Haha....so smart people value investors got stuck with discounts together. Not so smart value investors will soar like dragon and phoenix , without having to worry about discounts or being accused as Brutus plotting to shut the fund😅😂😏

Just wondering why no iCap sucker. Pay premium la, not discount. Hopefully, Ini kali lah. Pay TTB premium.

Dunno which one will be another Hong Seng. From RM .03 to 2.5, 8,322% gains, then crashed down to .03 again, 99% gone. If you try to issue warning when share price gone up from 0.03 to 0.5, people will think you are sour grape. If you issue warning again at 1, people think you must be red eyes. If you tried again to issue warning again at 2, people think you study so high, know nothing about share investment, keep your bloody mouth shut 😅

Haha...I just saw 1 very interesting name Xidelang Holdings, YTD gain 40%....This is a Chinese Shoe maker...I thought this SOB already died and berried in level 18 hell and for no reason it was resurrected....😅

Well, Uncle Lim is crying...😭😭....Genting business was very badly hit cox all the customers gone to Bursa Malaysia

This week the Edge Weekly highlighted many counters with high turnover with loss making but generated impressive return just within 1 week....I just published top 10 with the price changed added by me comparing last trading day of 2023...29 Dec and last closing yesterday 5 Jan 2024.

Counter- Price 29-Dec-- 5-Jan-- % gain--- Share turnover %---YTD Average daily vol(mil)---PE
MMAG-- 0.095--- 0.14 --47%----26%---- 63.70--- Loss making
Fast Energy Holdings--- 0.13---0.145---12%--23%---49.50--Loss making
Green Ocean Corp---0.225--- 0.235---- 4%--20%---36.80-- Loss making
Ho Wah Genting----0.24---0.27---- 13%---17%--- 7.00--Loss making
Sarawak Cable---0.375---0.425---- 13%---16%---61.60--- Loss making
Edaran---- 0.87----1.36---- 56%---14%----8.10----- 24.5
Pasukkas Group---- 0.155---- 0.175---13%---16%--- 25.50---- Loss making
Asdison---0.105----0.125---- 19%----13%---55.90--- Loss making
Minetech Resources---- 0.145--- 0.215--- 48%---12%--- 172.90--- Loss making
DGB Asia---0.155---0.15----3%----10%---172.90----Loss making

Simple average return is 22%/week beating WB and the fund manager flat.

Chinese New Year rally is ON!

Some many fireworks .... still doing 2024 count down? 😂😂

Everytime you air different opinions, he Macai will invite you to his den in AGM or EGM.....

There was 60% of 140 mln voting right casted yesterday. 51 mln for, 33 mln against, he got 18 mln more votes.

Forget it la....the fund manager will not listen one la...he got strong followers will back him all the time. Just like AGM or EGM....yesterday voting results on DRIP, he won hands down

These are great questions. They are trying -- not sure will succeed or not -- monetized AA brand. It will be 1 time massive gain about RM 5 bln in P&L if they succeed. Malaysia apa pun bolih?

CapA has been operating on taxi renting model😂😂 but during Covid, they rented but parked at home while the rental was still running. They wanted to renegotiated for debt forgiveness 🙈 - if I die you die. They also suffered a lot of high costs when they restarted these grounded taxis.

About 2 weeks ago, the fund manager published CapA company analysis in his newsletter. One of them " 9M2023 cash generation however remains robust, with 9M2023 operating cash flow at more than RM 1.7 bln."

CapA is for sure is a gamble not a case for value investing. Cap A fundamentals has changed drastically, for those anchored on previous price high, it is not the fundamental that will back it up to the previous highs but it is the sentiment that will drive it up. The shareholders will risk massive dilutions when they fund it with equity.

Just a quick comment on the current liabilities on MYR 15 bln - of that 5 bln related to lease liabilities and 2 bln sales in advance(customer is lending to Cap A for free 😂😂) and another 1.7 billion on aircraft maintenance...in the worse case they still Tai Chi and nego for re-payment again.....But the trade and other payables 4.2 bln certainly needs to be paid else all his suppliers will stop delivery. Nett of receivables of 1 bln + 0.5 bln cash, memang x cukup. Certainly they will need to raise cash la.....first target I think 5 bln kot via SPA. Target by April 2024 per iCap newsletter analysis.

Below EBITDA - yes still have to pay for finance costs on the lese liabilities and borrowing -- so nett cash increase will not be a lot. No matter how we sliced and diced it, the best case is no bleeding but certainly need to raise more cash to meet the operating cash flow.

