admit that.

But regardless of what method you choose, you must be very very intellectually honest with yourself.

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soojinhou But then, everything about paying a fair price hinges on growth rate isn't it? If I can accurately forecast growth rate precisely, I would be a trillionaire many times over, won't I? Tencent was considered an unstoppable force until just recently, so was Netflix. Hindsight is always 20/20, of course on hindsight Coca-cola justifies the price Buffett paid, but when he first purchased it, it's at best a calculated bet. Don't get me wrong, Buffett is the best for generating returns for managing humungous amount of capital. But why should ikan bilis like me aspire to be him, when I can use agility to my advantage to get higher returns than his? You problem, in my opinion, is your arrogance to think that you way is the only right way and everyone else is crap, and then start shitting on everyone else's method.
19/08/2018 11:46

No idea. I just try to improve my thinking, thought process, and thus investment picks.

Whatever returns come, i accept it.

No realistic track record for now. Because i've only been in market for a short time.

We will find out 5 - 10 years from now, if im just panlai at theory, or am actually a good investor i guess.

Yes raider, the thing is when you buy a very high quality business, the margin of safety in terms of price you need will be much lower.

Haha 3iii, i definitely spend alot more time looking for companies with very high quality, but sometimes, some companies are far too cheap, while having pretty decent management. Can buy abit.

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Alex™ Ur method is for 20% p.a?
19/08/2018 09:07


stockraider Yes correct...but both is not mutually exclusive loh....!!

Why can't u have the benefit of both ??

Business sense & quantitative with margin of safety leh ??


3iii I agree with all the points in the above article of Choivo. I have an added step, that is Quality FIRST, then Price.
19/08/2018 11:55

Being a very strong saver, i would rather other people spend.

Someone needs to support the economy. If everyone was like me, will turn into Japan and stagflation forever.

They support the economy and enjoy life more, while i get to buy more stocks that appreciate in value due to their support of the economy.



“The less you eat, drink, buy books, go to the theatre or to balls, or to the pub, and the less you think, love, theorize, sing, paint, fence, etc., the more you will be able to save and the greater will become your treasure which neither moth nor rust will corrupt—your capital. The less you are, the less you express your life, the more you have, the greater is your alienated life and the greater is the saving of your alienated being.”

― Karl Marx

If you put 1000 evenly in his picks, coupled with some discernment, i think you should come out on top.

When his picks work out, its a few hundred percent. Those drop, dont drop that much compared to the upside.

I have like 0.75% in talamt. its cheap!

But if you bet the farm on just one of calvin picks, you better be damn sure, or a liquidator.

Yeah, i wouldnt mind RCECAP going to something like 9 or 10 pe, so i can sell some for AEONCR. Haha

Take a look at ICBC, i think you will find it interesting.


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Fabien Extraordinaire in terms of prospect, i prefer aeoncredit

in terms of valuation, rcecap is cheaper

tough decisions...
14/08/2018 16:07

bought abit more. I like it.

I really dont know should buy anot.

So hard to answer, zzzz

Raider,

Here is good probabilities for you.

I give you a gun with 20 chambers, there is one bullet, and ask you to play russian roulette.

5% chance you will die, if you don't, you get RM100 million.

Very good EV. But with a very definite point of ruin. This is margin for you.

This is how smart and rich people die using margin.

No idea.

I only know it has good potential to be a strong consumer brand in frozen food space, pretty decent prospect for growth and profit. A potentially wonderful business.

And its selling at a pretty cheap price.

Try and buy ayamas processed food, then look for the nutriplus Japanese processed food. Compare price and taste and let me know. I don't have nutriplus at the supermarket near my area so I don't know.

I got the warrants as I expect low dividend for the next 2 years. And 100% retained earning is best for warrants, as your priced is fixed, while all the earnings retained will give additional return which increases the intrinsic value of the company, with zero effort on your part.

Its not a major position.


=============
Posted by Jhau65 > Aug 11, 2018 11:18 AM | Report Abuse

Jon, mind to share your TP for layhong?
Waiting for ur next article on Layhong.

My grandfather was an uneducated man. He used to trade rubber etc in negeri sembilan.

He used to say that the way to do business is to earn the money, and then reinvest. He could never really understand how some people just borrow so much to do business.

