I was the auditor for PJD when it was acquired and the former auditor for OSK. I know him very well.

I just don't care. in fact, i think don't him being in charge is a negative. I would prefer Warren Buffet, or Lim Wee Chai. But there are very few ceo's like that.

If the price stays down, i can just keep buying.

If the company is paying me 6.2% per year to wait, and there is no deterioration in fundamentals.

I can wait for 50 years. Not a problem.

Buyback or not, dont matter, ill be buying i think.

Just need to convince myself i should not load up more on rcecap.

My only points,

Id rather buy more plenitude, osk, orient etc. Just as cheap, except profitable and consistently giving dividends.

Dun care what OLH want to do, all i know is he is a pretty ok business manager, and the stock is damn cheap.

True. Only if unifi can really fulfill that 10x speed quickly. But not sure how they will do it though.

They have all the customers they need. Its the supply that's the problem, not demand.

Retail grew 85% YOY.

Just so everyone is clear,

Im willing to share about this company as the stock is really not cheap to begin with. Right now, it is at best, slightly below fair value. But its long term prospects and moat is fantastic.

Don't get what you mean.

Jibbie, small issue, ESOS basically

I must say, i wonder how the hell is TM going to meet its promise to 10X the speed without increasing the price.

If they could do it all the while, why didn't they do it before. What is the cost they are going to incur?

I wonder what TIMECOM's reply will be. I'm waiting for that one.

Let me say it again, clearly, TIME DOES NOT RENT ANY INFRA FROM TM. They have their own.

Re-gear it.

Lets say TM

ROE:11.32%

Equity/(Equity + Net Debt) ratio:
= 7,435.8/(7,435.8+6,587.1)
= 0.53

Re-geared ROE: 6%


TIMECOM

ROE: 8.13%

Equity/(Equity + Net Debt) ratio:
= 2,278,327/(2,278,327-74,465)
= 1.03

Re-geared ROE: 8.4%

Why would you pay this money for a invest coach?

Those who can't invest teach. And those who want to charge high prices, teach technical analysis.

Let me illustrate this post with a story.

A man piloting a hot-air balloon discovered he had travelled far off course.

He took the balloon down to a lower altitude, where he saw that he was above an office building. A man outside the building saw the balloonist and waved.

The balloonist shouted, “Excuse me, can you tell me where I am?”

The man yelled back, “You’re in a hot-air balloon, about 150 feet above the headquarters of this investment bank.”

The balloonist replied, “You must be a forecaster at the investment bank, then.”

Obviously surprised, the man said, “Yes, I am! How did you know that?”

“Well,” said the balloonist, “what you told me is technically correct, but it is of no use to anyone.”

This goes for technical analyst as well.

Time does not rent a fixed line, they built their own line.

The upgrades are a plan, and plans take time to execute. Timecom first spoke about doing high speed fibre on 2010. Only in 2013 did the core fibre backbone.

You want to 10x the speed? if TM could do it previously, they would have, but they couldn't.

Having said that TM, looks ok-ish given the fall in price..

Ecoworld has one of the best management around. No doubt about that. They should grow. But the runway is longer than most think.

In property development, the way to make money is to buy land from a long time ago, and when the land prices appreciate, you develope, making money on both the house and the land.

I don't think ecoworld really has that land earnings for now.

If you look at their roe for ecoworld. It's barely above fd. But over time, they should grow to be pretty good.

But still very attractive punt.

Its a one off.

If you think got value, just buy loh.

My cost is 9.3 haha.

I cant buy, as the size in my portfolio is quite large, and i think they are better investments around, but im keeping a very close eye

Why would its forward PER be much higher than 4?

Im thinking it might be lower actually. But irregardless, not need think so deep. Its cheap, management is good, and put their money where their mouth is.
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Posted by Fabien Extraordinaire > Jul 9, 2018 06:33 PM | Report Abuse

Market is forward pricing. It's forward P/E is definitely not 4x.

Definitely, I've only pulled the trigger for one.

Its far better to be humble and got for the low pe and low pb stocks. The probability of doing well over the long term is higher, as the chances of you losing money is lower.

And sometimes you eve get to buy these high performance stocks at very low prices!

Research and deep analysis is the cure to indecision. You will know whether to buy or not.

And for a high roe stock at higher than usual pe. Must really study a few times. Until you know the business so well, that a few bad quarters won't really affect you, and you can still keep buying.


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Unlevered Sometimes it’s really hard to pull the trigger on good companies with high pe. Anyways good article!
09/07/2018 22:41

He would likely suggest lpi and pbbank. Both of which are not that expensive, considering what you're getting.
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uptrending 3iii

Can you name a few companies listed in Bursa which fulfill the criteria you mentioned above?