Full disclosure: I have neither long nor short on Cap A for now and for the future. These posts merely to point out what the fund manager had invested on behalf of the shareholders. Can win big by gambling but also can lose big when putting the chips on the wrong side.

Recently Capital A requested for extension from 31/12/2023 to 30/6/2023 to submit its regularisation plan.....The fund manager always claims about low risk, high return.....I beg to differ on this one....he committed almost 7% of fund in Capital A. It is certainly a high risk, high return bet it can exit PN 17. It's a bet on sentiment turnaround with a big gap up!

Stock: [ICAP]: ICAPITAL.BIZ BHD

1 month ago | Report Abuse

For iCAP die hard fan....in the future, you monitor yourself on what your fund manager have bought for you the combo meals on CAPA
Counter ************************************************ Qty********Cost*****Cost per share*****Price 31/10/2023*** Fair Value
Capital A Berhad - Ordinary shares******CAPITAL-A****29,282,200**24,811,409** 0.85***0.84*** 24,597,048
Capital A Berhad - Redeemable Convertible Unsecured Islamic Debt Securities
******************************************CAPITALA-LA**9,760,733**7,320,550*** 0.75*** 0.87*** 8,491,838
Capital A Berhad - Warrants**
*****************************************CAPITALA-WA***4,880,366*****0**********0******0.375*** 1,830,137
Total cost 32,131,959 Fair Value 34,919,023
Gain 2,787,064
Gain % 8.7%

Chap sang!

--------------------------

Capital A has many issues but the crux of the issue is it has negative equity. In a situation of negative equity, a company certainly cannot declare dividend and even raise concern of going concern. Hence they need to fix this first.

How big is this hole? It's about RM $ 17.3 billion, as of 30/9/2023, Capital A is still making losses about 468 million...if it keep making losses, this hole will get bigger.

However, on EBITDA basis, it made close to about $ 400 million ++/quarter or about 1.7 billion/year. This may still be able to keep them afloat but the PN17 overhang will be there.

Capital A proposed to raise about USD 1 billion + cash via SPA of a company listed in Nasdaq GMFI. They will form CAPI and combine with GMFI. CAPI will acquire 100% equity interest in Air Asia and has the right to collect royalty and responsible for the brand management. Also 100% equity interest in Fleet Consolidated Pte Ltd for the procurement and delivery of planned fleet.

They also considering equity raising exercise Philippines AirAsia and Indonesia AirAsia....

In a similar situation with AirAsia X, they had almost RM 35 billion accumulated losses and a big bulk of it was due to provision of termination claim. They did a few things. They have successfully renegotiated with creditors and at same time raised some funds. AirAsia X subsequently were profitable since Q3/2022. They undergone the capital reduction exercise. All these were the catalyst of them successful exited PN 17 and share price jumped almost 300%++ from 0.70 to as high as 2.4.

Some people wanting to bet the similar thing from 0.8++ to RM 2++, 300% profit. The key word is BET -- gamble that EBITDA will carry them through with the sufficient cash flow and be able to raise enough equity or debt, capital reduction exercise to wipe out the accumulated losses to be lifted from PN17.

NAV increases ---> All wins.

Cash dividend --> Reduces NAV, Fund Manager Losses.

Minority shareholders that don't have voting rights concern, no need to worry about dilutions for not participating in DRIP.

You control your destiny when you have cash in hand - buy more iCap when the price is lower(assuming you are still his fan-se) or invest in other shares.

Systematic way of cashing out iCAP, assuming the fund manager can grow NAV over a long if you have been thinking exiting but got stuck.

DRIP --> NAV stays the same, Fund Manager charge as % to NAV wins.

Shareholders that love the fund manager think they may continue to stay invested on dollar averaging basis.

Let the fund manager retained the cash and compound it, assuming he still has the Midas touch.

If you a big enough shareholder, gain more control over time at the expense of those do not participate in DRIP.

Tomorrow is the voting time - For or Against - DRIP. The outcome is pretty predictable - with still many old faithful, you will expect DRIP to be approved. It's a non-event.

Merry Christmas.....

Ranting here also can train our brains by sparing with the fund manager with the constant "supervision". 😎

I am kind of confused what is iCap....started with marketing of 15% CAGR return fund, then 10%, then the most innovative dividend fund and now izzit is also an ESG fund?