At one point, he owned a very large percent of rubber estates in bahau.

Before he lost a big part in the 1997 crash. He got caught up in his friends buying stock near the peak of the crash and started buying as well.

His son was a different kind of business man. He is a property developer who used a lot of debt.

That man now is quite rich, but for the last 30 years, he will always go ask his father for money, his siblings for money to pay bank, borrow money from friends etc. So many times, his cash flow made him close to bankruptcy. He even transferred all the land titles to family members in case he really bankrupt.

What for.

As you usual, your thinking betray you failure to look at probabilities.

For every successful business man, who used debt well, there is hundreds more who died because of debt.

But the one who go broke because of debt, they stay silent because its embarrassing. Those who were successful, well, they are very loud.



===≠=======================

Posted by stockraider > Aug 10, 2018 08:18 PM | Report Abuse

U try telling all the rich business man & tycoon, why they should not continue to borrow monies to expand, despite their business already making monies loh...!!

They will tell u , that u r a soochai, to give such a stupid advice loh....!!

Haha, im being sarcastic. I have some warrants here, bough at 320.

I like this company, and i think the debt might be distracting for some, which is a good thing.

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Posted by VenFx > Aug 11, 2018 01:06 AM | Report Abuse

Jon,
Try to see it from the other side.
It will give u a second think.
Any man artificially is temporally,
In LayHong FA is the area we should look at, again u may argue their debt and capex is too high ...
2 sides view will settle for the paradox

We have different definition of SMA.

Mine is Sohai Malaysian Asshat 50 days.

Because this particular forum is going to filled by those for the next 50 days. The ones who ask TP, what operator doing, and what type of chart did you pull from the place where the sun does not shine.


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Posted by newbie911 > Aug 10, 2018 08:18 PM | Report Abuse

Jon, 20d also havent break, u dreaming?

The sungai petani plant?

What is so good about it? This is a cost based industry, is EG one of the higher or highest value providers?

Im not too sure, my research isnt as deep. Do you mind elaborating? Im curious.


Posted by VenFx > Aug 11, 2018 12:53 AM | Report Abuse

Jon,
my answer is simple for EG
Its 2016 Capex of $57mil is ripe to deliver their ever best results by latest 1Q2019 ... TIME FOR EG TO SPEAK FOR ITSELF :)

Now downtrend. Soon to be death cross.

operator selling to push down price as he want to collect more.

Why not lol.

One Utama is not listed. I dont imagine the owners feel poor, or that they are worth less than sunway reit.


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Posted by Fabien Extraordinaire > Aug 10, 2018 08:28 PM | Report Abuse

i wonder would ppl invest in companies if there is no share price quoted, say for the next 5 years.

Irrelevant.

The person could be sohai.

I need to know why i should be collecting or buying. I cant really see a good reason.

If not for KYY, you die liao, stuck at RM10.

If that week something happen, you had to rush somewhere, the drop from RM20 to RM6, will margin call until you have to stay with your son and start working again.

Why risk that?

Yes if you're really good, conservatively using margin will 99% of the time make you richer. But there is the 1% chance you will die or really get fuck.

What for? If you're really good, you don't need margin to get rich.

Raider, if i give you a gun with 20 chambers, there is one bullet, and ask you to play russian roulette.

5% chance you will die, if you don't, you get RM100 million.

You will take that bet i think, even if you were in your twenties. I won't.

That's our difference.

Ven ah,

Why you like this company so much ah?

I study alot, but cant really see anything amazing about the economic characteristics and valuation of the company.

Break SMA 50 days.

Raider's argument,

If you are super investor, and very accurate market timer and sentiment reader and most importantly, guaranteed very lucky.

Should use margin.

Yeah lim wee chai, is a proxy and machai of Danny.

Share price is not their responsibility, one can argue that having a clear message and philosophy in order to have investors self select would be great, but that is a mere plus.

If price low, this is give you chance to buy. Cannot buy, too bad, go save money.

Dont want to buy, then what is it doing in your portfolio for?

Im fine with the management, Danny Tan was the only one i know, who in 2014, he stopped development of Condo's in Johor, and market was so hot then.

That is a kind of indication of ability.


