Posted by Sslee > 2020-05-02 14:22 | Report Abuse

Haha qqq3
Malaysia roads are so bicycle unfriendly. Most likely you will be knocked down by motorbike or car and end up in hospital.

And by the way Malaysia weather is so hot and humid you will sweet like hell before you reach your office.

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-05-02 14:27 | Report Abuse

financial markets vs realists............


financial markets bullish, realist bearish....I am on realist side.

financial markets are always optimistic, forever optimistic, that is in their genes and what all analysts are paid to do.

central banks printing money pushing up share prices. In the real world, we call it drug abuse.

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-05-02 14:45 | Report Abuse

Posted by Sslee > May 2, 2020 2:22 PM | Report Abuse

Haha qqq3
Malaysia roads are so bicycle unfriendly. Most likely you will be knocked down by motorbike or car and end up in hospital.

And by the way Malaysia weather is so hot and humid you will sweet like hell before you reach your office.

==========

u give Singapore another 10 years...........Singapore will show it can done , even in a tropical country.



When voters measure government by GDP , they will promote car industry.......

When voters measure government by better metrics, they will promote cycling........


China....China is land of opportunities and land of cycling until 2000...........now 20 years of fast car growth, China too will go back to its roots........


this time, with E bikes.......

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-05-02 17:51 | Report Abuse

philips.............how do u like, every business also open close open close for next 12 months..

Malaysia not Wuhan.......there is no way Malaysia can so swiftly defeat virus like China can.....Latest number of cases back to trible digits just before our re opening.......


Open close open close, every business also bankrupt in Malaysia in the next 12 months.

But u should be ok......

Yinson.........international business
Serba...........middle East.......

slowly slowly shifting all assets overseas..........

Posted by Invest4Future > 2020-05-02 18:00 | Report Abuse

Hi Philip, I am new in shares invest. I would like to learn from you. Based on your studies, what is the best price for PCHEM you will consider to sell your shares let’s say the price shoot up to 11.20 (100%) from current price. Will you consider to sell it off? Or you already set the price if more than 10 then you will sell? From your previous posts i know you invest in PCHEM for long terms because you are confident this company has a bright future. Will you hold this stock if it achieve highest price ever in one day and the company report is showing it still hv more room to growth. Just curious what is your ultimate mission for long terms investment in this PCHEM. Thanks in advance!

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-05-02 19:10 | Report Abuse

sslee/ philip


before 2020 ends, there will be > 1 billion cases and 3 million deaths..........per the IRC.............


wait and see how equity markets handle that.

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-05-02 19:12 | Report Abuse

u see...I make predictions, I put in expiry dates.....that way my predictions are verifiable........

Posted by stockraider > 2020-05-02 19:12 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-05-02 19:28 | Report Abuse

petition? If u are teacher or anyone with iron rice bowl, u will sign the petition. But for many, hands stop mouth stop, How?

Poverty and mental disorder kills as effectively as any virus will........

MCO...many suffering from loneliness and mental disorder already......

Posted by Sslee > 2020-05-02 19:40 | Report Abuse

Dear Philip,
Borrow your popular blog to promote my Food for thought: Last words of Covid-19 patient, “Who’s going to pay for it?”
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Sslee_blog/2020-05-02-story-h1506854379-Food_for_thought_Last_words_of_Covid_19_patient_Who_s_going_to_pay_for_.jsp

haha qqq3,
The mortality rate of covid-19 is 2-4%. If 1 billion cases the deaths will be 20-40 millions.

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-05-02 20:21 | Report Abuse

after a while, every country so fed up, they will stop showing case and death statistics....

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2020-05-02 20:28 | Report Abuse

Hi invest4future, share price is rarely my major criteria when I buy stocks. In fact, the truth of the matter is, I hate selling stocks that I hold. When I do sell, it is usually because I have no choice because I find a stock that I like or I think has a much further chance of growing, so I usually sell a bit to nibble a new stock that I purchase. If it performs, I invest more. If your idea is to buy the same stocks I hold, my recommendation is for you not to follow me, as my risks levels and profits levels are far different from yours. I started buying PCHEM last year at RM8.15, but my investment into yinson was in 2013 what it was little more than RM1, QL below 80 cents, topglove also below 80 cents etc (after share splits), I can hold because of the dividends that I am receiving is far more than my buying costs.