Thanks.
09/07/2018 11:18

Look at how much debt TM is holding. and calculate out the normal ROE.

But, given how much it has dropped. Tm definitely does look good. But valuations is now merely at the same price as TIME, instead of being vastly more expensive.

And more than 50% of my investments are in what I consider to be fantastic companies. And decent to cheap prices.

I wonder if I should buy more, but the concentration is scaring me a little. I'm waiting for the annual reports to be out, so that I can study and make my decision then.

iii >>>However, i will still invest in Companies that are currently of pretty good value such as OSK, Orient, Plenitude, Gadang, Mahsing, Tropicana etc. <<<<


I don't think these are GREAT companies.
08/07/2018 18:11
=============≠==========================

I agree, but the price maketh the investment, and they are good companies are very cheap prices.

And you will not lose money over the long run investing in these. Which is the number one rule.

There is a very interesting extract from the 1986 berkshire letter that i think relates very well to this one.



"There is an investment postscript in our textile saga. Some investors weight book value heavily in their stock-buying decisions (as I, in my early years, did myself). And some economists and academicians believe replacement values are of considerable importance in calculating an appropriate price level for the stock market as a whole. Those of both persuasions would have received an education at the auction we held in early 1986 to dispose of our textile machinery.

The equipment sold (including some disposed of in the few months prior to the auction) took up about 750,000 square feet of factory space in New Bedford and was eminently usable. It originally cost us about $13 million, including $2 million spent in 1980-84, and had a current book value of $866,000 (after accelerated depreciation). Though no sane management would have made the investment, the equipment could have been replaced new for perhaps $30-$50 million.

Gross proceeds from our sale of this equipment came to $163,122. Allowing for necessary pre-and post-sale costs, our net was less than zero. Relatively modern looms that we bought for $5,000 apiece in 1981 found no takers at $50. We finally sold them for scrap at $26 each, a sum less than removal costs."

Haha I own a small 1.8% position in tambun. My perspective on the company is somewhat different, and I would likely explain them differently.

But itis a pretty decent pick. Good luck. Great management, good business.

OTB also,

Start joining the competition again. You say to everyone your 2017 result so high, but we only have your word for it.

The yearly investment challenge favors the short time frame picks anyway, and thus should favor you.

OTB, im not attacking you. I'm just saying out your method properly. Please read properly.

I wrote that both you and suntze goal in buying the share, is not to own a fractional interest in the company.

But with the perspective that the probability of the price going up is higher than not, and thus you are hoping to sell it to someone else.

You don't care what is it you buy, it just needs to fit your criteria of price going to go up due to surprise or sudden earnings, or TA.

That's why i say, you dont know the value of what you're buying.

If you really knew the value of masteel or hengyuan. You would have never cut loss as price dropped, but buy more and more. But you either didn't know, or you considered it rubbish.

Like i said, you a trader, a fantastic one. Problem is your subscribers think you are investor. And also think they are investors.



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Ans :
Please read it carefully who is his sifu.

Do not waste your time to attack me, I still do not need to change my method to select stock.

The last quarter result is very good, I project the following quarter result will be good or not. If I think it is good, I will still select the stock if TA is uptrending.
No change. I want to see quarter result not business sense, cow sense or F sense.
I can afford to lose.
I told my followers to do their homework, not follow me blindly.
I will never change my method until I lose a lot of money.

Small ciku, with no track record only haha.

Not a fan of ESOS. But as the company is majority owned by a private company, i dont think its the management trying to screw the shareholders, instead it is the company wanting to correctly incentivize the employees to be in line with the company. So its ok-ish.

My preference is always how berkshire did esos. Give the employee a zero interest loan to buy stocks of the company at market price. in their case, the employee take all the gain and loss.

I don't think need so extreme. Employee partake in 100% of the gain, and 50% of the loss. So just pay back in installments via direct salary deduction, with the last few installments being adjusted as per the market price (in the event the price goes down).

Really fast way to have your employees take an owner perspective.

Remember the last time you said the same for hengyuan probability? Or your memory too short.

This is true. OTB's research was done well for his purpose.

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Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > Jul 4, 2018 03:01 PM | Report Abuse

I do not think that I selected Lionind wrongly based on quarter result and net earning.
There is still strong growth in this stock.

To be fair to me, I do not know the buying of Megasteel assets without any insider information.

Blaming me to select this stock wrongly is not fair.
I also do my research, I talk facts and figures from Lionind financial report.

I cannot be right all the times, I expect to lose some.
I do not mind to lose some if I had done my homework thoroughly.

Thank you.
Ooi

The depreciation cost should reduce as the UEL is the same, you are correct on that.

JN88, qqq3.

Your analysis seems wholly based on the price movements and industry condition.

