please mention about the undervalue stocks,,their names.. so that we are not worried if index goes down...which counters if the index goes down,,,not necessary to worry
In recent weeks, most of the investment sectors except plantation are coming down. About 2 or 3 days ago in The Star Biz you would have read that Alvin Tai of RHB research and 3 other plantation experts from 3 other financial institutions said that the price of palm oil was moving up and would benefit plantation companies.
You have to do some home work to convince yourself. If you want to know more, you can attend my talk with Alvin Tai at 10.30 am - 12.30 PM on 18th Jan. Ipoh YMCA. No seat reservation, first come first serve.
All the shares you mentioned above do not have the most important selection criterion which is "good profit growth prospect". The companies may be selling cheaply in terms of P/E ratio but they cannot produce increasing and sustainable profit. You must find if they can make more profit this year than last year and can they make more profit next year than this year. If they cannot make increasing profit the shares price will remain cheap.
If you want to learn how to make more money than you ever did before come to attend my talk free of charge in Ipoh YMCA 10.30 am on Saturday 18th Jan
uncle Koon, i rmbr u r a dato,maybe i m wrong. But anyway, after careful study, jTiasa has 2 issues: 1) huge debt 2) estate is in srwk, not a superb location 3)there r also better choice like srwk plant, TSH, Firest-Resource, MKH, SHchan, why r u not targetting those instead
vinext must examine your old tract record to see how well you have performed. With due respect to you, judging from the statement you made, you cannot be a good investor and you need to attend my talk at Ipoh YMCA tomorrow at 10.30 am - 12.30 pm.
Regarding ppfoong's comment, this smear champagne by the Americans has been going on for decades. They have already cut down all their forest to improve their economy and they say we should not do it to save the environment. Remember the US is burning the most fossil fuel in the world and what would they say about that. In any case, the area cover by palm leaves comply with the UN standard.
I will post another article about the smear champagne shortly.
my Kulim is up 1500%, TSH 1000%, ijmplant <1000%, i owned them. top pick i didnt buy but my mentee buy after they went up alot,hartalega,aeoncredit, return 1300% 600%^ from target price,all record in chat histry of skype or msn, if i'v a time,i wil like to run a real-cash portfolio vis a vis urs, much to learn fr u, warren buffett of msia
Congratulation vinetxt for such fantastic success. Now you must put down the prices of JT, TSH, Hartalega etc to compare in 1,2 or 3 years. Time will tell who is right!
Vinext,I am so so impressed with your 1000-1500% return of Kuliam, TSH and Ijmplant...could you kindly share when did you buy these counters and your entry cost....TQ.
Assuming these 1000-1500% return is being achieved in a 10 years' context, it's still a whopping 100-150% return a year.....Vinext, you are GOD in stock market....
What an arrogant oldman Mr Koon is! TSH is well known for its superb yield from their self develop wakuba breeds!Moreover TSH's land are located at highly fertile sabah and indonesia rather than jtiasa's unfruitful peat soil in sarawak! Regarding growth prospect they have land bank of 131kha and only 38kha was planted! The average tree age profile is 7 years! Obviously this is a counter with good grow prospect! After cash call and asset selling TSH is only geared to 0.71x. I love TSH for its large tract of unplanted higgly fertile land and superb yield wakuba breeds but I didn't bought it because I dislike TSH's highly geared balance sheet and I strongly believe it will launched a few of round cash call and it did happen!
Regarding sarawak's peat soil sorry there are tonnes of research proved that planting on peat soil is hurting environment due to green house effect. Only those who are blind able to deny it! By the way it won't change the environmentalist and big consumers decision no matter how hard the sarawakian protest!
First Resources have the best profit margin in plantation counters even though their yields are not as high as tsh or united plantation! Besides that they have just completed their refining capacity and they have plant to produce biodiesel! Regarding growth they have more than 160k hectares of unplanted land! Besides that around 55% of their trees are below prime! First Resources profit margin are way higher, they have recently completed their plant development and their capital expenditure will be lower for the next few years which will translate to better dividend payout.