As for PCHEM, my critera for selling is more complicated, here are my factors for selling below:

1. Please watch the netflix episode of dirty money (my favourite documentary introduced by my son, so interesting), the episode on petrochemicals formosa,
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Formosa_Plastics_Corp

Here a strong indicator for me to sell is when PCHEM starts to look at getting profit at all costs, hurting and killing people near its production plants. Now, so far PCHEM is exemplary in its safety and health process, and they have given out a policy of 50% payout, leaving enough money for sustainable growth and good management. As long as this continues, I will hold the stock.

2. Future growth of the market - As long as PCHEM is investing into new petrochemical markets I am more than content to follow its growth. As their track record of M&A and new construction (SAMUR, Da vinci) and securing specialty high value products in cosmetics, beauty and healthcare (note the new isononanol plant in PIC), I have no worries that it will continue to grow in the region. I may sell if it starts to have a new competitor (and no LCTITAN is far from a competitor) that starts forcing PCHEM to throw price to gain revenue. As long as the revenue numbers (post COVID) continue to go up, I am content to hold on for dear life. If the company starts to have management problems or shrinking market share, then I will sell.

3.Net profits - As long as PCHEM continues to be able to increase revenues while maintaining 25% net profit, then I will always hold this stock.

So my young friend, share price is usually the last reason for me to sell a stock. Look at it this way, when you see a car accident, do you check to see if the heart is still beating? No, you check arms and legs, any holes or wounds or blood loss. Those will usually signal danger to you faster than putting your ear and listening to the heart beat.

There are many ways to check. Selling a stock just because the price has gone up or done is a stupid way of investing.




>>>>>>>

Invest4Future Hi Philip, I am new in shares invest. I would like to learn from you. Based on your studies, what is the best price for PCHEM you will consider to sell your shares let’s say the price shoot up to 11.20 (100%) from current price. Will you consider to sell it off? Or you already set the price if more than 10 then you will sell? From your previous posts i know you invest in PCHEM for long terms because you are confident this company has a bright future. Will you hold this stock if it achieve highest price ever in one day and the company report is showing it still hv more room to growth. Just curious what is your ultimate mission for long terms investment in this PCHEM. Thanks in advance!
02/05/2020 6:00 PM

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2020-05-02 20:36 | Report Abuse

I paraphrase munger,

" Imagine you can borrow 10K to any university student in a particular class to get 10% of his earnings until his death. Who will you choose? Do you pick the top student in class or the average achiever? Most of the time the top student in class is the more reliable bet. Now imagine that top student got the scholarship and went on to work for a Forbes 500 company. Do you now sell his share and bet on that average student that just came out to work as a junior position? Of course not. Now, imagine that student now became the president of the company. Do you now sell your claim to his earnings and invest in the average student just on the potential that he MIGHT become the president of the company?"

Putting it this way, it now sounds silly selling something just because the price went up, and buying something just because the price went down.

The simple fact is, most of the time, there is a perfectly valid reason why some things are cheap and some things are expensive.

You just have to understand WHY.

So invest4future, you should start to pay less attention to share price, and start paying more attention to understanding the business itself. In fact, you would be much better off just forgetting the share price ticker, PE and technical analysis models, stock pick recommendation etc. When you start learning how to recognize wonderful companies that can grow 10-20 years into the future, you will stop feeling the pain of short term price volatility.

Posted by Invest4Future > 2020-05-02 23:36 | Report Abuse

Thanks Philip. I hv learned a lot today.

Posted by Maximus > 2020-05-03 00:18 | Report Abuse

Mr. Philip,
I started follow every note you written down here. And this is what i derived.

In Internet World, anything that people posted must only be accepted with a pinch of salt.

However, i choose to believe in your portfolio and your analysis on stock picking.

Those who attacks you with intention to push their penny and speculative stock like NETX will soon be made known to the young investor, if they have the patience and wisdom to use their analytic mindset.