All round the world, tata steel etc also getting whacked last time.

I bet in 2007, people would be commenting, all the steel man sit together drink kopi. All the semiconductor man go fly kite.

Very interesting perspective. I definitely never really considered this way on in such detail.

My only point to raise, is that WC is may have personally guaranteed some of the loans for megasteel. Its quite common for such covenants to be in there is the company is making losses or negative equity, and want to take loan.

OTB sold d i think.

qqq3

don't work.....mainly because KLSE and Wall Street is very different.

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If it didnt work, neoh soon kean and cold eye by now should be bankrupt.

The only principles of those that work no matter which market, is value investing. In my side business also i do value investing, gambling online also use value investing.

How can buying RM1 for 50 cents not work.

suntze,

The price can go anywhere in the short term. The problem is, you do not know the real value of your investment, neither does OTB.

Both you are mainly hoping this number of a screen to someone else for a high price somewhere down the line, because you predict a higher price will come. Not so much because its of such good value, you wouldn't mind continue buying it if the price does not move, or buy more if the price go down.

You need to stop reading these malaysian sifu, most are rubbish (some with admittedly good results, we'll see. Your track record does not end until your death). You can consider starting with kcchongnz post if you'd like though. He refers to several really good writers and framework for thinking you can consider.

I've enclosed a list of books that you can buy or download, and upon finishing, you should have 85% of all the investment knowledge you need. The rest, comes from life experience and perspective, something you will learn over your life time of learning (which you can supercharge by reading)

Finish these:
1) Berkshire Hathaway Letters to Shareholders 1965 to 2018.
2) Margin of Safety - Seth Klarman
3) The most important thing illuminated - Howard Marks
4) Poor Charlie's Almanac - Charlie Munger
5) One up on wall street - Peter Lynch
6) The Art of Value Investing - Whitney Tilson
7) You Can Be a Stock Market Genius: Uncover the Secret Hiding Places of Stock Market Profits. - Joel Greenblatt
8) Seeking Wisdom: From Darwin to Munger - Peter Bevelin
9) A Few Lessons for Investors and Managers From Warren Buffett - Peter Bevelin

Additional reading:
1) A man for all markets - Ed Thorpe
2) Principles - Ray Dalio
3) Security Analysis - Benjamin Graham
4) Anything by Roger Lowenstein
5) Anything by Micheal Lewis
6) Everything by Peter Bevelin.






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Posted by suntze > Jul 4, 2018 01:03 PM | Report Abuse

I'm at loss now. I don't know should i be angry at my own stupidness. I was not doing well on my own. Therefore, I thought it is time to learn from others. I joined my sifu group early of the year. He recommended HY with all his analysis. Comb thru and sound reasonable. Bought it. Make some money but at the end loses it at end. Then same goes with masteel and now lionind. Is it just my back luck or the analysis given was flaw? I'm very frustrated with myself. I did not do well previously but now i'm doing much worse.

I look at liquidity as being dynamic.

When you want to sell in a bull market, alot of liquidity. When you want to buy in a bear market, also alot of liquidity. The problem is when you want to buy in bull and sell in bear.

My name is not warren buffet or even kyy. So building up a position or even selling a position is not a difficulty. Small ikan bilis only.

If i have say 30 million to invest, i can definitely see how some companies will take more time than others to build up a position. One of them is petronm. But im small ciku, 10 seconds can build up the position d.

I usually don't sell, and keep my money in the markets permanently, so i dont face your problem.

Last time 30 post a day in hengyuan, every day pat each other back with positive thesis and ling term view. Whole day Warren buffet name come out.

Now? Sell d. Not even one post there.

In 6 month, the business turn from gold to shit is it? Not much difference beyond the crack spread which fluctuates. And of course, the most important thing, price go down.

When price go up, sing positive thesis song, when price go down, sing negative thesis song.

I suggest you put your money in fd. You are definitely smart, but you seem better at rationalizing than being rational.

Go take the time to read the investment books properly, then come back.

Probability, lionind is not sucking your dick or cooking you dinner every night,looking up to you and say I love you, or keeping your bed warm.

If you're not logical and striving to be unemotional as possible in your investments, where else you want to be logical?

Be rational, not rationalising. Your thesis usually seem weird. Like always when stock price going up, psotive thesis, bad news when price up, long term thesis. When price still going down, negative thesis. When price jump back up again for abit, positive thesis.

Your thesis is influenced by the fundamental or the stock price movements?


Posted by probability > Jul 4, 2018 01:28 AM | Report Abuse

when people get married...if you ask them will they stay together till they die...they will say yes - definitely.

But its very common for the same person to ask for divorce just after a year...

The fact that William cheng sell to himself after megasteel has been going through restructuring since 2014.