For Jtiasa I am worried on next round of private placement! Their warchest is only RM 128 million but their debts are RM 842 million. They need another RM 235 million to construct 3 new mills. Obviously it will have another round of private placement like tsh! Mr Koon's projection of 30 tonnes/ha of FFB production is a big flaw!Sarawak is well known for its low yield peat soil. Only TSH and united plantation able to achieve a yield of 30tonnes/ha and it is only during their peak year! I believe a yield of 28tonnes/ha is already way too optimistic for a sarawak planter!
I am not here trying to said I am better than someone but I just couldn't stand on Mr Koon's statement that look down on others and assuming he is the best!
Posted by vinext > Jan 17, 2014 12:03 PM | Report Abuse my Kulim is up 1500%, TSH 1000%, ijmplant <1000%, i owned them.
The highest return for the above three stocks in the last 10 years was TSH of 486%. That is provided if you have kept it for 10 years.
The next is IJMPlant of 200%, and Kulim 116%, also if you have kept them for 10 years.
For Kulim, if you have bought it 3 years ago, you will be still at a loss of 50% if you still keep it until now.
How do you calculate your return?
TSH 2.86 Period 1 year 2-year 3 year 4 year 5 year 10 years Price 2.17 1.99 1.37 1.08 0.71 0.49 Return 31.8% 43.7% 108.8% 166.0% 302.8% 485.7% CAR 31.8% 19.9% 27.8% 27.7% 32.1% 19.3%
Kulim 3.320 Period 1 year 2-year 3 year 4 year 5 year 10 years Price 3.800 4.430 6.640 3.710 2.430 1.540 Return -12.6% -25.1% -50.0% -10.5% 36.6% 115.6% CAR -12.6% -13.4% -20.6% -2.7% 6.4% 8.0%
IJMPlant 3.330 17/01/2014 Period 1 year 2-year 3 year 4 year 5 year 10 years Price 3.030 3.180 3.000 2.570 2.030 1.110 Return 9.9% 4.7% 11.0% 29.6% 64.0% 200.0% CAR 9.9% 2.3% 3.5% 6.7% 10.4% 11.6%
Respectable Uncle Koon Yew Yin - In the year 2011 / 2012 I've been investing in RSAWIT & hv managed to make quite a great fortune. After that I didnt look back to buy RSAWIT again as I hv heard & believed in people saying that 'one must never fell in love with a particular stock'.
Uncle Koon I read that last time RSAWIT is one of the hidden gem plantation stock highly recommended by u & you too hv profited in millions. However, until today RSAWIT hv yet to recover fr its past glory which was attributed to the volatile & low CPO price for the past two years.
Uncle Koon RSAWIT last traded price was 0.775. Is it the right time to accumulate RSAWIT for longterm position. TQ
wt222, thanks for the correction. I got the prices from Yahoo finance which normally would have adjusted for all the dividend, rights, bonus and share split. Checking the graph again, it appears that you are right as there was a steep drop of share price in early 2001. That was probably Yahoo Finance has not adjusted the price.
So now I multiply by 4 the prices prior to the share split and bonus, and the result is shown as appended.
Still if you have held Kulim 10 years ago until now, you make only 762%, still way below 1000%. Unless of course if you were so perfect in timing that you sold at the peak at about 4.50 2 year ago after buying Kulim 10 years ago and held it for exactly 8 years.
Kulim 3.320 Period 1 year 2-year 3 year 4 year 5 year 10 years Price 3.800 4.430 1.660 0.928 0.608 0.385 Return -12.6% -25.1% 100.0% 258.0% 446.5% 762.3% CAR -12.6% -13.4% 26.0% 37.5% 40.4% 24.0%
Well I wanna say that 1000% return in 10 years would means a compounded annual compounded return of 25.89% and not 100% per annum as mentioned by wt222.. and let us not bombard vinext altho the way he delivers his idea may be swayed.. He may be using leveraging which increases his profit tremendously.. but all of this is just assumption.. like Mr koon said, let time be the witness in 3 years time and we will see how it performs.. and since he said he has mentee meant that indirectly he is a mentor of someone..let us all share and learn ideas instead of condemning people..happy Thaipusam people! And btw if you all read buffett story, there is a few occasion he strikes 1000% return altho not in a year.
