Posted by VenfxPandora18 > 2018-01-01 11:50 | Report Abuse

CHOIVO capital,

By reading your article, it is always a mind blogging.
The perspectives you have shared really btoaden my knowledge.

Posted by value88 > 2018-01-01 12:47 | Report Abuse

Great in-depth analysis ! Tq.

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-01-02 15:03 | Report Abuse

Haha, thank you. My returns however, should be far below yours this year. Still have alot to learn :)


VenfxPandora18 CHOIVO capital,

By reading your article, it is always a mind blogging.
The perspectives you have shared really btoaden my knowledge.
01/01/2018 11:50

Posted by VenFx > 2018-01-06 12:07 | Report Abuse

Maybe I'm just got luck in 2017...
Hope luck continue stick with me in Dog year18 :)

Posted by jibbie > 2018-07-16 15:54 | Report Abuse

jon, is there a way to calculate the "corrected" ROE if the borrowings are high eg if i want to compare the ROE for TM and Time.

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-07-17 18:01 | Report Abuse

Re-gear it.

Lets say TM

ROE:11.32%

Equity/(Equity + Net Debt) ratio:
= 7,435.8/(7,435.8+6,587.1)
= 0.53

Re-geared ROE: 6%


TIMECOM

ROE: 8.13%

Equity/(Equity + Net Debt) ratio:
= 2,278,327/(2,278,327-74,465)
= 1.03

Re-geared ROE: 8.4%

Posted by jibbie > 2018-07-18 18:01 | Report Abuse

tq jon for the explanation. learn things when i read your blog. do keep writing. I hope to improve my stock picking skills by learning here

Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > 2019-02-09 08:24 | Report Abuse

I think one big question you need to ask is:


Is time cheap fibre selling cost versus tmnet fibre selling an issue of the legacy rates of tm wanting to earn more or is it some technology that only time has that allows it to sell at much lower prices?

If it is not, and a price war begins ( remember the old days of Digi versus maxis commercials),

but this time between fibre operators
Gigabroadband
Maxis fibre internet
Tm unifi
time fibre

And you add in 5g/6g incoming from cell operators (which no one ever saw coming 10 years ago)
Digi
Celcom
Maxis

Then you add in the alternative internet suppliers who are coming out with more offerings and better technology ( never expected 10 years ago either)
Measat

The race for cheap internet will become far more integrated, more low prices and commodities and the company with the lowest "internet" costs will succeed in the long term.

Who it is? No one knows. What I do know is South Korea charges 44000 won or rm159 for 1 gigabit (1000 MB) broadband speed access(via multiple methods). Who in Malaysia has the capex and the capability to undergo big investments like this in the future?

That is who I feel will be the winner in the future.

Posted by Alex™ > 2019-02-09 09:07 | Report Abuse

Itu US telecom is the market leader. If leader huat, this will huat also.

Posted by godhand > 2019-02-09 11:10 | Report Abuse

actually your table is quite outdated. its actually up to 1gbps which is 10 times faster than unifi catching up to global leader xfinity which sells their service up to 2gbps. Theres a fine line between moat and niche and i dont think timecom have a moat even with the advantages it have among its peers here. In few years time, i see that its not an issue for timecom to take away consumers from tm due to the obvious difference starting from the whole klang valley using timecom.
however this kind of business can it be replicated? fibre optic business i cannot be certain.

Although it is undisputed that timecom is uncontested for now. and i dont really like u use the word cheap and moat together.

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-02-09 11:36 | Report Abuse

Thanks for the questions. I don't mind answering this one because it is not as wonderful an opportunity as my other buys, and I'm not topping up.

Phillip,

Yes. Because they have end to end fibre network. It's not a compeititon, everyone else either piggybacks TM network one way or another, or they buy wholesale from Time.

Better offerings? Well 5G maybe. But I wrote on that earlier. And even if people actually go crazy and put a 5g antenna at every building in kl to give that speed. You still need an underlying fibre network for those antennas and I think time can provide it. They just won a certification, MEF3.0. Which certifies that their packet loss and latency is low enough to support 5g. Only telco in msia to get that so far.

I don't think time will ever be the biggest broadband provider. But they can expand as much as they want. Net cash, no 99% dividend payout policy.

Pricewar? Time will eat the compeitition. Everyone but time piggybacks off tm. That's their cost base. And TM have so many legacy cost that cannot be easily removed.


Godhand,

I wrote this article sometime in early 2017. Didnt post it till end of 2017. The table is outdated, but I believe if you are to update it, time is still ahead. The rest of the article, I believe the essence is still relevant.

I think the fact tbey are pure fibre that is directly linked to global undersea cables. That is a moat. No other in msia is. And if you want to build this network, its extremely expensive, it takes time, and you have timecom there already, completely changing your economics.

Either way, my average cost is still from more than 1 year ago. 9.4. Business have far improved and price is far lower. The only reason I'm. Not topping up is, there is a business, not as wonderful, but far far cheaper.

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-02-09 13:28 | Report Abuse

I have my doubts about 5G ever being able to replace fibre.

Having said that, I am aware of my limitations when it comes to technical knowledge, and that I am likely biased towards information that do not speak well of 5G.

Still,at this price, I like it. Those buying now, in lieu of the 15% drop from my cost as well as the 25% inprov d earnings from when I bought it.

Will likely be getting something like a 25-35% discount. When I bought it from was close to 27pe. Now its 18. Some are forex do note. Not that much, but still go study on your own.

Take what you may.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-12-23 10:27 | Report Abuse

Instead of being a pipe dream,5G has arrived

How now ?

========

Fast, Unlimited and Stable wireless internet at a great price.

The real risk to TIMECOM is that people may decide to only go with one internet connection and in this case wireless is better as it is more convenient.

The problem is that given the growth in usage of data, especially if Malaysians start streaming, wireless spectrums just can’t support that kind of usage unless 5G is used.

However, Malaysia have not even implemented 4.5G, and right now 5G is still a pipe dream even for the developed countries, where even the current standards of definitions of 5G is still under debate.

In addition, there is the technological aspect, 5G spectrums is generally very short range and requires a direct contact tower to tower with no obstructions from trees buildings etc. This would require an incredibly large amount of towers.

In addition, these towers still need to be connected to a fibre network. If 5G were to actually take off, it would require a much denser fibre optic network, and this, would be in more ways than one, very beneficial to TIME’s wholesale division.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-12-23 10:29 | Report Abuse

5G doesn’t mean short range

There are two types : mm wave and sub 6 GHz

Sub 6 G Hz is Long range (mm wave is short range)

Malaysia is mostly sub 6 G Hz

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2020-01-03 13:58 | Report Abuse

Yeap, they are selling the spectrums. And doing this when 4G is not even fully implemented.

IN any event, 5G requires Fibre backhauls, and even in korea, where wireless speeds are so fast, most people still have fibre fixed lines.

This is one im fine with now.