NETX, at best is just like those Infrastructure Builders like Binacom and OCK. a Project based and one off cyclical prosperity. I am from Telco background, the way they promote NETX is treating it like Telco. Even Telco services now is like a Commodity, they will compete on pricing with not much growth prospect. Let alone just a infrastructure provider. I did voice my opinion, and i was muted. I suspect they are concerted syndicate that behave like locust. Once NETX is doomed, they will move on the feed on others.

I had started investing since year 2000. I had learnt mistake throughout my investing life.

In time of an imminent recession cycle, if strong fundamental companies cannot withstand the Tsunami, what more to those speculative stick.

I hope during my early investing age, i had met a true investor like you to guide the younger ones.

I did miss out an opportunity of HL CAP, when my holding was 40 lots odd share @ average price of RM1.15. When it started climbing i disposed at around RM 1.45. It went up close to RM11 plus and got suspended since. (YNH was trying to buy to get hold of a controlling stake or something.

I hope i can learn more from you.

My Current Holding Counters are:
Maybank
TENAGE
HLFG
HLIND
BJTOTO
GENTING
YTLPOWER
MAXIS
TM
GPACKET
CYPARk
HAPSENG
IGBREIT (Sold All, after MCO extended)

Posted by popo92 > 2020-05-03 11:41 | Report Abuse

Philip sifu, I believe you have missed out learning_investor question on mfcb. Can you share your insight on mfcb as well? Do you think it’s as risky as jaks in the moment? Appreciate if you could share your view on it.

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2020-05-03 14:07 | Report Abuse

Hi maximus, you have a very diversified portfolio, how do you keep track of any of it?
I feel that too much diversification usually leads to DIWORSIFICATION. Instead of buying stocks and companies that you are not familiar with, you should try to scuttlebutt more on things that you are familiar with and are exposed with that can benefit you more. For example, since you are in Telco field, you should start looking around in that industry. Companies like Cisco and oracle ( which you cannot run away from if you are in Telco field) have a bigger market and are far more profitabl bet over the long term. Timecom, etc are also a good investment of you monitor that versus TM etc.

2 mental models which I learned was total addressable market and knowing your busiess ( versus liking your business). Let me clarify:

1. Digi, maxis, TM and tenaga for example. What is their market share of the industry? Who else can they sell to? How are they diversifying their revenue streams? Take for example tenaga, they basically have a monopoly on power generation in Malaysia. As their contracts are fixed, rate is fixed growth is fixed. Investing in those companies are more of a defensive nature. But if you can apply the menttal model of total addressable market, you can start to look at businesses as living entities that grow over time and produce revenue and earnings. Looking at that, if you spend time to anticipate where growth is coming from in the future and where TM, Digi and maxis can expand to in the next 5-10 years. If your only reason to! buy the stock is because the sucker is going up, and there will be more people 5 years from now, the youn you really need to take a good hard look into your business.

2. Knowing your business is different from liking it. Just because you like solar and you have FIT installed in your house doesn't mean investing in cypark is a good idea. Just because you like gambling sometimes in genting, it doesn't mean investing in genting is a good idea. You need to understand it like a business. Who owns it. What is the percentage of ownership? Who are it's management. What is the history of performance. Cash/debt levels? Peg growth, earnings growth, new business divisions. All these are important factors for me.

That is not to say you have made any bad investment decisions, as you have rightly invested in very defensive stocks, and building your position over this mega discount period, will gives you even larger returns in the long term. Keep investing and keep learning!

Good luck,


>>>>>>>>>>

My Current Holding Counters are:
Maybank
TENAGE
HLFG
HLIND
BJTOTO
GENTING
YTLPOWER
MAXIS
TM
GPACKET
CYPARk
HAPSENG
IGBREIT (Sold All, after MCO extended)

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2020-05-03 15:57 | Report Abuse

Hi popo92, mfcb, your guess is as good as mine. I personally hate property developers, but as mfcb has gotten out of that market it gets a plus on my book. And with the latest capacity payment of 29 million from Don sahong it seems like a good deal. However the 800 million in borrowings, 130 million in cash send to me a huge gearing issue. In my opinion energy business should be done only by companies with excess in cash, and not by overloading with debt. Looking at the payments, it seems they will be able to clear debt in 15 years, which is a good thing for a 25 year contract.

