Posted by KClohWellHung > 2014-10-29 18:12 | Report Abuse

Walao chapter 10 still cannot up ?

Posted by Icon8888 > 2014-10-29 18:31 | Report Abuse

In part 4, I mentioned that I am targeting approximately 80% return in 3 years time. So your question is meaningless for me at this stage.

Please refer to below :

"To make sense of the whole thing, I always look 3 years ahead.

First of all, as a shareholder, I have expectation of RM60 mil net profit for GOB management to deliver. The RM60 mil is arrived at based on Hua Yang and Tambun's past records. These two companies grew their earnings from approximately RM30 mil to RM60 mil within three years. I think this will also be the likely scenario for a small cap company like GOB.

Based on RM60 mil net profit, and 8 times PE Multiple, market cap will be RM480 mil.

Number of shares will be 227 mil x 2 = 454 mil

Meaning targeted market price in three years time = 480 / 454 = RM1.06.

What is the expected market price of warrants ?

Based on 20% conversion premium, warrants price = RM(1.20 x 1.06) - 0.67 = 60 sen

Net worth in three years time = ( 2 x 1.06 ) + ( 0.5 x 0.6 ) = RM2.42

Original cost = RM1.34 (as per item 2 and 3 above)

Gain = 2.42 / 1.34 = 81%

Different people has different expectation. For me, I am ok with 81% gain within three years."

Posted by Icon8888 > 2014-10-29 18:34 | Report Abuse

On first look, 80% return over three years might not be much. But if you bet big, let's say RM10 million, you will be RM8 million richer in three years time.

For me, it is as simple as that (not that I have RM10 million)

Posted by Icon8888 > 2014-10-29 18:48 | Report Abuse

You only dare to bet big if you feel that the stock you invest in is something you understand and can have visibility. GOB happens to be something that fits the above criteria for me. That is why I choose to put big money there.

I could be right, I could be wrong in three years time. That is the inherent risk of stock market. Some time shxt does happen.

But for me, if GOB turns out to be a lemon in three years time, I will have no regret. I have tried my best. I cannot do any better than that

Posted by Ricky Kiat > 2014-10-29 19:42 | Report Abuse

still same boat with u, bought more at 0.90.

Posted by kancs3118 > 2014-10-29 20:14 | Report Abuse

Hi Icon8888, what is your average price? care to share???

Posted by Icon8888 > 2014-10-29 20:16 | Report Abuse

Lost track. Maybe RM1.00

Posted by KClohWellHung > 2014-10-29 20:44 | Report Abuse

Aiya Icon8888 everybody scoring big when market down and you targetting 3 years. Bery good investors lah you

Posted by Icon8888 > 2014-10-29 20:47 | Report Abuse

You are right. I always feel that I am not a very intelligent person, so I adopt the conservative approach to be safe. Hope you don't follow me and my dumb method

Posted by KClohWellHung > 2014-10-29 20:53 | Report Abuse

Tq sir Icon8888. Before you reach 3 years, I think 2015 will be forceful because Singapore want to push down the price of property further and this may pull the Singaporean out of Malaysia. If u are a true expert you would know market today has a large % of Singaporena owning malls here or have a stake in them and similarly residential property

Posted by Icon8888 > 2014-10-29 20:56 | Report Abuse

As I say, I am not very intelligent person. I don't know about the Singaporean investors. I don't know whether the commercial property market will survive. I am just a layman trying my luck in the market.

Posted by kancs3118 > 2014-10-29 22:03 | Report Abuse

@ Icon8888. My average price is RM1.07. Glad we are just RM0.07 cents difference. The past few weeks have been a real test of courage... have been reading all your articles over and over again just to be courageous.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2014-10-29 22:05 | Report Abuse

I know. I noticed you have been panicking. Cry mum cry dad, ha ha

Posted by ttgipoh > 2014-10-29 22:28 | Report Abuse

have conviction and faith in yr stock

Posted by kancs3118 > 2014-10-29 23:13 | Report Abuse

yes....but do you think my average price of RM1.07 is considered quite high?

Posted by Icon8888 > 2014-10-30 07:26 | Report Abuse

It is not high at all !! You have to look at it from a macro point of view. The reason I promoted this stock is because of its potential to double over next three years (and I was being conservative). If you are targeting 100% gain, why bother about a few percent higher cost of investment ?

Posted by Pika Chan > 2014-10-30 22:22 | Report Abuse

Icon8888 , one word of advice ... GDP doesn't equal to revenue , revenue doesn't equal to profit , profit doesn't equal to cold hard cash.

Posted by gohcheehoh > 2014-10-31 00:12 | Report Abuse

Base on the rev n profit trending. gob have 50% upside in 7 mths. Can come early if nov end n Feb end result can sustain.