Hi kcc, I'm impress at the speed you found those data and also jot it down..could u maybe share some info on how u can find certain data so fast and compute them?? Just a new learner on value investing ^_^
I am sorry that Imenwe got the impression that I was arrogant in stating that JT is better than TSH. I am aware that TSH has been performing very well which is being reflected in its share price. During the same period, JT has been performing poorly which is also being reflected in its share price. The reason for its poor earning is because the average age of their palms in their 62,800 ha is about 5.6 years. From now on, their FFB production will continue to increase for many more years to come.
I consider the most important share selection criterion is " profit growth prospect". I believe JT can continue to produce increasing more FFB and profit for the next few years. Moreover JT is so much undervalued compare with its peers.
A reliable close friend told that his friend who is one of the controlling share holders TAN Brothers, of TSH bought JT recently.
Posted by Chrollo > Jan 17, 2014 04:54 PM | Report Abuse
Well I wanna say that 1000% return in 10 years would means a compounded annual compounded return of 25.89% and not 100% per annum as mentioned by wt222.. and let us not bombard vinext altho the way he delivers his idea may be swayed.. He may be using leveraging which increases his profit tremendously.. but all of this is just assumption..
My purpose is not to bombard anybody or what, but to bring out the concept of reasonable expectations in investing. Newbies hearing so many other people making 700%, 1000% in a year or two would be so fascinated and would expect the same return. They would be disappointed. Worst still they may treat the stock market as a gambling den, and excessive use of leverage (like you said).
Instilling false hopes is not a good thing, is it? Well may be I am just too "kepoh".
Anyone attending Mr. Koon talk tomorrow? Won't be able to attend but can someone kind enough to record the talk and share. This way more people can benefit from it and learn thru mr.koon years of experience.
What you talk/write reflects what you are. In my opinion, people made 600%, 1000%, 1300% , 1500% return is near status of God of Investment. People(if he exists) at that level will not boast. 周星驰在戏中说:“咁神奇?咁哂利?地球唔适合你。你快点返回火星吧啦!”
Posted by Chrollo > Jan 17, 2014 04:56 PM | Report Abuse Hi kcc, I'm impress at the speed you found those data and also jot it down..could u maybe share some info on how u can find certain data so fast and compute them?? Just a new learner on value investing ^_^
Chrollo, You can go to the Yahoo site below to get all the prices; either from the interactive chart, or download the stock prices for any available period. Just type in the stock number for example 5058.kl or whatever stock.
From the stock prices, you can have a spreadsheet and compute the total return and CAR for different periods.
I like to download the stock prices as I can play around with the numbers, like getting the return, standard deviation of return, beta etc for my other analysis.
Yeap I know where u are getting into..nono i am not saying you kepoh haha coz I have many new fren who entered market just new and expect one day up 30% partly due to stories of people telling that market provides immense return which is not fully true... when I tell ppl yearly consistent earnings of 20 percent is considered good but they expect one year explode 1000 percent.. so I understand why u said that the statement of 1000 % return would seduce newbies into gambling in stock market.. btw thanks for the direction kcc.. appreciate your help..did u scroll through annual report or just find from there?? =) btw what Mr koon said is correct of the future prospect growth..no point having explosive growth for first year and later on tayar pancit..
vinext must examine your old tract record to see how well you have performed. With due respect to you, judging from the statement you made, you cannot be a good investor and you need to attend my talk at Ipoh YMCA tomorrow at 10.30 am - 12.30 pm
Lol. This statement still can't show the arrogance of "Miskin" Koon? Will Oracle of Omaha labels someone as a poor investor when he is opposing his idea and tell him/her must follow his strategy to become a successful investor?