I prefer to look at less riskier businesses personally.

Posted by popo92 > 2020-05-03 19:45 | Report Abuse

Philip sifu, thanks for your insight. I think they didn't focus much on property developers, but a limestone producer. They are the largest limestone producer by far in Malaysia. Anyway what catch me with mfcb is that 29million from Don sahong is derived from 35.1million revenue and that's without full capacity. If i got my calculation roughly correct i believe this coming quarter it should contribute 50million to 70 million from Don sahong, probably 100million when its a wet quarter. With these kind of cash flow seems paying its 746million borrowings isn't an issue, and it's an flexi USD loan that with fed rate now its reducing until less than 3% (saw an report it can save USD5million a year). Other than figures and probably weather that affect level of water, i feel I don't really understand much with this business very well at all. Could you share some views of yours that why its a riskier business? thank you in advance

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2020-05-03 21:58 | Report Abuse

Here, let me put it on a basis of risk. The best business to invest in are those which require minimum output of capital, but give you huge returns. That is why companies like Alibaba, Facebook, Google, Amazon are so popular. The revenues and cash flow generated versus the cost outlay.

If at any way possible, I like to invest in businesses like these.

Take for example QL( or Dutch lady), with an net value of 1.6 billion, it is able to generate 4 billion in revenue and 240 million in earnings. A very satisfactory return on capital employed.

Now let's look at mfcb, with a similar net value of 1.7 billion, it generates 874 million and 129 million in earnings. How this translates to me is mfcb needs to employ a much larger capital to get a smaller return. If you look at the business closer, you need to spend a lot of money to get a product that will take 4 years to build, and you are not earning anything while it is building ( forget about construction profits, I think it is bullshit accounting), and once running you need to wait another 10+ years to break even, all the while shouldering interest payments on huge loans that are guaranteed, versus production that is not guaranteed. You got a few dry months here and there, a maintenance turnaround, a force majeure, then your entire investment goes up in smoke. Very stressful.

Let's take another example of air Asia. With the net value of 6.2 billion in 2018, it generated 10.6 billion and 1.9 in earnings. In many ways of you skip the covid19 virus and just looked at fixed fuel costs, it is far cheaper to grow revenue and earnings with equal level of dollar investment, even with the threat losing a plane. Of course, looking on hind sight, the lack of controls in fuel cost hedging and the black swan covid-19 in grounding almost all airlines would have made investing in AirAsia a big no-no.

But the point I'm trying to put across is to understand risk in terms of returns. If we can put very little capital out but get a big return, and if the business model is replicable and scalable, then it is considered low risk. If you have to put a lot of money upfront, and get a consistent return years from now, unless the company already has a consistent cash flow churning up to reward you whole waiting, then I would consider it a high risk.

Posted by popo92 > 2020-05-03 22:54 | Report Abuse

Thanks for your inputs. I couldn't agree more with you that i like business model that is replicable and scalable too. Too bad capital intensive business usually are not attractive enough given that capital expenditures are require to just maintain its operation. It seems that you often look quite a big picture and ignore what investors can be excite with short to medium term earnings.

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-05-04 01:55 | Report Abuse

This Philips sound like a complete investor to me and good mentality too.

But, u never can be certain. Wallen the Bufalo just reported a $ 50 billion lost because of the virus...............


me? I think there is a time for investors like Wallen the Bufalo.......and there are times for traders.......

I need to stick with 3 words written in the passport for success

PROACTIVE, CONSISTENT, CONFIDENT.

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-05-04 02:08 | Report Abuse

Knowledge and experience are the foundation
Character and attitude are the Walls

I cannot find any weakness in Philips armory.....

But the finishing is beyond anyone's control.

sometimes the Era just fits a person's character and attitude and some times, it just works against a person's character and attitude...........