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Posted by origins > Aug 2, 2018 09:38 PM | Report Abuse

Danny can only wiggle so much before breaching public spread. Dont know how long he can do this for. He really should focus on fundamentals and improving earnings previously. All these selling to proxies and getting tropicana to do share buy back is not going to improve share price. Range bound between RM 0.90 - RM 0.80 for the time being.

By this metric,

1) Raider thinks he is top 20% investor, except he pick hengyuan and evergreen in one year, both also die.

He was saved only because KYY go fry the stock last minute. Without KYY, he will be in holland with his RM10 cost second round, with the stock selling RM6.

Likely to be lose hundreds of thousands, not counting margin.

Assuming you really is 20%, maybe now its you need to be 1%.

2)Its like saying once you learn how to drive properly on race track, you should now take racing slicks to the road. Yeah, easy way to die early.

3)My friend started with margin, 10k to start, end of 5 month, negative 12k. We started the same time. I had essentially a one year had start because of that. I'm worth 3 times him.

But that is anecdotal, statistically, most investors lose money, leverage, helps even the good ones lose money. Not guaranteed, but on average, you have a higher probability.

4) Ok tbf, maybe one can consider say 25-50% margin. Lets say you hold 100k in stocks, you only buy 25-50k in margin.

But what if you get successful? Chances are you will go up higher and higher, before you die.

Its the good swimmers who drown.

Why stretch if you know you will be rich. There is small difference between being worth RM20mil and RM100mil.

but Being bankrupt and being worth RM20mil is very big.


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Raider urge u to use margin, got rational reasons mah....!!

1. 1st of all u need to be a good investor u need to be at least top 20% in terms of competency loh, but in order to that u must learn proper investment technique loh...!!
Don Listen to conservative misguided sifu who promote to u that investment can be successful but if u use margin u will fail loh..!!
That is not much different investing using cash or using margin loh..!!

2. After u learn the proper technique of investment, next u need to learn the specific technique of margin and risk management loh...!!
In all cases u need to clear the training under item 1 above loh...!!

3. If u r a young newbies....having limited capital...it is best u start with margin, if u cannot master the art not much disaster loh...bcos u can always start all over again loh...!
U must dare to Learn art of making monies, dare to win and dare to lose loh.....!!

4. If u r good, naturally u can amplify return with margin as its interest rate only 5% pa loh.....!!

“If you are going to be a very concentrated investor, you should not use leverage. You can’t leverage because you need to live through the downturns and that is incredibly important.”
Joel Greenblatt

“The trick of successful investors is to sell when they want to, not when they have to.”
Seth Klarmen

These two say it all for me.

Raider,

I can give you an argument or perspective, i cannot give you an understanding.

Lets leave it at that. You are old man, i hope you don't lose another bungalow or ever suffer the indignity of being forced to live in your children house.

Good luck.

Balance of probabilities.

According to the news, 10,000 chickens are in the farm, and in one KM radius, another farm with 18,000 chickens.

Layhong has a broiler farm in Tamparuli, that one has 180k chicken. Based on the amount, i'm guessing its not the farm.

They have 2 layer farms with total capacity of 390k eggs per day in tuaran and tamparuli. Chicken can lay 5 eggs a week. So roughly 278k chickens there. I'm guessing its not affected as well.

If it is, well, top up i guess.

Speculate a little. Haha

Given the debts, i doubt they will be giving out much dividend, which is good for the warrants. And 3 years is long enough to have the processed food division to properly take off.

Wait loh.

Bought some at 0.32.

I think this is as much as im willing to buy. The the probability of the long term prospects being positive is pretty high.

It is. Debt just becomes a massive problem when you can barely make a profit or enough cashflow to payback the interest and principal.

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Posted by Sapnewbie > Aug 7, 2018 10:23 AM | Report Abuse

I heard YTL also huge debts. Why not a problem there?

Looking at layhong.

I really no idea about lionind. I sold mine because prefer trop and osk.

Its cheapish maybe, but very hard for me to see. Buy other thing lah.

To beat you,need to go from win millions to only thousands.

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stockraider GENERAL READ DOMPEILEE BOASTING ON HUAN WITH GREAT AMUSING INTEREST LOH, NO DOUBT HE MAKE VERY GOOD PROFIT ON HUAN, BUT THE ABSOLUTE PROFIT, HE MAKE ACTUALLY APPEAR QUITE SMALL BASED ON GENERAL RAIDER STANDARD LOH.