Peace on earth.......I shall show restraint.

Additional information: Timing - they expect to implement this by Q1 '24.

This exercise will cost shareholders RM 0.8 million - approximately 0.2% to NAV RM 3.50/share.

Para 4.4 "Save for the estimated expenses of approximately RM0.8 million to be incurred in relation to
the Proposed DRP". All these are for legal, paperwork, Aussie Prof consulting fees? Perhaps there are more coming? Don't know -🤷- better to be transparent and don't surprise shareholders or buried it under a small footnote in the future.

The language is again confusing and not direct. If you expect to incur 0.80 m, say it. Or it is an accrual instead of saying "save for" if the whole exercise is eventually not to be implemented due to various reasons.

All these are for informational purpose and certainly do not want to be blamed for opposing to the program.....as long as they return part of the cash to shareholders instead of get locked in the discounts between share price and NAV, it is a welcome initiative.

They did cause a lot of confusion with their language and did not provide price & volume when they keep mentioning about Volume wrighted average market price. However based on the illustration of fixing price 2.5819 in para 4.1, illustrative dividend of 0.096, non drip holder with 10,000 shares will get 960 cash, drip holder will get 372 shares(960/2.5819), exdividend price will be 2.604. drip holder will worth 27,009.

None Drip holder will also have 27,000=10,000*2.604+960 cash dividend.

It appears that is no discount based on the illustration though discount were mention.

Anyhow perhaps still can sign up drip and see what happens. After all we can always sell those shares but some brokerage fees will be involved. Or may be clarify in EGM.

scolding, scolding and finally iCAP announced they will convene an EGM to get shareholders to approve DRIP on 29 Dec 2023....don't think anyone will oppose, just a formality.

iCAP will stick to it's gun that those participate in DRIP may get a discount. Any shrewd shareholder will first sign on to the program, when receive the additional shares, sell it in the open market, can get more cash.

Using below illustration, if you don't participate in DRIP, you get 1,000 cash dividend
Qty of shares 10,000
Price 2.7
Dividend 0.1
Cash Dividend 1,000

If you participate in DRIP you get to buy 411.52 shares with $1,000 at 10% discount to 2.70 (in actual iCap will use average 5 trading days price)
QTY @ 10% discount 411.52
Ex-dividend 2.6
Sell 411.62 shares from DRIP $1,069.96

Additional dividend of 7% or 70 Ringgit more compare to cash dividend.

With people selling/cashing out, will this widen the discount or narrowing the discount to NAV?

After quiet for 3 weeks, no matter how quiet are his critics, JohnDough is going to continue to post angkat bakul article. So sad!

Just a couple of quick happenings update - COL tested the water by buying some small amount of shares. iCAP reaction was pending court case outcome, all shareholders can participate in DRIP. Still talking about DRIP tinge with no concrete outcome on dividend implementation date.

My condolences to all long time shareholders 😓

So dropping earnings, dilutive ROE, increased borrowing, increased working capital, declining dividend got people so upset. Those without any position is not affected buy those bought at higher price suddenly suffered capital loss with lesser dividend 🤕😫

The trouble begin when they injected HR Owen UK into Sports Toto, built RM100 million showroom, increased borrowing to stock up super cars by up to 500 mln. So it changed completely on the Sports Toto that we know in the past 30+ years. It was started I think around 1985. In the past it was like 3 billion revenue and now with the supercar car dealer another 3 billion but only earning 2%, this surely will dilute ROE. One way to look at it is building the second earning engine, hence they need to retain more of its earning. The past dividend easily 0.20/share paying out all from the earnings but now 0.09/share on 0.16 on EPS.

My apology... Missed out the earnings.. Earnings just improved followed by 80% payout... But of course if earnings can go up a lot more, even at 60% payout, share price will move upwardly.. Paiseh.. Hopefully didn't disgrace your sifu yeah🙏🙏🙏

Back to Sports Toto, if we want to see RM 2 again, Sports Toto needs to go back to 80% payout ratio or at least RM 0.13-0.15/share. This is based on logic of M & M theorem that I have just learnt.

Since iCAP representative Patient Investor said I no longer need the minimum 1 share, even with ZERO share, I still can rant here.🙌

BTW, sorry that I am very lazy to go to other counters. Generally, I will talk all things about "value investing" in this channel. So it is going to be rojak and will contaminate this blog as it will no longer purely on iCap

@RealValueInvestor - well said. 👍✌

My condolences though, you have earned a doggy badge and will be treated as public #1 enemy.