Posted by Sslee > 2020-05-04 08:17 | Report Abuse

Haha qqq3,
Luckily Philip is the rare minority otherwise bursa and many stockbroking firms will need to close shop.

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2020-05-04 09:06 | Report Abuse

The only reason why Warren buffett started investing in energy business is because of Berkshire Hathaway own competitive advantage. They have so much cash lying around that they can fund entire power plant without taking a single loan, and enjoy the entire profit production.

But in more important criteria of judgement is his total performance over time. Show me one investor that did not lose money over this period and I will show you one who is holding cash. If you cannot handle periods where your networth drops by 50% then you shouldn't be investing.

But the trick is what is the long term growth rate.

At the peak of y2k everyone was saying value investing is dead. In 2007 they said Warren buffet lost his touch. Today who has 120 billion in cash to invest in, while many companies are going bankrupt and belly up?

>>>>>>>>

But, u never can be certain. Wallen the Bufalo just reported a $ 50 billion lost because of the virus...............

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-05-04 09:55 | Report Abuse

Wallen the Bufalo also say don't bet against America

But he is wrong there too.

America is now the laughing stock of the world. America is not the city on the hill anymore.

Many people have hated America but none has laughed at America until now.

Takes a lot to sink the titanic, but the titanic will sink.

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-05-04 09:57 | Report Abuse

sslee............gloves are the only game in town.............Is there any other game?

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2020-05-04 09:59 | Report Abuse

Something I find really interesting, but I have never been able to do, is to anticipate when prices are becoming expensive ( I only know when it's cheap).

Something to look at is Berkshire cash position ( not market valuation) throughout the years. It is very very suspicious. At almost every peak (2000, 2007, 2020), when markets are at its most expensive, he seems to be able to build a huge cash position. Then when the entire world crashes, he goes in and buys a busload of stocks and businesses and makes a killing.

The tone of this year's anywhere meeting and his responses show that he believes covid-19 in USA is just the starting point. Looking at how the market is piling money into stocks while businesses remain closed, show that he believes the worse is yet to come. Note that Warren didn't buy a single cent of shares when brk dropped by 30% for a short while, and the phones are not ringing yet for help.

I think rate of recovery will follow the same cycle, with China and the other countries that strictly adhere to MCO facing the quickest recovery, and USA will burn right through its stimulus package and a long long road to recovery.

>>>>>>>>

https://youtu.be/CenqkE5y9X8

Posted by Maximus > 2020-05-04 21:53 | Report Abuse

Thanks. Mr. Philip, yes, too diversified. Need to do some streamline. But for US stock, i use Public Mutual to learn the Stock picks. Threshold to hold US stock is rather quite high. Need to accumulate more bullets.

Thanks for your precious advice.

Posted by Sslee > 2020-05-05 19:29 | Report Abuse

Dear Philip,
Karim keep selling Serbadk warrant. May be you should also sell your to book 44% profit.

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2020-05-05 19:56 | Report Abuse

Wow, maybe I should listen to you eh? Your prediction on GKENT going to 45 cents so you can buy more? So sell after bad qr results right?

QL overpriced and going to crash.

Pchem you can buy before my cost at 4.09.

INSAS going to MGO and push price up from rm1 to rm2.60.

Etc etc.

Please learn to value businesses and don't use comments and analysts and online sifus to decide your investment pattern.

As for Karim selling Serbadk warrant, you really need to understand in terms of context. Please look at his total portfolio. He sold 9 million ( free warrants), out of 158 million warrants and 665,505,870 shares.

After selling that 10 million warrants he only gets 2.5m ringgit. That is a drop in the ocean for him as he still owns 665m shares.

Suffice to say, read it in the total context. What does he need with 2.5 million? Who knows, maybe his kids want to go to university. However, how does it affect his total shareholdings? He still has 20+% of Serbadk, he is one of the richest people in Malaysia, and he has a huge ambition and plans to grow Serbadk.

Making decisions based on warrants sales ( with no dividend) is the same making decisions based on analysts report on gkent 50 cents, and director announcement INSAS is most undervalued company in Malaysia.

See what they do, not what they say.