A reliable close friend told that his friend who is one of the controlling share holders TAN Brothers, of TSH bought JT recently.
Lol. Last time everyone are accusing Xingquan for accounting fraud but "Miskin" Koon assured that there is nothing wrong in their book because his cousin is working at Xing Quan's auditing firm! However he never mention that the auditing firm had audited quite a number of red chip counters whose book are cooked. By the way the fraud involving this accounting firm can easily been found through google. I don't know whether "Miskin" Koon is too careless to miss it or he just simply ignore the firm's past record! At the end Xingquan is still one of the laggard and
TSH had near to 100k ha of unplanted land yet there is no growth opportunity? Of course I am not asking everyone to enter the counter after the recent rally and I haven't done my valuation on TSH. Btw my dad's boss had made more than 200% from this counter.
If you are talking about tree age profile I believe Bumitama is a better choice! Their trees are currently at 6.5 y.o (updated to 2014). Their cpo extraction rate are way higher than Jtiasa and their balance sheet are way cleaner! Whereas Jtiasa had yet to complete its palm oil mill development. Furthermore they have IOI as their backup since they are associate company of IOI. Besides that only 130k ha++ of their more than 200k ha land bank had been planted!
As I had said "Miskin" Koon's projected FFB yield is way too optimistic. Even the management had only projected a yield of 1,194,030 tonnes of FFB. Ok let us assume the yield is accurate, with extraction rate of 21% Jtiasa will produce 257,250 tonnes of CPO. Jtiasa have 969 million shares. Since closing price on 31/10/2013 is RM2.13 so double means it will hit RM4.26 or a market cap of RM4.127 billion. Assume that Jtiasa was assigned with P/E of 15x it need to achieve net profit of RM 275 million. With a profit margin of 20% and CPO selling price of RM3k the plantation segment can only achieve net profit of RM 154 million. Other segment need to contribute a whopping RM 120.8 million. However other segments can't even contribute RM 100 million of net profit during their peak year of 2011! Even with a 25% profit margin for palm oil segment, the net profit is only RM 192 million. There will be a shortage of RM 82 million. To achieve the price target by using 25% profit margin CPO price should rise to RM 3.3k and other segments must reach their peak! If net profit margin was lowered to 20%, CPO price should rise to RM 3.8k. What if other segments are not at their peak? Or market assign a lower P/E for Jtiasa? To me a CPO price of RM 3k is totally ridiculous without any supply disruption. If supply disruption did happen how sure are you that Jtiasa's yield are totally unaffected?
This is just to highlight how hard for Jtiasa to double in 2016 especially after oil palm had been over expanded!
wow,so many active ppl. Sory i wont be able to name 1by name when i reply but a better way is to use ft.com that reflects all split,bonus,etc. I've checked, kulim was bought in 1999 or 2000, at a price way higher than my target (long story when ,say, ur bro/dad dont take instruction well). There was a kulim-WA for 2stock held,sold at 4.50 or so,m also given Wb, wc,90.4c specie/capitalrepayment from selling KFC, bonus etc. When i discount the WA to present value using high discount rate, the cost price is very very low, boosting the return to nearing20%. I dont know my return,cuz i dont peruse it that way. The portfolio return is not good,after 15yrs of investing only i truly master or rather,understand what is value investing. what i did was to guess tengboo's portfolio and managed to guess 4 of the 13stocks back then, that time,i realize i'v reach another milestone. Mahsing give good return too. But lazy to mentioned. Some star performers did disappear,eg: my megan media, transmile. My fair share of failure, a total write off. The guy who echoes my concern on high debt of Jtiasa is brilliant. Jtiasa has performed,but to sustain good return,such high debt is a stumbling block. FIRST RESOURCES is a crazy stocks, huge cash hoard, low gearing, huge unplanted landbank, 60%gross margin b4 COGS.Since mar6-11 2009,it's up 1050%
i've nvr been active on any stock discussion page, this is my 1st. It's an honor to be able to chat with mr Koon,if he is the real 1. Based on the response,there's no need to engage here. With internet,a lot of ppl can hide behind the screen& start to google,then returns with tons of info/response. (what u r abt to read in next line, is the boldest & most arrogant line u've ever read in stock forum) well, here is my challenge, arrange a live TV, internet/radio discussion,forum, debate,i can go on air live, to talk abt all sort of investment topic, assets class, econ, etc with those jokers who seek to provoke me here. Meaning, we both wil be on air live,there's no laptop for u to google, the moment i wann talk abt Jtiasa debt,i must be able to retrieve fr my brain it's abt rm800mil,abt First REs GPM is abt 60%. I'll read out the time i bot kulim, the bonus, the div etc, there's no chance to say 'wait,i check 1st in net'.