I think i buy a bit support lah haha.

Should be ok.

Having said so much, yeah, this is the best pick for steel i think.

I just think as pretty much everyone here betting that this round quarter will be better on QOQ and YOY basis.

Its damn risky, and it has gone up already, how much left is there to price in.

Whats the expected value? I really don't know the answer.

I don't see why the integrity and ability of WC is in question here.

Is his integrity and ability dependent only on profit?

Put a top management in a rubbish industry, or an industry whose moat is destroyed, and they will look stupid.

Was the management of STAR genius last time, and stupid today? I dont think so. I think they were just normal people, who were in a a really good industry that turned into a really bad one.

WC last time everyday buy back parkson share because it was cheap. Very shareholder minded. His companies are all conservatively capitalized.

His reputation dont need any more building.

His only fault is not being a genius and getting out of certain industries early. Something anyone can fall for.

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Ooi Teik Bee Dear sherlock,
I agree with you. In actual fact, you are very good and sharp.

To be honest with you, earning and PER of Lionind is the best among 4 major steel stocks.
Most investors are not happy with the management of WC.

It takes time for WC to build his reputation.
Hope WC turns into a new leaf.
Thank you.
Ooi
04/08/2018 17:36

I wasn't aware that future eyes was doing charity.

So one should also commend bonescythe and pump and dump operations?

People write articles predicting quarters or sudden earnings, because they intend to take advantage of the price going up, and sell before the results come out.

You don't notice how result come out, it pops maybe 2-3% then goes down?

He post is definitely way above bonescythe etc, and he's likely to be more ethical than them.

But its not something worth commending as if he go to orphanage every weekend.

Imagine, he has RM250K in before he post the article, one post make him RM7.5k easy.

There is no such thing as a free lunch. If you are not paying for it, he ain't selling to you, you're the product!

If it was truly this amazing and this cheap. He will diam and just buy.

The only time people post is because

1) they are not sure and want feedback.
2) its so obvious anyone can see.
3) they want to sell to you (some do it in a far more unethical manner).

Next time when i buy car, i will commend my salesman for being good salesmen and manage to make me buy car and the upgrades summore.

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Posted by soojinhou > Aug 6, 2018 07:16 PM | Report Abuse

I do not belittle people for doing in-depth research, I do not belittle people for spending time writing up their work and sharing with public. We need good content in i3. Whether the forecast is correct or not is moot, whether the article leads people to riches or holland doesn't matter. I also don't patronize others claiming my method is superior and others are crap. Most of all, I appreciate good content. So thanks to FutureEye for excellent content. The whole article consists of extensive network of data points taken from numerous sources, it took the author tremendous effort to piece together the whole picture. For that, his effort should be commended, not belittled.

Whats the point of winning an argument.

You win or lose argument, does not mean your thesis is correct or wrong.

The goal is to find out what is right. And act accordingly.

You want to find the leng profit, need to go back almost 10 years. And you need to assume that all the factories in china won't reopen. You so sure boh?

China used to say they want to deleverage, barely 6 month later, when market slow down, they lower the capital requirements for banks in order to stimulate market.

They can turn around on policies.

I'm not saying he's analysis is wrong, he could very well predict next quarter. But this is a guy trying to jump over 7 foot pole. His margin of safety very low.

You see 2017 Q, everyone think sure super earning happen, show you a loss, why also you dunno.

I hope you guys make money, but i have no idea how to make this money.

In any event, people who write post predicting quarter result, rarely stick around to see it.

Learner,

Looking at how you talk, you will definitely need to be a learner king in order to achieve parity with others. Haha.

Cute lah you.

Try harder, maybe one day something will stick. :)

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Learner King bluebiznet i support what have u said about him! He is just a liar and con man. If others decide to give his hard earned money to this jon to invest remember don't come here and cry when u can't get back ur money anymore. Hahaha
06/08/2018 11:26

Also the 13.8m figure comes from the 2016 report, when i wrote that the 2017 one was not out.

In any event that is a pointless bit of data. The amount of stock coldeye bought does not change whether I consider it as a good or bad investment.

I don't care if he sells or buy really. Just what I think is correct or wrong based on the data and my analysis. He may have some additional information edge that I don't. We'll see.