Warren buffet selling ALL of his STOCKS, losing 50 billion in airlines says a whole lot about the future of airline business, no matter what CEOs of Delta will say.

Posted by Sslee > 2020-05-06 09:00 | Report Abuse

Haha Philip,
“Warren buffet selling ALL of his STOCKS, losing 50 billion in airlines says a whole lot about the future of airline business, no matter what CEOs of Delta will say”

I wonder why no one question Warren Buffet why he bought so much airline business and now need to cut loss. What had changed? Is the change permanent or temporary? Is he reactive or proactive?

Maybe qqq3 is much better investor than Warren buffet!
the truth is ....opinions are always colored.........

experience and knowledge not enough to make good decision....decisions are based on character and attitude.....and u need to be PROACTIVE, CONSISTENT, CONFIDENT.

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2020-05-06 10:16 | Report Abuse

His explanation was very concise and useful. Maybe you should watch the whole annual meeting and actually listen instead of fishing for stock tips.

Here is how he explained it.

Airlines are in big trouble, they are caught between rock and a hard place. To survive the year and more, they will need to take a huge loan of 10-13 billion each to gain breathing room and survive until covid ends and people are brave enough to fly again.

However looking at how things are going, even when they start flying again the volume and profits will be far lower than last year for the medium time going forward.

All the while they will need to shoulder the interest costs and principal payments of that 10 billion dollar loan. That will put their profitability and growth prospects on a backbiter for a long time yet.

That in essence of why warren sold all his airline stocks. Very simple, very clear and very painful explanation of why he was willing to lose 50 billion selling all those stocks.

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-05-06 10:45 | Report Abuse

The Oracle of Omaha

He is rich and successful, got good character, good attitude.

A good example for everybody. Criticisms cannot stick under such circumstances.

If I want to look for a fund manager I also want to look for another Oracle just like him.

No wonder, every fund manager in town also put up the Bufalo banner.

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-05-06 11:11 | Report Abuse

Everyone also can put up Bufalo banner.

But having good character is not easy to find with fund manager. The Bufalo man is a rare one in the industry.

Mostly, fund managers have teflon characters...of course Bernie Madoff is the other extreme., but actually very common.

I think it comes with the industry. Stock market, full of opportunities, full of uncertainties. Its an industry full of teflon characters. Or what they say............Greed is good.

The rewards are out of proportion to their contribution to society.

Posted by Sslee > 2020-05-06 11:11 | Report Abuse

Haha,
I like Philip a lot and love to poke/pick his mind and he always can give you his third level thinking answer.

But my question is actually why Warren Buffet invest 11% stake in Delta Air Lines, 10% of American Airlines, 10% of Southwest Airlines and 9% of United Airlines in the first place? Why is he so bullish on airline and bought all instead of the best one? Has he not knows that airline need huge capital to generate revenue and earning while they are not in control of the fuel cost?

Quote from Philip, “Take for example QL( or Dutch lady), with an net value of 1.6 billion, it is able to generate 4 billion in revenue and 240 million in earnings. A very satisfactory return on capital employed.

Now let's look at mfcb, with a similar net value of 1.7 billion, it generates 874 million and 129 million in earnings. How this translates to me is mfcb needs to employ a much larger capital to get a smaller return. If you look at the business closer, you need to spend a lot of money to get a product that will take 4 years to build, and you are not earning anything while it is building ( forget about construction profits, I think it is bullshit accounting), and once running you need to wait another 10+ years to break even, all the while shouldering interest payments on huge loans that are guaranteed, versus production that is not guaranteed. You got a few dry months here and there, a maintenance turnaround, a force majeure, then your entire investment goes up in smoke. Very stressful.

Let's take another example of air Asia. With the net value of 6.2 billion in 2018, it generated 10.6 billion and 1.9 in earnings. In many ways of you skip the covid19 virus and just looked at fixed fuel costs, it is far cheaper to grow revenue and earnings with equal level of dollar investment, even with the threat losing a plane. Of course, looking on hind sight, the lack of controls in fuel cost hedging and the black swan covid-19 in grounding almost all airlines would have made investing in AirAsia a big no-no.