Means he cannot find anyone who can pay a higher price, execept himself.

My guess, he might have personally guaranteed some of the later loans. Not unusual for loss making company.

In any event, probably a bad buy, but if the stock price drops low enough, might be a good investment.

You guys definitely got hit by abit of a black Swan event though. Hope no one out too much in.

The fact that one can get hit by news like this, makes me wonder if holding 22 to 28% in some stocks is a good idea.

When you bet a lot of money on something, and you are not that sure of its value.

You are going to be very incetivized to have me shut up and not alk down your stock.

If you actually knew the value of what you're buying, you would incentivize me to disrespect and talk down to you more, so that price drop and you can buy more.

I actually won't mind me some lionind at 50sen or less.

See you there, or are you going to sell and look for stock with "better future prospect" again, and when the price come back up to say 70 seen. Buy back in and say good long term stock.

Mogas 2020 turn to blast furnace 2020.

Otb, if price drop d below sma200 will you sell? Or is it a ms universe stock that you will not sell no matter what. :P

What did you notice? Care to elaborate? I'm curious.

Probability, you on crack ah?

China is not craving to build steel plants, they are craving to shut down steel plants. Which is partly why steel price higher now. You want wait for them reopen steel plant ah.

Bf major cost savings, you think only megasteel build? You think done in 3 months 3 you think steel import ban forever?

They build, other people also build. Their cost drop, other people also cost drop. They cut price steal customer, other people also cut price. In the end, all your saving pass to customer.

If megasteel asset so fantastic, why not just run the plant himself, make all the fantastic profit and pay back?

Tbf, if the replacement cost of a steel plant is higher than 683, and I mean I like 2 billion, I can see the reason.

But now whole world also got steel plant that is shut down and no one use.

For lionind to pay "fair" value is by definition unfair.

You know how valuer determine value of ppe anot? They check to new replacement cost, when second hand market is not available. Which this one definitely cannot get.

Then they say based on new replacement cost comparison, it's reasonable. Not taking into account, that people can use steel plants and still make losses.

There is a chance that megasteel plants may be a decent buy, and that they can make good profit for now.

But using their record high net profit now, still need at least 4 years to clear debt. You certain gov going to ban steel import for four more years?

It was a punt and you got fucked. No need to analyse like you going to hold for 5 year.

Even hy, say want to hold for long term also sell d. Only I still hold loh, say will hold, I will hold. If drop to 5 can consider.

"Focusing means u must be sure counter u choose to focus is solid, no speculative type of counters, no management problem or bad records."

Myeg, Ekovest. See what happen.

How do you mean have more ammo? you hold 10% in 10 stocks versus 33% in 3 stocks, eitherway no cash unless you hold cash no?

Im cash is generally very low. so can't "defend", just buy every month depending what cheap.



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Posted by hollandking > Jul 3, 2018 10:42 PM | Report Abuse

if whole market fall, no point diversifying, where u go, u kena hammer, on contrary, if u focus on a few or less, u have more ammo to defend your position. Opening so many positions means harder to defend unless u want to sell some of the positions and used them to defend the other positions. Focusing means u must be sure counter u choose to focus is solid, no speculative type of counters, no management problem or bad records.

Where is stockraider ah?

Junichiro,

What do you find interesting these days, id like to pick your brain a little.

Wow, a grizzled warrior here haha.

That was interesting. I'm not sure if you're lucky, or you have an edge.

My mom sold out before every single crisis. Because my dad always wanted to buy just before a crisis. Haha

Tbf, the house price probably dropped during the crisis, but you dont really feel it, since whole family living and using the house, and you dont have a screen and a figure showing you all the way.


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Posted by Junichiro > Jul 3, 2018 10:22 PM | Report Abuse

Hi Jon, enlightening reading yr post. Talking abt diversification, from my experience, it would do nothing to protect yr portfolio in a big downturn. In anticipation of a downturn, I just sold all my shares rather than sitting on paper losses.
I did it in 1997 on the start of Asian crisis and continues to do so. Nobody knew it would be that bad. After the Thai Bath was attacked, I sold all my shares considering KLSE is already toppish.
Then , on 2nd Sept 1998, I went into the market buying 50000 shares of only one company. I did not diversify. Some 3 months later, I made a big gain which was far more than I lost when I sold out at the start of the crisis.










If OTB, does the same returns without subscribers and in his own fund, i'll concede he definitely has alpha.

Now, i can argue the only reason his return so strong is not so much his thought process or picks. but his ability to rally people around his stocks.

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Posted by cheoky > Jul 3, 2018 10:33 PM | Report Abuse

otb isnt soros. otb thrive on subcription fee just like icap tan thrive on management fee. when tide come lift it same category as buffet and soros.