I just gave a suggestion to those dividend yield seeker to look into Sports Toto as the market was smart enough to figure out that the moustache man dragged a cash cow into HR Owen, a supercar dealer, that drained the cash. As a result, the dividend payout ratio from the past 80-100% to only about 60%. ROE from 80-100% to 50-60% and now 20%. HR Owen only a 2% margin business......Obviously the market got upset by repricing the risk, price has been adjusted down to the same past yields. The fundamental of the business has changed but yield has not changed....remains at 6%.

Then I get blasted with the long message.....thinking I am talking down iCAP again.

Dividend? Better to bet on the moustache man Sports Toto lo.....shares fallen to 10 years low from $4+(Year 2013) to $ 1.50 now, whopping 64% drop with 6% dividend yield. Management is very busy doing SBB 😂😂

"bu zhi tau" cox FM like buat x tau

Just a quick one on iCAP 2022 vs 2023. You may need to refer to Annual Report 2023 page 42.

Investment 2023 RM 328 mln vs 2022 283 mln + 45 mln + 16%

But don't be too happy about it because he reduce cash from 164(2022) to 148 mln(2023) - 16 mln

His rough investment increase was only +29 mln or 10%.....

Because of him sitting on 37% cash in 2022, he could only translate roughly about 6+% to overall NAV.

If someone who will never fully invested, say only 70% in investment and 30% cash, he needs 22% on his 70% investment to achieve 15%. To do 22% invested stocks, he will be a true WB.

Next , please refer to page 54 and 55 on his stars and dogs. Portfolio increase roughly + 89 mln

Major stars
Padini + 58 mln
Sam Engineering + 49 mln
Kelington +24 mln

These 3 contributed to unrealized profits of 131 mln.

His dogs
Parkson -20 mln
APM -8 mln
BioAlpha -8 mln

These 3 unrealized losses of -36 mln

Plus realized losses on Boustaed -17 mln, this give total losses of -53 mln

The rest of stocks in the portfolio + or - , just marginal gains la...

His winning/losing rate is about 60/40%

If the FM is still dreaming of achieving 15% CAGR since its inception, based on his conservative of 70% invested, he needs roughly about 31% CAGR on his invested portfolio for the next 18 years. Based on 60/40 win/loss rate, I wish him all the best.

@JunHohohoho - In general you can check in the 2023 Annual Report but after the annual report was issued, we are not sure whether the fund manager sold or buy any stocks. Usually if a fund manager is having extremely low turnover portfolio, you can use his annual report as a guide. You should be able to figure out his quantity and value and substitute with the most recent price if you like to see how close to the reported NAV. In general, when we buy a fund, we will do hands off approach. The logic is the fund manager is better than us, other wise it is pretty dummy of us pay the FM the fees and we do the works.

That was what the FM did, assuming in 2014 the FM was unable to read the tea leaves well, stayed with cash 50-60% since then. Different investors will have different choice in responding to this scenario.

Investor A. She got the message, fund manager was either bearish or unclear of the future and started to liquidate the position at 10,000 shares @ 2.30, keep in FD for 10 years @ 3% --> become 30,910, bought back at $2(40% discounts) = 15,955 shares and valued at last price of 2.69 = 42,919. Gains = 87%

Investor B. Hold it long for the past 10 years growing old together, pledge his loyalty with the FM enjoying his wisdom speeches in AGM, scolding the gweilo, dogs, cats and wreckers year after year. Gains = 17% (2.69-2.3)/2.3*100%.

Return difference between investor A & B = 70%

What was your response?

Not sure how the FM got into thinking the injunction filed by Pop Investments got help by a group of local running stealth dogs. If any, these dogs must be pretty amazing, they read laws that even professional lawyers taken their inputs seriously. The best thing, the judge agreed with them allowing the injunction.

Don't play, play. 😎

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
By allowing the last minute injunction against iCap, the court appears to be aiding and abetting the foreigners, but to protest this will be in contempt, so just blame the foreigners for disrupting their well planned scheme to deprive some shareholders of the rightful votes at the AGM as provided for in the constitution.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Also on dividend irrelevance explanation:
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/dividendirrelevance.asp

☝for the benefits of others who want to know more as you often heard about this M&M theorem. It's one of the finance backbone we use it so often and taken it for granted.