But the point I'm trying to put across is to understand risk in terms of returns. If we can put very little capital out but get a big return, and if the business model is replicable and scalable, then it is considered low risk. If you have to put a lot of money upfront, and get a consistent return years from now, unless the company already has a consistent cash flow churning up to reward you whole waiting, then I would consider it a high risk” unquote.

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-05-06 12:12 | Report Abuse

so why did Warren Buffet buy so many airline stocks?


I am sure it is his value investing impulse.................

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-05-06 19:55 | Report Abuse

buddy philips

your icon the bufalo got a lot of cash............so why are u in margin?

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-05-06 20:07 | Report Abuse

financial markets bullish, economy in free fall

traditional view is market is a discounting machine. Through the thousands of transactions, the market will find the truth......that is basis of operation for many generations of economists.

faith in market and faith in democracies go hand in hand.....both assumes the majority will find the correct path. The twin hall marks of America.


But it appears America got a broken democracy and a broken market. America democracy at a lost when faced with virus and financial market has no relation with a free falling economy., now and the next 12 months.

The financial market is on artificial support by FED and Congress and the link between market and economy has never been so broken..........so how?


All these are signs fundamental changes are taking place........and by 2030, China's economy will be twice that of USA ( in purchasing power basis).

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-05-06 20:10 | Report Abuse

.In 1980, China economy one twentyth of USA, by 2030 China economy twice USA ( by purchasing power) and forms 30% of world economy, USA 15% and EU13%...............In 1820, China economy was 30% of world economy.......

why I write all that?

because when fundamental changes are taking place...........every assumption also need re examination................

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2020-05-06 20:25 | Report Abuse

I consider it borrowings. As long as I can earn a yearly return on my stock of more than 3.65% per annum, then I believe it is a good use of borrowings to grow my earnings.

So far my margin borrowings have gained me average return of 30+% and still holding.


Berkshire Hathaway also has borrowings.

Insurance and Other:
Notes payable and other borrowings 37,176
Railroad, Utilities and Energy:
Notes payable and other borrowings 65,018

They are paying very very low rates, and gaining good return on equity.

So, my advice to you is simple. If you do not know what you are doing, stay out of margin. But if you know your business well, treat margin as borrowings that can help you grow your business.

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-05-06 20:52 | Report Abuse

there are 2 sets of accounts.... the consolidated group accounts and the company account. so..... go and find if your icon company account got margin or not....

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-05-06 20:53 | Report Abuse

so, is the buffalo really on cash or on borrowings?

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2020-05-06 22:44 | Report Abuse

Why don't you find out why you are not using margin? And find out if Berkshire can use both cash and cheap borrowings.

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2020-05-06 22:44 | Report Abuse

Find out and let me know what you find thanks.

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-05-07 00:54 | Report Abuse

y Philip ( buy what you understand) > May 4, 2020 9:59 AM | Report Abuse

Something I find really interesting, but I have never been able to do, is to anticipate when prices are becoming expensive ( I only know when it's cheap).

Something to look at is Berkshire cash position
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u started by saying the bufalo so smart always got cash at market bottoms...........That is the image he wants projected..........But, in fact, he where got so smart?


He uses his insurance companies to buy shares at the bottom.....insurance companies,, always plenty of liquid assets by law...........His insurance companies are his piggy banks.........

That is what his critics have been saying....but don't tell his fans...........



ps...I did not verify...he go verify lah......

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2020-05-07 07:45 | Report Abuse

Ok you are right, he is not so smart. But his ability to turn 500 per share to 250,000 per share has nothing to do with being smart.

To be good at stock investing you don't have to be smart le. No need to know so many complicated math and figures and grand SMA/candlesticks etc.

You just need to be very very rational. If something makes sense, you buy it. If it doesn't make sense you don't buy it. Very simple, buy can you stick with the plan?. Sometimes for 2 years he doesn't buy any stock back in 65'. Sometimes in one month he buys 15 stocks. Can you stay out of the market that
Long? Or buy when everyone was selling?