oh yes,btw,if any1 think he's good, my hedge fund friend has an open bet (like that of john train's), he wil pick 1 stock, u wil pick 1,period is 10yr, just 1stock, $100k bet. Of cuz if u buy tiger or harvest, u wud hv beaten him but u wont know it 10yrs ago tat they wil fried it 10yr later.
i know who is mr koon long ago,i moulded my invtg method long ago but if u r reading this,i urge u all to learn from him except for his insistence /failure on having an open mind to listen to other ppl's comment on it's debt, geography issues.
I dont know my stock prices, KLCI,emas 90% of the time. In Msia, u cant follow peter lynch or buffett blindly unless u can syntheticize buffett 99%. But it's rather diff given today's environment. If u r young in ur 20s or early 30s and r readingthis ,here r some golden words: 1) forget abt stock investing,focus on making $ when u r younger 2) acquire specific skil/knowledge (excluding fin'l analysis on equity) 3) if can ignore equity investing, buying property 15%/more,below bank value (all other hold constant) with positive cash flow & cap app potential & full leverage is a no brain 4) forget abt buffett advise on no leverage, it's ok if u knw the propty game 5) dont follow KOON's advise on leverage on stock,cuz u r not him,u duno how he structures it, eg: how to avoid the margin call thingy 6) it's hard 2beat the mkt, dont bother. Also dont bother with DCA dollar cost average, VCA value cost averaging. I'v found better way that work on all stock mkt./exchanges 7) everything buffett taught is correct,but if u follow him,u would hv avoided best investing opp for msian,aka palm oil,banking stock, 8) 90% of u here,cant beat the mkt,and wont,and 80%wil lose
the answer to my Q abt no-recourse CDS isssuer is Primus guaranty,my gmail record is a proof that i was my top pick,it surge fr 30c to abt 3-5. Of cuz, chan kar like that bugger who keep blasting me,dont even know WTH is non Recourse CDS issuer
6) it's hard 2beat the mkt, dont bother. Also dont bother with DCA dollar cost average, VCA value cost averaging. I'v found better way that work on all stock mkt./exchanges
Vinext,wow really interested in this method you are mentioning... care to share ? You sound like a very experienced investor !
housefordos,not here,wil tell u when i meet u.Thegood part is it works even if when i m dead,meaning, it cal be automated,bad part is it cant be fully automated like DCA. Experienced? learning nvr stop,but i m quite sure more experienced than most rookies here,i can tell one's level fr his writing
Haha... sure we should meet someday... cant beat the market ? We shall see... I picked up value investing about 1 year ago and am quite happy with the results so far... I plan to measure my performance over the period of 5 years... if i cannot beat the market,I will just sell all my stocks and put in index fund... haha
mr koon, i have read many great and value articles of yours on stock investment and now its great to able to meet you here in i3. i agree that jaya tiasa is an uptrending stock and its also a valuegrowth company. as far as plantations stocks are concern its jayatiasa and tsh , let hope over a short period of time, they can reduce palm oil high stockpiles thus will help in pushing up palm oil prices. please offer your views on when prices will be back to minimum rm3000 a ton, mr koon, what are your expectations on jtiasa or the performance for the following 3 three years. thank you in advance
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Posted by johnny cash > 2014-01-16 16:37 | Report Abuse
name some undervalue companies please