More technical explanations on M&M theory can be found at Investopedia:

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/modigliani-millertheorem.asp#:~:text=The%20Modigliani%2DMiller%20theorem%20(M%26M)%20states%20that%20the%20market,independent%20of%20its%20capital%20structure.

@dumbMoney - Prof Miller as I looked up for his M&M theorem and try to understand it & say it in my own words will be something like this, first bring in the bacon...if you got plenty of bacons(earnings, 15% CAGR NAV, etc) you don't have to worry about how to slice and dice it(aka why worry about dividend, need cash sell some bacons), the market will be smart enough to recognize the size your bacons you brought in by giving you due valuation. The trouble is the FM stopped bringing in bacons since 2014, so smart Alecs would start to sell their holdings and keep it in FD earning interest minus the management fees, that how gotten such a deep irrational discounts as much as 40%. Instead of accepting this normal people conventional wisdom, FM blame gweilo and dogs and wreckers. people are not dummy okay...that's how normal people apply EMT.

When he feels that his ka ka jiao jiao is justified in the name of protecting the 400 retail investors, other people (minus the invisible dogs) too justified that their ka ka jiao jioa in the names of 2,700 of other silent retail investors. The result is dy/dx > ZERO.

IMHO, the "only" issue should be solved using Newton's third law.

Basically postulates that when two bodies interact, they apply forces to one another that are equal in magnitude and opposite in direction.

The there is a ka ka jiao jiao(action), surely there is ka ka jiao jiao(reaction) with same magnitude of force.

😂😂
Was not aware of dogs in the AGM... Another imaginary enemies? . If he hates COL and Pop, put some poops in their mouth and face. Why suddenly dragged dogs running in the auditorium? I thought was a peaceful AGM and only issue that felt it outside the auditorium somebody hide the legal costs of 800 k without any explanation?

Prof Fama said when they studied the fund management as a population, it can't beat market over a long period of time after management fees and other costs. Some lucky managers can but will be at the expense of other active managers -- question will be, for how long?

If the fund manager want to lan si, then compare to another fund manager

Eastspring Investments Small-cap Fund

It was established in year 2001 about 4 years earlier than iCAP, generating return of 1064.63%, CAGR of 11.5% over 22 years. They went through all of kind of big or small bear markets and similar lau sai KLSE market also.

Do people so lan si, trumpeting they are better than the best?

Also all other all other basis of M & A to pay a company by discounting it at a proper discount rate on its ability to generate future cash flow/earnings + terminal value must be also throw into a black hole.

Haha! Then all the finance students should tear their textbooks....all other foundations such as CAPM, Markowitz portfolio theory and Black-Scholes pricing option model must be deviant teachings also. All must go back to cave and do a barter system. ☹

Have a listen to Prof Fama on value investing, expected return and risk premia @ min 12:30

https://youtu.be/uIYzNxaMaX8

Also his view on AI and investing @ min 21:35

I am really puzzled by iCAP advertising on low risk, high return.

Let's not talk about low risk first, just talk about high return. Is 4.5% share price CAGR high return???? 1 year, 2 year okay la but we are talking about 17 years!

Any lawyer around here? Can we stop iCAP to continue to advertise low risk, high return? They cannot keep saying not happy don't buy la.

"The Consumer Protection Act 1999 makes false and misleading advertising a criminal offence."

https://www.eraconsumer.org/eraconsumer/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=234:misleading-advertising&catid=80:consumer-law&Itemid=106#:~:text=The%20Consumer%20Protection%20Act%201999,purchase%20of%20goods%20and%20services.

Based on the historical back testing data by @dumbMoney......The fund manager will need his magic hands to do 30% CAGR at least 3 years in a row to convince he still has the Midas touch....PAR

Evan at 25% CAGR, people will give him markah kesian with 10% discounts.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Plotted together, there is a very strong correlation coefficient between NAV CAGR and price discount, at R square = 0.86, meaning that up to 86% of the price discount variation can be accounted for by the CAGR, i.e. the declining price discount can be directly traced back to the declining CAGR performance of the fund. Mystery solved.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Peter Lynch's investing technique😂😂

🙈🙉🙊

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
free thing no good.
Laura Ashley went into Administration
and sold off almost free 🤣 to US based bankruptcy specialist firm.

////////////
Investors basically got free Laura Ashley with the price they paid.
///////////

>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Smart man✌

@sslee, respect your reasonings.

Yup....anything possible.

What is your view on BJ Corp?