Your concept of Berkshire using insurance float as piggy bank also doesn't make sense. You think it is like EPF? Only pay back when they reach 55? Got so easy? For one thing, Berkshire has underwriting profit every year compared to many of the big insurance companies. That means their premiums is enough to cover all losses payouts every year. They don't do like other insurance companies that pull underwriting losses just so they can have money to "invest" during good years. But the fact is Warren didn't take advantage of float like you think they do.

https://www.insurancejournal.com/news/national/2020/02/24/559190.htm

Yes, they have 129 billion in float in 2019. But their average cost of float was 3.65%. you think it is free money? During the unprofitable years (1967-1999, got 14 years which lose money) their cost of float is 7.9%. of course the profitable years balanced everything out.

So if you think it is free money, you have another thing to think about. The thing about Berkshire is they used their 1.6 to 1 leveraging to grow at a far faster rate than if they didn't use leverage. I did the same thing more than 10 years ago, after finally understanding how to do rational investing and pay for wonderful companies.

So today, you have access to margin at cheaper rate than Warren buffet cost on float. What are you going to do with it?

Gamble on London biscuit again? Buy stocks without earnings and revenues?

Instead of proactive, creative, etc etc, first and most important is to be rational.

When everyone is selling me stocks are cheap prices ( 23 march 2020 before short selling blocked), I was able to use my MARGIN to buy GKENT at 45, Pchem at 4.09, Serbadk warrant at 18, Serbadk share at 1.19. star at 26

All below asset level, some at absurd below cash level.

If you don't have margin, how can you take advantage of Mr market irrationality? When gkent CASH ( never mind other plant, factory and assets) alone is 0.42 per share, paying 0.45 per share doesn't take intelligence. When star CASH per share is 50 cents ( never mind license, factory and condominium), paying 26 cents is just... Rational.

So you see, you don't have to be smart. You just need to understand how business works, not trend lines and candlesticks and charts.

So are you RATIONAL? Or does fear have you by the balls during Bear markets and you have sudden irrationality about your stockpicking skill during bull markets.

>>>>>>>>

But, in fact, he where got so smart?

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-05-07 10:54 | Report Abuse

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > May 7, 2020 7:45 AM | Report Abuse

Gamble on London biscuit again? Buy stocks without earnings and revenues?
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The time when I gambled on London Biscuit, it was a very rational gamble and paid off handsomely within a few days as the share doubled from 15 sen to 30 sen......


and buy SCIB and Kpower now very rational....no earnings and no revenue now but will have huge earnings and revenue in the future..This one, I clock it to investment. Not trading. ....but if can make 50% when rotational play comes around, I don't mind letting go one.....

Posted by stockraider > 2020-05-07 11:12 | Report Abuse

He is not that honest as he seems mah...!!

In march 2020 he bought more airline stocks & claim heis not going to sell his airline stocks mah!.

In april 2020, he dumped all his airline stocks say prospect very bad loh....!!

U think when WB when he bought some airline stock in march, do not know prospect no good leh ??

He just want to convince his followers to take the huge quantity airline stock from him in order to facilitate his dumping exercise loh!

Posted by qqq33333333 > May 6, 2020 10:45 AM | Report Abuse

The Oracle of Omaha

He is rich and successful, got good character, good attitude.

A good example for everybody. Criticisms cannot stick under such circumstances.

If I want to look for a fund manager I also want to look for another Oracle just like him.

No wonder, every fund manager in town also put up the Bufalo banner.

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-05-07 11:31 | Report Abuse

rational, irrational

make money is rational, lose money is irrational.

at least from my perspective.

stock market is gambling and gambling is emotion......

stock market is mostly propaganda ( in time periods of less than 1 year)..........

student of marketing / propaganda should understand stock market better than maths students.........


how often is stock market rational over a short period of a few months.? not very often.

for proper investments u can only judge it after 2-3 years. That is the time line for scib and Kpower to have good revenue and earnings.


Most of the time, I don't have that kind of patience. But having Supermax and Comfort over the last 1 month is very rational too.


Investments without patience is irrational. But investments with a lot of patience but only losses to show for the patience is also irrational.